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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 10, 2025

[ Monday, June 9, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, June 11, 2025 ]

DAY 253 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/11/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 69.25°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 51.69°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 60.47°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.962
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 533

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.21 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 52 in
SWE DAY: 160
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 435.56 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 22.56 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -32

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 1
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-11 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025253-3269.2499251.6900260.4699751.794515833333000.210.21FF37.24992533.24992160435.56183110964 22.5597141578040.9615620456384416 51411110DRYL
2025-06-11 00:00:01FORECAST2025253-3263.57244.65454.11350.175428000.210.21FF31.572527.572160434.8928434768221.8209345555860.87936503275064165141125DRYL
2025-06-10 12:00:01FORECAST2025253-3263.03244.81653.92453.217248000.210.21FF31.032527.032160436.1474202752423.2105654293480.86759528534211165141125DRYL
2025-06-10 08:00:01FORECAST2025253-3265.91245.01455.46353.064236000.210.21FF33.912529.912160436.0845428396123.1404930971930.92187020529939165141125DRYL
2025-06-10 04:00:03FORECAST2025253-3265.49845.19455.34652.70409655000.210.21FF33.498529.498160435.9364537478322.975636947990.91531508283396165141125DRYL
2025-06-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025253-3265.69645.15855.42748.3583936000.210.21FF33.696523.696160434.1387831086620.9942541505930.91849967900236165141125DRYL
2025-06-09 20:00:01FORECAST2025253-3265.4848.256.8455.8442136000.210.21FF33.48522.48160437.2231203788324.4163813252940.91502102539568165141125DRYL
2025-06-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025253-3265.42648.256.81355.8451976000.210.21FF33.426522.426160437.2235219676924.4168339796540.91413427667834165141125DRYL
2025-06-09 12:00:01FORECAST2025253-3265.22847.89456.56152.3082096000.210.21FF33.228522.228160435.7735089307322.7945320432760.91082378628904165141125DRYL
2025-06-09 08:00:01FORECAST2025253-3265.80448.5657.18252.1333528000.210.21FF33.804523.804160435.7014866827322.7145793207150.92019835488194165141125DRYL
2025-06-09 04:00:02FORECAST2025253-3265.42648.48856.95752.50569065000.210.21FF33.426523.426160435.8548114888822.8848579003490.91413427667834165141125DRYL
2025-06-09 00:00:01FORECAST2025253-3264.77847.82256.348.5786528000.210.21FF32.778516.778160434.2303750684721.0943266256650.90294958336491165141125DRYL
2025-06-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025253-3265.19248.1156.65156.0207832000.210.21FF33.192517.192160437.2951656789424.4976176709080.91021184293769165141125DRYL
2025-06-08 16:00:02FORECAST2025253-3265.1247.5756.34556.0847432000.210.21FF33.12517.12160437.3212551640724.5270502917790.90897863278321165141125DRYL
2025-06-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025253-3264.88647.2156.04852.5438192000.210.21FF32.886516.886160435.8705042410722.9023009694560.90488425207711165141125DRYL
2025-06-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025253-3265.17446.79655.98552.5235488000.210.21FF33.174519.174160435.8621616434722.8930275171540.90990470712458165141125DRYL
2025-06-08 04:00:03FORECAST2025253-3265.2146.43655.82352.050665716667000.210.21FF33.21519.21160435.667417331322.6767791031550.91051820237023165141125DRYL
2025-06-08 00:00:02FORECAST2025253-3264.68846.2255.45448.644168000.210.21FF32.688514.688160434.2576088368921.124100079540.90131549429654165141125DRYL
