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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 5, 2025

[ Wednesday, June 4, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, June 6, 2025 ]

DAY 248 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/06/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 63.12°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.61°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.86°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.791
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 31
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 401

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.16 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.16 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 68 in
SWE DAY: 155
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 439.01 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 29.74 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -37

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-06 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025248-3763.1200238.6099650.8649967.737725416667001.161.16FF31.12002401.12002155439.01417389737 29.7378215654850.7914439410325716 4131124DRYL
2025-06-06 00:00:01FORECAST2025248-3755.79636.10445.9566.0879896001.161.16FF23.796393.796155438.3469931394528.9694715237910.56286139723722163121123DRYL
2025-06-05 12:00:02FORECAST2025248-3756.42636.42846.42767.9893928001.161.16FF24.426394.426155439.1157068476629.8552102775150.58488677324392163121123DRYL
2025-06-05 08:00:01FORECAST2025248-3758.20836.82447.51667.9356664001.161.16FF26.208396.208155439.0940368616429.8301460064610.64554875742386163121123DRYL
2025-06-05 04:00:03FORECAST2025248-3757.84836.42847.13867.606561216667001.161.16FF25.848395.848155438.9612311427629.6766593449960.63353302590956163121123DRYL
2025-06-05 00:00:01FORECAST2025248-3758.94636.98647.96667.6606976001.161.16FF26.946392.946155438.9830847403229.701901748130.66972238833591163121123DRYL
2025-06-04 20:00:01FORECAST2025248-3758.83836.62647.73269.8028264001.161.16FF26.838393.838155439.8454047407930.7024524299590.6662257645883163121123DRYL
2025-06-04 16:00:02FORECAST2025248-3759.01837.68848.35369.7563816001.161.16FF27.018394.018155439.8267579732130.680723167070.67204529340986163121123DRYL
2025-06-04 12:00:02FORECAST2025248-3759.70238.06648.88468.4759024001.161.16FF27.702394.702155439.3118008733330.082271999770.69377158532986163121123DRYL
2025-06-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025248-3759.43238.24648.83968.46744001.161.16FF27.432394.432155439.3083920632830.0783209750890.68527098401264163121123DRYL
2025-06-04 04:00:03FORECAST2025248-3759.39638.04848.72268.632521716667001.161.16FF27.396394.396155439.3748767837530.1554057726180.6841299886296163121123DRYL
2025-06-04 00:00:02FORECAST2025248-3758.80237.72448.26369.1904048001.161.16FF26.802388.802155439.5993514539930.4160570769190.66505699123785163121123DRYL
2025-06-03 20:00:02FORECAST2025248-3758.74837.72448.23671.49204001.161.16FF26.748388.748155440.522101432931.4938236965250.66330083482332163121123DRYL
2025-06-03 16:00:01FORECAST2025248-3758.69438.19248.44371.4494328001.161.16FF26.694389.694155440.50506871531.4738373052110.66154111240327163121123DRYL
2025-06-03 12:00:02FORECAST2025248-3758.9137.86848.38970.1398272001.161.16FF26.91390.91155439.9806387472130.8601659730750.66855847288993163121123DRYL
2025-06-03 08:00:01FORECAST2025248-3759.55838.80449.18169.9798288001.161.16FF27.558393.558155439.9164479180230.7852777116070.68925051221072163121123DRYL
2025-06-03 04:00:03FORECAST2025248-3758.2838.44448.36270.295470883333001.161.16FF26.28392.28155440.0430574519330.9330339325250.64793507270321163121123DRYL
2025-06-03 00:00:02FORECAST2025248-3757.72239.41648.56972.6224992001.161.16FF25.722388.722155440.9733428881132.0245862411130.62929570256857163121123DRYL
2025-06-02 20:00:02FORECAST2025248-3757.54239.32648.43474.750360.0003937010.0103937011.161.170393701FF25.542389.542155441.8192069089533.0261447713580.62321520747043163121123DRYL
