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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 24, 2025

[ Friday, May 23, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, May 25, 2025 ]

DAY 236 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/25/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 63.04°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.67°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.35°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.867
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 31
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 206

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.11 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 106 in
SWE DAY: 143
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 446.98 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 47.36 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -49

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-25 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025236-4963.0399237.6750.35496105.9495912500.113.13.21FF31.03992206.03992143446.98334508329 47.3577027071320.8670233804981916 5122128DRYL
2025-05-25 00:00:01FORECAST2025236-4954.55434.62844.591105.345797600.113.13.21FF22.554197.554143446.7517163160947.0634158844870.64263275941298163112125DRYL
2025-05-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025236-4953.4234.4343.925107.4034600.113.13.21FF21.42196.42143447.5396263673948.0673043589650.60477456665223163112125DRYL
2025-05-24 08:00:01FORECAST2025236-4954.96834.4344.699107.3542600.113.13.21FF22.968197.968143447.5208349580848.0432680715070.6561333035304163112125DRYL
2025-05-24 04:00:04FORECAST2025236-4955.32834.59244.96107.0897608666700.113.13.21FF23.328198.328143447.4197721100547.9140764022840.66771403168962163112125DRYL
2025-05-24 00:00:01FORECAST2025236-4955.99434.4345.212107.544723200.113.13.21FF23.994192.994143447.5935672739248.1363262985740.68871539371505163112125DRYL
2025-05-23 20:00:01FORECAST2025236-4956.31835.43845.878109.152146400.113.13.21FF24.318193.318143448.2059955548248.9226464441570.69871988813893163112125DRYL
2025-05-23 16:00:01FORECAST2025236-4956.49835.29445.896109.1254800.113.13.21FF24.498193.498143448.1958560389348.9095879242590.70421467386696164112126DRYL
2025-05-23 12:00:02FORECAST2025236-4956.4835.58246.031108.32991600.113.13.21FF24.48193.48143447.8930381469148.520215199440.70366726958878164112126DRYL
2025-05-23 08:00:02FORECAST2025236-4956.8435.85246.346108.242044800.113.13.21FF24.84194.84143447.859553929348.4772339005230.71452599500153164112126DRYL
2025-05-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025236-4956.85835.92446.391108.6686559666700.113.13.21FF24.858194.858143448.0220485559848.6859538600110.71506392682682164112126DRYL
2025-05-23 00:00:02FORECAST2025236-4956.08435.90645.995110.988751191200.13.13.2FF24.084193.084143448.9026882274949.8231487727430.69150885208115163112125DRYL
2025-05-22 20:00:02FORECAST2025236-4956.58835.18645.887111.299116800.153.13.25FF24.588194.588143449.0201007906649.9755406434480.70694470747083164112126DRYL
2025-05-22 16:00:01FORECAST2025236-4956.53435.22245.878111.324602400.153.13.25FF24.534194.534143449.0297379843749.9880570468870.70530808777632164112126DRYL
2025-05-22 12:00:01FORECAST2025236-4956.51634.745.608111.197377848600.153.13.25FF24.516194.516143448.9816227317149.9255791499740.70476161358724164112126DRYL
2025-05-22 08:00:01FORECAST2025236-4955.36433.81844.591111.375441904700.083.13.18FF23.364189.364143449.0489607087950.013026435790.66886357641055163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-22 04:00:03FORECAST2025236-4954.10433.27843.691111.5396133704700.083.13.18FF22.104187.104143449.1110179860750.0936693065850.62775365590396163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-22 00:00:02FORECAST2025236-4953.67233.65643.664111.4182751630900.213.073.28FF21.672178.672143449.0651542964450.0340649275560.61328773685878163112125DRYL
2025-05-21 20:00:02FORECAST2025236-4953.54634.03443.79112.7739555259900.183.073.25FF21.546178.546143449.5767750195150.700551231570.60903768132507163112125DRYL
