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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 23, 2025

[ Thursday, May 22, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, May 24, 2025 ]

DAY 235 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/24/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.89°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.97°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.93°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.523
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 203

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.14 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 109 in
SWE DAY: 142
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.51 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 48.70 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -50

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-24 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025235-5050.8899232.9700241.92997108.8252416666700.143.073.21FF18.88992202.88992142447.51125451261 48.7005204208880.5228094799093316 3122126DRYL
2025-05-24 00:00:01FORECAST2025235-5045.35630.54237.949109.29693200.143.073.21FF13.356197.356142447.6913263900248.931288457440.33442044500013162112124DRYL
2025-05-23 12:00:02FORECAST2025235-5045.03230.50637.769110.2300200.143.073.21FF13.032197.032142448.046905947649.3882194035420.32414724577574162112124DRYL
2025-05-23 08:00:02FORECAST2025235-5046.11230.4738.291110.186920800.143.073.21FF14.112198.112142448.0305003365349.3671012565650.3588670234877162112124DRYL
2025-05-23 04:00:03FORECAST2025235-5046.1329.98438.057110.5713183666700.143.073.21FF14.13198.13142448.1767569809349.5554948806790.35945667463231162112124DRYL
2025-05-23 00:00:02FORECAST2025235-5046.56230.21838.39112.833554391200.133.073.2FF14.562196.562142449.0346116278250.666171274640.37370574271618162112124DRYL
2025-05-22 20:00:02FORECAST2025235-5046.47230.18238.327113.142050400.183.073.25FF14.472198.472142449.151213858850.8178892756340.37072217054345162112124DRYL
2025-05-22 16:00:01FORECAST2025235-5046.45429.98438.219113.14441200.183.073.25FF14.454198.454142449.1521061203650.819050945550.37012638090526162112124DRYL
2025-05-22 12:00:01FORECAST2025235-5046.4930.66838.579112.970841048600.183.073.25FF14.49198.49142449.0865131462450.7336810937120.37131827021055162112124DRYL
2025-05-22 08:00:01FORECAST2025235-5044.72629.69637.211113.005733104700.113.073.18FF12.726193.726142449.099701279550.7508409801940.31456595334811162112124DRYL
2025-05-22 04:00:03FORECAST2025235-5043.80830.00236.905113.0918733704700.113.073.18FF11.808192.808142449.1322546691850.7932080716410.28658134438872162112124DRYL
2025-05-22 00:00:01FORECAST2025235-5043.7929.7536.77112.9741759630900.213.073.28FF11.79184.79142449.0877736927550.7353211680370.28604460987902162112124DRYL
2025-05-21 20:00:02FORECAST2025235-5044.4229.55236.986114.3196227259900.183.073.25FF12.42185.42142449.5954617807251.3975835700910.30510783929732162112124DRYL
2025-05-21 16:00:01FORECAST2025235-5045.39229.4837.436114.4173770132900.253.073.32FF13.392186.392142449.6322806168251.4457461686830.33556977898903162112124DRYL
2025-05-21 12:00:02FORECAST2025235-5045.87829.91237.895113.9320374746400.33.073.37FF13.878186.878142449.4493890352851.206684634520.35123259206341162112124DRYL
2025-05-21 08:00:01FORECAST2025235-5045.69830.30838.003113.6559312969700.333.073.4FF13.698187.698142449.3452426679751.0707520292890.34540032228238162112124DRYL
2025-05-21 04:00:04FORECAST2025235-5045.62629.96637.796113.5751135305100.293.073.36FF13.626187.626142449.3147446440551.030973133880.34307755456819162112124DRYL
2025-05-21 00:00:02FORECAST2025235-5044.76229.78637.274114.1701592119200.243.053.29FF12.762185.762142449.5391491539351.3239562308950.31568687228836162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 20:00:01FORECAST2025235-5043.62829.22836.428113.9647054326200.262.993.25FF11.628184.628142449.4617064531851.2227709791790.28123560053728162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 16:00:02FORECAST2025235-5043.98829.67836.833114.096603004450.0011811030.2811811032.993.271181103FF11.988185.988142449.5114278961251.2877269346280.29197475783247162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 12:00:02FORECAST2025235-5041.01829.37235.195114.894802723180.1322835360.3622835362.993.352283536FF9.018182.018142449.8119701693151.6810575751280.20956284554229161112123DRYL