2025-06-02 16:00:02FORECAST2025248-3757.39839.32648.36274.700372800.011.161.17FF25.398391.398155441.799388464633.0025790211180.61832863370333163121123DRYL
2025-06-02 12:00:02FORECAST2025248-3757.68639.03848.36273.6245656001.161.16FF25.686390.686155441.3722523739532.4958403489260.62808212783981163121123DRYL
2025-06-02 08:00:02FORECAST2025248-3757.61438.91248.26373.8683024001.161.16FF25.614386.614155441.469127377332.610575001370.62565116951936163121123DRYL
2025-06-02 04:00:03FORECAST2025248-3757.5638.89448.22773.272641383333001.161.16FF25.56387.56155441.2322716211232.3302540052480.62382466215785163121123DRYL
2025-06-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025248-3757.18237.81447.49874.9889016001.161.16FF25.182383.182155441.9137469411233.1386264850550.61096351986251163121123DRYL
2025-06-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025248-3757.81240.35249.08276.5017624001.161.16FF25.812386.812155442.5119999001733.8529478755120.63232399543119163121123DRYL
2025-06-01 16:00:02FORECAST2025248-3758.06439.57848.82176.4158592001.161.16FF26.064388.064155442.4780914518133.8123435354660.64075903887854163121123DRYL
2025-06-01 12:00:02FORECAST2025248-3757.70439.32648.51575.539312001.161.16FF25.704386.704155442.131669970933.3983221630130.62868907507042163121123DRYL
2025-06-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025248-3756.62437.74247.18375.7421144001.161.16FF24.624383.624155442.2118883937333.4940634397580.59175769094182163121123DRYL
2025-06-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025248-3756.1239.25447.68775.850208666667001.161.16FF24.12383.12155442.2546281664833.5451058302260.5742175643215163121123DRYL
2025-06-01 00:00:02FORECAST2025248-3754.91438.69646.80576.4705896001.171.17FF22.914373.914155442.4996959602933.8382126479040.53171096063423163121123DRYL
2025-05-31 20:00:02FORECAST2025248-3755.18438.08446.63480.1876696001.191.19FF23.184373.184155443.9599853567735.6001166214090.54127643759549163121123DRYL
2025-05-31 16:00:02FORECAST2025248-3754.01438.24646.1380.3003376001.191.19FF22.014370.014155444.0040331022235.6536737538690.49972466096609163121123DRYL
2025-05-31 12:00:02FORECAST2025248-3752.89836.15844.52879.2312216001.191.19FF20.898366.898155443.5855522485835.1458251887660.46008696830796162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 08:00:03FORECAST2025248-3753.4235.92444.67278.6963192001.171.17FF21.42370.42155443.3757501089234.8920395561110.4786018854829162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 04:00:04FORECAST2025248-3755.45436.28445.86977.7251594001.171.17FF23.454379.454155442.9941075361834.431787621510.55081807357743163121123DRYL
2025-05-31 00:00:03FORECAST2025248-3752.8837.38245.13173.341076001.181.18FF20.88369.88155441.259501854132.3624466612040.45944983210999162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025248-3752.6138.53445.57278.9118744001.181.18FF20.61370.61155443.4603305566734.9942859062710.44990619189023162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 16:00:03FORECAST2025248-3751.33238.44444.88878.7542376001.181.18FF19.332370.332155443.3984809220634.9195093180150.40521550060927162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 12:00:03FORECAST2025248-3748.79438.62443.70976.14191440.035433090.035433091.171.20543309FF16.794366.794155442.3699081780733.682891681630.32053193601243162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 08:00:02FORECAST2025248-3747.1235.38441.25276.74618880.035433090.035433091.171.20543309FF15.12364.12155442.6084415203733.9685110173960.26910886132286162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 04:00:04FORECAST2025248-3746.59836.06841.33377.2142768666670.031496080.031496081.181.21149608FF14.598360.598155442.7929647232434.1899385727530.25396353205658162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 00:00:02FORECAST2025248-3747.4835.2441.3680.17310720.1862205730.1862205731.21.386220573FF15.48351.48155443.9542912418435.5931949836320.2798113403227162122125DRYL
2025-05-29 20:00:03FORECAST2025248-3746.07634.62840.35282.8805229604850.1862205730.1862205731.21.386220573FF14.076349.076155445.0093188550336.8826050689940.23927721317493161122124DRYL
