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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 26, 2025

[ Sunday, May 25, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, May 27, 2025 ]

DAY 238 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/27/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.31°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.02°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.16°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.289
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 211

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.14 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.14 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 99 in
SWE DAY: 145
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.52 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 44.17 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -47

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-27 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025238-4745.3099237.0200241.1649799.1500641666670.139999999999990.139999999999993.13.24FF13.30992211.30992145445.51678048364 44.173017372280.2894987481243916 2122125DRYL
2025-05-27 00:00:01FORECAST2025238-4743.2535.639.425101.12207520.0594488510.0594488513.13.159448851FF11.25209.25145446.278145618945.1285722013910.22077306694981161121122DRYL
2025-05-26 12:00:02FORECAST2025238-4744.47435.16839.821102.10003360.0704724790.0704724793.13.170472479FF12.474210.474145446.6543090876945.6034199654380.26044161602397162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-26 08:00:01FORECAST2025238-4744.81635.52840.172102.0686440.082677210.082677213.13.18267721FF12.816210.816145446.6422498509445.5881687953940.27214637368401162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-26 04:00:02FORECAST2025238-4743.93435.18639.56101.679188883330.102362260.102362263.13.20236226FF11.934209.934145446.4925492340145.3990002485650.24250211851928161122124DRYL
2025-05-26 00:00:01FORECAST2025238-4743.95235.16839.56101.36917760.098425250.098425253.13.19842525FF11.952202.952145446.3732797160345.2484922674290.24308913924789161122124DRYL
2025-05-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025238-4744.49235.29439.893105.0834040.0881890240.0981890243.13.198189024FF12.492204.492145447.7960812560747.0559365162480.26105113814482162122125DRYL
2025-05-25 16:00:02FORECAST2025238-4743.9734.9739.47105.1468720.0795276020.0895276023.13.189527602FF11.97203.97145447.8202773663147.086901383240.24367692637643161121122DRYL
2025-05-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025238-4743.93434.80839.371103.34192080.0842520140.0942520143.13.194252014FF11.934203.934145447.1306458384546.207339789490.24250211851928161122124DRYL
2025-05-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025238-4743.32234.739.011103.33650880.1003937550.1103937553.13.210393755FF11.322204.322145447.1285732762946.2047057470970.22300657676285161122124DRYL
2025-05-25 04:00:02FORECAST2025238-4742.78233.99838.39103.255005650.0881890240.1081890243.13.208189024FF10.782203.782145447.0973576459446.1650401898310.2065704308053161122124DRYL
2025-05-25 00:00:01FORECAST2025238-4743.05233.81838.435102.557240.0818898080.1018898083.13.201889808FF11.052197.052145446.8298494046645.8256361045580.21469728152198161112123DRYL
2025-05-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025238-4742.83634.17838.507106.36602880.0988189510.1188189513.13.218818951FF10.836192.836145448.2843041438747.6822212051550.20818109164645161112123DRYL
2025-05-24 16:00:01FORECAST2025238-4742.09833.83637.967106.45665520.0889764260.0989764263.13.198976426FF10.098192.098145448.3187403752947.7265135638310.18681340548641161112123DRYL
2025-05-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025238-4741.79233.81837.805104.83531840.1039370640.1139370643.13.213937064FF9.792191.792145447.70146535246.9349256683230.17836589221407161112123DRYL
2025-05-24 08:00:02FORECAST2025238-4741.68433.69237.688104.692540.1153543930.1253543933.13.225354393FF9.684194.684145447.6469849033246.8652998728710.17544266439431161112123DRYL
2025-05-24 04:00:04FORECAST2025238-4741.05433.02637.04104.505111555860.1228347120.1328347123.13.232834712FF9.054193.054145447.575437184246.7739209925970.15899915690798161112123DRYL
2025-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2025238-4742.40434.53838.471104.855686524890.0681102730.0881102733.13.188110273FF10.404189.404145447.7092356777846.9448592705290.19550359906241161111121.5DRYL
