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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, June 9, 2025

[ Sunday, June 8, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, June 10, 2025 ]

DAY 252 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/10/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 74.65°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 56.23°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 65.44°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.991
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 43
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 515

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.21 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 56 in
SWE DAY: 159
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 436.55 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 24.31 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -33

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 1
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-10 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025252-3374.6499256.2299865.4399555.68394375000.210.21FF42.64992514.64992159436.54571506955 24.3085870422360.991253180617616 51411110DRYL
2025-06-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025252-3369.33250.82860.0851.4003312000.210.21FF37.332509.332159434.7805342988622.3478634622740.965638079674051651411110DRYL
2025-06-09 12:00:01FORECAST2025252-3368.43250.61259.52255.4670464000.210.21FF36.432508.432159436.4567973938624.2089694326410.957852316901541651411110DRYL
2025-06-09 08:00:01FORECAST2025252-3369.3550.91860.13455.3935416000.210.21FF37.35509.35159436.4266527801124.1752179461240.965780872376611651411110DRYL
2025-06-09 04:00:02FORECAST2025252-3369.24251.20660.22455.77119305000.210.21FF37.242509.242159436.5814693505624.3486694092030.964916775191921651411110DRYL
2025-06-09 00:00:01FORECAST2025252-3370.39451.2660.82751.7593344000.210.21FF38.394503.394159434.9292099440922.5116464178240.973267276711551651411110DRYL
2025-06-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025252-3370.39452.68261.53859.2093368000.210.21FF38.394503.394159437.984112074225.932748804850.973267276711551651411110DRYL
2025-06-08 16:00:02FORECAST2025252-3369.96253.04261.50259.2167168000.210.21FF37.962502.962159437.9871097014125.9361586372390.970353745796021651411110DRYL
2025-06-08 12:00:01FORECAST2025252-3370.0752.91661.49355.6597536000.210.21FF38.07503.07159436.535800676724.2974751032440.971105705946411651411110DRYL
2025-06-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025252-3370.08852.21461.15155.6173432000.210.21FF38.088505.088159436.5184171990224.2779946224790.971229482212351651411110DRYL
2025-06-08 04:00:03FORECAST2025252-3369.9852.03461.00755.127928916667000.210.21FF37.98504.98159436.3176770262924.053289884190.97048018557171651411110DRYL
2025-06-08 00:00:02FORECAST2025252-3369.47651.49460.48551.668492000.210.21FF37.476501.476159434.8916017748622.4701932471710.966766857985341651411110DRYL
2025-06-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025252-3369.76451.8960.82757.5190416000.210.21FF37.764501.764159437.2960612629625.15285033930.968933099826471651411110DRYL
2025-06-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025252-3369.72852.50261.11557.3896456000.210.21FF37.728501.728159437.2432675592625.0932361662120.968668860356711651411110DRYL
2025-06-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025252-3369.40452.55660.9854.5057384000.210.21FF37.404501.404159436.0621162678823.7678876354480.966206334849951651411110DRYL
2025-06-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025252-3369.00853.20461.10654.4492568000.210.21FF37.008502.008159436.0388968113123.7419938672680.962983267851631651411110DRYL
2025-06-07 04:00:03FORECAST2025252-3369.1753.0661.11554.524047833333000.210.21FF37.17501.17159436.0696425191323.7762820473770.964330853176331651411110DRYL
2025-06-07 00:00:02FORECAST2025252-3369.36852.80861.08853.0588256000.210.21FF37.368499.368159435.466242096623.1053273940910.965923178372031651411110DRYL
