MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 1, 2025

[ Saturday, May 31, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, June 2, 2025 ]

DAY 244 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/02/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.69°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.69°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.19°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.484
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 324

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.20 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 80 in
SWE DAY: 151
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 441.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 35.11 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -41

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-02 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025244-4151.6900232.6899442.1899879.54544458333300.012.22.21FF19.69002323.69002151441.34705448419 35.1071476644890.483684929847616 2121122.5DRYL
2025-06-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025244-4147.85831.62239.7481.108692800.012.22.21FF15.858319.858151441.9674390307535.8474012399480.34410429262937162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-01 12:00:02FORECAST2025244-4149.20831.83840.52381.96532400.012.22.21FF17.208321.208151442.3063549929636.2537836942570.39191690036818162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-01 08:00:01FORECAST2025244-4148.90231.96440.43381.97516400.012.22.21FF16.902320.902151442.3102437896936.258454773540.38090529361246162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-01 04:00:03FORECAST2025244-4148.88431.67640.2881.82938626666700.012.22.21FF16.884320.884151442.2526220565436.1892606377110.38026044854178162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-01 00:00:02FORECAST2025244-4148.9231.80240.36182.423199200.022.22.22FF16.92312.92151442.487205684836.471211097610.38155046952181162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 20:00:01FORECAST2025244-4148.61431.58640.186.028890400.042.22.24FF16.614313.614151443.9040489173138.1885727724240.37062860571984162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 16:00:01FORECAST2025244-4148.2931.02839.65986.051325600.042.22.24FF16.29313.29151443.9128241893838.1992869723360.35917697757303162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 12:00:01FORECAST2025244-4148.43431.22639.8384.3604200.042.22.24FF16.434313.434151443.250042361437.3927597386260.36425169512633162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 08:00:02FORECAST2025244-4149.17231.71240.44284.206030400.022.22.22FF17.172315.172151443.1893845521637.3192187885560.39061672554226162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 04:00:04FORECAST2025244-4150.34231.80241.07283.750486600.022.22.22FF18.342317.342151443.0102681934337.1023255299960.43341738712193162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 00:00:02FORECAST2025244-4150.55831.76641.16279.438727200.032.22.23FF18.558308.558151441.3046131537535.0566767764220.44142124325761162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 20:00:01FORECAST2025244-4150.55832.37841.46885.005392800.032.22.23FF18.558308.558151443.50318729137.7001626437240.44142124325761162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 16:00:02FORECAST2025244-4150.84632.64841.74784.985319200.032.22.23FF18.846308.846151443.4953148686737.6905908978180.45212981291017162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 12:00:02FORECAST2025244-4150.8133.56642.18882.357940800.022.22.22FF18.81308.81151442.4614428943336.4402133201740.45078917201433162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 08:00:01FORECAST2025244-4150.43233.33241.88282.289159200.022.22.22FF18.432310.432151442.434284587936.4075452799910.43674920416485162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 04:00:03FORECAST2025244-4150.16233.27841.7282.70391446666700.032.22.23FF18.162309.162151442.5979781185636.6045853254370.42676815852675162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 00:00:02FORECAST2025244-4149.31633.06241.18985.119773600.052.22.25FF17.316303.316151443.5480372542537.7547085118060.39582461622629162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 20:00:02FORECAST2025244-4148.90232.7240.81187.43673816048500.052.22.25FF16.902303.902151444.4537447450738.8615857037220.38090529361246162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 16:00:02FORECAST2025244-4148.18232.25240.21787.55745860643400.052.22.25FF16.182303.182151444.5007887470838.919359411250.35538711370712162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 12:00:01FORECAST2025244-4147.71432.05439.88486.2506502623580.0031496080.0931496082.22.293149608FF15.714304.714151443.9907657996338.29449226070.33913317489829162122125DRYL
