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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 18, 2025

[ Saturday, May 17, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, May 19, 2025 ]

DAY 230 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/19/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.91°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.70°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.121
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 241

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.06 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.69 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.71 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.40 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 117 in
SWE DAY: 137
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.63 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 52.20 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -55

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-19 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025230-5535.9099625.5000230.70499116.622142083330.0599999999999450.689999999999951.712.3999999999999FF3.90996240.90996137447.63213756295 52.2038187479320.1213430384766916 1123126DRYL
2025-05-19 00:00:01FORECAST2025230-5531.40622.40626.906117.406285016730.1153543930.7453543931.712.455354393FF-0.594236.406137447.9311316727952.5899301130430.057976174407181161123126DRYL
2025-05-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025230-5531.9122.53227.221116.524997494760.1488189780.7788189781.712.488818978FF-0.09236.91137447.5950548055352.1560126398820.063407931306917161123126DRYL
2025-05-18 08:00:01FORECAST2025230-5531.83822.51427.176116.46336202390.1287402270.7587402271.712.468740227FF-0.162236.838137447.571522108752.1256842109340.062608640808494161123126DRYL
2025-05-18 04:00:02FORECAST2025230-5532.01821.95626.987116.554050088280.1531496890.7831496891.712.493149689FF0.018000000000001237.018137447.6061459374352.1703091534130.064621680304507161123126DRYL
2025-05-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025230-553222.47827.239117.873318549440.1885827790.9085827791.712.618582779FF0233137448.1089290400752.8200865375890.064418149236086161123126DRYL
2025-05-17 20:00:02FORECAST2025230-5532.21623.32427.77117.806410455380.2181103540.9981103541.712.708110354FF0.216234.216137448.0834703997652.7871052321860.066893500772339161124128DRYL
2025-05-17 16:00:01FORECAST2025230-5532.75623.32428.04117.760334751130.2102363340.9902363341.712.700236334FF0.756234.756137448.0659360023852.7643946142190.073402426542681161124128DRYL
2025-05-17 12:00:01FORECAST2025230-5532.6324.06228.346117.784575666810.1937008920.9737008921.712.683700892FF0.63234.63137448.0751612902452.7763427394080.071842099546731161123126DRYL
2025-05-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025230-5533.09823.9928.544117.906541314440.1842520681.0242520681.712.734252068FF1.098235.098137448.1215687495752.8364642596610.077767762091797161124128DRYL
2025-05-17 04:00:03FORECAST2025230-5533.42223.84628.634118.553044027540.1944882941.1544882941.712.864488294FF1.422236.422137448.3673206096153.1553107007420.082081856088935161124128DRYL
2025-05-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025230-5532.82823.4528.139117.445560206610.2366143010.7866143011.712.496614301FF0.828236.828137447.9460916682652.6092796783390.074305565915998161123126DRYL
2025-05-16 20:00:02FORECAST2025230-5532.64824.06228.355117.93270794480.2464568260.8564568261.712.566456826FF0.648236.648137448.1315231787652.8493640439010.072063438347609161123126DRYL
2025-05-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025230-5533.42223.9928.706118.234137677730.259842660.929842661.712.63984266FF1.422237.422137448.2461467602552.9979966295630.082081856088935161123126DRYL
2025-05-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025230-5533.5323.88228.706116.536149277390.1877953770.8277953771.712.537795377FF1.53237.53137447.5993122121552.1615002644140.083559107613113161123126DRYL
2025-05-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025230-5533.51223.84628.679116.7847102340.2185040550.8685040551.712.578504055FF1.512234.512137447.6941738259552.2838343637140.083311525937636161123126DRYL
2025-05-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025230-5533.5324.13428.832117.315388902780.2468505270.8468505271.712.556850527FF1.53234.53137447.8965034436752.545152489690.083559107613113161123126DRYL
2025-05-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025230-5532.88224.58428.733115.878978378970.2051182210.7851182211.432.215118221FF0.882237.882137447.3482186814451.8382545604550.074988451635757161123126DRYL