2025-05-23 20:00:01FORECAST2025238-4741.97234.05238.012106.437480237910.0661417680.0761417683.13.176141768FF9.972188.972145448.3114549318247.7171416247360.18330552682124161111121.5DRYL
2025-05-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025238-4742.51234.84438.678106.341629429740.0625984590.0825984593.13.182598459FF10.512190.512145448.2750315134947.6702972838110.1986282920169161111121.5DRYL
2025-05-23 12:00:02FORECAST2025238-4743.46635.02439.245105.451328597480.0692913760.0792913763.13.179291376FF11.466191.466145447.93629211747.2354771307650.22751191332844161111121.5DRYL
2025-05-23 08:00:02FORECAST2025238-4745.48235.79840.64105.11853360.0716535820.0816535823.13.181653582FF13.482195.482145447.8094743087247.0730752715190.29566386959606162111122DRYL
2025-05-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025238-4744.13235.9640.046105.674934366670.0988189510.1088189513.13.208818951FF12.132194.132145448.021441119847.3446363851940.24900132060049162112124DRYL
2025-05-23 00:00:02FORECAST2025238-4744.16835.70839.938108.01018319120.0818898080.0918898083.093.181889808FF12.168192.168145448.9078192012848.4866157878940.2501928578077162112124DRYL
2025-05-22 20:00:02FORECAST2025238-4744.11435.2439.677108.36423840.0842520140.1142520143.143.254252014FF12.114194.114145449.0417476738148.6600669964780.24840668460168161112123DRYL
2025-05-22 16:00:02FORECAST2025238-4743.71834.46639.092108.44010480.1291339280.1591339283.143.299133928FF11.718194.718145449.0704299930548.6972444910270.23551802732079161112123DRYL
2025-05-22 12:00:02FORECAST2025238-4746.25636.7741.513108.04031224860.1291339280.1591339283.143.299133928FF14.256196.256145448.9192208096848.5013727906740.32410969344985162112124DRYL
2025-05-22 08:00:02FORECAST2025238-4745.73436.03240.883108.38624670470.094488240.104488243.073.17448824FF13.734188.734145449.0500687803848.6708515375950.30479943423553162112124DRYL
2025-05-22 04:00:04FORECAST2025238-4745.78835.9640.874108.638490055740.0303149770.0303149773.073.100314977FF13.788186.788145449.1454061057548.7944787347990.30677324886359162111122DRYL
2025-05-22 00:00:02FORECAST2025238-4745.12236.21240.667108.354492763090.3303151390.3403151393.173.510315139FF13.122179.122145449.0380628032748.6552915263690.28283583866496162112124DRYL
2025-05-21 20:00:02FORECAST2025238-4747.85836.55442.206109.580088325990.3334647470.3434647473.143.483464747FF15.858182.858145449.5007513574149.2563320363460.38618994501942162112124DRYL
2025-05-21 16:00:02FORECAST2025238-4749.20837.14843.178109.138807413290.3334647470.3434647473.213.553464747FF17.208187.208145449.334324284749.0398122822910.4409514707215162112124DRYL
2025-05-21 12:00:02FORECAST2025238-4752.86241.43247.147108.088651874640.0074803190.0074803193.263.267480319FF20.862192.862145448.9375119416348.5250504417240.59184204473475163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-21 08:00:02FORECAST2025238-4753.18641.9947.588107.634048096970.0074803190.0074803193.293.297480319FF21.186194.186145448.7654065653748.3024373545110.6049017425968163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-21 04:00:04FORECAST2025238-4754.19442.04448.119107.618075930510.0074803190.0074803193.253.257480319FF22.194195.194145448.7593561561648.294618465340.64472468963563163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-21 00:00:03FORECAST2025238-4751.38638.67845.032108.626500011920.0212598540.0212598543.183.201259854FF19.386188.386145449.1408757585548.788601345940.53126404060719163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-20 20:00:02FORECAST2025238-4748.54237.54443.043108.850759032620.0208661530.0208661533.143.160866153FF16.542183.542145449.2255874914348.8985461753160.41372539459061162111122DRYL
2025-05-20 16:00:02FORECAST2025238-4747.9337.11242.521109.004009404450.0208661530.0208661533.163.180866153FF15.93183.93145449.2834486281648.9736972595290.3890641706914162111122DRYL
2025-05-20 12:00:03FORECAST2025238-4748.95637.70643.331110.448415358620.0173228440.1073228443.243.347322844FF16.956176.956145449.827692743249.6827558479130.4306095943816162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 08:00:03FORECAST2025238-4749.47838.76844.123110.554975346640.0216535550.1216535553.323.441653555FF17.478171.478145449.8677649214949.7351196601420.45207672739048162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 04:00:04FORECAST2025238-4752.3438.55245.446110.182358345540.0031496080.1331496083.373.503149608FF20.34175.34145449.7275939078749.5520469098360.5705912759757163112125DRYL