2025-05-20 08:00:02FORECAST2025235-5038.6628.83233.746114.453213872580.1480315760.42803157633.428031576FF6.66178.66142449.6457761640651.4634041862090.15512761787625161112123DRYL
2025-05-20 04:00:03FORECAST2025235-5038.73230.12834.43114.217241817550.1885827790.3985827793.083.478582779FF6.732179.732142449.5568905402651.347148077580.1566378940532161112123DRYL
2025-05-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025235-5038.40829.24633.827117.723267440440.0862205190.2862205192.953.236220519FF6.408177.408142450.8720664737753.0781328629150.14991739361058161112123DRYL
2025-05-19 20:00:01FORECAST2025235-5039.23629.89434.565116.173082943280.0807087050.2607087053.053.310708705FF7.236179.236142450.2920073659952.3118107204270.16747919610109161112123DRYL
2025-05-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025235-5038.60629.76834.187116.28582756560.0822835090.2722835093.063.332283509FF6.606178.606142450.3342720127552.3674935021550.15400122395027161112123DRYL
2025-05-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025235-5038.89430.2934.592116.867493687920.0255905650.1955905653.073.265590565FF6.894177.894142450.5521293597852.6548981340350.160071193755161112123DRYL
2025-05-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025235-5037.3130.12833.719116.393522647250.0255905650.1655905653.283.445590565FF5.31177.31142450.3746324342352.4206899799820.12858560659087161112123DRYL
2025-05-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025235-5038.15630.25434.205117.588545681180.0212598540.1412598543.233.371259854FF6.156175.156142450.8217458954453.0114734612970.14482488007204161112123DRYL
2025-05-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025235-5039.66830.18234.925117.483863269170.0496063260.0996063263.233.329606326FF7.668171.668142450.7826335695852.9596852864060.17714642739819161112123DRYL
2025-05-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025235-5040.78430.68635.735116.147059327990.0496063260.0996063263.23.299606326FF8.784176.784142450.2822501577452.298959223410.20370723638184161112123DRYL
2025-05-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025235-5039.27229.9334.601115.90799474680.0500000270.1200000273.13.220000027FF7.272169.272142450.1925858914752.1809198805580.1682716038446161112123DRYL
2025-05-18 12:00:03FORECAST2025235-5039.97429.91234.943118.029544283720.3783466610.5283466613.153.678346661TF7.974175.974142450.9864013734253.2297194322610.1842025116127161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025235-5039.61429.22834.421119.248178861270.3866143820.5366143823.153.686614382TF7.614174.614142451.4404446412553.8334508877930.17591915221257161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025235-5042.60230.97436.788118.154043813410.3192915110.4092915113.173.579291511TF10.602182.602142451.0328523402553.2913553966990.25171703249089162112124DRYL
2025-05-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025235-5037.79629.17433.485119.538723054910.4393703160.4993703163.253.749370316TF5.796173.796142451.5484893212953.9775298108410.13775356382214161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-17 20:00:03FORECAST2025235-5036.5928.77832.684119.919192309420.4850396320.5550396323.333.885039632TF4.59172.59142451.689853918954.1662824563120.11579434627518161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025235-5036.24828.43632.342120.568799607860.5110238980.6310238983.243.871023898TF4.248174.248142451.9309021112754.4887663732510.11004492408115161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025235-5037.4930.41633.953118.349519353950.1027559610.1227559613.283.402755961FF5.49172.49142451.1057549354953.3881492744160.13193064942379161112123DRYL
2025-05-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025235-5036.42830.54233.485119.079126922660.1027559610.1227559613.343.462755961FF4.428174.428142451.3775425871353.7496436837690.11304496233826161112123DRYL
2025-05-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025235-5037.38231.20834.295118.982577192880.0685039740.0885039743.423.508503974FF5.382177.382142451.3416055534553.7017874231230.12991651350873161111121.5DRYL
