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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 25, 2025

[ Saturday, May 24, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, May 26, 2025 ]

DAY 237 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/26/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.63°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.10°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.36°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.803
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 215

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 103 in
SWE DAY: 144
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 446.26 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 45.77 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -48

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-26 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025237-4859.6339.0999249.36496102.56705208333003.13.1FF27.63214.63144446.2584700852 45.7714157438570.8029393048792316 4121123.5DRYL
2025-05-26 00:00:01FORECAST2025237-4853.3338.46245.896102.2770160.0019685050.0019685053.13.101968505FF21.33208.33144446.1467158769245.6305547980920.60671506034751163121123DRYL
2025-05-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025237-4854.3239.1146.715104.23155520.0059055150.0059055153.13.105905515FF22.32209.32144446.8982325361346.5808977933720.64136852734191163121123DRYL
2025-05-25 08:00:01FORECAST2025237-4854.6839.57847.129104.19593440.0082677210.0082677213.13.108267721FF22.68209.68144446.8845697565146.5635553147220.65370339718569163121123DRYL
2025-05-25 04:00:02FORECAST2025237-4855.07639.4747.273104.072808050.0161417410.0161417413.13.116141741FF23.076210.076144446.8373336646246.5036160560520.66708556576791163121123DRYL
2025-05-25 00:00:01FORECAST2025237-4855.86839.3847.624103.41391040.0169291430.0169291433.13.116929143FF23.868202.868144446.5843035049846.183029148710.69320779948014163121123DRYL
2025-05-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025237-4853.83438.24646.04107.17576240.0220472560.0220472563.13.122047256FF21.834198.834144448.0232551196948.0172339403830.62448203018604163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-24 16:00:01FORECAST2025237-4853.83437.7645.797107.17182640.0141732360.0141732363.13.114173236FF21.834198.834144448.0217567284448.0153099355230.62448203018604163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025237-4853.94237.83245.887105.53553280.0090551230.0090551233.13.109055123FF21.942198.942144447.3975386257847.2163376122810.62825656483777163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-24 08:00:01FORECAST2025237-4854.62638.01246.319105.4093840.0086614220.0086614223.13.108661422FF22.626201.626144447.3493072086547.154814905690.65186314059333163121123DRYL
2025-05-24 04:00:04FORECAST2025237-4854.46438.08446.274105.152658466670.0062992160.0062992163.13.106299216FF22.464201.464144447.2511036681847.0296425528590.64632104065381163121123DRYL
2025-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2025237-4853.97838.31846.148105.63044960.0165354420.0165354423.13.116535442FF21.978195.978144447.433818690847.2626354345540.62951202967608163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-23 20:00:01FORECAST2025237-4854.24838.69646.472107.18621280.0122047310.0122047313.13.112204731FF22.248196.248144448.0272333976148.0223423791510.63888326973457163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-23 16:00:01FORECAST2025237-4854.82438.8446.832107.13120720.0204724520.0204724523.13.120472452FF22.824196.824144448.0062925774947.9954549570230.65859294862871163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-23 12:00:02FORECAST2025237-4854.55439.52447.039106.3053360.0090551230.0090551233.13.109055123FF22.554196.554144447.691528594847.5919983716230.64940390146358163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-23 08:00:02FORECAST2025237-4855.14839.93847.543106.14553440.0090551230.0090551233.13.109055123FF23.148199.148144447.6305471922547.5139836454860.66949661372866163121123DRYL
2025-05-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025237-4855.29239.63247.462106.626659166670.0074803190.0074803193.13.107480319FF23.292199.292144447.8140728527847.748918516110.67429759578983163121123DRYL
