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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 17, 2025

[ Friday, May 16, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, May 18, 2025 ]

DAY 229 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/18/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.12°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.54°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.83°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.142
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 253

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.19 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.99 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.35 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.34 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 116 in
SWE DAY: 136
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 446.82 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.83 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -56

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-18 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025229-5639.1200830.5400234.83005115.997143333330.190000000000050.990000000000051.352.3400000000001FF7.12008253.12008136446.82038523806 51.8298882707150.1416884825971116 1124128DRYL
2025-05-18 00:00:01FORECAST2025229-5635.43826.74431.091117.168184269550.2759844011.0759844011.352.425984401FF3.438249.438136447.2690954259152.4057077909380.078232869202336161124128DRYL
2025-05-17 12:00:01FORECAST2025229-5635.56426.72631.145117.086165287030.3409450661.1409450661.352.490945066FF3.564249.564136447.2377114893852.3653486100360.079970690325975161124128DRYL
2025-05-17 08:00:01FORECAST2025229-5636.37428.11232.243117.257799740240.4019687211.2019687211.352.551968721FF4.374250.374136447.3033786268552.449809994160.09184300437832161124128DRYL
2025-05-17 04:00:03FORECAST2025229-5636.57228.2232.396117.866342643280.5177168151.3177168151.352.667716815FF4.572250.572136447.5359758609852.7494286760260.094933679349153161124128DRYL
2025-05-17 00:00:01FORECAST2025229-5636.55427.98632.27116.506569210930.5055120840.9055120841.352.255512084FF4.554251.554136447.0157470353752.0802710703540.094649592412074161123126DRYL
2025-05-16 20:00:01FORECAST2025229-5637.16628.0432.603116.961214676270.5519688020.9719688021.352.321968802FF5.166252.166136447.189887524552.3038724358090.10466280258947161123126DRYL
2025-05-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025229-5636.66228.432.531117.234789149160.6070869421.0270869421.352.377086942FF4.662251.662136447.2945764637552.4384853592910.096363509360032161124128DRYL
2025-05-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025229-5636.57228.05832.315115.807481022370.5779530680.9979530681.352.347953068FF4.572251.572136446.7475862677651.7367126184930.094933679349153161124128DRYL
2025-05-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025229-5636.46428.14832.306115.953003196550.5783467691.0083467691.352.358346769FF4.464249.464136446.8034458543551.8082013853790.093238521670218161124128DRYL
2025-05-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025229-5636.39227.84232.117116.344224031310.5625987290.9625987291.352.312598729FF4.392249.392136446.9535160644552.0004600045840.092120867070903161123126DRYL
2025-05-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025229-5636.0527.84231.946115.052521167750.4940947550.6640947551.352.014094755FF4.05253.05136446.4574586116451.3660562074150.086946774684238161123126DRYL
2025-05-15 20:00:01FORECAST2025229-5636.01427.96831.991115.005705827550.4940947550.7440947551.352.094094755FF4.014253.014136446.4394493623151.3430839831740.086414978967828161123126DRYL
2025-05-15 16:00:01FORECAST2025229-5636.08628.61632.351114.923884819820.4933073530.7833073531.352.133307353FF4.086252.086136446.4079687477851.3029379830220.08748100309529161123126DRYL
2025-05-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025229-5636.91428.79632.855115.212521312370.4740160040.7440160041.352.094016004FF4.914252.914136446.5189924115651.4445789295960.10045083181983161123126DRYL
2025-05-15 08:00:03FORECAST2025229-5637.18428.27432.729116.218115130310.4417325220.7017325221.352.051732522FF5.184253.184136446.9051576540651.938475064570.10496846471878161123126DRYL
2025-05-15 04:00:05FORECAST2025229-5637.99428.72433.359115.785476960080.4358270070.7358270071.352.085827007FF5.994255.994136446.7391380751751.7259041787690.11939631621736161123126DRYL
