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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 20, 2025

[ Monday, May 19, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, May 21, 2025 ]

DAY 232 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/21/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.84°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.45°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.14°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.079
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 192

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.25 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.87 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.34 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 115 in
SWE DAY: 139
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.26 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.67 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -53

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-21 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025232-5334.8400429.4499432.14499115.272079166670.250.872.343.21FF2.84004191.84004139448.2575755954 51.6715827410910.07896903376326116 1113124.5DRYL
2025-05-21 00:00:02FORECAST2025232-5333.2625.08829.174115.690142268350.2267717760.8467717762.343.186771776FF1.26190.26139448.416393596951.8773563706850.057099902359776161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-20 12:00:02FORECAST2025232-5334.59225.53830.065115.456973449820.1704725330.7904725332.343.130472533FF2.592191.592139448.3278358890151.7625750450510.075169623330606161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-20 08:00:01FORECAST2025232-5333.9825.08829.534115.350148257950.1751969450.7951969452.343.135196945FF1.98190.98139448.2872460716951.7100002965160.0663905440035161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-20 04:00:03FORECAST2025232-5334.37626.61830.497115.454586421840.2551182480.8751182482.343.215118248FF2.376191.376139448.3269290225951.7614001720770.071975567759499161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025232-5334.01626.54630.281118.918476821850.2425198160.7525198162.343.092519816FF2.016189.016139449.6371427565953.4701641391430.066884025780774161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-19 20:00:01FORECAST2025232-5334.14226.4230.281117.483330252580.2551182480.8451182482.343.185118248FF2.142189.142139449.0956980148552.761258204890.068633502625945161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025232-5333.99824.96229.48117.539239753510.2657481750.8557481752.343.195748175FF1.998188.998139449.1168282330852.7888505510220.066636932546603161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-19 12:00:01FORECAST2025232-5333.4426.20429.822118.055471091310.2775592050.8675592052.343.207559205FF1.44188.44139449.3117889871353.0437149157570.059320996353659161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025232-5333.6226.58230.101117.526558302840.255905651.075905652.343.41590565TF1.62188.62139449.1120357183152.7825918503540.061609034795788161114126DRYL
2025-05-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025232-5333.51226.02429.768118.287199317750.2925198431.0325198432.343.372519843TF1.512188.512139449.3992207437153.1581751973540.060228113456263161114126DRYL
2025-05-19 00:00:01FORECAST2025232-5332.64826.1529.399118.514750693220.3023623681.0323623682.343.372362368TF0.648182.648139449.4850264980153.2706058557480.05003310685668161114126DRYL
2025-05-18 20:00:01FORECAST2025232-5332.61226.38429.498117.420952049790.2507875371.0007875372.343.340787537TF0.612184.612139449.0721194988952.7304758105780.049640094337172161114126DRYL
2025-05-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025232-5332.46825.93429.201116.907337947990.2374017030.8974017032.343.237401703FF0.468183.468139448.8778349472552.4771127475390.048092539941093161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025232-5333.51226.5130.011118.34673498360.2551182480.9451182482.343.285118248TF1.512185.512139449.4216754215153.1875879169940.060228113456263161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025232-5333.54826.58230.065118.876578036950.2897639360.9497639362.343.289763936TF1.548185.548139449.6213633517153.449449087560.060685711913684161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025232-5334.30426.58230.443118.918053884220.3137796970.9737796972.343.313779697TF2.304186.304139449.6369834834153.469955030220.070934253830652161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025232-5334.01626.70830.362120.029847151270.2496064340.9596064342.433.389606434TF2.016182.016139450.0550809331254.0200425740530.066884025780774161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-17 