2025-05-29 16:00:03FORECAST2025248-3745.71635.13240.42483.0023258064340.1874016760.1874016761.21.387401676FF13.716348.716155445.0566127397936.9407339729360.22942504619828161122124DRYL
2025-05-29 12:00:02FORECAST2025248-3749.94635.25842.60281.4218670623580.0330708840.0330708841.241.273070884FF17.946354.946155444.4418103684136.1872820007710.35812540230701162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 08:00:02FORECAST2025248-3751.58437.52644.55580.6187220515890.0330708840.0330708841.231.263070884FF19.584361.584155444.1284379234435.8050670921560.413949590953162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 04:00:04FORECAST2025248-3748.66837.79643.23280.5523999333330.0665354690.0665354691.211.276535469FF16.668358.668155444.102531663935.7735247419960.31652122010266162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 00:00:03FORECAST2025248-3751.85436.66244.25879.366444001.191.19FF19.854345.854155443.6385447432835.2100137176090.42335489077264162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025248-3749.94638.01243.97984.677624510502001.231.23FF17.946348.946155445.7056190702237.7412930538480.35812540230701162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025248-3748.88438.60643.74584.811348098617001.231.23FF16.884345.884155445.7573043179937.8052779040140.32340964418071162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-28 12:00:03FORECAST2025248-3741.2732.10836.68983.1668655706220.1342520410.1742520411.261.434252041FF9.27338.27155445.120477383237.019274905260.12766731606751161122124DRYL
2025-05-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025248-3741.2732.10836.68983.0985907774390.1342520410.1742520411.251.424252041FF9.27341.27155445.0939803703536.9866825322970.12766731606751161122124DRYL
2025-05-28 04:00:04FORECAST2025248-3741.07233.9837.52682.7976297944020.1267717220.2567717221.341.596771722FF9.072341.072155444.9771245406536.8430512246940.12401122788101161122124DRYL
2025-05-28 00:00:03FORECAST2025248-3745.21236.91441.06380.377008225890.0094488240.0594488241.331.389448824FF13.212335.212155444.0340004064235.6901245032410.21602135663215161121122DRYL
2025-05-27 20:00:03FORECAST2025248-3745.55436.78841.17184.7254950354030.0094488240.0694488241.341.409448824FF13.554335.554155445.7241234324637.7641970070360.2250667265703161121122DRYL
2025-05-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025248-3746.86836.96841.91884.7447490302570.0074803190.1674803191.41.567480319FF14.868334.868155445.7315654340937.7734096475750.26174117863965162122125DRYL
2025-05-27 12:00:03FORECAST2025248-3757.32640.67649.00180.3810026222590.0019685050.1419685051.281.421968505FF25.326353.326155444.0355614870535.6920236322670.61587820421027163122126DRYL
2025-05-27 08:00:03FORECAST2025248-3757.32640.56848.94780.7968192087010.0015748040.1415748041.281.421574804FF25.326351.326155444.1979833384835.8897841526690.61587820421027163122126DRYL
2025-05-27 04:00:04FORECAST2025248-3753.4239.05646.23881.6856347245340.0015748040.1015748041.261.361574804FF21.42346.42155444.5445882976336.3129068584490.4786018854829162122125DRYL
2025-05-27 00:00:03FORECAST2025248-3735.85231.133.47684.7468120793380.0070866180.1570866181.411.567086618FF3.852326.852155445.7323628166137.7743967892980.052431320708684161122124DRYL
2025-05-26 20:00:03FORECAST2025248-3735.81633.13434.47585.7708893328260.0070866180.1570866181.391.547086618FF3.816333.816155446.1276602750338.2647661777620.052087190807852161122124DRYL
2025-05-26 16:00:03FORECAST2025248-3744.09634.44839.27285.62200159566500.181.361.54FF12.096339.096155446.0702529385438.1934279088820.1880068817508161122124DRYL
2025-05-26 12:00:03FORECAST2025248-3738.42635.92437.17581.44902240.2413387130.2513387131.171.421338713FF6.426370.426155444.4523947141336.2002130528040.082031598230685161122124DRYL
2025-05-26 08:00:03FORECAST2025248-3738.42635.92437.17581.60478960.2413387130.2513387131.231.481338713FF6.426367.426155444.5130940492436.2743975143330.082031598230685161122124DRYL
2025-05-26 04:00:04FORECAST2025248-3744.58241.88243.23280.065924083333001.321.32FF12.582381.582155443.9123745689135.5422544818860.19992076240475161121122DRYL