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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 27, 2025

[ Monday, May 26, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, May 28, 2025 ]

DAY 239 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/28/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.57°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.81°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.19°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.965
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 36
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 220

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.14 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 97 in
SWE DAY: 146
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.25 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 43.18 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -46

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-28 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025239-4667.5699834.8099851.1899896.9683100.143.13.24FF35.56998219.56998146445.25115014743 43.1752515553530.9649136849161316 5122128DRYL
2025-05-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025239-4661.03435.3348.18294.810993600.143.13.24FF29.034213.034146444.4124021083242.1351814120530.87498783244443165122128DRYL
2025-05-27 12:00:02FORECAST2025239-4661.08835.70848.39896.752248800.143.13.24FF29.088213.088146445.1673541621743.0709426075360.87610608898374165122128DRYL
2025-05-27 08:00:02FORECAST2025239-4661.75435.56448.65996.720760800.143.13.24FF29.754213.754146445.1551381899643.0557436397620.88932615563744165122128DRYL
2025-05-27 04:00:03FORECAST2025239-4661.59235.40248.49796.85006256666700.143.13.24FF29.592213.592146445.2052954114543.118160715610.88620720971811165122128DRYL
2025-05-27 00:00:01FORECAST2025239-4662.43835.16848.80398.819515200.063.13.16FF30.438212.438146445.9672295388744.0702654181180.90182148954343165121124DRYL
2025-05-26 20:00:01FORECAST2025239-4663.62635.45649.541100.567847200.073.13.17FF31.626214.626146446.6404311361844.9176666318450.92102133559884165121124DRYL
2025-05-26 16:00:02FORECAST2025239-4663.42835.65449.541100.570602400.073.13.17FF31.428214.428146446.641489678444.919003673790.91803495594902165121124DRYL
2025-05-26 12:00:02FORECAST2025239-4662.74435.04248.89399.767658400.073.13.17FF30.744213.744146446.3326865190444.5295670013860.90706513672488165121124DRYL
2025-05-26 08:00:02FORECAST2025239-4662.34835.4248.88499.750930400.083.13.18FF30.348214.348146446.3262464204544.521458342380.90023889134293165121124DRYL
2025-05-26 04:00:03FORECAST2025239-4662.45634.95248.70499.37131528333300.13.13.2FF30.456213.456146446.1800251289644.3374959502150.90213579722403165122128DRYL
2025-05-26 00:00:01FORECAST2025239-4662.31234.73648.52499.087281600.13.13.2FF30.312206.312146446.07052793444.1999160148570.89960067822838165122128DRYL
2025-05-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025239-4662.2434.39448.317102.834570400.13.13.2FF30.24207.24146447.5088024015246.0193754451790.89831535331239165122128DRYL
2025-05-25 16:00:02FORECAST2025239-4660.60234.30447.453103.011887200.093.13.19FF28.602205.602146447.5765210408646.1057020988290.86578860391237165121124DRYL
2025-05-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025239-4660.83633.92647.381101.191979200.093.13.19FF28.836205.836146446.8800322473245.2206749280660.87082750887777165121124DRYL
2025-05-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025239-4660.81834.39447.606101.174660800.113.13.21FF28.818205.818146446.8733889237145.2122635449030.87044460737693165122128DRYL
2025-05-25 04:00:03FORECAST2025239-4660.4433.87247.156101.1406848500.113.13.21FF28.44205.44146446.8603549289445.1957623298270.86222226293161165122128DRYL
2025-05-25 00:00:01FORECAST2025239-4659.97233.31446.643100.484542400.13.13.2FF27.972197.972146446.6084221035844.8772429270640.85155981057192165112127DRYL
2025-05-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025239-4659.25233.56646.409104.361128800.123.13.22FF27.252193.252146448.090808922146.7632626240150.83410783101097164112126DRYL