2025-06-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025253-3265.19246.05855.62554.438728000.210.21FF33.192516.192160436.6484895291423.7705883530880.91021184293769165141125DRYL
2025-06-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025253-3264.72446.02255.37354.2918168000.210.21FF32.724515.724160436.5883065826923.703172358010.90197152225331165141125DRYL
2025-06-07 12:00:03FORECAST2025253-3264.92245.80655.36451.4324112000.210.21FF32.922514.922160435.412452581122.3943123027520.90552280835376165141125DRYL
2025-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025253-3263.80647.26455.53551.3490664000.210.21FF31.806514.806160435.3780510098622.3562564504080.88423012743957165141125DRYL
2025-06-07 04:00:03FORECAST2025253-3264.41846.97655.69751.421003833333000.210.21FF32.418514.418160435.4077444831122.3891032981290.89629296657737165141125DRYL
2025-06-07 00:00:02FORECAST2025253-3263.60847.91255.7649.9753632000.210.21FF31.608511.608160434.809987961321.7297870713530.88012270646525165141125DRYL
2025-06-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025253-3263.78848.07455.93154.1912328000.210.21FF31.788511.788160436.5470888642623.6570249208050.8838608956777165141125DRYL
2025-06-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025253-3263.39248.79456.09354.1577768000.210.21FF31.392511.392160436.5333767952423.6416771862270.87552626402249165141125DRYL
2025-06-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025253-3260.94446.09453.51952.3444616000.210.21FF28.944505.944160435.788436863722.8111110991360.81483551796527164141124.5DRYL
2025-06-06 08:00:02FORECAST2025253-3261.84445.3253.58252.4712992000.210.21FF29.844506.844160435.8406555293422.8691254398040.83899629846739164141124.5DRYL
2025-06-06 04:00:03FORECAST2025253-3260.60244.99652.79952.232935816667000.210.21FF28.602505.602160435.7425081263422.7601104595560.80509404391457164141124.5DRYL
2025-06-06 00:00:02FORECAST2025253-3260.60244.4252.51150.4810608000.210.21FF28.602501.602160435.0193380186721.9602376516960.80509404391457164141124.5DRYL
2025-06-05 20:00:02FORECAST2025253-3260.60244.4252.51154.2817808000.210.21FF28.602501.602160436.5841944629323.6985675445810.80509404391457164141124.5DRYL
2025-06-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025253-3259.59445.51852.55653.9306896000.210.21FF27.594501.594160436.4402734383723.5375249157440.77462476150612164141124.5DRYL
2025-06-05 12:00:02FORECAST2025253-3257.32642.85450.0952.3740016000.210.21FF25.326498.326160435.8005998973522.8246213163050.69713403874647163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-05 08:00:03FORECAST2025253-3258.58644.94251.76451.9354328000.210.21FF26.586501.586160435.6199262659722.6241094069270.74163214865439164141124.5DRYL
2025-06-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025253-3259.28844.97852.13351.708171616667000.210.21FF27.288502.288160435.5262241216722.5202647404420.76486862853598164141124.5DRYL
2025-06-05 00:00:02FORECAST2025253-3259.52244.65452.08851.805112000.210.21FF27.522499.522160435.5662002630722.5645557880430.77235000467251164141124.5DRYL
2025-06-04 20:00:02FORECAST2025253-3258.40644.18651.29654.2119368000.210.21FF26.406497.406160436.5555738938523.6665231816210.73548829404109164131124DRYL
2025-06-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025253-3258.1943.80850.99954.1967832000.210.21FF26.19496.19160436.5493636041423.6595712153520.72801891805244164131124DRYL
2025-06-04 12:00:02FORECAST2025253-3257.72242.99850.3652.4846232000.210.21FF25.722501.722160435.8461400044422.8752204313080.71148421020683164141124.5DRYL
2025-06-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025253-3259.50443.59251.54852.20192000.210.21FF27.504504.504160435.7297328276522.745928654690.77177930594333164141124.5DRYL
2025-06-04 04:00:04FORECAST2025253-3259.41444.49251.95352.439719316667000.210.21FF27.414503.414160435.8276557573822.8546799383580.76891380030806164141124.5DRYL
