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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 16, 2025

[ Thursday, May 15, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, May 17, 2025 ]

DAY 228 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/17/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.12°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.46°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.131
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 256

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.44 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.97 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.52 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.49 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 117 in
SWE DAY: 135
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 446.77 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 52.43 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -57

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-17 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025228-5738.1229.4600233.79001117.357048750.439999999999940.969999999999941.522.4899999999999FF6.12256.12135446.76812679157 52.4313888358240.13067407385116 1123126DRYL
2025-05-17 00:00:01FORECAST2025228-5738.55229.15633.854115.792477783940.0440945120.5740945121.522.094094512FF6.552256.552135446.1663322008251.6627051093040.13931188157899161123126DRYL
2025-05-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025228-5738.73229.1233.926115.740135060450.0566929440.5866929441.522.106692944FF6.732256.732135446.1461577900751.6370165593220.14302280417061161123126DRYL
2025-05-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025228-5737.20228.99433.098115.864782643310.0728346850.6028346851.522.122834685FF5.202255.202135446.1941961891251.698193558160.11356379195106161123126DRYL
2025-05-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025228-5736.75229.1232.936116.198854252950.0417323060.5717323061.522.091732306FF4.752254.752135446.3228703179651.8622061578350.10578460548784161123126DRYL
2025-05-16 00:00:01FORECAST2025228-5737.56228.38232.972114.938858761680.0897638280.3397638281.521.859763828FF5.562258.562135445.8369875158651.2439945388160.12007354893883161122124DRYL
2025-05-15 20:00:01FORECAST2025228-5737.56228.61633.089114.868727337950.1149606920.4249606921.521.944960692FF5.562258.562135445.8098975383851.2096155648970.12007354893883161122124DRYL
2025-05-15 16:00:01FORECAST2025228-5737.23828.83233.035114.919312493830.1503937820.4603937821.521.980393782FF5.238258.238135445.8294377769451.2344124788380.11420324697705161122124DRYL
2025-05-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025228-5736.93228.54432.738115.122768991610.1322835360.4422835361.521.962283536FF4.932257.932135445.9080044241551.3341641848330.10884890291551161122124DRYL
2025-05-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025228-5736.69827.75232.225115.386363824970.1448819680.4348819681.521.954881968FF4.698257.698135446.0097336989651.4634414020650.10487755429043161122124DRYL
2025-05-15 04:00:04FORECAST2025228-5738.10228.32833.215115.267141902960.1629922140.4729922141.521.992992214FF6.102260.102135445.9637307642351.4049646375760.13032235885198161122124DRYL
2025-05-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025228-5738.37228.70633.539116.123146923090.1409449580.3009449581.521.820944958FF6.372261.372135446.2937197458951.8250311889060.13566683394241161122124DRYL
2025-05-14 20:00:01FORECAST2025228-5738.6629.04833.854116.152704003050.1244095160.2944095161.521.814409516FF6.66260.66135446.3051011575951.839544309810.14153051948809161122124DRYL
2025-05-14 16:00:01FORECAST2025228-5737.7628.32833.044116.21507107750.1413386590.3013386591.521.821338659FF5.76260.76135446.3291137626651.8701696798870.12376363349343161122124DRYL
2025-05-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025228-5737.99428.90433.449115.850825526380.0818898080.2318898081.521.751889808FF5.994261.994135446.1888179596551.6913429012650.12822578312108161122124DRYL
2025-05-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025228-5738.15628.90433.53115.544215324090.0822835090.2222835091.521.742283509FF6.156263.156135446.0706208018651.5408798596790.13137946530275161122124DRYL
2025-05-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025228-5737.36428.4932.927115.929565861810.0834646120.2334646121.521.753464612FF5.364259.364135446.219157230651.7299931769640.11646145750091161122124DRYL
