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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 15, 2025

[ Wednesday, May 14, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, May 16, 2025 ]

DAY 227 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/16/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.04°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.91°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.97°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.058
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 256

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.36 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.92 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.16 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.08 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 116 in
SWE DAY: 134
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.82 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.89 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -58

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-16 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025227-5833.0400426.9099629.975116.382641250.35999999999990.91999999999991.162.0799999999999FF1.04004256.04004134445.81679335058 51.8853359237460.05848130258723916 1123126DRYL
2025-05-16 00:00:01FORECAST2025227-5835.5127.39231.451115.109798191410.0783464990.6383464991.161.798346499FF3.51258.51134445.3243094170751.2611913867260.089075715679173161123126DRYL
2025-05-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025227-5836.37427.19431.784115.142778356670.1433071640.7033071641.161.863307164FF4.374259.374134445.3370900893351.2773498581590.10219329874506161123126DRYL
2025-05-15 08:00:01FORECAST2025227-5835.58227.35631.469115.278928712080.1248032170.6848032171.161.844803217FF3.582258.582134445.3898405634651.3440636793990.090118668119447161123126DRYL
2025-05-15 04:00:04FORECAST2025227-5836.62627.48232.054115.257651182050.1401575560.7001575561.161.860157556FF4.626259.626134445.3815979404151.3336368583180.10627081288033161123126DRYL
2025-05-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025227-5836.44627.1431.793116.132320179160.1228347120.5528347121.161.712834712FF4.446261.446134445.7200657402751.7625053848240.10334655032683161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 20:00:01FORECAST2025227-5836.37427.37431.874116.211813351220.1173228980.5573228981.161.717322898FF4.374260.374134445.7507896932651.8015075729910.10219329874506161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 16:00:01FORECAST2025227-5837.25626.81632.036116.173424515530.114173290.554173291.161.71417329FF5.256261.256134445.7359532591151.7826721198050.11697376601939161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 12:00:01FORECAST2025227-5837.77827.21232.495115.970134085840.1043307650.5443307651.161.704330765FF5.778261.778134445.6573618943451.6829440152290.12640183123046161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025227-5837.70627.24832.477115.754528178230.1003937550.5303937551.161.690393755FF5.706262.706134445.5739650538451.5772040933120.125070918068161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025227-5835.90626.1531.028116.070108659830.0822835090.5422835091.161.702283509FF3.906259.906134445.6960167841451.7319850973880.094923991092659161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025227-5836.12227.44631.784116.581741418260.0925197350.1925197351.161.352519735FF4.122261.122134445.893684578251.9830622355290.098230435561004161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 20:00:01FORECAST2025227-5836.57227.69832.135116.868948772590.0980315490.1980315491.161.358031549FF4.572263.572134446.0045337631852.124081008710.10538734745759161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025227-5837.11228.61632.864116.705331622440.1000000540.2100000541.161.370000054FF5.112265.112134445.941394777852.0437383617150.11446267309576161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025227-5836.44627.42831.937116.544893455990.110236280.230236281.161.39023628FF4.446263.446134445.8794570600551.9649738172790.10334655032683161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025227-5835.88827.44631.667116.82793869040.1074803730.2674803731.161.427480373FF3.888262.888134445.9887106553752.1039417450570.094652188228713161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025227-5835.02427.69831.361116.411986151530.1106299810.2206299811.161.380629981FF3.024263.024134445.8281286096151.8997379336620.082268909069117161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025227-5835.04227.9531.496115.724369382710.1303150310.2503150310.871.120315031FF3.042262.042134445.5622959237651.5624157164870.082513844130644161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 