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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 30, 2025

[ Thursday, May 29, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, May 31, 2025 ]

DAY 242 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/31/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 70.82°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.12°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 54.47°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.958
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 39
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 285

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.70 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.76 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 87 in
SWE DAY: 149
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 38.41 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -43

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 1
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-31 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025242-4370.8200638.1254.4700386.71242500.062.72.76FF38.82006284.82006149442.99839134116 38.4134647842910.958126350081416 5121118DRYL
2025-05-31 00:00:01FORECAST2025242-4362.81637.7650.28882.413359200.062.72.76FF30.816276.816149441.2976547269936.3688221331330.85110074466772165121124DRYL
2025-05-30 12:00:02FORECAST2025242-4362.2437.79650.01885.427036800.062.72.76FF30.24276.24149442.4918287587637.8007657390740.83933162623914164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-30 08:00:01FORECAST2025242-4363.66237.59850.6385.391809600.062.72.76FF31.662277.662149442.4779226660137.78399052450.86731976847944165121124DRYL
2025-05-30 04:00:02FORECAST2025242-4363.4138.1250.76585.76051366666700.062.72.76FF31.41277.41149442.6234086009737.959610882510.86262081830208165121124DRYL
2025-05-30 00:00:01FORECAST2025242-4364.00437.54450.77488.140358400.062.72.76FF32.004272.004149443.5591942431339.0954663522050.87351854585925165121124DRYL
2025-05-29 20:00:02FORECAST2025242-4363.7738.10250.93690.36386400.062.72.76FF31.77273.77149444.4284086204740.1602682743170.86929941642941165121124DRYL
2025-05-29 16:00:02FORECAST2025242-4363.9537.45450.70290.330703200.062.72.76FF31.95273.95149444.4154814045640.1443629482410.87255339887753165121124DRYL
2025-05-29 12:00:01FORECAST2025242-4363.69837.5850.63989.091650400.062.72.76FF31.698273.698149443.9316749142239.5506055829440.86798192641557165121124DRYL
2025-05-29 08:00:01FORECAST2025242-4363.93237.83250.88289.00200800.062.72.76FF31.932273.932149443.8966136137239.5076899560210.87223055142955165121124DRYL
2025-05-29 04:00:03FORECAST2025242-4364.47238.22851.3588.75994393333300.042.72.74FF32.472274.472149443.8018966362739.3918314629420.88167072077346165121124DRYL
2025-05-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025242-4364.29238.2151.25187.264126400.072.72.77FF32.292266.292149443.2153062851438.6767965100810.87858021944681165121124DRYL
2025-05-28 20:00:01FORECAST2025242-4365.04837.83251.4492.959794400.12.72.8FF33.048267.048149445.4370197320341.4077337724390.8911864473145165122128DRYL
2025-05-28 16:00:01FORECAST2025242-4364.97637.5851.27892.958416800.092.72.79FF32.976266.976149445.4364862472841.4070705465020.89002791556109165121124DRYL
2025-05-28 12:00:02FORECAST2025242-4364.95835.52850.24390.40867600.12.72.8FF32.958265.958149444.445876143540.1817632157940.88973690911449165122128DRYL
2025-05-28 08:00:01FORECAST2025242-4364.65236.30250.47790.34717600.092.72.79FF32.652267.652149444.4219032024540.1522639068870.88470536235748165121124DRYL
2025-05-28 04:00:03FORECAST2025242-4364.52635.79850.16290.233518800.132.72.83FF32.526268.526149444.377589323840.0977535605480.88258696535964165122128DRYL
2025-05-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025242-4364.18435.649.89287.987445600.112.72.81FF32.184262.184149443.4992368609139.0223649769410.87669898985305165122128DRYL
