Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 31, 2025

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DAY 243 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/01/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.29°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.19°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.74°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.737 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 26 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 307 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.07 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.31 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.38 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 83 in SWE DAY: 150 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 442.05 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 36.61 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -42 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-01 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2025	243	-42	58.29008	37.18994	47.74001	82.821356666667	0.0099999999999909	0.069999999999991	2.31	2.38	F	F	26.29008	307.29008	150	442.05320426387	36.611446095981	0.73711604138762	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2025-06-01 00:00:01	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	49.604	34.592	42.098	83.4168424	0.015354339	0.075354339	2.31	2.385354339	F	F	17.604	298.604	150	442.28874962416	36.894330922692	0.43670913649674	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2025-05-31 12:00:01	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	50.846	34.142	42.494	85.3052568	0.041732306	0.101732306	2.31	2.411732306	F	F	18.846	299.846	150	443.03336305643	37.793074806497	0.48172779482751	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2025-05-31 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	51.62	34.88	43.25	85.2311616	0.015354339	0.075354339	2.31	2.385354339	F	F	19.62	300.62	150	443.00421413251	37.757763764209	0.50993841540076	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-31 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	52.7	35.51	44.105	84.878249	0.018897648	0.078897648	2.31	2.388897648	F	F	20.7	301.7	150	442.86530360897	37.589631513183	0.54918816387113	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-31 00:00:01	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	52.484	35.312	43.898	80.5775104	0.030708678	0.090708678	2.31	2.400708678	F	F	20.484	293.484	150	441.16243980017	35.547771081088	0.54136425929934	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-30 20:00:01	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	52.736	35.384	44.06	86.1636592	0.028740173	0.088740173	2.31	2.398740173	F	F	20.736	292.736	150	443.37065746201	38.202438228837	0.55049037534703	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	52.898	34.988	43.943	86.1709408	0.029133874	0.089133874	2.31	2.399133874	F	F	20.898	292.898	150	443.37351549657	38.205912956142	0.55634340125631	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-30 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	53.114	35.492	44.303	83.5730824	0.023228359	0.083228359	2.31	2.393228359	F	F	21.114	293.114	150	442.35049163467	36.968594087065	0.56412814077121	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-30 08:00:01	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	53.492	35.654	44.573	83.4673024	0.024803163	0.084803163	2.31	2.394803163	F	F	21.492	295.492	150	442.30869279108	36.918313415342	0.57769007716549	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-30 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	52.97	35.87	44.42	83.878023266667	0.025590565	0.085590565	2.31	2.395590565	F	F	20.97	293.97	150	442.47092582832	37.113586611451	0.55894088384103	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-30 00:00:01	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	52.862	35.15	44.006	86.2423208	0.050393728	0.110393728	2.31	2.420393728	F	F	20.862	288.862	150	443.40152941213	38.239976942772	0.55504374453195	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	52.466	35.06	43.763	88.512545360485	0.048031522	0.108031522	2.31	2.418031522	F	F	20.466	290.466	150	444.2898611309	39.325226486552	0.54071150082575	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-29 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	52.448	34.43	43.439	88.540769806434	0.05118113	0.11118113	2.31	2.42118113	F	F	20.448	290.448	150	444.30087306127	39.338741326515	0.54005863258236	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-29 12:00:01	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	53.924	34.502	44.213	87.1575984	0.094094539	0.154094539	2.31	2.464094539	F	F	21.924	291.924	150	443.76029105808	38.677081233907	0.59307651427383	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-29 08:00:01	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	53.906	34.898	44.402	87.0046848	0.083464612	0.143464612	2.31	2.453464612	F	F	21.906	291.906	150	443.7004114834	38.604014446743	0.59243809791006	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-29 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	54.752	34.52	44.636	86.692756733333	0.079133901	0.119133901	2.31	2.429133901	F	F	22.752	292.752	150	443.57819115638	38.455016218132	0.62215042410316	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-29 00:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	55.544	34.43	44.987	85.1731264	0.025590565	0.095590565	2.31	2.405590565	F	F	23.544	285.544	150	442.98137935342	