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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 29, 2025

[ Wednesday, May 28, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, May 30, 2025 ]

DAY 241 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/30/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.83°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.56°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.70°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.475
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 18
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 252

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.06 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 88 in
SWE DAY: 148
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.09 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 39.18 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -44

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-30 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025241-4449.8300837.5600243.6950588.4315816666670.0600000000000590.0600000000000593.043.1000000000001FF17.83008251.83008148443.08614270174 39.1828084136970.474506317595916 2121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 00:00:01FORECAST2025241-4444.43837.34640.89290.79184480.055118140.055118143.043.09511814FF12.438246.438148444.0114858399640.3126219117990.30347588355339162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 12:00:01FORECAST2025241-4445.53637.441.46891.74136560.0578740470.0578740473.043.097874047FF13.536247.536148444.3821843146640.7682284373380.33625926506583162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 08:00:01FORECAST2025241-4446.02237.59841.8191.69728240.062992160.062992163.043.10299216FF14.022248.022148444.3649937585640.7470623213530.35119707608436162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 04:00:03FORECAST2025241-4446.1337.86841.99991.5096335333330.0405512030.0405512033.043.080551203FF14.13248.13148444.2917972145940.6569795449730.35454903260044162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025241-4445.66237.92241.79290.00082720.0657480670.0657480673.043.105748067FF13.662239.662148443.701984572739.9335456418240.340108452143162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-28 20:00:01FORECAST2025241-4445.89637.81441.85595.7001360.0952756420.0952756423.043.135275642FF13.896239.896148445.9181134101742.6744240982160.34730104905888162122125DRYL
2025-05-28 16:00:01FORECAST2025241-4446.23837.41841.82895.66756560.0948819410.0948819413.043.134881941FF14.238240.238148445.9055396085442.6586974619030.35791228549705162122125DRYL
2025-05-28 12:00:02FORECAST2025241-4445.19435.54640.3793.004960.098425250.098425253.043.13842525FF13.194239.194148444.8741144607441.3754992204560.32589855456705162122125DRYL
2025-05-28 08:00:01FORECAST2025241-4445.2336.21240.72192.93470240.0940945390.0940945393.043.134094539FF13.23241.23148444.8468038960741.3417053336720.32698302598515162122125DRYL
2025-05-28 04:00:03FORECAST2025241-4446.32835.72641.02792.810910.1098425790.1298425793.043.169842579FF14.328242.328148444.7986714001641.282169459440.36072345504213162122125DRYL
2025-05-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025241-4445.98635.5140.74890.5385640.1090551770.1090551773.043.149055177FF13.986235.986148443.9124523924440.191195981330.35008230801028162122125DRYL
2025-05-27 20:00:02FORECAST2025241-4446.5836.30241.44194.59000720.1224410110.1224410113.043.162441011FF14.58236.58148445.4889611962142.138804047070.36863441066386162122125DRYL
2025-05-27 16:00:01FORECAST2025241-4445.78836.96841.37894.56491520.086614220.086614223.043.12661422FF13.788236.788148445.4792471702842.1267072320170.34397436592913162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-27 12:00:02FORECAST2025241-4447.78637.11242.44992.02176720.0838583130.0938583133.043.133858313FF15.786239.786148444.4914838558940.9028918497690.40721398095258162122125DRYL
2025-05-27 08:00:02FORECAST2025241-4447.64236.51842.0892.02127520.0811024060.0911024063.043.131102406FF15.642240.642148444.4912921442140.9026555184060.40255165404617162122125DRYL
2025-05-27 04:00:03FORECAST2025241-4447.5735.2441.40592.2246721666670.1212599080.1412599083.043.181259908FF15.57240.57148444.5705269542141.0003711033140.40022563216669162122125DRYL
2025-05-27 00:00:02FORECAST2025241-4447.22833.83640.53294.27274640.1645670180.1745670182.963.134567018FF15.228237.228148445.3660924142441.9858846853270.38922661059293162122125DRYL