2025-06-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025252-3369.2652.91661.08857.2877824000.210.21FF37.26499.26159437.2016950588925.0463155714450.965062018730581651411110DRYL
2025-06-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025252-3369.87253.5161.69157.2845352000.210.21FF37.872498.872159437.200369631825.0448199636260.96971480627072165131119DRYL
2025-06-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025252-3369.18853.09661.14255.2208904000.210.21FF37.188496.188159436.355825690624.0959572258620.96447807817104165131119DRYL
2025-06-06 08:00:01FORECAST2025252-3368.16252.21460.18855.3370024000.210.21FF36.162496.162159436.403461997324.1492594239130.95525708624482165131119DRYL
2025-06-06 04:00:03FORECAST2025252-3367.89252.32260.10755.032612616667000.210.21FF35.892495.892159436.2785526603224.0095485815150.95253511419885165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-06 00:00:02FORECAST2025252-3368.59453.11460.85453.3222624000.210.21FF36.594491.594159435.5748949557923.2258388436850.95935024981859165131119DRYL
2025-06-05 20:00:02FORECAST2025252-3368.59453.94261.26857.1229824000.210.21FF36.594491.594159437.1344139533424.9704214346910.95935024981859165131119DRYL
2025-06-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025252-3368.77454.69861.73656.7591976000.210.21FF36.774492.774159436.9857957468324.8029631291880.96096379292507165131119DRYL
2025-06-05 12:00:02FORECAST2025252-3367.56852.39459.98154.9316144000.210.21FF35.568491.568159436.2370857076623.9632073790730.94909595174304165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025252-3368.07252.7960.43154.6373000.210.21FF36.072494.072159436.1161880262423.8282110000460.95436403786239165131119DRYL
2025-06-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025252-3368.05452.39460.22454.449005216667000.210.21FF36.054494.054159436.0387933785323.7418785353360.95418372553103165131119DRYL
2025-06-05 00:00:02FORECAST2025252-3367.152.19659.64854.5443712000.210.21FF35.1491.1159436.0779962052523.7856000971710.94378257654959165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-04 20:00:02FORECAST2025252-3366.81251.06258.93756.8457112000.210.21FF34.812489.812159437.0211518804724.8427781880880.94030213062495165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-04 16:00:02FORECAST2025252-3366.4750.6358.5556.7897216000.210.21FF34.47489.47159436.9982710959524.817010155220.93595310243999165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-04 12:00:02FORECAST2025252-3367.20852.0759.63955.0970448000.210.21FF35.208495.208159436.3050010977324.0391161919460.94504586645587165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025252-3367.67651.81859.74754.94236000.210.21FF35.676495.676159436.2414980465823.9681374326140.95026365751526165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-04 04:00:04FORECAST2025252-3367.3751.58459.47755.159003316667000.210.21FF35.37495.37159436.3304300502824.0675516383060.94689875406525165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-04 00:00:02FORECAST2025252-3367.49651.31459.40555.8716696000.210.21FF35.496488.496159436.6226342701824.3948355618250.94830546953338165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-03 20:00:03FORECAST2025252-3365.53450.61258.07358.4583696000.210.21FF33.534485.534159437.6787883409325.5859883749140.92279396371887165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-03 16:00:02FORECAST2025252-3365.49850.3657.92958.4076936000.210.21FF33.498488.498159437.6581638134925.5626039335570.92224973159386165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025252-3365.06648.07456.5757.1076328000.210.21FF33.066489.066159437.1281459050624.9633536428910.91549080919695165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-03 08:00:02FORECAST2025252-3364.97646.52655.75157.062172000.210.21FF32.976491.976159437.1095804377524.9424220617870.91402899351398165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-03 