37.730109016515	0.64932974946528	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-28 20:00:01	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	54.752	34.502	44.627	90.9329512	0.033858286	0.133858286	2.31	2.443858286	F	F	22.752	285.752	150	445.23133330765	40.486199104376	0.62215042410316	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-28 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	55.904	35.582	45.743	90.8602336	0.040157502	0.130157502	2.31	2.440157502	F	F	23.904	286.904	150	445.20313238779	40.451260608206	0.66144536447313	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-28 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	57.236	33.314	45.275	88.3271224	0.033070884	0.133070884	2.31	2.443070884	F	F	25.236	287.236	150	444.21749766092	39.236453288118	0.70476049938383	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2025-05-28 08:00:01	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	57.434	33.602	45.518	88.291108	0.033070884	0.123070884	2.31	2.433070884	F	F	25.434	289.434	150	444.20343866879	39.219213777478	0.71097583120366	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2025-05-28 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	56.858	34.898	45.878	88.080822	0.023228359	0.133228359	2.33	2.463228359	F	F	24.858	289.858	150	444.12132334362	39.118571227834	0.69272739111073	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	56.732	34.916	45.824	85.8587584	0.061023655	0.171023655	2.31	2.481023655	F	F	24.732	282.732	150	443.25093616382	38.056975038663	0.68866893929629	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-27 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	55.166	33.818	44.492	90.1025736	0.062598459	0.182598459	2.31	2.492598459	F	F	23.166	282.166	150	444.90899098328	40.087445105372	0.63644309790092	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-27 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	56.192	34.178	45.185	89.9269296	0.071653582	0.161653582	2.31	2.471653582	F	F	24.192	283.192	150	444.84072099549	40.003160200174	0.67101976078406	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	57.128	34.232	45.68	87.257343304765	0.057480346	0.137480346	2.32	2.457480346	F	F	25.128	288.128	150	443.79933772409	38.724751170218	0.7013446167665	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2025-05-27 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	56.066	34.34	45.203	87.4746048	0.056299243	0.136299243	2.32	2.456299243	F	F	24.066	287.066	150	443.88435382048	38.82860842735	0.66684428697714	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-27 04:00:04	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	55.832	34.124	44.978	87.763141175927	0.012204731	0.132204731	2.33	2.462204731	F	F	23.832	286.832	150	443.99718782402	38.966587876714	0.65903507527317	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	59.468	42.836	51.152	89.293116	0.00393701	0.16393701	2.24	2.40393701	F	F	27.468	285.468	150	444.59411447078	39.699193836357	0.77100023305262	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2025-05-26 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	59.972	43.844	51.908	90.5579104	0	0.14	2.24	2.38	F	F	27.972	291.972	150	445.0858312894	40.306042830215	0.78471488821467	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2025-05-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	58.244	45.176	51.71	90.576508	0	0.11	2.24	2.35	F	F	26.244	289.244	150	445.09304973994	40.314974180514	0.73574034548633	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2025-05-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	60.008	44.996	52.502	89.7098992	0	0.07	2.24	2.31	F	F	28.008	291.008	150	444.75632270301	39.89904487825	0.78567595559449	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2025-05-26 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	60.512	44.06	52.286	89.6104168	0	0.1	2.27	2.37	F	F	28.512	290.512	150	444.71762065807	39.851331345474	0.79886722593044	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2025-05-26 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	61.7	45.41	53.555	88.909230483333	0	0.13	2.29	2.42	F	F	29.7	292.7	150	444.44455771949	39.515223619345	0.82797726422199	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2025-05-26 00:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	54.896	41.144	48.02	89.4636632	0.003543309	0.143543309	2.29	2.433543309	F	F	22.896	274.896	150	444.66051064805	39.780958162957	0.62714191792176	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	52.97	39.92	46.445	93.6348592	0.003543309	0.133543309	2.28	2.413543309	F	F	20.97	273.97	150	446.27548787071	41.786942471185	0.55894088384103	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	53.96	42.098	48.029	94.0520752	0	0.11	2.27	2.38	F	F	21.96	269.96	150	446.43608359976	41.988240106718	0.59435260384304	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	56.354	43.268	49.811	91.4426056	0	0.02	2.26	2.28	F	F	24.354	277.354	150	445.42883841731	40.731173594261	0.67635698894027	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-25 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	67.532	48.38	57.956	90.2472424	0	0.02	2.28	2.3	F	F	35.532	291.532	150	444.96519854091	40.156882132285	0.9305584124873	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-25 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	67.208	48.47	57.839	90.22448405	0	0.01	2.28	2.29	F	F	35.208	290.208	150	444.95635770428	40.145957798636	0.92650948395655	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-25 00:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	69.62	50	59.81	89.0968088	0	0.01	2.27	2.28	F	F	37.62	286.62	150	444.5176539852	39.605104425344	0.95267620324321	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2025-05-24 20:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	68.054	49.604	58.829	93.6096496	0	0.01	2.29	2.3	F	F	36.054	276.054	150	446.26577868087	41.774783170788	0.93671862906264	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2025-05-24 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	68.036	48.866	58.451	93.8760184	0	0.02	2.27	2.29	F	F	36.036	276.036	150	446.36833617191	41.903282139651	0.93651351321833	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2025-05-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	70.862	53.402	62.132	91.8383512	0	0.02	2.28	2.3	F	F	38.862	276.862	150	445.58202448353	40.921518452926	0.96289578389755	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2025-05-24 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	70.232	52.7	61.466	91.8898144	0	0.02	2.3	2.32	F	F	38.232	278.232	150	445.60193365919	40.946278980224	0.95796249303704	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2025-05-24 04:00:05	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	70.502	52.7	61.601	91.821351555858	0	0.02	2.3	2.32	F	F	38.502	276.502	150	445.57544738903	40.913339799367	0.96013798979407	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2025-05-24 00:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	62.636	42.35	52.493	92.176157724895	0	0.01	2.26	2.27	F	F	30.636	267.636	150	445.71266160554	41.084080596135	0.84891725583742	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2025-05-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	63.896	44.78	54.338	92.902658637914	0	0.01	2.25	2.26	F	F	31.896	276.896	150	445.99323582274	41.433957342458	0.87432212545946	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-23 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	64.94	47.138	56.039	92.660880629736	0	0.01	2.25	2.26	F	F	32.94	277.94	150	445.89991877614	41.317479146525	0.8929923365989	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	62.15	45.23	53.69	92.008215797476	0	0.06	2.25	2.31	F	F	30.15	276.15	150	445.64772882451	41.00325240334	0.83826518771797	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2025-05-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	61.394	45.644	53.519	91.6189392	0	0.06	2.25	2.31	F	F	29.394	277.394	150	445.4971130301	40.815972912481	0.82074864912783	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2025-05-23 04:00:05	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	56.552	42.188	49.37	93.467528766667	0	0.08	2.28	2.36	F	F	24.552	266.552	150	446.21103082982	41.706242360091	0.68283128198686	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-23 00:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	63.806	42.962	53.384	95.869886391203	0	0.05	2.25	2.3	F	F	31.806	264.806	150	447.13381687687	42.86666822565	0.87261258809886	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-22 20:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	63.788	42.836	53.312	96.2620224	0	0.05	2.32	2.37	F	F	31.788	265.788	150	447.28390907389	43.05645367443	0.8722687547734	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	65.588	43.124	54.356	96.1660824	0	0.02	2.37	2.39	F	F	33.588	269.588	150	447.24720132774	43.010011216053	0.90352760006311	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-22 12:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	71.204	41.306	56.255	97.318746648595	0	0.09	2.49	2.58	F	F	39.204	274.204	150	447.68763259427	43.568399294151	0.96536971592833	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2025-05-22 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	71.204	41.36	56.282	98.678201104704	0	0.09	2.4	2.49	F	F	39.204	257.204	150	448.20542356544	44.22810492281	0.96536971592833	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2025-05-22 04:00:05	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	57.344	38.552	47.948	99.622151356394	0	0.09	2.3	2.39	F	F	25.344	241.344	150	448.56390639055	44.686901375454	0.70815830438743	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2025-05-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	41.504	33.908	37.706	100.17568156309	0	0.08	2.61	2.69	F	F	9.504	216.504	150	448.77372043866	44.956213312546	0.18415680804847	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2025-05-21 20:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	41.504	33.908	37.706	102.42020912599	0	0.08	2.58	2.66	F	F	9.504	216.504	150	449.62148537996	46.050326560155	0.18415680804847	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2025-05-21 16:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	35.708	31.532	33.62	102.02606181329	0	0.11	2.67	2.78	F	F	3.708	214.708	150	449.47296435933	45.85795644513	0.076357316552644	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	43.988	38.588	41.288	101.64484210609	0	0.11	2.43	2.54	F	F	11.988	228.988	150	449.32917314408	45.67199285789	0.2506130427199	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2025-05-21 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	43.988	38.588	41.288	100.71781992842	0	0.11	2.46	2.57	F	F	11.988	230.988	150	448.97893069242	45.220179093132	0.2506130427199	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2025-05-21 04:00:05	FORECAST	2025	243	-42	47.3	45.356	46.328	100.14269615827	0	0.11	2.42	2.53	F	F	15.3	246.3	150	448.76122567886	44.940159070772	0.35573935702952	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L