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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 14, 2025

[ Tuesday, May 13, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, May 15, 2025 ]

DAY 226 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/15/2025 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.61°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.32°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.96°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.086
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 259

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.17 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.90 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.82 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.72 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 115 in
SWE DAY: 133
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.70 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.14 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -59

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-15 04:00:04OBSERVATION2025226-5934.6129.3199831.96499114.994848750.169999999999960.899999999999960.821.72FF2.61258.61133444.69869490177 51.1380591595520.08584983313877916 1123126DRYL
2025-05-15 00:00:01FORECAST2025226-5936.530.233.35115.930684611840.035433090.765433090.821.58543309FF4.5260.5133445.0624254720251.5963916799790.11577845121496161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 12:00:01FORECAST2025226-5936.28430.18233.233115.884706599950.0515748310.7815748310.821.601574831FF4.284260.284133445.0445754234851.573860046850.11202545599095161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.9530.18233.566115.841527568450.0401575020.7701575020.821.590157502FF4.95260.95133445.0278101251851.5527013353410.12388099712718161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 04:00:02FORECAST2025226-5935.52829.22832.378116.145752964330.0744094890.8044094890.821.624409489FF3.528259.528133445.1458938060651.7018050150850.099574567251842161123126DRYL
2025-05-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.30230.18233.242116.615381817860.0598425520.4398425520.821.259842552FF4.302261.302133445.3279990205551.9320946399640.11233485378322161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 20:00:01FORECAST2025226-5935.5130.232.855116.911957301420.0547244390.4447244390.821.264724439FF3.51262.51133445.4428884939152.077599959820.099290929727731161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 16:00:01FORECAST2025226-5936.64430.68633.665116.822527827580.0618110570.4518110570.821.271811057FF4.644263.644133445.4082537958852.0337181237020.11832938499791161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.21229.80433.008116.601011680550.0744094890.4644094890.821.284409489FF4.212263.212133445.3224300181851.9250458641620.11079393893185161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.37429.94833.161116.773001404380.0783464990.4983464990.821.318346499FF4.374263.374133445.3890695675252.0094184461050.11357853049062161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025226-5937.29230.233.746116.227160721020.0622047580.4522047580.821.272204758FF5.292264.292133445.1774763782451.7417140963910.13029789501817161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 00:00:01FORECAST2025226-5936.89630.36233.629115.491257534290.0641732630.1741732630.820.994173263FF4.896262.896133444.8917413751251.3811066780320.12288831818694161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 20:00:01FORECAST2025226-5935.22229.35432.288115.785821269180.059055150.219055150.821.03905515FF3.222261.222133445.0061780971651.5254058008390.094832533748537161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025226-5935.22228.83232.027115.84786205160.0602362530.2202362530.821.040236253FF3.222262.222133445.0302697558251.5558052994570.094832533748537161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.91429.40833.161115.50017971820.0476378210.2376378210.821.057637821FF4.914264.914133444.895208862151.3854765793380.12321859143275161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.75229.3933.071115.550531568320.0586614490.1886614490.821.008661449FF4.752264.752133444.9147759595751.4101388647290.12026840327919161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 04:00:03FORECAST2025226-5936.91429.46233.188115.56791365440.0480315220.2380315220.821.058031522FF4.914264.914133444.921530184451.4186529833350.12321859143275161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 00:00:01FORECAST2025226-5937.27429.91233.593116.483127808210.0409449040.2509449040.811.060944904FF5.274262.274133445.2767376334551.867227139780.12995455176861161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 20:00:01FORECAST2025226-5936.84229.53433.188116.829799455310.0444882130.3244882130.781.104488213FF4.842260.842133445.4110702824252.0372860162710.12190121331548161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 16:00:01FORECAST2025226-5937.0429.10233.071116.859841815220.0566929440.3666929440.781.146692944FF5.04261.04133445.4227059018452.0520269525980.12554787013361161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.55429.55233.053117.105681927330.0637795620.4337795620.781.213779562FF4.554259.554133445.5178881703252.1726761050090.11673045029778161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.84229.78633.314117.168325517320.0645669640.5045669640.81.304566964FF4.842260.842133445.5421324782952.2034256098980.12190121331548161123126DRYL
