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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 19, 2025

[ Sunday, May 18, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, May 20, 2025 ]

DAY 231 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/20/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.60°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.17°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.39°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.181
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 216

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.56 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.81 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.96 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 115 in
SWE DAY: 138
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.57 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.45 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -54

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-20 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025231-5437.5999829.1700433.38501114.963680833330.560000000000060.810000000000062.152.9600000000001FF5.59998215.59998138447.57014054995 51.4543107887150.1814160595151716 1123126DRYL
2025-05-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025231-5436.1428.41832.279118.431214367170.4500002430.7000002432.152.850000243FF4.14214.14138448.8883624108653.162393875610.14840580246674161123126DRYL
2025-05-19 12:00:01FORECAST2025231-5436.06827.01431.541117.653553572350.5311026490.7811026492.152.931102649FF4.068214.068138448.593735032452.7786470368560.14688875154635161123126DRYL
2025-05-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025231-5435.92426.85231.388117.15221560040.7582681261.0082681262.153.158268126FF3.924213.924138448.4034875614952.5314620507730.14388586767031161124128DRYL
2025-05-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025231-5435.99626.6931.343117.702199410870.6838586370.9338586372.153.083858637FF3.996213.996138448.6121822389852.8026405320380.14538210890945161123126DRYL
2025-05-19 00:00:01FORECAST2025231-5436.39226.09631.244117.846459469170.606299540.916299542.153.06629954FF4.392209.392138448.6668743422252.873802622330.15379752538306161123126DRYL
2025-05-18 20:00:01FORECAST2025231-5436.6826.4231.55116.91762275180.6019688290.9419688292.153.091968829FF4.68210.68138448.3143811521152.4158516897480.16011591674115161123126DRYL
2025-05-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025231-5436.0526.22231.136116.435924084870.5122050010.8522050012.153.002205001FF4.05210.05138448.1312489517952.1785760830070.1465111153651161123126DRYL
2025-05-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025231-5436.62626.34831.487117.703206845520.5374018650.8774018652.153.027401865FF4.626210.626138448.612564248752.8031374432660.15891850423289161123126DRYL
2025-05-18 08:00:01FORECAST2025231-5436.57226.99631.784117.871010596490.5338585560.8538585562.153.003858556FF4.572210.572138448.6761802093952.8859147918550.15772695998577161123126DRYL
2025-05-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025231-5436.80626.4231.613117.82946119230.5129924030.8529924032.153.002992403FF4.806210.806138448.6604309699152.8654168394910.16293269824732161123126DRYL
2025-05-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025231-5436.60826.02431.316119.122045562350.5208664230.9908664232.153.140866423FF4.608206.608138449.1496055354453.5036197749030.1585206707832161124128DRYL
2025-05-17 20:00:02FORECAST2025231-5436.69826.4231.559119.053959761440.5468506891.1068506892.153.256850689TF4.698207.698138449.1238787249953.4699761856260.16051635826412161124128DRYL
2025-05-17 16:00:01FORECAST2025231-5437.70626.4232.063118.831804470880.4673230871.0173230872.153.167323087FF5.706209.706138449.0399044727353.3602221279280.18397963856134161124128DRYL
2025-05-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025231-5437.47226.02431.748118.838755490590.5047246821.0347246822.153.184724682FF5.472209.472138449.0425326623653.3636557439380.17835136647605161124128DRYL
2025-05-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025231-5437.99426.56432.279119.21862206630.5267719381.1067719382.153.256771938TF5.994209.994138449.1860901747153.551346721980.19105637639774161124128DRYL
2025-05-17 04:00:03FORECAST2025231-5438.13826.16832.153119.710708280680.5051183831.2151183832.153.365118383TF6.138211.138138449.37185142453.7946226153670.19465636718869161124128DRYL
2025-05-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025231-5437.88625.98831.937118.476292792610.3905513921.1405513921.752.890551392FF5.886211.886138448.9054231475153.1846503490150.18838330485563161124128DRYL