2025-05-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025229-5636.8629.1232.99116.778166787470.3834647740.6434647741.221.863464774FF4.86255.86136447.1197998259452.2138305580550.099564532884418161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025229-5637.61630.66834.142116.5902430420.3535434980.5935434981.231.823543498FF5.616256.616136447.0478112891952.12141296960.11249851742974161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 16:00:01FORECAST2025229-5637.65228.52633.089116.90030546080.4145671530.6645671531.231.894567153FF5.652256.652136447.1665694486152.27390856040.11314295552484161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025229-5637.95829.26433.611116.173288225020.3637797240.5437797241.231.773779724FF5.958257.958136446.8879643512651.916444286870.118726845647161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025229-5636.66229.2132.936115.344266524090.3838584750.5638584751.221.783858475FF4.662257.662136446.569640992951.5092476922510.096363509360032161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025229-5636.62628.36432.495115.750674661810.3145670990.4745670991.251.724567099FF4.626253.626136446.7257751912351.7088098672030.095789696028615161122124DRYL
2025-05-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025229-5636.15829.62432.891116.366287430040.3944884020.5944884020.891.484488402FF4.158255.158136446.9619750242852.0113056559750.088556778095309161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 20:00:01FORECAST2025229-5636.2330.41633.323116.611650175070.4366144090.6466144090.891.536614409FF4.23258.23136447.0560135209152.1319394573630.08964234383434161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025229-5637.05830.27233.665116.259835234570.4421262230.6621262230.91.562126223FF5.058261.058136446.9211575885351.9589801440850.10284231771989161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025229-5635.88828.9432.414116.407997372650.4106301430.6106301430.911.520630143FF3.888256.888136446.977965042852.0318097803370.084572778049579161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025229-5635.16829.49832.333117.459067935030.4106301430.6106301430.951.560630143FF3.168256.168136447.3803471389252.5488785873860.074605289373191161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025229-5635.52828.59832.063117.21115797870.4118112460.6118112460.91.511811246FF3.528257.528136447.2855363770552.4268556658760.07947122801407161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025229-5639.30830.63234.97115.674320198610.3074804810.5974804810.621.217480481FF7.308260.308136446.6964535679751.6713086016060.14566597873094161123126DRYL
2025-05-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025229-5639.59630.68635.141116.029376963340.2862206270.6062206270.671.276220627FF7.596259.596136446.832754136551.8457260692720.15190574710764161123126DRYL
2025-05-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025229-5639.23630.6534.943116.273268914040.3129922950.6229922950.671.292992295FF7.236258.236136446.9263091321451.965582926480.14413327614265161123126DRYL
2025-05-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025229-5639.16430.59634.88115.30395029570.4728349010.6728349010.691.362834901FF7.164265.164136446.5541434833651.4894567645440.14261145451447161123126DRYL
2025-05-12 08:00:03FORECAST2025229-5639.9231.67635.798115.25072024210.4716537980.6816537980.641.321653798FF7.92265.92136446.5336794839251.4633281728790.15913416935591161123126DRYL
2025-05-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025229-5640.131.71235.906114.988930157870.5267719380.7667719380.691.456771938FF8.1265.1136446.432995460351.3348525351540.16324550262992161123126DRYL
2025-05-12 00:00:01FORECAST2025229-5639.84832.73836.293115.507509071970.1877953770.3877953770.691.077795377FF7.848263.848136446.6323750116951.5893931084990.15750874525716161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025229-5639.231.31635.258115.91452598910.1755906460.3855906460.731.115590646FF7.2262.2136446.7886781481351.7892978448360.14337100575154161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025229-5638.330.97434.637116.268721050940.2267717760.5267717760.781.306771776FF6.3260.3136446.9245651385651.9633475949070.12519413151167161123126DRYL
2025-05-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025229-5638.42631.76635.096116.045912832570.3299214380.4099214380.841.249921438FF6.426261.426136446.8390989949451.8538511321510.12763752588427161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025229-5638.46231.89235.177116.219614970.3251970260.4051970260.931.335197026FF6.462261.462136446.9057328818351.9392122034120.12834166900458161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025229-5635.79830.09232.945118.083036999850.4885829410.5585829410.891.448582941FF3.798256.798136447.6187139992852.8561771670020.083275005544173161123126DRYL