2025-05-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025230-5532.91824.63828.778115.868796186040.2137796430.8137796431.492.303779643FF0.918237.918137447.3443249449851.8332484120310.075446352135129161123126DRYL
2025-05-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025230-5533.31425.37629.345115.782973295380.2181103540.8581103541.492.348110354FF1.314237.314137447.3115017145251.7910556577310.08062429996854161123126DRYL
2025-05-15 12:00:03FORECAST2025230-5533.04424.54828.796116.675243045290.3551183020.9551183021.492.445118302FF1.044238.044137447.6524037910452.2299530121280.077065735764627161123126DRYL
2025-05-15 08:00:03FORECAST2025230-5532.6324.38628.508117.372530824030.2732284940.8532284941.472.323228494FF0.63237.63137447.9182734432752.5733013563660.071842099546731161123126DRYL
2025-05-15 04:00:05FORECAST2025230-5533.96224.83629.399117.106760366810.3291340360.9291340361.492.419134036FF1.962241.962137447.8169930535152.4423972937040.089667547514789161123126DRYL
2025-05-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025230-5536.5926.63631.613117.136941856620.1248032170.6448032171.341.984803217FF4.59244.59137447.8284981235252.4572607464310.1340592514904161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025230-5538.51628.34633.431116.611965056730.0917323330.5617323331.351.911732333FF6.516247.516137447.6282531414652.1988102137360.17489280607738161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025230-5535.97825.64630.812117.221882151510.0992126520.6492126521.341.989212652FF3.978244.978137447.8608723098352.4990943941750.12257587690489161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025230-5536.26626.76231.514116.322477875610.0677165720.5077165721.331.837716572FF4.266246.266137447.5177180775952.0563698600250.12789115229482161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025230-5535.8726.29431.082115.492086549420.066929170.526929171.321.84692917FF3.87245.87137447.2001979375151.6480839651170.12062305523742161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025230-5534.80826.04230.425115.874130328760.0547244390.4447244391.331.774724439FF2.808240.808137447.3463647682351.8358709732520.10257731710972161122124DRYL
2025-05-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025230-5535.58227.12231.352116.726359997890.2212599620.7212599620.981.701259962FF3.582242.582137447.6719102307852.2551125545410.11552261248848161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025230-5536.30228.00432.153116.922190974070.2212599620.7712599620.991.761259962FF4.302246.302137447.7466167055652.3515154264410.12856662117734161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025230-5536.98628.5832.783116.497363814550.2212599620.78125996211.781259962FF4.986249.986137447.5845045991552.142414870040.14187077708754161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025230-5535.58227.44631.514116.697762958440.1153543930.6153543931.021.635354393FF3.582244.582137447.660997794852.2410370063990.11552261248848161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025230-5534.48426.45630.47117.916622280880.1153543930.6153543931.061.675354393FF2.484242.484137448.1254038752752.8414339832280.097482584356861161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025230-5533.5326.45629.993117.685150012380.1098425790.6098425791.011.619842579FF1.53243.53137448.0373195732452.7273391651230.083559107613113161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025230-5536.73428.02232.378116.630459786850.2492127330.7192127330.751.469212733FF4.734248.734137447.6353122335752.2079122826310.13686500120425161123126DRYL
2025-05-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025230-5538.01228.81433.413116.764127258610.2374017030.7174017030.81.517401703FF6.012250.012137447.686320746352.2737025275580.16351548090367161123126DRYL
2025-05-12 16:00:03FORECAST2025230-5537.88628.45433.17117.140042217120.2539371450.7339371450.811.543937145FF5.886247.886137447.8296799192952.4587876118260.1607477967495161123126DRYL
2025-05-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025230-5539.88429.3934.637115.273949160320.1019685590.6519685590.811.461968559FF7.884256.884137447.1166767175451.5409050606710.20822518053466161123126DRYL
2025-05-12 08:00:03FORECAST2025230-5540.33429.80435.069115.152003929440.1015748580.6515748580.771.421574858FF8.334258.334137447.0699657235551.4810024497330.2199582946002161123126DRYL
2025-05-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025230-5540.96429.98435.474114.736204572470.0614173560.7114173560.811.521417356FF8.964257.964137446.9105853957551.276824351570.23700409500704161123126DRYL