2025-05-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025235-5038.91228.90433.908117.967502421240.0822835090.1722835092.853.022283509FF6.912177.912142450.9632479741953.1990080472840.16045567825238161112123DRYL
2025-05-16 20:00:03FORECAST2025235-5042.15230.5636.356117.923454075680.0822835090.1722835092.93.072283509FF10.152181.152142450.946807359653.1772051282440.23930566230836161112123DRYL
2025-05-16 16:00:03FORECAST2025235-5043.84429.89436.869117.785611370500.062.943FF11.844184.844142450.8953470304253.108984114090.28765624266364162111122DRYL
2025-05-16 12:00:03FORECAST2025235-5045.55429.5737.562115.7903872352900.062.832.89FF13.554185.554142450.1484556868752.1228639973480.34076069784081162111122DRYL
2025-05-16 08:00:03FORECAST2025235-5045.46427.55436.509115.7062119014800.042.782.82FF13.464177.464142450.1168622392352.0813170426810.33787305620309162111122DRYL
2025-05-16 04:00:04FORECAST2025235-5045.44627.6836.563115.7911608063700.042.752.79FF13.446181.446142450.1487459992452.1232458347840.33729666368034162111122DRYL
2025-05-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025235-5048.12831.11839.623115.225600334120.0019685050.1119685052.72.811968505FF16.128187.128142449.9363453132451.844185500860.42668366385308162112124DRYL
2025-05-15 20:00:03FORECAST2025235-5048.12831.11839.623115.302327453290.0019685050.1119685052.82.911968505FF16.128188.128142449.9651786789451.8820323746170.42668366385308162112124DRYL
2025-05-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025235-5050.32433.29641.81114.3790910609300.092.772.86FF18.324190.324142449.6178614257951.4268823146420.50303749985262163111122.5DRYL
2025-05-15 12:00:04FORECAST2025235-5045.35635.02440.19114.296187595590.0031496080.1231496082.492.613149608FF13.356193.356142449.5866336560551.3860382208230.33442044500013162112124DRYL
2025-05-15 08:00:06FORECAST2025235-5044.34832.66638.507115.696579819450.0035433090.1635433092.362.523543309FF12.348191.348142450.1132466083752.0765631640170.30290086087562162112124DRYL
2025-05-15 04:00:06FORECAST2025235-5045.7732.01838.894114.775574714690.0035433090.0135433092.452.463543309FF13.77199.77142449.7671165261151.6222792870540.34772892350631162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-15 00:00:03FORECAST2025235-5042.29628.90435.6116.4036504495900.12.32.4FF10.296199.296142450.3784274191452.4256930353340.24324060656955161122124DRYL
2025-05-14 20:00:03FORECAST2025235-5045.66230.90238.282114.9587250709900.12.262.36FF13.662207.662142449.8360121992551.7125744534460.34423820437864162122125DRYL
2025-05-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025235-5046.11231.02838.57115.8564293706600.052.352.4FF14.112202.112142450.1732384900252.1554640096820.3588670234877162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-14 12:00:03FORECAST2025235-5058.15432.4545.302116.39863585630.0204724520.2504724522.512.760472452FF26.154215.154142450.3765484150352.4232158571790.75609395676695164122127DRYL
2025-05-14 08:00:03FORECAST2025235-5058.15432.3645.257114.202158066820.0216535550.2516535552.572.821653555FF26.154213.154142449.5512070023551.339718001210.75609395676695164122127DRYL
2025-05-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025235-5050.73831.47841.108115.402868565820.023622060.343622062.52.84362206FF18.738194.738142450.0029526255451.9316315960750.51750522293636163112125DRYL
2025-05-14 00:00:03FORECAST2025235-5038.24628.7633.503115.700694320530.0342519870.3742519871.872.244251987FF6.246192.246142450.1147910949452.0785938536260.14663013466952161112123DRYL
2025-05-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025235-5038.24628.7633.503115.905182653760.0342519870.3742519871.932.304251987FF6.246194.246142450.1915308555452.1795316129890.14663013466952161112123DRYL
2025-05-13 16:00:03FORECAST2025235-5035.83431.71233.773114.2655868029800.281.742.02FF3.834200.834142449.5751054013651.37096323070.10336194701551161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025235-5047.17439.2943.232114.1659665071300.031.881.91FF15.174216.174142449.5375691810651.321891066820.39418654002062162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-13 08:00:03FORECAST2025235-5053.13250.03651.584114.7889528803800.031.921.95FF21.132217.132142449.7721500760951.6288741419920.60012934529213163121123DRYL
2025-05-13 04:00:05FORECAST2025235-5053.45653.16853.312114.8345708541500.031.831.86FF21.456220.456142449.7893126043951.651362687710.61105680109342163121123DRYL