2025-05-26 20:00:01FORECAST2025241-4448.03835.31241.67595.7538240.1433071640.1433071642.973.113307164FF16.038243.038148445.9388373900642.7003489502120.41540438423627162122125DRYL
2025-05-26 16:00:02FORECAST2025241-4447.94836.46442.20695.64479680.1086614760.1086614762.973.078661476FF15.948241.948148445.8967490964242.6477039611070.41247482215008162122125DRYL
2025-05-26 12:00:02FORECAST2025241-4447.82237.59842.7194.88505040.0665354690.0665354692.973.036535469FF15.822241.822148445.6031367238742.2810760864430.40838164713389162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-26 08:00:02FORECAST2025241-4448.16437.50842.83694.77513760.0988189510.1188189512.983.098818951FF16.164242.164148445.5606127765942.2280683850420.4195136474651162122125DRYL
2025-05-26 04:00:03FORECAST2025241-4448.95638.7543.85394.3695448833330.1322835360.15228353633.152283536FF16.956241.956148445.4035910335142.0325341752350.44552689287868162122125DRYL
2025-05-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025241-4448.34437.90443.12494.08049280.1444882670.16448826733.164488267FF16.344234.344148445.2915882347841.8932520608220.42539917155909162122125DRYL
2025-05-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025241-4448.63237.92243.27797.87767040.1267717220.13677172233.136771722FF16.632234.632148446.7563953277843.7274752109850.43485014517447162122125DRYL
2025-05-25 16:00:02FORECAST2025241-4448.32636.30242.31498.2692040.1086614760.1186614762.993.108661476FF16.326231.326148446.9066322215743.9171590107350.42480984784404162122125DRYL
2025-05-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025241-4450.95439.84845.40196.1098160.0173228440.0173228442.993.007322844FF18.954233.954148446.0761815598742.8722997317020.51194656117558163121123DRYL
2025-05-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025241-4453.5141.0947.396.08984080.0165354420.0165354423.013.026535442FF21.51235.51148446.0684782781642.8626490636470.59618660662467163121123DRYL
2025-05-25 04:00:03FORECAST2025241-4452.80841.57647.19296.030182450.0094488240.0094488243.013.019448824FF20.808234.808148446.0454691690242.8338277852960.57332302209261163121123DRYL
2025-05-25 00:00:02FORECAST2025241-4453.20440.02846.61695.36213360.0090551230.00905512333.009055123FF21.204228.204148445.7875769679642.5112544720390.5862559235863163121123DRYL
2025-05-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025241-4450.97236.82443.89899.54690880.0102362260.0102362263.023.030236226FF18.972219.972148447.3958672926944.5368755988820.51254620485457163121123DRYL
2025-05-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025241-4452.19636.03244.11499.70454560.0248031630.02480316333.024803163FF20.196220.196148447.4561167042944.6134087919420.55318474604507163121123DRYL
2025-05-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025241-4449.65837.59843.62898.25068560.0244094620.0244094623.013.034409462FF17.658215.658148446.8995298193643.908185199070.46878556236833162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-24 08:00:02FORECAST2025241-4449.80239.59644.69998.10525040.0248031630.0248031633.033.054803163FF17.802217.802148446.8437391250143.8377169165310.47357241482641162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-24 04:00:05FORECAST2025241-4451.31438.76845.04198.0041187558580.0248031630.0248031633.033.054803163FF19.314216.314148446.8049316581343.7887235829260.52393250284776163121123DRYL
2025-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2025241-4452.1639.30845.73497.8733209248950.011811030.011811032.993.00181103FF20.16215.16148446.7547255343843.7253686269390.55199533369632163121123DRYL
2025-05-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025241-4454.73440.1947.46299.1057946379140.011811030.011811032.982.99181103FF22.734218.734148447.2271434475644.3228014350150.63523373084085163121123DRYL
2025-05-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025241-4454.15841.86448.01198.9749134297360.0055118140.0055118142.982.985511814FF22.158220.158148447.1770456972444.2593093856490.61700552431178163121123DRYL
2025-05-23 12:00:03FORECAST2025241-4456.51643.62850.07297.8963733974760.0645669640.0645669642.983.044566964FF24.516222.516148446.7635753269143.7365337905950.68956842947527163121123DRYL
2025-05-23 08:00:03FORECAST2025241-4454.3242.54848.43497.44018480.0645669640.0645669642.983.044566964FF22.32227.32148446.5883491750443.5156512731430.62216043619261163121123DRYL
2025-05-23 04:00:05FORECAST2025241-4452.98840.80246.89598.3035935666670.0834646120.0834646123.013.093464612FF20.988222.988148446.9198208406343.9338244248050.57921226783588163121123DRYL