2025-05-29 08:00:02FORECAST2025244-4147.71432.32440.01986.0228500515890.003937010.083937012.22.28393701FF15.714304.714151443.9016862186238.1856881912320.33913317489829162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 04:00:03FORECAST2025244-4147.8431.42439.63285.75785833333300.082.182.26FF15.84305.84151443.797998301938.0591658669920.34348140667899162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025244-4147.19231.44239.31784.262139200.032.212.24FF15.192298.192151443.2114317736137.3459433591390.32135159122572162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025244-4146.27430.77638.52590.1016293105020.0066929170.0366929172.242.276692917FF14.274297.274151445.4888880633840.1392746542340.29107046808851162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025244-4146.00431.4638.73290.0236944986170.0066929170.0466929172.232.276692917FF14.004298.004151445.458714623440.1018392370030.28242443269168162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-28 12:00:02FORECAST2025244-4144.13229.31836.72587.729965616150.0070866180.0370866182.242.277086618FF12.132296.132151444.5679886192339.0019343556060.22610523832993161121122DRYL
2025-05-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025244-4143.6129.40836.50987.7332276229670.0074803190.0374803192.232.267480319FF11.61297.61151444.5692590459339.0034959980510.21161193930826161121122DRYL
2025-05-28 04:00:03FORECAST2025244-4143.6129.13836.37487.5308915972110.0035433090.0235433092.272.293543309FF11.61298.61151444.4904369878338.9066442559790.21161193930826161121122DRYL
2025-05-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025244-4143.35829.60636.48285.275344800.062.252.31FF11.358291.358151443.6090175142237.8289119249150.20481406318119161121122DRYL
2025-05-27 20:00:02FORECAST2025244-4144.40229.94837.17589.4341878492360.003937010.063937012.262.32393701FF12.402291.402151445.2302861632739.8188090488950.23381619486032161121122DRYL
2025-05-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025244-4143.82629.64236.73489.3450719407390.0212598540.0912598542.232.321259854FF11.826291.826151445.1957247892339.7760440590040.21754223993123161122124DRYL
2025-05-27 12:00:02FORECAST2025244-4141.23428.81435.02486.794354689950.0019685050.0619685052.232.291968505FF9.234294.234151444.2031691758538.5543274198490.15282010578858161121122DRYL
2025-05-27 08:00:02FORECAST2025244-4140.65828.45434.55687.0556585671990.0023622060.0623622062.232.292362206FF8.658292.658151444.3051457382338.6792770670370.14037616476645161121122DRYL
2025-05-27 04:00:04FORECAST2025244-4141.03629.76835.40287.3496983805490.0023622060.0123622062.282.292362206FF9.036293.036151444.4198169369638.8199369637820.14846269208461161121122DRYL
2025-05-27 00:00:02FORECAST2025244-4141.4532.01836.73488.7063751914490.0889764260.0889764262.232.318976426FF9.45291.45151444.9477931557239.4697058802780.15766917220473161121122DRYL
2025-05-26 20:00:02FORECAST2025244-4143.6133.29638.45389.6031228193550.0889764260.0889764262.212.298976426FF11.61300.61151445.2957818943339.8998926360190.21161193930826161121122DRYL
2025-05-26 16:00:02FORECAST2025244-4143.73633.45838.59789.6156119389560.0901575290.0901575292.182.270157529FF11.736297.736151445.3006227840739.9058878075930.21505972744483161122124DRYL
2025-05-26 12:00:03FORECAST2025244-4152.30441.03646.6787.77811040.0818898080.0818898082.142.221889808FF20.304308.304151444.5867380996139.0249837792840.5067154216638163121123DRYL