2025-05-23 00:00:02FORECAST2025237-4855.34639.43447.39108.96121919120.0149606380.0149606383.093.104960638FF23.346197.346144448.701416274648.89105337010.67609059680032163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-22 20:00:02FORECAST2025237-4855.41839.1147.264109.28447520.0279527710.0279527713.143.167952771FF23.418199.418144448.8238685170649.049480928120.67847492215097163121123DRYL
2025-05-22 16:00:01FORECAST2025237-4855.56239.27247.417109.3205880.0307086780.0307086783.143.170708678FF23.562199.562144448.8375421234949.0671840214150.68322151716739163121123DRYL
2025-05-22 12:00:01FORECAST2025237-4855.14840.38847.768109.19021464860.0299212760.0299212763.143.169921276FF23.148199.148144448.7881721681649.0032768507920.66949661372866163121123DRYL
2025-05-22 08:00:01FORECAST2025237-4854.39239.23646.814109.43676510470.0149606380.0149606383.073.084960638FF22.392192.392144448.8815224518349.1241417324030.64384781587699163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-22 04:00:03FORECAST2025237-4854.3239.03846.679109.650234970470.0043307110.0043307113.073.074330711FF22.32190.32144448.9623003745949.2288217289570.64136852734191163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-22 00:00:02FORECAST2025237-4854.80641.16247.984109.418590363090.0082677210.0082677213.173.178267721FF22.806182.806144448.8746430273449.1152306897860.65798318706794163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-21 20:00:02FORECAST2025237-4856.33641.12648.731110.698797925990.0082677210.0082677213.143.148267721FF24.336184.336144449.3584458119149.7434397892710.70820576336337164111123DRYL
2025-05-21 16:00:02FORECAST2025237-4857.66841.39649.532110.587157013290.0066929170.0066929173.213.216692917FF25.668186.668144449.3163182198849.6886142316180.74891338413036164111123DRYL
2025-05-21 12:00:02FORECAST2025237-4859.59440.94650.27110.07505267464003.263.26FF27.594188.594144449.1229229840549.4372294048560.80201588871447164111123DRYL
2025-05-21 08:00:01FORECAST2025237-4860.18841.8150.999109.67496249697003.293.29FF28.188190.188144448.9716545475549.2409493747030.81691746765458164111123DRYL
2025-05-21 04:00:04FORECAST2025237-4859.59442.02650.81109.66440233051003.253.25FF27.594189.594144448.9676598153549.2357700793780.80201588871447164111123DRYL
2025-05-21 00:00:02FORECAST2025237-4858.7340.83849.784110.42141441192003.183.18FF26.73185.73144449.2537533706549.6072348770510.77908044676376164111123DRYL
2025-05-20 20:00:02FORECAST2025237-4858.6440.35249.496110.45910703262003.143.14FF26.64183.64144449.2679839705749.6257403277340.77660704794176164111123DRYL
2025-05-20 16:00:02FORECAST2025237-4858.83840.0149.424110.56788060445003.163.16FF26.838184.838144449.309043075949.6791486293170.78202776479595164111123DRYL
2025-05-20 12:00:02FORECAST2025237-4856.91238.64247.777112.0128769586200.223.113.33FF24.912176.912144449.8534154754950.3893752770730.72618170161651164112126DRYL
2025-05-20 08:00:02FORECAST2025237-4854.82436.87845.851112.1081209466400.253.173.42FF22.824170.824144449.889226533350.4362358207850.65859294862871163112125DRYL
2025-05-20 04:00:04FORECAST2025237-4854.87836.98645.932111.8343959455400.323.183.5FF22.878171.878144449.7862845588650.3015774382310.66041974694821163112125DRYL
2025-05-20 00:00:03FORECAST2025237-4854.15836.93245.545115.4637940390800.23.043.24FF22.158166.158144451.1454218501952.0909620701840.63576844919386163112125DRYL
2025-05-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025237-4856.33637.86847.102113.5571028098300.183.123.3FF24.336171.336144450.4329662387751.1498626561140.70820576336337164112126DRYL
2025-05-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025237-4856.28237.70646.994113.7629416185200.173.143.31FF24.282171.282144450.5100463610151.2513481027220.70649274843046164112126DRYL
2025-05-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025237-4853.79836.57245.185114.746471979930.0007874020.2207874023.133.350787402FF21.798165.798144450.8777915609851.7366358757260.62322118001638163112125DRYL
2025-05-19 08:00:03FORECAST2025237-4850.79235.90643.349114.739392715240.0007874020.2207874023.313.530787402FF18.792159.792144450.8751478820251.7331406583750.51458879591386163112125DRYL