2025-05-23 00:00:03FORECAST2025241-4453.40241.88247.642100.79618399120.0452756150.0452756152.983.025275615FF21.402217.402148447.8726839261945.1438574536580.59268838052711163121123DRYL
2025-05-22 20:00:03FORECAST2025241-4453.43841.79247.615101.16539280.0452756150.0452756153.053.095275615FF21.438219.438148448.0133121488945.3234427031710.59385529216687163121123DRYL
2025-05-22 16:00:02FORECAST2025241-4453.40240.40646.904101.271960.0185039470.0185039473.13.118503947FF21.402220.402148448.0538780902245.3752944197980.59268838052711163121123DRYL
2025-05-22 12:00:02FORECAST2025241-4449.7336.73443.232101.28347944860.090551230.210551233.13.31055123FF17.73222.73148448.0582624336245.3808998149680.4711784681064162122125DRYL
2025-05-22 08:00:02FORECAST2025241-4446.43636.6841.558102.64342590470.0901575290.2501575292.973.220157529FF14.436206.436148448.574962430346.043270918920.36410680244139162122125DRYL
2025-05-22 04:00:05FORECAST2025241-4446.23836.5941.414102.866247655740.0862205190.2162205192.93.116220519FF14.238205.238148448.6594515995146.1519142613220.35791228549705162122125DRYL
2025-05-22 00:00:02FORECAST2025241-4452.68240.26246.472102.233127163090.0763779940.1063779943.313.416377994FF20.682195.682148448.4192609090245.8433033228910.56919072117141163112125DRYL
2025-05-21 20:00:03FORECAST2025241-4452.68240.22646.454104.477654725990.0763779940.1063779943.283.386377994FF20.682195.682148449.2690409100646.9385757352790.56919072117141163112125DRYL
2025-05-21 16:00:02FORECAST2025241-4454.42841.0947.759103.930692213290.1114173830.1614173833.353.511417383FF22.428200.428148449.0624066767646.6713667728840.62558506581188163122126DRYL
2025-05-21 12:00:03FORECAST2025241-4447.46238.37242.917103.490124674640.0783464990.1683464993.073.238346499FF15.462198.462148448.8957579998946.4562779613240.39674324822488162112124DRYL
2025-05-21 08:00:02FORECAST2025241-4447.46238.37242.917102.563102496970.0783464990.1683464993.13.268346499FF15.462200.462148448.5444938107546.0041148931610.39674324822488162122125DRYL
2025-05-21 04:00:05FORECAST2025241-4449.96438.91244.438102.260392730510.0763779940.1663779943.063.226377994FF17.964203.964148448.4296127705745.8565883139080.47896215439705162122125DRYL
2025-05-21 00:00:03FORECAST2025241-4449.6437.43643.538104.9228175876600.1133.11FF17.64182.64148449.4370049895547.1561968916640.46818750867772162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 20:00:02FORECAST2025241-4446.61635.641.108105.1950022326200.12.963.06FF14.616183.616148449.5396092606547.2893201998250.36976919516172162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 16:00:03FORECAST2025241-4446.20235.61840.91105.488866204450.0094488240.1394488242.983.119448824FF14.202180.202148449.6503062877447.4331009987790.35678996057576162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 12:00:03FORECAST2025241-4460.0836.80648.443106.1345593586200.233.153.38FF28.08188.08148449.8932454991147.7492213694690.78594408062311164112126DRYL
2025-05-20 08:00:03FORECAST2025241-4453.56435.94244.753106.3502449466400.233.243.47FF21.564173.564148449.9743075191647.8548778243560.59793285816924163112125DRYL
2025-05-20 04:00:04FORECAST2025241-4449.11837.99443.556105.331730345540.0562992430.2562992433.33.556299243FF17.118180.118148449.5911243069247.3562110712460.45088061777583162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 00:00:03FORECAST2025241-4441.41435.47438.444112.075783639080.1381890511.0981890513.354.448189051TF9.414145.414148452.1100041618450.6705830075070.22150919855739161114126WETL
2025-05-19 20:00:03FORECAST2025241-4441.43235.56438.498110.233150809830.1342520411.0842520413.414.494252041TF9.432148.432148451.4260658177549.7621175927770.22195659508066161114126WETL
2025-05-19 16:00:03FORECAST2025241-4438.0335.27636.653110.255473618520.1602363071.0902363073.394.480236307TF6.03149.03148451.4343706447249.773110343110.14686467996316161114126WETL
2025-05-19 12:00:03FORECAST2025241-4436.55435.2435.897111.612291116420.0334645851.4734645853.174.643464585TF4.554142.554148451.9382687568350.4418656191360.12031367161127161114126WETL
2025-05-19 08:00:03FORECAST2025241-4436.55435.2435.897111.644965451720.0334645851.4734645853.354.823464585TF4.554137.554148451.9503820286450.4579847874780.12031367161127161114126WETL
2025-05-19 04:00:04FORECAST2025241-4434.8833.60234.241113.678260201530.0846457151.6346457153.214.844645715TF2.88130.88148452.7022057584751.4623991400170.094508647650918161115127.5WETL