2025-05-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025229-5635.31229.1232.216118.371472990810.3708663420.4208663420.781.200866342FF3.312246.312136447.7287738683152.998314463160.076523744253966161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025229-5637.7631.78434.772119.448786940990.3885828870.4285828870.721.148582887FF5.76248.76136448.1391373119653.5296763326940.11509201150175161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025229-5637.88631.62234.754118.800391949690.4299214920.4599214920.631.089921492FF5.886250.886136447.8922894471353.2097795375630.11739584579952161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025229-5636.71631.60434.16119.525520697830.3881891860.5881891860.631.218189186FF4.716248.716136448.1683234202353.5675522170780.097228943881661161123126DRYL
2025-05-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025229-5636.62631.60434.115119.357345265750.3937010.5937010.611.203701FF4.626249.626136448.1043495363953.4845455626990.095789696028615161123126DRYL
2025-05-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025229-5637.38231.67634.529119.23054212120.2448820220.4948820220.641.134882022FF5.382249.382136448.0560955848153.4219711772870.1083733308014161123126DRYL
2025-05-10 00:00:03FORECAST2025229-5643.84433.51238.678117.268481098340.0228346580.1028346580.690.792834658FF11.844250.844136447.3074643555852.4550669289290.26384098055383162122125DRYL
2025-05-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025229-5644.67234.95239.812119.137098099540.0228346580.1028346580.680.782834658FF12.672251.672136448.0205262405253.3758653853260.28970712165448162122125DRYL
2025-05-09 16:00:03FORECAST2025229-5642.49434.37638.435119.308592537110.0870079210.1770079210.670.847007921FF10.494248.494136448.0857989032253.460486003010.22434355619859161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025229-5634.55629.78632.171121.990095030630.2901576370.6901576370.611.300157637FF2.556232.556136449.1027188135954.7860833465820.066857945668844161123126DRYL
2025-05-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025229-5636.75231.65834.205121.54552653040.2779529060.6879529060.641.327952906FF4.752242.752136448.9346014283454.5659925083220.097809049715701161123126DRYL
2025-05-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025229-5638.15631.06434.61121.366208304080.2141733440.6841733440.661.344173344FF6.156247.156136448.8667369583854.4772538984650.12244178084736161123126DRYL
2025-05-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025229-5636.57230.61433.593123.037140458760.1633859150.4833859150.91.383385915FF4.572239.572136449.4979187474455.304938564850.094933679349153161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 20:00:03FORECAST2025229-5636.28428.68832.486123.635099507990.1594489050.4694489050.841.309448905FF4.284239.284136449.7231431201755.6015655507070.090462966999485161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 16:00:03FORECAST2025229-5633.18826.629.894125.873109669570.2405513110.6505513110.831.480551311FF1.188228.188136450.5630716831656.7137749350320.051792798212971161123126DRYL
2025-05-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025229-5637.99429.19233.593123.931583004410.0972441470.47724414711.477244147FF5.994234.994136449.8346883755655.7487250206790.11939631621736161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025229-5638.13829.2133.674122.174605010870.1039370640.4539370641.011.463937064FF6.138236.138136449.1724371172554.877465086570.12210073691415161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 04:00:05FORECAST2025229-5645.42830.21837.823122.002857848640.1015748580.32157485811.321574858FF13.428245.428136449.1075423798654.792403651720.31431425855149162122125DRYL
2025-05-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025229-5631.4626.22228.841122.916047468430.0125984320.5125984320.711.222598432FF-0.54222.46136449.4522667795255.2448961582640.036754504962789161123126DRYL
2025-05-07 20:00:03FORECAST2025229-5631.4625.2528.355125.686878282950.0125984320.5125984320.731.242598432FF-0.54214.46136450.4933607452956.6211041992680.036754504962789161123126DRYL
2025-05-07 16:00:03FORECAST2025229-5631.76625.98828.877125.078478880510.0122047310.4822047310.611.092204731FF-0.234217.766136450.2653920841956.3185103344250.039121784632313161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 12:00:03FORECAST2025229-5636.84232.97234.907123.64208037620.0834646120.2234646121.161.383464612FF4.842235.842136449.7257704807855.6050298610320.09927036944324161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025229-5636.84232.97234.907125.264804279290.0834646120.2234646121.181.403464612FF4.842237.842136450.3352460691956.4111564589240.09927036944324161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025229-5632.4531.47831.964127.552644147030.0448819140.4148819141.251.664881914FF0.45224.45136451.1902748274657.5505125676680.044861590419832161122124DRYL