20:00:02FORECAST2025232-5334.28626.7830.533119.774009097020.2062993240.9762993242.493.466299324TF2.286183.286139449.9589758452653.8933904661770.070675736168235161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-17 16:00:01FORECAST2025232-5334.41226.88830.65119.495381666740.2070867260.8870867262.493.377086726TF2.412185.412139449.8542389021753.7555039720140.072500585655479161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025232-5334.46626.79830.632119.555048310360.2374017030.9274017032.493.417401703TF2.466184.466139449.8766740219953.7850274964020.073293587584127161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025232-5334.86227.51831.19119.991832028990.2196851580.9296851582.553.479685158TF2.862185.862139450.0408045734854.0012206285750.079312273182095161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-17 04:00:03FORECAST2025232-5335.13227.33831.235120.330883198920.1858268720.8858268722.673.555826872TF3.132187.132139450.1680846157854.1691232097830.083624873600739161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025232-5334.8826.4230.65118.773964202920.0976378480.7276378482.262.987637848FF2.88187.88139449.5827110986753.3987208342840.079594455367364161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-16 20:00:02FORECAST2025232-5335.09626.83430.965119.155947614250.0929134360.7229134362.323.042913436FF3.096188.096139449.7265443608553.5875925605970.08303992111298161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025232-5336.12226.94231.532119.192339633520.1031496620.7031496622.383.083149662FF4.122190.122139449.7402402492353.6055914626490.10094318777285161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025232-5336.0527.33831.694117.117405337880.0740157880.6240157882.352.974015788FF4.05190.05139448.9573276688652.5807173240050.099601938079783161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025232-5335.40227.1431.271116.984190968220.0736220870.5636220872.362.923622087FF3.402186.402139448.9069222289452.5150131169860.088110712886324161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-16 04:00:04FORECAST2025232-5336.64427.1431.892117.201279055240.055118140.575118142.312.88511814FF4.644187.644139448.989054923252.6220915188040.11106120581293161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025232-5335.22227.84231.532117.182248044730.094488240.834488242.012.84448824FF3.222189.222139448.9818565777952.6127032850830.085100746538942161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025232-5335.34827.8631.604117.28387231860.094488240.854488242.092.94448824FF3.348189.348139449.020291210552.6628385027950.08719953316864161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025232-5335.29428.20231.748116.820387660550.0724409840.7824409842.132.912440984FF3.294188.294139448.8449192115852.4342374617630.086295384332425161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-15 12:00:03FORECAST2025232-5338.17428.50833.341116.53305318990.031496080.541496082.092.63149608FF6.174193.174139448.7360947013952.2925871920660.14482112694409161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-15 08:00:04FORECAST2025232-5338.2127.35632.783117.289281686260.031496080.451496082.052.50149608FF6.21193.21139449.0223367729552.6655073411870.14569069346697161112123DRYL
2025-05-15 04:00:05FORECAST2025232-5338.327.80633.053116.965010785620.0318897810.5018897812.092.591889781FF6.3198.3139448.8996634574652.5055539779640.14787989645506161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-15 00:00:03FORECAST2025232-5337.36427.60832.486118.183331969970.1322835360.5822835361.862.442283536FF5.364201.364139449.3600376447453.1068665030080.12617528221666161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025232-5336.55428.25632.405117.656225606180.145669370.575669371.822.39566937FF4.554203.554139449.1610317019452.8465916794280.10926692567173161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025232-5334.726.70830.704118.661093295350.1472441740.5972441741.892.487244174FF2.7197.7139449.5401836070253.3429296669990.076806505678904161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-14 12:00:03FORECAST2025232-5338.28225.98832.135119.14662578610.3500001890.8800001891.772.650000189FF6.282201.282139449.7230359506953.5829822718050.14744030815563161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 08:00:03FORECAST2025232-5338.60625.93432.27116.86910920830.3696852390.9296852391.782.709685239FF6.606199.606139448.8633640436252.4582615120190.15548673931033161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025232-5336.2325.8831.055117.4666939030.3716537440.9216537441.722.641653744FF4.23192.23139449.0894099586152.7530482546860.10297959516075161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-14 