2025-05-27 20:00:02FORECAST2025242-4364.20236.2350.21692.026687200.122.72.82FF32.202263.202149445.0752398417840.9587998773850.87701393398108165122128DRYL
2025-05-27 16:00:01FORECAST2025242-4364.0436.93250.48691.996478400.092.72.79FF32.04263.04149445.0635130942540.9442758690030.87415914999009165121124DRYL
2025-05-27 12:00:02FORECAST2025242-4364.5836.60850.59489.442900.092.72.79FF32.58266.58149444.0689801890239.7188173881480.88349819027821165121124DRYL
2025-05-27 08:00:02FORECAST2025242-4363.5935.9649.77589.518864800.092.72.79FF31.59266.59149444.0986591119939.7552078229070.8659886191918165121124DRYL
2025-05-27 04:00:03FORECAST2025242-4363.534.9749.23589.77608656666700.142.72.84FF31.5266.5149444.1991113671639.8784578749350.86431185507822165122128DRYL
2025-05-27 00:00:02FORECAST2025242-4363.24833.87248.5691.867358400.172.622.79FF31.248262.248149445.0133798858740.8822036627710.8595409225722165122128DRYL
2025-05-26 20:00:01FORECAST2025242-4363.35635.27649.31693.268043200.142.632.77FF31.356268.356149445.5563442012841.5561683589990.86159933703236165122128DRYL
2025-05-26 16:00:02FORECAST2025242-4363.37436.89650.13593.10735600.112.632.74FF31.374267.374149445.494153134941.478782711850.86194040274581165122128DRYL
2025-05-26 12:00:02FORECAST2025242-4362.94237.8550.39692.353316800.072.632.7FF30.942266.942149445.2019766709141.1158791914740.8535966458864165121124DRYL
2025-05-26 08:00:02FORECAST2025242-4361.95237.6749.81192.354694400.122.642.76FF29.952265.952149445.2025109762441.1165418473230.8332258237298164122127DRYL
2025-05-26 04:00:03FORECAST2025242-4362.92438.49850.71191.77513048333300.152.662.81FF30.924266.924149444.9775606378240.8378736896910.85324181374269165122128DRYL
2025-05-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025242-4360.49437.65249.07391.703640800.162.662.82FF28.494256.494149444.9497898795640.803515705150.80006427509326164122127DRYL
2025-05-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025242-4360.0837.27448.67795.602465600.142.662.8FF28.08257.08149446.4569829083542.6823883503750.78997156267058164122127DRYL
2025-05-25 16:00:03FORECAST2025242-4359.10835.79847.45396.129594400.122.652.77FF27.108252.108149446.6596153637642.9372076597780.76513421230789164122127DRYL
2025-05-25 12:00:03FORECAST2025242-4361.08839.3850.23493.677269600.022.652.67FF29.088257.088149445.7146132682241.7533279917870.81402591986624164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025242-4361.86240.47851.1793.513728800.022.672.69FF29.862259.862149445.6513832959341.6745225968810.8312875310931164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-25 04:00:03FORECAST2025242-4361.7940.51451.15293.4658784500.012.672.68FF29.79258.79149445.6328778914141.6514683983220.82972654160293164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-25 00:00:02FORECAST2025242-4363.08639.84851.46792.656625600.012.662.67FF31.086253.086149445.3195705893741.2618087244520.85641461669589165121124DRYL
2025-05-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025242-4362.02436.7749.39796.980833600.012.682.69FF30.024244.024149446.9862661327543.3491006973060.83476609713666164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025242-4361.89835.8748.88497.191901600.022.662.68FF29.898243.898149447.067151221443.4513065701030.83206457448362164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-24 12:00:03FORECAST2025242-4364.41836.87850.64895.672015200.022.672.69FF32.418242.418149446.4837338606342.7159985724670.88074944866583165121124DRYL
2025-05-24 08:00:02FORECAST2025242-4363.87837.65250.76595.63285200.022.692.71FF31.878243.878149446.4686710498542.6970723411470.87125861060576165121124DRYL
2025-05-24 04:00:05FORECAST2025242-4363.66237.54450.60395.56104355585800.022.692.71FF31.662241.662149446.441048448642.6623724759190.86731976847944165121124DRYL
2025-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2025242-4364.43637.54450.9995.18778812489500.012.652.66FF32.436241.436149446.2973868531842.4820611004750.88105709845962165121124DRYL
2025-05-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025242-4367.69438.7553.22296.09623063791400.012.642.65FF35.694248.694149446.6467981122242.9210737250780.92789694526486165121124DRYL