2025-05-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025237-4850.70235.6943.196115.6519052278300.143.243.38FF18.702160.702144451.2155247936852.1839351107630.51127748154645163112125DRYL
2025-05-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025237-4852.2535.65443.952115.520230562570.2425198160.3625198163.173.532519816FF20.25159.25144451.1664574306652.1188531844870.56793205304177163112125DRYL
2025-05-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025237-4848.86633.13441114.599952606750.2425198160.3625198163.143.502519816FF16.866157.866144450.8230657096151.6643019643510.44387884746243162112124DRYL
2025-05-18 16:00:03FORECAST2025237-4851.7132.64842.179114.339814006270.1346457420.2546457423.063.314645742FF19.71151.71144450.72585221151.5359101096240.54826695221232163112125DRYL
2025-05-18 12:00:03FORECAST2025237-4856.71431.06443.889117.7978703022600.733.193.92TF24.714158.714144452.0128902912953.2461558254820.72006453742459164113129DRYL
2025-05-18 08:00:03FORECAST2025237-4857.05633.1745.113118.5886049674800.753.193.94TF25.056161.056144452.305605545553.638290780610.73058868967817164113129DRYL
2025-05-18 04:00:04FORECAST2025237-4859.2736.51847.894116.4731204481600.643.153.79TF27.27176.27144451.52117309952.5900799792540.79358836621464164113129DRYL
2025-05-18 00:00:03FORECAST2025237-4860.6238.42649.523116.5557168758100.53.23.7TF28.62171.62144451.5518794130752.630953011610.82730398367741164113129DRYL
2025-05-17 20:00:03FORECAST2025237-4859.48637.72448.605117.3962051502600.553.293.84TF27.486168.486144451.8639760098853.0471160276660.79923003361701164113129DRYL
2025-05-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025237-4858.137.2247.66118.2114870839500.573.253.82TF26.1166.1144452.1660768556253.451224354020.76144060348402164113129DRYL
2025-05-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025237-4858.31639.52448.92115.5290403870900.143.193.33FF26.316166.316144451.1697408436952.1232072113640.76757374153934164112126DRYL
2025-05-17 08:00:03FORECAST2025237-4857.61440.6449.127116.0173394178200.143.253.39FF25.614169.614144451.3516145712952.36461346450.74732340823357164112126DRYL
2025-05-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025237-4854.28440.147.192116.1135211109100.13.333.43FF22.284168.284144451.3874121888652.412181814390.64012663872461163112125DRYL
2025-05-17 00:00:03FORECAST2025237-4856.94840.17248.56114.886991923700.12.832.93FF24.948171.948144450.9302574605951.8060208470260.72728677853922164112126DRYL
2025-05-16 20:00:04FORECAST2025237-4856.94840.17248.56114.8189445490900.12.882.98FF24.948174.948144450.9048529661751.7724193096410.72728677853922164112126DRYL
2025-05-16 16:00:03FORECAST2025237-4857.21841.23449.226114.3849073705002.892.89FF25.218180.218144450.7427081523951.5581629199380.73550373381867164111123DRYL
2025-05-16 12:00:03FORECAST2025237-4861.66440.42451.044112.32749443529002.782.78FF29.664185.664144449.9716764451950.5441909819330.85082286130786165111123.5DRYL
2025-05-16 08:00:03FORECAST2025237-4861.66440.51451.089112.23761190148002.712.71FF29.664176.664144449.937900311550.4999554349280.85082286130786165111123.5DRYL
2025-05-16 04:00:04FORECAST2025237-4857.99239.50648.749112.44369120637002.682.68FF25.992177.992144450.015329538650.6013847527720.75834118365399164111123DRYL
2025-05-16 00:00:03FORECAST2025237-4839.39829.22834.313113.42369953412002.72.7FF7.398167.398144450.3829894052451.0841048655810.15506207820581161111121.5DRYL
2025-05-15 20:00:04FORECAST2025237-4839.39829.22834.313113.50042665329002.82.8FF7.398168.398144450.4117357343551.1219241754980.15506207820581161111121.5DRYL
2025-05-15 16:00:03FORECAST2025237-4843.3432.39637.868112.08017186093002.752.75FF11.34176.34144449.8787187752250.4224841169020.2575016714343162111122DRYL
2025-05-15 12:00:04FORECAST2025237-4835.20430.32632.765112.69354679559002.52.5FF3.204171.204144450.1091522850950.7243968161640.080379791725014161111121.5DRYL
2025-05-15 08:00:07FORECAST2025237-4835.20430.32632.765114.20631181945002.412.41FF3.204168.204144450.6759376493251.4700366647020.080379791725014161111121.5DRYL
2025-05-15 04:00:06FORECAST2025237-4831.33430.41630.875113.41578511469002.352.35FF-0.666173.334144450.3800238962451.0802040101660.03913975783418161111121.5DRYL