2025-06-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025253-3259.43243.95251.69253.2191992000.210.21FF27.432496.432160436.148221926823.2114591034480.76948849997236164131124DRYL
2025-06-03 20:00:03FORECAST2025253-3259.64844.61852.13355.7946816000.210.21FF27.648494.648160437.2029041432424.3935968312680.77632236450282164131124DRYL
2025-06-03 16:00:02FORECAST2025253-3258.94644.651.77355.7565024000.210.21FF26.946495.946160437.1873197597424.3760358434340.75369459911716164131124DRYL
2025-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025253-3258.40641.19849.80254.65334000.210.21FF26.406496.406160436.7363661088523.8691011073110.73548829404109164131124DRYL
2025-06-03 08:00:02FORECAST2025253-3257.4741.3649.41554.7402272000.210.21FF25.47498.47160436.7719299488523.9089946799830.7023891947835164131124DRYL
2025-06-03 04:00:04FORECAST2025253-3257.7441.23449.48755.102806083333000.210.21FF25.74495.74160436.9202525941824.0755319525780.71212881648538164131124DRYL
2025-06-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025253-3259.91846.38253.1557.6099064000.210.21FF27.918486.918160437.9421201312225.2298045493770.7847007169699164131124DRYL
2025-06-02 20:00:03FORECAST2025253-3261.80846.65254.2359.3203544000.220.22FF29.808491.808160438.6355557864426.0200166216930.83807114519784164131124DRYL
2025-06-02 16:00:03FORECAST2025253-3260.9846.11253.54659.3913992000.220.22FF28.98489.98160438.6642930663826.0528861442910.8158430851286164131124DRYL
2025-06-02 12:00:03FORECAST2025253-3263.33848.32655.83257.1130456000.210.21FF31.338501.338160437.740121621925.0006715271410.87435820739351165141125DRYL
2025-06-02 08:00:03FORECAST2025253-3263.33848.32655.83257.2703872000.210.21FF31.338499.338160437.8041163546325.0732112613840.87435820739351165141125DRYL
2025-06-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025253-3262.648.1155.35556.583804583333000.210.21FF30.6500.6160437.5246783779324.7568109017230.85762845806837165141125DRYL
2025-06-02 00:00:03FORECAST2025253-3261.30444.65452.97959.677468000.210.21FF29.304486.304160438.779954054526.1852766671290.82475735819563164131124DRYL
2025-06-01 20:00:03FORECAST2025253-3264.5846.59855.58960.9930368000.210.21FF32.58494.58160439.3107734366826.794898170860.89932820435062165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-01 16:00:03FORECAST2025253-3262.20442.58452.39462.1386096000.210.21FF30.204487.204160439.7715585067527.3267931872340.84805820296284164131124DRYL
2025-06-01 12:00:03FORECAST2025253-3264.38245.26654.82462.7445568000.210.21FF32.382476.382160440.0147477271227.6085303316020.89560957453415165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-01 08:00:03FORECAST2025253-3264.38245.26654.82463.3296432000.210.21FF32.382469.382160440.2492098098627.880825376340.89560957453415165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-01 04:00:05FORECAST2025253-3260.13427.44643.7964.637430266667000.210.21FF28.134461.134160440.7720221033628.4903708422040.79127053895622164131124DRYL
2025-06-01 00:00:03FORECAST2025253-3247.40828.09437.75167.5757216000.230.23FF15.408431.408160441.94034388629.8644376422490.29999601894593162131123DRYL
2025-05-31 20:00:02FORECAST2025253-3247.46228.09437.77871.2608216000.250.25FF15.462430.462160443.3933395450931.5965736679510.30196892871809162131123DRYL
2025-05-31 16:00:03FORECAST2025253-3245.19430.6537.92271.760792000.250.25FF13.194422.194160443.5894268530131.8323285937980.22460412884581161131122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 12:00:03FORECAST2025253-3234.62828.09431.36170.3491456000.240.24FF2.628417.628160443.0351405361131.1671436074910.030909018006693161131122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 08:00:05FORECAST2025253-3234.62828.09431.36169.6627072000.220.22FF2.628422.628160442.7648898329730.8442008788740.030909018006693161131122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 04:00:05FORECAST2025253-3249.69446.92248.30868.2740362000.220.22FF17.694445.694160442.2167273186430.1919208491980.38798937828886162131123DRYL