04:00:04FORECAST2025252-3364.70646.65255.67957.478280483333000.210.21FF32.706488.706159437.2794325566225.1340698740820.9095304613793165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025252-3362.8749.47856.17460.3077392000.210.21FF30.87477.87159438.4296463453426.4407007693430.87425422252828165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-02 20:00:02FORECAST2025252-3363.30251.06257.18262.197964000.220.22FF31.302481.302159439.1934557244427.3169387481840.88330941283871165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-02 16:00:03FORECAST2025252-3363.21251.15257.18262.2012112000.220.22FF31.212480.212159439.1947647128527.3184463178380.88146199110106165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-02 12:00:03FORECAST2025252-3368.28853.79861.04360.2536784000.210.21FF36.288489.288159438.4077472608126.4156794115210.9564837278828165131119DRYL
2025-06-02 08:00:03FORECAST2025252-3369.81853.6961.75460.41102000.210.21FF37.818486.818159438.4714752318326.4885090596590.96932600926138165131119DRYL
2025-06-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025252-3370.26854.562.38459.723551783333000.210.21FF38.268489.268159438.192842842226.1704329405720.97244323132596165131119DRYL
2025-06-02 00:00:03FORECAST2025252-3366.34448.8357.58762.4896416000.210.21FF34.344476.344159439.3109916857627.4523864213840.93429032529959165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-01 20:00:03FORECAST2025252-3368.95450.9959.97264.1415416000.210.21FF36.954480.954159439.9750095442928.2206753776460.96252495822782165131119DRYL
2025-06-01 16:00:03FORECAST2025252-3365.33646.41855.87764.8534656000.210.21FF33.336476.336159440.2603252011628.5524078554780.91976472494433165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-01 12:00:03FORECAST2025252-3362.52843.84453.18665.7049208000.210.21FF30.528462.528159440.6008835332328.9496461569610.8667471562257165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025252-3362.52843.84453.18666.2900072000.210.21FF30.528455.528159440.8344751950729.222920534690.8667471562257165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-01 04:00:05FORECAST2025252-3361.66442.45852.06166.686807066667000.210.21FF29.664451.664159440.9926973392929.4083949252740.84643335002622164131124DRYL
2025-06-01 00:00:03FORECAST2025252-3361.91644.07852.99767.9760128000.230.23FF29.916434.916159441.5056629240930.01179459420.8525588277536165131124.5DRYL
2025-05-31 20:00:02FORECAST2025252-3361.93444.13253.03371.662392000.250.25FF29.934433.934159442.9632116979231.7438033182760.85299002579551165131124.5DRYL
2025-05-31 16:00:02FORECAST2025252-3360.842.5351.66572.1287096000.250.25FF28.8427.8159443.1466174275631.9635936786550.82417355552292164131124DRYL
2025-05-31 12:00:03FORECAST2025252-3361.32237.23849.2870.374336000.240.24FF29.322434.322159442.4554807488531.1375106672610.83785508044154164131124DRYL
2025-05-31 08:00:04FORECAST2025252-3360.83637.23849.03769.6878976000.220.22FF28.836438.836159442.1842184962530.8148885389020.82513989055081164131124DRYL
2025-05-31 04:00:05FORECAST2025252-3363.5944.70854.14968.5414874000.220.22FF31.59446.59159441.7301317266230.2768402579410.88908411375968165131124.5DRYL
2025-05-31 00:00:04FORECAST2025252-3351.38644.5147.94866.4659664000.250.25FF19.386426.386159440.9046578055229.3051541713050.48116348782708162131123DRYL
2025-05-30 20:00:03FORECAST2025252-3350.07245.87847.97571.3154928000.250.25FF18.072429.072159442.8266330176931.5803995586210.42708011005456162131123DRYL
2025-05-30 16:00:03FORECAST2025252-3354.91447.19251.05370.8960136000.250.25FF22.914434.914159442.6613178316731.3829228091880.62531595712082163131123.5DRYL
2025-05-30 12:00:03FORECAST2025252-3353.09648.36250.72970.5960904000.260.26FF21.096415.096159442.54301118131.2418064232220.55191708702946163131123.5DRYL
2025-05-30 08:00:03FORECAST2025252-3353.09648.36250.72971.4409528000.260.26FF21.096410.096159442.8760421264531.6394864218060.55191708702946163131123.5DRYL
2025-05-30 04:00:04FORECAST2025252-3339.4738.15638.81372.468838466667000.260.26FF7.47395.47159443.2802553677932.1240052217110.099167881110074161121122DRYL