20:00:01FORECAST2025227-5834.71827.57231.145116.084716748910.1251969180.2551969180.911.165196918FF2.718259.718134445.7016641391151.7391514361050.078188088468634161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025227-5834.35827.01430.686116.24906144470.1366142470.2666142470.911.176614247FF2.358260.358134445.7651838730751.8197842499690.073585205593806161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025227-5836.1426.97831.559115.614089880230.1248032170.2748032170.911.184803217FF4.14265.14134445.5196186422951.5083452331150.098509721557099161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025227-5835.85226.76231.307115.831144812250.1318898350.2918898350.851.141889835FF3.852264.852134445.6036057681151.6147757885890.094110298540913161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025227-5835.43827.01431.226115.643037891980.1248032170.2748032170.911.184803217FF3.438264.438134445.5308224474251.522537782330.088041743384073161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 00:00:01FORECAST2025227-5837.97627.57232.774116.304271462440.0862205190.2562205190.891.146220519FF5.976263.976134445.7865167666251.846876060320.13011245452328161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 20:00:01FORECAST2025227-5838.2127.3232.765116.672076794260.0885827250.3085827250.881.188582725FF6.21263.21134445.9285587081352.0274110463470.13459378904237161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025227-5837.83226.29432.063116.756543385010.0956693430.3256693430.921.245669343FF5.832262.832134445.9611599450152.0688835191480.12740645052067161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025227-5839.21825.91632.567116.870581324860.019685050.259685050.971.22968505FF7.218263.218134446.0051636241852.1248827466490.15509689809301161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025227-5839.34426.31232.828116.909613707410.0185039470.2985039471.021.318503947FF7.344264.344134446.020222073852.1440518683410.15779727296359161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 04:00:03FORECAST2025227-5838.89426.0632.477116.841631096860.0066929170.2866929170.981.266692917FF6.894263.894134445.9939938425452.1106656999660.14829359428304161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025227-5837.68826.65432.171117.22269026150.0153543390.2353543390.931.165354339FF5.688254.688134446.140951058452.2978425188890.12473972001499161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025227-5837.38226.90632.144118.946933301870.0137795350.1637795350.941.103779535FF5.382253.382134446.8041382478153.1459820311640.11920268789518161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025227-5837.29227.12232.207118.538670234860.0137795350.1237795350.891.013779535FF5.292255.292134446.6473723554452.9449855829080.11760757473197161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025227-5836.8627.30232.081117.833427979880.0129921330.1129921330.91.012992133FF4.86253.86134446.3761883897252.5980364465550.1101607728129161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025227-5837.8527.5932.72117.713663355280.0129921330.1029921330.890.992992133FF5.85254.85134446.3300875093452.5391496664090.12774255060237161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025227-5837.92227.28432.603118.130785945580.0125984320.1025984320.921.022598432FF5.922253.922134446.4905894847552.7442842531380.12909309254681161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025227-5838.89428.38233.638118.51524934940.0003937010.1103937010.951.060393701FF6.894246.894134446.6383742128152.9334582888420.14829359428304161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025227-5840.69428.434.547120.781549676910.0003937010.1103937010.941.050393701FF8.694243.694134447.5065957499354.0505401253140.18864714200609161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 16:00:03FORECAST2025227-5840.20829.28234.745120.567913538410.0003937010.1103937010.931.040393701FF8.208245.208134447.4249647599953.9450944661110.17713823159681161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025227-5837.56227.39232.477119.672977091290.0437008110.1337008110.891.023700811FF5.562240.562134447.0825250937653.5036967834630.12243844151493161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025227-5839.99228.47234.232119.481662118080.0437008110.1337008110.921.053700811FF7.992249.992134447.0092190354553.4094044724580.17216831787361161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025227-5840.89229.08434.988119.923834239660.0452756150.1352756150.941.075275615FF8.892250.892134447.1785919345753.6273713346850.19346491013792161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025227-5842.83628.88635.861121.914377876630.0055118140.2355118141.041.275511814FF10.836243.836134447.9387132868754.6101695572280.24462513635984161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025227-5842.1728.45435.312122.180451400690.0051181130.2251181130.991.215118113FF10.17245.17134448.0400268969954.7417327318510.22632506039791161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 