2025-05-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025239-4658.83833.1746.004104.509712800.13.13.2FF26.838191.838146448.1473367466146.8357494554730.82349720838545164112126DRYL
2025-05-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025239-4658.40632.77445.59102.978510400.113.13.21FF26.406191.406146447.5637765162446.0894510146410.81197918929627164112126DRYL
2025-05-24 08:00:02FORECAST2025239-4657.45232.59445.023102.888080800.133.13.23FF25.452193.452146447.5292416450546.0454247747380.7849517801205164112126DRYL
2025-05-24 04:00:04FORECAST2025239-4656.69632.01844.357102.8005283558600.133.13.23FF24.696190.696146447.4957979948846.00280447090.76201936504428164112126DRYL
2025-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2025239-4657.233.29645.248102.9908097248900.093.13.19FF25.2187.2146447.5684729893946.0954394405120.77745353514263164112126DRYL
2025-05-23 20:00:01FORECAST2025239-4657.52432.93645.23104.5660106379100.083.13.18FF25.524187.524146448.1687493235646.8632182093480.78706693392324164111123DRYL
2025-05-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025239-4657.79433.60245.698104.4309966297400.083.13.18FF25.794189.794146448.1173923445946.7973458896630.79489007740637164111123DRYL
2025-05-23 12:00:02FORECAST2025239-4657.90233.845.851103.5216061974800.083.13.18FF25.902189.902146447.7710168499646.3539748729850.79797097753368164111123DRYL
2025-05-23 08:00:02FORECAST2025239-4658.89235.22247.057103.061186400.083.13.18FF26.892194.892146447.5953433635946.1297071141670.82490498658398164111123DRYL
2025-05-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025239-4658.04634.77246.409103.7073279666700.113.13.21FF26.046193.046146447.8418209880246.4444786063940.80203556891824164112126DRYL
2025-05-23 00:00:03FORECAST2025239-4657.21835.646.409106.203952791200.093.093.18FF25.218190.218146448.7903931547447.6633137277510.77799401007249164111123DRYL
2025-05-22 20:00:03FORECAST2025239-4656.94835.5146.229106.577983200.113.143.25FF24.948191.948146448.9319855641547.8462656153990.7698086820296164112126DRYL
2025-05-22 16:00:02FORECAST2025239-4656.80434.89845.851106.61163600.163.143.3FF24.804192.804146448.9447185245747.8627309154640.76537518626925164112126DRYL
2025-05-22 12:00:02FORECAST2025239-4657.52436.15846.841106.087072248600.163.143.3FF25.524194.524146448.7461194332847.6061619935960.78706693392324164112126DRYL
2025-05-22 08:00:02FORECAST2025239-4656.28235.16845.725106.569093904700.13.073.17FF24.282186.282146448.9286220056847.8419164750330.7489153609688164112126DRYL
2025-05-22 04:00:04FORECAST2025239-4656.67835.4246.049106.7869956557400.033.073.1FF24.678184.678146449.0110504479847.9485410935660.76145751858661164111123DRYL
2025-05-22 00:00:02FORECAST2025239-4652.3434.37643.358106.807644763090.0342519870.3742519873.173.544251987FF20.34172.34146449.0188592799147.9586468138970.60786738438698163112125DRYL
2025-05-21 20:00:03FORECAST2025239-4647.82233.90840.865108.374393125990.0255905650.3655905653.143.505590565FF15.822171.822146449.6101605258948.7262282902740.42795673233534162112124DRYL
2025-05-21 16:00:02FORECAST2025239-4648.234.37641.288107.873777013290.0255905650.3655905653.213.575590565TF16.2176.2146449.4214804330348.4807925652170.44295472265694162112124DRYL
2025-05-21 12:00:02FORECAST2025239-4653.7839.5646.67106.2879318746400.013.263.27FF21.78187.78146448.8221958665647.7043829780890.6623540849292163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-21 08:00:02FORECAST2025239-4654.03239.23646.634105.7997736969700.013.293.3FF22.032189.032146448.6372364076647.4657180839630.67158529449065163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-21 04:00:04FORECAST2025239-4654.46440.06447.264105.7255487305100.013.253.26FF22.464190.464146448.6090930347947.4294425265990.6871668352715163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-21 00:00:03FORECAST2025239-4644.45634.0739.263107.686484811920.0035433090.0235433093.183.203543309FF12.456173.456146449.3508291024448.3890112333630.30124421687454162111122DRYL