2025-05-20 00:00:03FORECAST2025238-4749.85637.20243.529113.886737239080.307086780.417086783.133.54708678TF17.856166.856145451.1152277657151.3760414091020.46771356712186162112124DRYL
2025-05-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025238-4748.8337.72443.277112.005826809830.3106300890.4106300893.23.610630089TF16.83170.83145450.4122838583650.4488002588610.42545598955648162112124DRYL
2025-05-19 16:00:03FORECAST2025238-4749.53238.343.916112.158824818520.2838584210.3738584213.223.593858421TF17.532171.532145450.4695886531650.5241396798180.45430658820254162112124DRYL
2025-05-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025238-4749.40637.45443.43113.293792779930.0212598540.2112598543.163.371259854FF17.406166.406145450.8939917559351.0834904677140.44910594154638162112124DRYL
2025-05-19 08:00:03FORECAST2025238-4750.0935.45642.773113.326467115240.0212598540.2112598543.343.551259854FF18.09161.09145450.9061916916351.0996057047980.4774201029443162112124DRYL
2025-05-19 04:00:04FORECAST2025238-4747.13835.85241.495114.409014827830.0303149770.1503149773.263.410314977FF15.138159.138145451.3098211529851.6339120202360.35781434284854162112124DRYL
2025-05-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025238-4743.77234.57439.173114.610719362570.2736221950.5836221953.223.803622195TF11.772153.772145451.3849043933651.7335486019280.23725359230242161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-18 20:00:03FORECAST2025238-4743.10634.89839.002113.699789406750.2736221950.5836221953.193.773622195TF11.106152.106145451.045510833351.2837795946060.21634462356858161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-18 16:00:03FORECAST2025238-4747.37237.97642.674112.953062806270.2830710190.4830710193.113.593071019TF15.372150.372145450.7667097280750.9154804748910.36695921760706162112124DRYL
2025-05-18 12:00:03FORECAST2025238-4757.66843.62850.648115.4215103022600.353.573.92TF25.668167.668145451.6863284137652.1343182083970.76829243400986164112126DRYL
2025-05-18 08:00:03FORECAST2025238-4758.7343.46651.098116.1384449674800.363.583.94TF26.73170.73145451.9523432820552.4890423481840.80065384984643164112126DRYL
2025-05-18 04:00:04FORECAST2025238-4759.95443.41251.683113.9478812481600.323.473.79TF27.954186.954145451.1380225195851.406221816590.83437536766823164112126DRYL
2025-05-18 00:00:03FORECAST2025238-4760.8947.80454.347113.6925720758100.063.643.7FF28.89183.89145451.042818669151.2802181708140.85751819034238165111123.5DRYL
2025-05-17 20:00:03FORECAST2025238-4759.43247.42653.429114.6414971502600.063.783.84TF27.432178.432145451.3963578483551.7487542719080.82047086420012164111123DRYL
2025-05-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025238-4759.946.05852.979115.4892510839500.063.763.82TF27.9176.9145451.711484005752.1678209938390.83297006103728164111123DRYL
2025-05-17 12:00:03FORECAST2025238-4768.23446.72457.479112.5819603870900.043.293.33FF36.234185.234145450.6279564832350.732578746110.96686973351867165111117DRYL
2025-05-17 08:00:03FORECAST2025238-4768.23446.83257.533113.1705290178200.043.353.39FF36.234189.234145450.847958445451.0227019638710.96686973351867165111117DRYL
2025-05-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025238-4756.49844.88850.693113.7589075109100.033.43.43FF24.498175.498145451.0675608455751.3129529354020.72948902538635164111123DRYL
2025-05-17 00:00:03FORECAST2025238-4745.39235.18640.289114.439763923700.022.912.93FF13.392168.392145451.3212697951651.6490995691020.29243191057023162111122DRYL
2025-05-16 20:00:04FORECAST2025238-4745.39235.18640.289114.3717165490900.022.962.98FF13.392171.392145451.2959328892951.6154905161730.29243191057023162111122DRYL
2025-05-16 16:00:03FORECAST2025238-4746.11238.58842.35113.8745065705002.892.89FF14.112177.112145451.1106676940951.3700046923510.31873236672762162111122DRYL
2025-05-16 12:00:03FORECAST2025238-4747.0342.47644.753111.76582723529002.782.78FF15.03184.03145450.322348096450.330649757530.35362061773177162111122DRYL
2025-05-16 08:00:03FORECAST2025238-4747.0342.47644.753111.67594470148002.712.71FF15.03175.03145450.2886520307750.2864106038910.35362061773177162111122DRYL
2025-05-16 04:00:04FORECAST2025238-4741.30638.91240.109112.31065440637002.682.68FF9.306170.306145450.5264338097950.5989186085460.16545166812806161111121.5DRYL