00:00:03FORECAST2025232-5338.24629.94834.097116.649740515820.267716680.527716681.482.00771668FF6.246199.246139448.7802982149952.3501053353910.14656375342386161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025232-5338.15629.46233.809116.93989179380.267716680.527716681.542.06771668FF6.156201.156139448.8901565990752.4931663399950.1443876532754161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025232-5338.94830.0234.484115.858574731570.0649606650.3249606651.561.884960665FF6.948205.948139448.4803317647351.9602920334020.16428795177316161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025232-5336.87830.2933.584116.364131356760.0893701270.4993701271.522.019370127FF4.878199.878139448.6720804869452.2093369098910.11582450658818161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 08:00:03FORECAST2025232-5337.32831.65834.493117.53100847750.0893701270.4993701271.562.059370127FF5.328197.328139449.1137175251752.7847881418120.12538719943166161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-13 04:00:05FORECAST2025232-5337.43631.9134.673117.193953390070.0649606650.4649606651.511.974960665FF5.436199.436139448.9862840832452.6184776496310.12776175802054161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025232-5341.19834.32237.76115.124369433210.0610236550.3110236551.221.531023655FF9.198214.198139448.2014218098351.5989060649240.22997480053932161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025232-5341.1834.28637.733115.07302624120.0610236550.3010236551.281.581023655FF9.18215.18139448.1818980895851.5736473196920.22939707235281161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 16:00:03FORECAST2025232-5343.08835.81639.452115.167811017120.0559055420.3159055421.291.605905542FF11.088216.088139448.2179388826651.6202788797210.29493599745188162122125DRYL
2025-05-12 12:00:03FORECAST2025232-5340.22633.2636.743114.655727083270.4208663690.5708663691.361.930866369FF8.226219.226139448.0231217736251.3684167770720.19996182110724161123126DRYL
2025-05-12 08:00:03FORECAST2025232-5340.22633.2636.743114.591071897020.4610238710.6210238711.321.941023871FF8.226220.226139447.9985063460651.336629050460.19996182110724161123126DRYL
2025-05-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025232-5342.1734.19638.183113.066651772470.0606299540.1206299541.461.580629954FF10.17222.17139447.4169585399950.587937448340.26235056273055162122125DRYL
2025-05-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025232-5345.69834.14239.92113.279715174410.0188976480.0988976481.081.178897648FF13.698225.698139447.4983750764850.6924884696730.39627861359003162122125DRYL
2025-05-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025232-5345.12233.65639.389113.76973647660.0204724520.1104724521.121.230472452FF13.122222.122139447.6854566266650.9330564248210.37300421318252162122125DRYL
2025-05-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025232-5345.80633.33239.569114.293385412430.0031496080.0131496081.311.323149608FF13.806219.806139447.8851194165451.1903065739670.40068683118039162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025232-5337.11226.22231.667116.808745699530.2846458230.5546458231.251.804645823FF5.112208.112139448.8405115010852.4284971675760.12073064666744161123126DRYL
2025-05-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025232-5337.11226.22231.667116.851581378390.2846458230.5546458231.341.894645823FF5.112207.112139448.8567286823552.4496185588630.12073064666744161123126DRYL
2025-05-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025232-5341.12631.20836.167117.881334193040.2712599890.3812599891.451.831259989FF9.126209.126139449.2460527373152.9577240776320.22766876937613161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 00:00:03FORECAST2025232-5334.4331.89233.161118.530594387140.0043307110.2743307111.21.474330711FF2.43188.43139449.4909990390253.2784352877640.072764188561349161112123DRYL
2025-05-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025232-5336.21232.84634.529119.278336085140.0043307110.2743307111.151.424330711FF4.212195.212139449.7725993975553.648127272830.10263814390165161112123DRYL
2025-05-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025232-5336.35634.05235.204118.412711162260.0047244120.2747244121.091.364724412FF4.356197.356139449.4465552592553.2201851307840.10539280314089161112123DRYL
2025-05-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025232-5331.5529.01230.281122.632063857010.0653543661.5553543661.222.775354366FF-0.45193.55139451.029058846655.3106243458420.039110985293401161115127.5DRYL
2025-05-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025232-5331.5529.01230.281122.463888424920.0653543661.5553543661.22.755354366FF-0.45194.55139450.9663072315555.2270875322040.039110985293401161115127.5DRYL
2025-05-10 04:00:05FORECAST2025232-5328.3125.53826.924122.146610901260.0106299271.4206299271.132.550629927FF-3.69184.31139450.8478478598655.0695366482080.017625104314694161114126DRYL