2025-05-20 20:00:02FORECAST2025239-4652.55632.39642.476107.636503032620.003937010.023937013.143.16393701FF20.556177.556146449.3319690355248.3645218477450.61620720746888163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-20 16:00:02FORECAST2025239-4649.78432.37841.081107.892876604450.0031496080.0231496083.163.183149608FF17.784174.784146449.4286833910248.4901534796090.5064466897374163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-20 12:00:03FORECAST2025239-4652.66433.96243.313109.2005065586200.023.333.35FF20.664170.664146449.9209950353649.1316005692220.62035729402005163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-20 08:00:03FORECAST2025239-4652.17835.99644.087109.0569337466400.023.423.44FF20.178164.178146449.8670209593449.061117899560.60157961149058163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-20 04:00:04FORECAST2025239-4655.1336.98646.058108.396398345540.0070866180.0070866183.53.507086618FF23.13171.13146449.6184486964748.7370204684080.71053979860203164111123DRYL
2025-05-20 00:00:03FORECAST2025239-4643.59233.69238.642113.057618839080.0838583130.3938583133.243.633858313TF11.592151.592146451.3636764329251.0301024879590.27162328138621162112124DRYL
2025-05-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025239-4643.39433.7138.552111.210558009830.0814961070.3914961073.33.691496107TF11.394155.394146450.6745810209750.119771636190.26504496336596162112124DRYL
2025-05-19 16:00:03FORECAST2025239-4645.73434.48440.109111.135661618520.1000000540.3800000543.313.690000054TF13.734158.734146450.6465706591750.0829047863220.34752253691494162112124DRYL
2025-05-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025239-4644.09635.29439.695112.319140779930.6429137330.6629137333.354.012913733TF12.096151.096146451.0885552825550.6658789449980.28872598573589162113126WETL
2025-05-19 08:00:03FORECAST2025239-4644.09635.29439.695112.351815115240.6429137330.6629137333.534.192913733TF12.096146.096146451.1007390715450.6819868345120.28872598573589162113126WETL
2025-05-19 04:00:04FORECAST2025239-4643.98834.17839.083113.518691627830.6271656930.6571656933.384.037165693TF11.988143.988146451.5351883172551.25768380170.28501880247043162113126WETL
2025-05-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025239-4648.21833.38640.802113.492206562570.1523622870.6623622873.293.952362287TF16.218143.218146451.5253417228251.2446073510410.44367113201873162113126DRYL
2025-05-18 20:00:03FORECAST2025239-4647.7533.45840.604112.610993406750.1523622870.6623622873.263.922362287TF15.75140.75146451.1973471102750.8097814805780.42511105076992162113126DRYL
2025-05-18 16:00:03FORECAST2025239-4648.43435.27641.855111.709483606270.1523622870.5623622873.183.742362287TF16.434139.434146450.861037356850.3654536613160.4522817441485162113126DRYL
2025-05-18 12:00:03FORECAST2025239-4659.274150.135113.379119902260.0011811030.0011811033.923.921181103TF27.27168.27146451.4832910097951.1887781852640.8345596366314164111123DRYL
2025-05-18 08:00:03FORECAST2025239-4659.2741.57650.423114.005624967480.0102362260.0102362263.943.950236226TF27.27171.27146451.7161019788851.4981765139740.8345596366314164111123DRYL
2025-05-18 04:00:04FORECAST2025239-4650.91835.16843.043112.504089295650.0212598540.0212598543.793.811259854TF18.918178.918146451.1575065850150.7570644072440.55189459809688163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-18 00:00:03FORECAST2025239-4647.0342.81844.924113.10886327581003.73.7FF15.03172.03146451.3827484869351.0553895836690.39689206970888162111122DRYL
2025-05-17 20:00:03FORECAST2025239-4646.99442.76444.879114.06024835026003.843.84TF14.994165.994146451.7363826218551.5251639906940.39549389105397162111122DRYL
2025-05-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025239-4650.86447.10248.983114.779885483950.0094488240.0094488243.823.829448824TF18.864168.864146452.0033079013851.8808879192880.54974105575734163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-17 12:00:03FORECAST2025239-4655.446.16650.783111.84396038709003.333.33FF23.4181.4146450.9112530291350.4317003218840.71977614914651164111123DRYL
2025-05-17 08:00:03FORECAST2025239-4655.446.16650.783112.43252901782003.393.39FF23.4185.4146451.130831789550.7217803360070.71977614914651164111123DRYL
2025-05-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025239-4644.18643.5243.853113.56456751091003.433.43FF12.186160.186146451.5522424456951.2803351219260.29183252554575162111122DRYL