2025-05-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025228-5738.28229.08433.683116.493180642870.1118110840.2618110841.171.431811084FF6.282261.282135446.436145370552.0067665281510.13386895586567161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 20:00:01FORECAST2025228-5737.88629.3933.638116.753029579330.1086614760.2586614761.181.438661476FF5.886263.886135446.5360810000152.1344402732310.12615267635755161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025228-5739.32630.86635.096116.499874186920.11811030.27811031.181.4581103FF7.326266.326135446.4387204767752.0100547677130.15573792928827161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025228-5737.83230.12833.98116.444902066130.0933071370.2733071371.181.453307137FF5.832262.832135446.4175705849451.983050287360.1251249051915161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025228-5738.26430.70434.484116.702511785730.0862205190.2762205191.211.486220519FF6.264263.264135446.5166574629752.1096154800990.13351134863618161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025228-5738.71430.1134.412116.350053856980.090551230.260551231.181.44055123FF6.714263.714135446.3810718822351.9364617542350.14264874286589161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025228-5739.16430.63234.898115.816255621160.1586615030.3486615030.91.248661503FF7.164263.164135446.1754959861751.6743752950320.15219864433907161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025228-5739.50629.7534.628116.233208553580.1917323870.3817323870.951.331732387FF7.506261.506135446.3360963496651.8790765720020.15973345337366161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025228-5739.4729.64234.556116.418396084910.1748032440.3748032440.951.324803244FF7.47261.47135446.4073716579351.9700302088970.15892904381588161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025228-5740.5529.96635.258115.32920848350.0842520140.2542520140.981.234252014FF8.55267.55135445.987681494651.4354063001650.18421295788366161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 08:00:03FORECAST2025228-5740.92829.9335.429115.514099173580.0834646120.2734646120.921.193464612FF8.928267.928135446.0590061658951.5261042755130.19362213519174161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025228-5740.56829.8435.204115.277986852260.1200788050.2900788050.981.270078805FF8.568266.568135445.9679159690851.4102835536120.18465447149673161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 00:00:01FORECAST2025228-5739.72230.39835.06116.024797871970.1145669910.2445669910.991.234566991FF7.722265.722135446.2558427672651.7767439562580.16461560304667161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025228-5740.24429.89435.069116.34295958910.1200788050.2500788051.031.280078805FF8.244265.244135446.3783415713351.9329773548810.17680778453187161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025228-5739.4729.46234.466116.625472129470.2015749120.3615749121.061.421574912FF7.47264.47135446.4870317619752.0717608789240.15892904381588161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025228-5739.77629.82234.799116.471296032570.0570866450.1370866451.121.257086645FF7.776264.776135446.4277257288151.9960158005070.16585105360236161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025228-5738.60629.85834.232116.595207770.0562992430.1362992431.211.346299243FF6.606264.606135446.4753919766852.0568910917130.14041823380146161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025228-5737.11228.79632.954116.726852233390.0566929440.1266929441.171.296692944FF5.112263.112135446.5260164090152.1215763357370.11197629904765161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025228-5736.30228.18432.243117.131191921930.027559070.097559071.071.16755907FF4.302253.302135446.6814011373452.3203249245750.098396923024498161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025228-5738.01228.6733.341118.758937497960.027559070.087559071.011.09755907FF6.012253.012135447.3053197904253.1215045154950.12857358105289161121122DRYL
2025-05-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025228-5738.17428.43633.305118.285149464020.0192913490.0692913490.930.999291349FF6.174255.174135447.1239818073452.888127017030.13173314224517161121122DRYL
2025-05-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025228-5738.15629.26433.71118.118801841790.1862205730.2562205730.911.166220573FF6.156254.156135447.0602620171752.8062225005440.13137946530275161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025228-5738.22828.4933.359117.96086249540.1862205730.2562205730.891.146220573FF6.228255.228135446.9997381126752.7284746429880.13279810081143161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025228-5738.06629.10233.584118.531669626370.2358268990.2958268990.931.225826899FF6.066254.066135447.2183623498853.0095391769010.12962088906015161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025228-5740.24429.24634.745118.09850611830.0759842930.1159842930.991.105984293FF8.244249.244135447.0524858566452.7962307361410.17680778453187161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025228-5742.69230.41636.554120.159769299540.0759842930.1159842930.981.095984293FF10.692248.692135447.8402004988253.8123751749990.24126104127192161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 