2025-05-26 08:00:02FORECAST2025244-4148.84839.23644.04288.00511920.082677210.082677212.22.28267721FF16.848304.848151444.6751134058639.1336863605570.37897175761539162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-26 04:00:03FORECAST2025244-4151.04440.5545.79787.1043776833330.0740157880.0740157882.252.324015788FF19.044309.044151444.3241513963438.7025786970540.45951269125263162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025244-4147.85836.19442.02688.1290640.0125984320.0125984322.262.272598432FF15.858287.858151444.7233440404139.1930520492320.34410429262937162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-25 20:00:03FORECAST2025244-4150.43235.56442.99892.13603040.0122047310.0122047312.242.252204731FF18.432289.432151446.2744226817241.1179537749450.43674920416485162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-25 16:00:03FORECAST2025244-4153.76238.04845.90592.32082560.0047244120.0047244122.212.214724412FF21.762288.762151446.3455759658341.2069920760730.56117538309333163121123DRYL
2025-05-25 12:00:03FORECAST2025244-4151.18839.23645.21289.8381936002.112.11FF19.188293.188151445.3868715911340.0127519969020.464890988167162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-25 08:00:03FORECAST2025244-4152.14239.3845.76188.1469928002.132.13FF20.142309.142151444.730319416639.2016402635570.50063780732699163121123DRYL
2025-05-25 04:00:03FORECAST2025244-4155.1340.74847.93987.87695525002.122.12FF23.13310.13151444.6252250030339.0723110006120.61125914465586163121123DRYL
2025-05-25 00:00:02FORECAST2025244-4160.67448.48854.58186.1494336002.112.11FF28.674312.674151443.9511921382138.2461437487510.78931285333486164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-24 20:00:03FORECAST2025244-4160.13447.71453.92490.7591984002.132.13FF28.134301.134151445.7432365183240.4552988386250.77434715953684164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-24 16:00:03FORECAST2025244-4159.57646.92253.24991.1029096002.122.12FF27.576300.576151445.876015428940.6206023264270.75827082244989164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-24 12:00:03FORECAST2025244-4156.80442.849.80289.3842552002.132.13FF24.804298.804151445.2109219990339.7948466697880.67004395983648163121123DRYL
2025-05-24 08:00:03FORECAST2025244-4156.49842.29649.39789.4747832002.152.15FF24.498299.498151445.2460274603839.8382917776790.65955767471846163121123DRYL
2025-05-24 04:00:05FORECAST2025244-4158.0144.22251.11689.269249155858002.152.15FF26.01300.01151445.1663126600239.7396624806420.71002506057045164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-24 00:00:03FORECAST2025244-4155.32838.51646.92290.218784924895002.12.1FF23.328288.328151445.5342350923140.1955573324710.61837782391678163121123DRYL
2025-05-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025244-4155.79640.87448.33590.792470637914002.092.09FF23.796297.796151445.756094968940.4712971641350.63504157409659163121123DRYL
2025-05-23 16:00:03FORECAST2025244-4156.69643.8850.28890.335196629736002.092.09FF24.696299.696151445.5792808147740.2514919465380.66635761513868163121123DRYL
2025-05-23 12:00:03FORECAST2025244-4161.742.00851.85489.481697397476002.142.14FF29.7302.7151445.2487083553139.8416101876670.81609137775708164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-23 08:00:03FORECAST2025244-4161.742.5352.11589.0995056002.142.14FF29.7303.7151445.1004475418839.658229818320.81609137775708164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-23 04:00:05FORECAST2025244-4155.52637.6746.59891.620363966667002.192.19FF23.526287.526151446.0756944832840.8696174852420.62545670068515163121123DRYL
2025-05-23 00:00:04FORECAST2025244-4152.50243.05247.77795.118208791203002.132.13FF20.502282.502151447.4186070467342.557656482140.51414135872072163121123DRYL
2025-05-22 20:00:03FORECAST2025244-4152.62843.05247.8495.5040472002.22.2FF20.628283.628151447.5660110178942.7443654413680.51886456559134163121123DRYL
2025-05-22 16:00:03FORECAST2025244-4159.0952.12455.60795.212488002.222.22FF27.09294.09151447.454638389742.6032693882230.74377817550497164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-22 12:00:03FORECAST2025244-4156.19249.31652.75496.466602648595002.412.41FF24.192295.192151447.933112266343.2105855541420.64894663057507163121123DRYL
2025-05-22 08:00:02FORECAST2025244-4156.19249.31652.75497.826057104704002.322.32FF24.192278.192151448.4500570544343.8701008900150.64894663057507163121123DRYL
2025-05-22 04:00:06FORECAST2025244-4137.1335.52836.32999.551106556394002.222.22FF5.13243.13151449.1034582264344.7087462247440.07913035655863161121122DRYL