2025-05-16 20:00:02FORECAST2025231-5438.13826.43832.288118.889000353610.3751970531.1751970531.772.945197053FF6.138212.138138449.0615289307253.3884762718360.19465636718869161124128DRYL
2025-05-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025231-5438.51626.38432.45118.972623244390.3429135711.2129135711.772.982913571FF6.516212.516138449.0931391837153.4297888497460.20430040538692161124128DRYL
2025-05-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025231-5438.42626.6932.558117.069120250250.3618112191.1318112191.772.901811219FF6.426213.426138448.371931170252.4905075269990.20197882332395161124128DRYL
2025-05-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025231-5437.59826.99632.297116.967372146290.267716681.067716681.782.84771668FF5.598209.598138448.3332821145652.4403658546610.18136839604605161124128DRYL
2025-05-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025231-5438.37226.65432.513117.252844052620.267716681.077716681.752.82771668FF6.372210.372138448.441693429452.5810639463680.20059346987818161124128DRYL
2025-05-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025231-5438.40827.03232.72117.064922704880.5342522571.2342522571.522.754252257FF6.408213.408138448.3703369285452.48843883570.20151640510097161124128DRYL
2025-05-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025231-5438.37225.19631.784117.172875984260.5515751011.2515751011.62.851575101FF6.372213.372138448.4113325401952.5416454576680.20059346987818161124128DRYL
2025-05-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025231-5437.8526.6932.27116.744476619110.492126251.202126251.642.84212625FF5.85211.85138448.2485802484752.3305458963670.18749742083636161124128DRYL
2025-05-15 12:00:03FORECAST2025231-5439.21827.57233.395116.743316467710.1539370910.9839370911.622.603937091FF7.218214.218138448.2481392573252.329974377380.22294615221453161123126DRYL
2025-05-15 08:00:04FORECAST2025231-5438.91226.97832.945117.482601777930.1539370910.8639370911.612.473937091FF6.912213.912138448.5288895531552.6943409172710.21470215441388161123126DRYL
2025-05-15 04:00:05FORECAST2025231-5439.9227.71633.818117.172082196870.1444882670.9144882671.652.564488267FF7.92218.92138448.4110311378552.5412541984650.24252316864408161123126DRYL
2025-05-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025231-5440.51429.35434.934117.863025588850.3291340360.8291340361.482.309134036FF8.514222.514138448.6731536332152.88197538770.25978828334803162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025231-5440.5530.8335.69117.33544825190.3429135710.7829135711.472.252913571FF8.55225.55138448.4730486845852.62178619630.2608546393539162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025231-5439.63229.76834.7118.129935872890.346456880.856456881.482.33645688FF7.632221.632138448.7742880042853.0136778633460.23438110142882161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025231-5438.9329.08434.007117.56745967410.4641734790.8941734791.412.304173479FF6.93221.93138448.5610813919152.7361868479150.21518214678631161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 08:00:03FORECAST2025231-5437.00428.34632.675115.658984126180.492126250.942126251.42.34212625FF5.004220.004138447.8353993577251.7961873454580.16742359035427161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025231-5436.6828.56232.621116.064240664150.496063260.856063261.412.26606326FF4.68214.68138447.9897891211651.9955946996410.16011591674115161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025231-5439.77630.234.988116.336368026770.0362204920.6462204921.091.736220492FF7.776219.776138448.0933717812952.1295554099040.23843313605194161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025231-5439.07430.54234.808116.560833402950.0362204920.6962204921.11.796220492FF7.074222.074138448.1787584966452.2400896038680.21904440391111161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025231-5439.39830.43434.916116.129841327260.0366141930.6966141931.121.816614193FF7.398226.398138448.0147659316852.0278836799160.22787845209327161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025231-5439.6530.00234.826116.275185663610.2850395240.8150395241.111.925039524FF7.65221.65138448.070089542552.0994328518620.23488551603452161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 08:00:03FORECAST2025231-5440.38829.7535.069117.54657249310.2850395240.8150395241.151.965039524FF8.388219.388138448.5531582384152.725886331880.25607380554104162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-13 