2025-05-21 16:00:01FORECAST2025236-4954.12234.19644.159112.8254618132900.253.073.32FF22.122180.122143449.5961782850.7258964439340.62835266795514163112125DRYL
2025-05-21 12:00:02FORECAST2025236-4952.95233.843.376112.4690262746400.33.073.37FF20.952179.952143449.4618511713550.5505367488370.58883394587037163112125DRYL
2025-05-21 08:00:01FORECAST2025236-4953.00633.96243.484112.1363400969700.333.073.4FF21.006181.006143449.3363645255750.3869353903740.59068129162475163112125DRYL
2025-05-21 04:00:04FORECAST2025236-4952.75433.87243.313112.0836647305100.293.073.36FF20.754180.754143449.3164860601750.3610383814580.58204377856457163112125DRYL
2025-05-21 00:00:02FORECAST2025236-4952.19632.79242.494112.7477872119200.233.063.29FF20.196178.196143449.5669160152750.6876749844090.5627823028763163112125DRYL
2025-05-20 20:00:01FORECAST2025236-4950.68431.47841.081112.7372638326200.2533.25FF18.684175.684143449.5629511104150.6824970287050.5099680124158163112125DRYL
2025-05-20 16:00:02FORECAST2025236-4951.0831.44241.261112.8459390044500.2733.27FF19.08177.08143449.603891667550.7359733352760.52385532192177163112125DRYL
2025-05-20 12:00:02FORECAST2025236-4949.15430.00239.578114.124245758620.0858268180.43582681833.435826818FF17.154171.154143450.0846133267251.3655670234740.45635000720085162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 08:00:02FORECAST2025236-4947.96627.6837.823113.979098546640.1011811570.5111811573.023.531181157TF15.966166.966143450.0301076021151.2940259833350.41520965360286162113126DRYL
2025-05-20 04:00:03FORECAST2025236-4948.229.46238.831113.652139145540.1271654230.5071654233.13.607165423TF16.2168.2143449.9072540689551.1329218420340.42325453117523162113126DRYL
2025-05-20 00:00:03FORECAST2025236-4945.93229.13837.535117.246310039080.110236280.390236282.963.35023628FF13.932162.932143451.2521602719852.9076506890530.34711030117103162112124DRYL
2025-05-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025236-4947.31830.05638.687115.525299609830.0972441470.3472441473.063.407244147FF15.318166.318143450.6097056402452.0568212511870.39312610863143162112124DRYL
2025-05-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025236-4946.97628.56237.769115.718543218520.090551230.350551233.073.42055123FF14.976165.976143450.6819836866952.1522626070550.38160327410246162112124DRYL
2025-05-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025236-4944.85226.8735.861116.480673579930.188976480.368976483.093.45897648FF12.852162.852143450.9666942975552.5289043138950.31271659185331162112124DRYL
2025-05-19 08:00:03FORECAST2025236-4943.2526.70834.979116.196204715240.188976480.338976483.33.63897648TF11.25160.25143450.8604891381852.3882776939110.26463043550498162112124DRYL
2025-05-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025236-4945.8628.34637.103117.110980427830.1192914030.2392914033.253.489291403FF13.86160.86143451.2017432877252.840678527170.34477376122479162112124DRYL
2025-05-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025236-4945.7728.90437.337116.925037957380.0728346850.1528346853.253.402834685FF13.77157.77143451.1324422356752.7486779322110.34186139559896162112124DRYL
2025-05-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025236-4943.48428.50835.996115.780028033710.0728346850.1628346853.213.372834685FF11.484160.484143450.7049731397152.182634425050.27141377338909162112124DRYL
2025-05-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025236-4941.88227.69834.79115.655784085640.0732283860.1832283863.113.293228386FF9.882150.882143450.658514057552.1212637981910.22676999027645161112123DRYL
2025-05-18 12:00:03FORECAST2025236-4937.426.9632.18119.331139102260.3456694780.8656694783.164.025669478TF5.4153.4143452.0266763732253.9408581962240.12628092305382161113124.5WETL
2025-05-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025236-4940.33426.72633.53120.350161767480.3586616110.8886616113.164.048661611TF8.334155.334143452.4037546500354.4468650563440.18786731498979161113124.5WETL
2025-05-18 04:00:04FORECAST2025236-4944.52828.09436.311118.576912448160.3208663150.7308663153.173.900866315TF12.528167.528143451.7469537875453.5667589879880.30269166867777162113126DRYL
2025-05-18 00:00:03FORECAST2025236-4948.12826.99637.562118.883664075810.0570866450.5170866453.293.807086645TF16.128162.128143451.8607844556753.7188657082610.42077561049704162113126DRYL