16:00:03FORECAST2025227-5840.13628.36434.25122.370042154310.0133858340.2333858340.981.213385834FF8.136240.136134448.1121761691754.835505887680.1754716413272161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025227-5837.61629.1233.368123.19160076720.1637796160.4437796161.091.533779616FF5.616237.616134448.4244213366955.242122287570.12342104056506161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025227-5835.74429.67832.711122.314753777720.1633859150.4333859151.111.543385915FF3.744238.744134448.0911396170554.8081574122380.092498321441485161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025227-5836.28428.54432.414122.685019052160.1330709380.4330709381.071.503070938FF4.284239.284134448.2319646932854.9913471281840.10076489306366161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025227-5837.23828.86833.053123.109004101430.0740157880.3040157880.851.154015788FF5.238233.238134448.3930587385355.2012229072950.11665776817412161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 20:00:03FORECAST2025227-5836.2328.0432.135125.812168131190.0740157880.3040157880.871.174015788FF4.23226.23134449.416062863756.5420092618670.099914845998334161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 16:00:03FORECAST2025227-5837.1327.46432.297125.297147488460.0724409840.2224409840.831.052440984FF5.13227.13134449.2216961372156.2861971159210.11477445089736161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025227-5841.95428.1335.042124.585362861130.0405512030.2305512031.341.570551203FF9.954232.954134448.9526525991455.9329291315310.22056001061524161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025227-5841.95428.1335.042126.208086764230.0405512030.2305512031.361.590551203FF9.954234.954134449.5653082039256.7387774239860.22056001061524161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025227-5841.19829.17435.186127.008735773550.0283464720.3383464721.311.648346472FF9.198229.198134449.8666622969657.1369960450030.20105626946695161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 00:00:02FORECAST2025227-5839.52428.92234.223125.978894187880.0188976480.3988976481.161.558897648FF7.524221.524134449.4789301500656.6248585810560.16170805782801161122124DRYL
2025-05-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025227-5839.50628.0433.773129.619362124650.0181102460.4081102461.161.568110246FF7.506218.506134450.8450226825858.438244257190.16131416793521161122124DRYL
2025-05-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025227-5839.48827.33833.413129.395552356010.0149606380.4149606381.151.564960638FF7.488216.488134450.7614015717558.3265205371480.16092090275462161122124DRYL
2025-05-06 12:00:03FORECAST2025227-5848.81227.9538.381126.195873600350.0917323330.5117323331.011.521732333FF16.812235.812134449.5607065773656.7327061029230.43735341231587162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025227-5840.3728.56234.466126.071687855160.0964567450.6064567451.041.646456745FF8.37236.37134449.5139082676556.6709771296710.18092438733953161123126DRYL
2025-05-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025227-5839.6528.43634.043122.875499456980.0582677480.1882677481.081.268267748FF7.65246.65134448.3043596018155.0856220948120.16448277645213161122124DRYL
2025-05-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025227-5835.31230.32632.819124.048242570980.1007874560.5007874561.041.540787456FF3.312229.312134448.7493072082655.6665629141310.086253795754531161123126DRYL
2025-05-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025227-5835.31232.7234.016124.338178947420.1007874560.5007874560.981.480787456FF3.312241.312134448.8591070698755.8103239770320.086253795754531161123126DRYL
2025-05-05 16:00:03FORECAST2025227-5832.4529.31830.884125.185202596510.1700788320.4900788320.961.450078832FF0.45233.45134449.1794149336556.2306160606490.052559709246404161123126DRYL
2025-05-05 12:00:03FORECAST2025227-5835.3332.37833.854124.3977424276600.331.191.52FF3.33234.33134448.8816539457255.8398643680420.086507546709171161122124DRYL
2025-05-05 08:00:03FORECAST2025227-5835.3332.37833.854125.8357835656100.331.161.49FF3.33226.33134449.4249691387956.5537431455320.086507546709171161122124DRYL
2025-05-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025227-5833.20630.48831.847125.7805927636800.281.151.43FF1.206227.206134449.4041537615456.5263208505870.060237651217968161122124DRYL