04:00:05FORECAST2025231-5440.40629.78635.096117.322761303240.2866143280.8066143281.11.906614328FF8.406221.406138448.4682333459752.6155314929340.25660274639647162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025231-5445.6830.9238.3115.688574986850.0043307110.5643307110.911.474330711FF13.68231.68138447.8466779072251.810743979680.43148698237286162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025231-5446.32832.01839.173115.757888858610.0047244120.5347244120.991.524724412FF14.328233.328138447.8730935546951.8448437864640.4548326385557162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-12 16:00:03FORECAST2025231-5447.3931.02839.209116.122094217120.0098425250.5698425250.981.549842525FF15.39232.39138448.0118165120252.0240703673930.49339579246255162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025231-5444.38431.78438.084114.502689960320.0531496350.6231496350.891.513149635FF12.384238.384138447.3940136945451.2278180401710.38558384447881162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-12 08:00:03FORECAST2025231-5444.36631.92838.147114.311471129440.0649606650.6349606650.851.484960665FF12.366239.366138447.3208958094451.1339096669170.38495587664992162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025231-5443.62832.95438.291113.8690053724700.590.931.52FF11.628238.628138447.1515703907850.9167045711380.35948627052077162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025231-5444.72630.2937.508114.328659174410.0653543660.2653543660.891.155354366FF12.726238.726138447.3274695933951.1423498104920.39757044717692162122125DRYL
2025-05-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025231-5443.95230.84837.4114.74802927660.0685039740.2685039740.941.208503974FF11.952235.952138447.4877740684351.3483401997240.37059893763358162122125DRYL
2025-05-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025231-5443.86230.93837.4115.212638212430.0035433090.2435433091.081.323543309FF11.862232.862138447.6651718488251.5766854845230.36750078310272162122125DRYL
2025-05-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025231-5439.88430.9235.402115.793265022880.1988190050.5988190050.921.518819005FF7.884229.884138447.8865736853351.8622487269370.24149711728234161123126DRYL
2025-05-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025231-5439.88430.9235.402115.965678386910.1988190050.5988190051.011.608819005FF7.884228.884138447.9522546739351.947087098210.24149711728234161123126DRYL
2025-05-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025231-5441.7231.71236.716117.384028368570.023622060.603622060.961.56362206FF9.72226.72138448.4914858610252.6457372993720.29669121307055162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-11 00:00:03FORECAST2025231-5440.20829.91235.06118.542281801630.1409449580.6409449580.831.470944958FF8.208213.208138448.9303943460853.2172333158910.25081579432553162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025231-544131.60436.302119.37422030370.141732360.661732360.761.42173236FF9218138449.244853202353.6282540764760.27437117429225162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025231-5441.23432.10836.671118.533490580810.1586615030.6986615030.661.358661503FF9.234220.234138448.9270678622153.2128923699180.28153370882414162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025231-5443.91631.137.508122.033302697530.4240159771.8840159770.832.714015977FF11.916220.916138450.245497348854.9449450661650.369358656073731621251212.5DRYL
2025-05-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025231-5443.91631.137.508121.865127265440.4240159771.8840159770.812.694015977FF11.916221.916138450.1824109517554.8615368032970.369358656073731621251212.5DRYL
2025-05-10 04:00:05FORECAST2025231-5438.96629.80434.385122.041895323860.299212761.649212760.892.53921276FF6.966214.966138450.2487199131554.9492071453420.216143994362471611251210DRYL
2025-05-10 00:00:03FORECAST2025231-5441.68430.97436.329116.4857090983400.040.770.81FF9.684223.684138448.1501866021952.203092268910.29555572984062162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025231-5441.68432.57637.13118.1357796995400.040.760.8FF9.684225.684138448.7765015084753.0165619165360.29555572984062162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-09 16:00:03FORECAST2025231-5434.64627.42831.037118.6926402946900.110.760.87FF2.646211.646138448.987276550853.2914853125370.11904625885758161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025231-5426.88824.58425.736123.1702271045200.521.011.53FF-5.112181.888138450.6712771719655.5092835587570.029393722861543161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025231-5431.40627.93229.669122.5531135309100.51.051.55FF-0.594200.406138450.4403198281355.2028636547960.069974018232013161123126DRYL
2025-05-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025231-5430.45227.82429.138121.9959986390600.391.131.52FF-1.548204.452138450.2315060809854.9264422031170.058992977775301161122124DRYL