2025-05-17 20:00:03FORECAST2025236-4946.79627.0536.923119.615321950260.0637795620.5737795623.383.953779562TF14.796159.796143452.1319333093954.0819067667940.3755797813079162113126DRYL
2025-05-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025236-4945.44626.70836.077120.289891883950.0649606650.6149606653.323.934960665TF13.446159.446143452.38147957954.4169192688610.33145558264611162113126DRYL
2025-05-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025236-4947.17428.5837.877117.758390787090.035433090.145433093.293.43543309FF15.174159.174143451.4427789377553.1611751801610.38826232674615162112124DRYL
2025-05-17 08:00:03FORECAST2025236-4948.50629.46238.984118.269715417820.035433090.145433093.353.49543309FF16.506162.506143451.6328689185453.4144908803290.43382271241902162112124DRYL
2025-05-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025236-4947.69629.60638.651118.145874710910.0303149770.1103149773.433.540314977FF15.696164.696143451.5868525662953.3531237043920.40597128211916162112124DRYL
2025-05-17 00:00:03FORECAST2025236-4947.76829.2138.489117.02443672370.0248031630.1348031632.913.044803163FF15.768165.768143451.169492384452.7978557132010.40842996045571162112124DRYL
2025-05-16 20:00:04FORECAST2025236-4947.76831.92839.848116.956389349090.0248031630.1348031632.963.094803163FF15.768168.768143451.14412924352.7641884323030.40842996045571162112124DRYL
2025-05-16 16:00:03FORECAST2025236-4949.02831.8240.424116.596644170500.022.983FF17.028174.028143451.0099693768452.5862489167780.45195637962512162111122DRYL
2025-05-16 12:00:03FORECAST2025236-4948.52432.23440.379114.5614696352900.022.872.89FF16.524174.524143450.2486783863851.5811502972880.43444592285289162111122DRYL
2025-05-16 08:00:03FORECAST2025236-4948.52432.1840.352114.4778847014800.012.812.82FF16.524165.524143450.2173278366551.5399273466910.43444592285289162111122DRYL
2025-05-16 04:00:04FORECAST2025236-4950.34232.12641.234114.4999560063700.012.782.79FF18.342171.342143450.2256068597651.5508121783840.49796407612708162111122DRYL
2025-05-16 00:00:03FORECAST2025236-4951.9836.96844.474113.6327011341200.12.712.81FF19.98178.98143449.8999471094751.1233462301490.55528348458789163112125DRYL
2025-05-15 20:00:03FORECAST2025236-4951.9836.96844.474113.7094282532900.12.812.91FF19.98179.98143449.9287875680151.1611451890550.55528348458789163112125DRYL
2025-05-15 16:00:03FORECAST2025236-4954.1439.25446.697112.4238830609300.082.782.86FF22.14184.14143449.4448297188150.5283329786480.62895136951075163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-15 12:00:04FORECAST2025236-4953.634.39443.997112.7220827955900.092.522.61FF21.6186.6143449.5572311481450.6750274308380.61086076089066163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-15 08:00:06FORECAST2025236-4953.13234.39443.763114.2348478194500.092.432.52FF21.132184.132143450.1261331578151.420090320840.59498387582936163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-15 04:00:06FORECAST2025236-4952.91632.1842.548113.41578511469002.462.46FF20.916192.916143449.8183815424251.0165049016530.58760128424556163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-15 00:00:03FORECAST2025236-4931.60426.629.102116.4036504495900.092.312.4FF-0.396170.604143450.9379456370452.4908229983910.048931930715091161111121.5DRYL
2025-05-14 20:00:03FORECAST2025236-4948.72233.1740.946114.7136106709900.092.272.36FF16.722196.722143450.3057254785651.6561956754670.44131165583298162111122DRYL
2025-05-14 16:00:03FORECAST2025236-4950.30633.63841.972115.5790397706600.042.362.4FF18.306192.306143450.6298093945652.0833606618610.49670042253758162111122DRYL
2025-05-14 12:00:03FORECAST2025236-4941.05434.4337.742116.203803856300.212.552.76FF9.054196.054143450.8633272407152.3920336446790.20542353350695161112123DRYL
2025-05-14 08:00:03FORECAST2025236-4941.05434.4337.742114.0073260668200.212.612.82FF9.054194.054143450.0407091829951.3079378751670.20542353350695161112123DRYL
2025-05-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025236-4934.64633.38634.016115.3698061658200.32.542.84FF2.646169.646143450.551521356151.9800416865680.082740394040594161112123DRYL