2025-05-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025230-5540.78430.4735.627115.131603174410.0149606380.3149606380.781.094960638FF8.784256.784137447.0621498227351.4709820276870.23206122631927161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025230-5541.30628.83235.069115.49291727660.0169291430.3169291430.821.136929143FF9.306255.306137447.2005159208551.6484921912990.24655265821696161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025230-5539.70428.63434.169115.936370212430.0149606380.4449606380.881.324960638FF7.704251.704137447.3701638064851.8664729330630.20363711187249161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025230-5539.99228.56234.277115.772894331620.0720472830.4620472830.861.322047283FF7.992252.992137447.3076465140951.7861008935990.21100699942994161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025230-5538.76830.27234.52115.945307695650.0720472830.4620472830.951.412047283FF6.768251.768137447.3735809767251.8708675012490.18076496586442161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025230-5538.94828.02233.485117.925589186540.0877953230.6377953230.91.537795323FF6.948247.948137448.128815093752.8458545513930.1850339609174161123126DRYL
2025-05-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025230-5538.19228.32833.26118.526719584720.1311024330.5311024330.81.331102433FF6.192236.192137448.3573219095953.1423225677330.16752253386399161123126DRYL
2025-05-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025230-5538.58831.11834.853119.484614236040.1311024330.5511024330.731.281102433FF6.588239.588137448.7207248151453.6152227042520.1765581104929161123126DRYL
2025-05-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025230-5538.94829.82234.385118.693804866140.1122047850.5622047850.641.202204785FF6.948241.948137448.420773850653.2247678293470.1850339609174161123126DRYL
2025-05-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025230-5538.89429.67834.286121.691794070441.0700793181.6500793180.642.290079318FF6.894239.894137449.5547191850854.7071203104660.183746749076671611251210DRYL
2025-05-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025230-5538.89429.67834.286121.523618638361.0700793181.6500793180.622.270079318FF6.894240.894137449.4913376483354.6238138976190.183746749076671611251210DRYL
2025-05-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025230-5538.1229.67833.899121.0712639021.110236821.590236820.652.24023682FF6.12239.12137449.3207209116254.3998275781250.165912202076111611251210DRYL
2025-05-10 00:00:03FORECAST2025230-5541.84632.97237.409116.597786698340.0232283590.1232283590.690.813228359FF9.846244.846137447.6228413030352.1918325715560.26203867521348162122125DRYL
2025-05-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025230-5542.9834.12438.552118.295581299540.0232283590.1232283590.680.803228359FF10.98246.98137448.2695009356953.0283011920430.29610440098348162122125DRYL
2025-05-09 16:00:03FORECAST2025230-5540.31632.97236.644118.728162694690.0248031630.2048031630.670.874803163FF8.316240.316137448.4338181667353.2417233211010.21948181792219161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025230-5533.18827.17630.182123.170227104520.2271654770.8771654770.651.527165477FF1.188218.188137450.110743686155.4402425220040.078948540443549161123126DRYL
2025-05-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025230-5537.1328.74232.936122.553113530910.2196851580.8696851580.681.549685158FF5.13232.13137449.8789070347455.1340607689890.14478605222033161123126DRYL
2025-05-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025230-5537.99428.0433.017121.995998639060.177165450.807165450.711.51716545FF5.994236.994137449.669298285854.8578551017020.16311821867031161123126DRYL
2025-05-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025230-5536.62627.69832.162123.109629672350.011811030.481811030.911.39181103FF4.626228.626137450.0879945858455.4101663334330.13475696689983161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 20:00:03FORECAST2025230-5536.62626.13231.379123.706367620410.0114173290.4714173290.851.321417329FF4.626227.626137450.3118656640155.7064451976660.13475696689983161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 16:00:03FORECAST2025230-5529.35424.94427.149125.982964613560.0114173290.6514173290.841.491417329FF-2.646209.354137451.1628395956656.8388320557350.039528316743949161123126DRYL
2025-05-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025230-5533.67429.13831.406123.9177086044100.321.161.48FF1.674220.674137450.3910706139655.811429446370.085559630271697161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025230-5533.67429.13831.406122.1607306108700.291.171.46FF1.674221.674137449.7313078847654.9395051497840.085559630271697161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 04:00:05FORECAST2025230-5542.20640.31641.261121.8509282486400.191.131.32FF10.206239.206137449.6146683515754.7859646928410.27263250666458162122125DRYL