2025-05-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025242-4366.79440.62253.70895.95816622973600.012.642.65FF34.794248.794149446.5937467937942.8543169919990.91665490778538165121124DRYL
2025-05-23 12:00:03FORECAST2025242-4364.90442.81853.86194.94102779747600.062.642.7FF32.904249.904149446.2023369124542.3629084721040.88886058784739165121124DRYL
2025-05-23 08:00:03FORECAST2025242-4363.33841.9952.66494.538860800.062.642.7FF31.338252.338149446.0472979434942.1688034104950.86125769916563165121124DRYL
2025-05-23 04:00:05FORECAST2025242-4360.85441.70251.27895.77746876666700.082.672.75FF28.854245.854149446.5242855881642.7669658164780.80859944247915164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-23 00:00:03FORECAST2025242-4357.57838.04847.81398.75192399120300.052.642.69FF25.578236.578149447.6636373241344.2076454866580.7229553442313164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-22 20:00:03FORECAST2025242-4357.45237.95847.70599.136581600.052.712.76FF25.452238.452149447.81035112344.394387415430.71932367086377164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-22 16:00:02FORECAST2025242-4358.06437.36447.71499.18440400.022.762.78FF26.064240.064149447.8285812397344.4176109244280.73674422001037164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-22 12:00:02FORECAST2025242-4354.19432.77443.48499.7185258485950.003937010.213937012.762.97393701FF22.194239.194149448.03204051144.6770946126950.61842051777522163122126DRYL
2025-05-22 08:00:02FORECAST2025242-4354.37432.6343.502101.07542190470.0043307110.2543307112.632.884330711FF22.374222.374149448.5476737491345.3371453685670.62429340680595163122126DRYL
2025-05-22 04:00:05FORECAST2025242-4353.40233.00843.205101.366192956390.0043307110.2243307112.562.784330711FF21.402220.402149448.6579384514245.4787471604840.59227196169417163122126DRYL
2025-05-22 00:00:03FORECAST2025242-4353.2438.6645.95100.3776967630900.0833.08FF21.24211.24149448.2827536124744.9975903062350.58686817155605163121123DRYL
2025-05-21 20:00:03FORECAST2025242-4353.2438.6645.95102.6222243259900.082.973.05FF21.24211.24149449.1333096410546.0910592542590.58686817155605163121123DRYL
2025-05-21 16:00:03FORECAST2025242-4352.66437.09444.879102.0941546132900.133.043.17FF20.664214.664149448.9336354338445.8334999870910.56752793727729163122126DRYL
2025-05-21 12:00:03FORECAST2025242-4361.19633.22447.21102.015908506090.0255905650.1955905652.732.925590565FF29.196221.196149448.9040261547345.7953520602160.81649802204119164122127DRYL
2025-05-21 08:00:02FORECAST2025242-4361.19633.22447.21101.088886328420.0255905650.1955905652.762.955590565FF29.196223.196149448.5527814570245.3437011370050.81649802204119164122127DRYL
2025-05-21 04:00:05FORECAST2025242-4368.91834.4351.674100.377675358270.0255905650.1955905652.722.915590565FF36.918234.918149448.2827454780444.997579894310.941279047168361651221116DRYL
2025-05-21 00:00:03FORECAST2025242-4349.40636.91443.16104.5689711876600.112.662.77FF17.406194.406149449.8671060931147.0421404553280.45644144523068162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 20:00:02FORECAST2025242-4349.5535.11442.332104.8977358326200.12.622.72FF17.55195.55149449.9906711674647.2030025512680.46134336653899162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 16:00:03FORECAST2025242-4347.44434.77241.108105.2239734044500.142.642.78FF15.444189.444149450.1131844944647.3626977542390.39061632745579162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 12:00:03FORECAST2025242-4346.95841.28844.123105.6379345586200.232.813.04FF14.958196.958149450.268494950547.5654338033920.3747098012655162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 08:00:03FORECAST2025242-4342.42239.1140.766105.9634345466400.232.93.13FF10.422178.422149450.3905018026947.7249244581960.23930018145144161112123DRYL
2025-05-20 04:00:04FORECAST2025242-4342.90840.141.504105.1758647455400.252.973.22FF10.908184.908149450.0951244342847.3391439301280.25243203655295162112124DRYL