16:00:03FORECAST2025228-5740.69430.48835.591120.029090373420.0870079210.1270079210.971.097007921FF8.694247.694135447.790383711853.7478724348910.18776341733972161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025228-5736.69831.0133.854120.505688516370.3618112190.4418112190.911.351811219FF4.698239.698135447.971990356353.9831731339360.10487755429043161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025228-5735.88829.67832.783120.428004400660.366141930.446141930.941.38614193FF3.888247.888135447.9424039943353.9448097994710.091939475320783161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025228-5737.88631.02834.457120.762264192240.4192915650.5092915650.961.469291565FF5.886250.886135448.0696669410554.1099074956640.12615267635755161123126DRYL
2025-05-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025228-5738.8431.13634.988122.43762406750.3059056770.3859056771.171.555905677FF6.84244.84135448.7059023677354.9384845909690.14528104349373161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 20:00:03FORECAST2025228-5738.0330.2934.16122.940023466970.3027560690.3827560691.111.492756069FF6.03245.03135448.8961667079255.1873052693040.12892203117727161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 16:00:03FORECAST2025228-5734.9729.332.135124.088982297460.3980317110.4680317111.111.578031711FF2.97236.97135449.3303789528155.7569494395880.078745757575217161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025228-5738.60630.48834.547123.596009436960.224409570.494409571.231.72440957FF6.606238.606135449.1442308250255.5124345916060.14041823380146161123126DRYL
2025-05-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025228-5738.9330.52434.727121.946836177720.1937008920.4637008921.241.703700892FF6.93239.93135448.5198008475254.6955706764180.14718108837294161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025228-5741.41429.9335.672122.171469452160.0870079210.3570079211.21.557007921FF9.414242.414135448.6050081756254.8067330524150.20614054372351161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025228-5738.4829.80434.142122.802389701430.4275592860.6375592860.911.547559286FF6.48233.48135448.8440673867755.1191240784050.13784596730913161123126DRYL
2025-05-07 20:00:03FORECAST2025228-5737.45428.7633.107125.570104131190.4275592860.6375592860.931.567559286FF5.454225.454135449.8882551781556.4925150501220.11809367795065161123126DRYL
2025-05-07 16:00:03FORECAST2025228-5738.55229.73234.142124.971049888460.4023624220.5323624220.891.422362422FF6.552227.552135449.6628694065756.1948408855970.13931188157899161123126DRYL
2025-05-07 12:00:03FORECAST2025228-5745.87833.49439.686123.618287661130.0976378480.2376378481.41.637637848FF13.878240.878135449.1526481833755.5234812668910.34125151435544162122125DRYL
2025-05-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025228-5745.87833.49439.686125.241011564230.0976378480.2376378481.421.657637848FF13.878242.878135449.7644811590956.3289585860240.34125151435544162122125DRYL
2025-05-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025228-5743.41233.00838.21127.173783408060.342519870.532519871.431.96251987FF11.412234.412135450.4899318821957.2905090246980.26239264498349162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-07 00:00:02FORECAST2025228-5732.43229.73231.082126.57022964870.070866180.250866181.351.60086618FF0.432216.432135450.2637750262756.9899894075670.049698523364013161122124DRYL
2025-05-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025228-5732.25229.69630.974130.209425042440.0673228710.2473228711.361.607322871FF0.252213.252135451.6221709072158.8054632102470.04801561009602161122124DRYL
2025-05-06 16:00:03FORECAST2025228-5732.55830.00231.28129.884919927590.0570866450.2370866451.351.587086645FF0.558210.558135451.5015527292258.6432430234190.050904227069472161122124DRYL
2025-05-06 12:00:03FORECAST2025228-5739.07435.31237.193125.995531200350.1200788050.3900788051.221.610078805FF7.074237.074135450.0481080304356.7040504370090.15025557008372161122124DRYL
2025-05-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025228-5737.9435.38436.662125.882267855160.1200788050.4200788051.321.740078805FF5.94235.94135450.0055665636856.6477212664810.12718629978655161122124DRYL
2025-05-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025228-5737.61636.3236.968122.794024256980.0177165450.1877165451.071.257716545FF5.616246.616135448.8409001785455.1149803840470.12107218185335161122124DRYL