2025-05-11 04:00:03FORECAST2025226-5936.37428.05832.216117.051397455230.0594488510.4694488510.791.259448851FF4.374261.374133445.4968758861952.1460318844190.11357853049062161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.08628.97632.531117.363987663560.0543307380.3643307380.791.154330738FF4.086253.086133445.6178327609852.2994858268210.10866210925685161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.37429.64233.008119.078020166040.0492126250.2792126250.811.089212625FF4.374252.374133446.2793737833553.142064271060.11357853049062161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 16:00:01FORECAST2025226-5935.88829.87632.882118.681192072360.0421260070.2021260070.81.002126007FF3.888253.888133446.1264717348752.9468214805310.10537177683237161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.35629.73233.044117.946355892860.0566929440.2266929440.770.996692944FF4.356253.356133445.8429243525552.5855482279980.11326669773084161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025226-5935.79828.74232.27117.894060016850.0574803460.1974803460.780.977480346FF3.798252.798133445.8227250377752.5598511024760.10390015786657161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025226-5935.61829.73232.675118.314203748790.0480315220.2080315220.81.008031522FF3.618251.618133445.9849300297952.7663518804340.10100161000585161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.39230.77633.584118.846152358120.0429134090.2529134090.811.062913409FF4.392244.392133446.190051389753.027970828140.11389097292642161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.4130.84833.629121.212223434910.0429134090.2429134090.811.052913409FF4.41239.41133447.0990667087954.1938719714440.11420402540698161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.53234.25121.011274045690.0397638010.2597638010.781.039763801FF4.5240.5133447.0220765393154.094711008570.11577845121496161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025226-5935.40229.80432.603119.757805906420.0389763990.1589763990.820.978976399FF3.402239.402133446.5409445277653.4767637640250.097601461593443161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.89630.57833.737119.667121955030.0397638010.1897638010.821.009763801FF4.896245.896133446.5060768856953.432097156340.12288831818694161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025226-5937.81430.3834.097120.239412597460.0350393890.1950393890.831.025039389FF5.814245.814133446.7259859818653.7140701464810.14052767602101161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025226-5937.1331.17234.151122.455675774450.0657480670.4457480670.821.265748067FF5.13237.13133447.5746003423654.8080501444040.12723028354774161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.35630.05633.206122.681606255940.0673228710.4173228710.791.207322871FF4.356239.356133447.6608418429854.9197511351850.11326669773084161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 16:00:03FORECAST2025226-5936.30229.98433.143122.682188526030.0602362530.4102362530.791.200236253FF4.302236.302133447.6610640414254.9200390544910.11233485378322161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025226-5939.34428.14833.746123.057919886050.1129921870.5229921870.851.372992187FF7.344236.344133447.8043773230155.1058751892390.17357421637352161123126DRYL
2025-05-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025226-5940.44228.14834.295122.327685050780.1086614760.5186614760.861.378661476FF8.442239.442133447.5257221457354.7447855907670.20010155746112161123126DRYL
2025-05-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025226-5939.00228.14833.575122.725682263450.1389764530.5589764530.811.368976453FF7.002239.002133447.6776606348554.9415463355160.16578992412969161123126DRYL
2025-05-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025226-5938.44428.38233.413123.052610812340.1393701540.3493701540.731.079370154FF6.444232.444133447.802353262855.1032486968970.15358048593043161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025226-5935.40227.0531.226125.669348341240.1393701540.3493701540.751.099370154FF3.402226.402133448.796671237456.399985212120.097601461593443161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 16:00:03FORECAST2025226-5935.36626.83431.1125.226781162140.059055150.249055150.730.97905515FF3.366226.366133448.6289668664956.1803614567880.097043001328613161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.06825.68230.875124.965683751850.1007874560.6207874560.911.530787456FF4.068227.068133448.5299393615656.0508505554920.1083599791832161123126DRYL
2025-05-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.24825.53830.893126.588407654940.1007874560.6207874560.931.550787456FF4.248229.248133449.1443336856856.8564660085110.11140848340975161123126DRYL
2025-05-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025226-5936.33826.65431.496127.445056595180.1602363070.7302363070.891.620236307FF4.338224.338133449.4676575149657.2824310496950.11295547427586161123126DRYL
2025-05-07 00:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.15827.66231.91126.332701599550.1645670180.8545670180.691.544567018FF4.158218.158133449.0476864826156.7294073803740.1098766680843161123126DRYL
2025-05-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025226-5936.24826.88831.568129.91325184250.1622048120.8222048120.731.552204812FF4.248215.248133450.3953010835458.5123181783430.11140848340975161123126DRYL
2025-05-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025226-5936.01426.04231.028129.696974915460.1688977290.8188977290.731.548897729FF4.014213.014133450.3142480905858.4043957386790.10745720554045161123126DRYL
2025-05-06 12:00:03FORECAST2025226-5937.59828.16632.882126.664499341420.181102460.741102460.691.43110246FF5.598222.598133449.1730813441156.8942834660970.13623056592758161123126DRYL
2025-05-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025226-5936.44628.77832.612126.273388099630.1972442010.8372442010.711.547244201FF4.446232.446133449.0252592559756.6999408285670.1148319619651161123126DRYL
2025-05-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025226-5938.06629.04833.557123.1212204110.1082677750.4582677750.751.208267775FF6.066243.066133447.8285082575755.1371924715110.14565578510413161122124DRYL
2025-05-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025226-5934.7926.31230.551123.232023810760.1673229250.6473229250.791.437322925FF2.79229.79133447.8707385306355.192017514750.088423280293528161123126DRYL
2025-05-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025226-5935.81628.09431.955123.634012451420.1673229250.6473229250.731.377322925FF3.816241.816133448.0238479006255.3909859898790.10419328664844161123126DRYL
2025-05-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025226-5935.72626.3331.028124.256963575210.1826772640.5526772640.731.282677264FF3.726236.726133448.2608087942155.6995269905360.10273360449211161123126DRYL
2025-05-05 12:00:03FORECAST2025226-5940.71228.77834.745124.456880827660.1622048120.6122048120.911.522204812FF8.712234.712133448.3367747633555.798596547380.20697920797935161123126DRYL
2025-05-05 08:00:03FORECAST2025226-5940.71228.77834.745125.894921965610.1622048120.6122048120.881.492204812FF8.712226.712133448.8820765650956.5119740009250.20697920797935161123126DRYL
2025-05-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025226-5944.0628.90436.482125.787185563680.1185040010.5785040010.851.428504001FF12.06230.06133448.8412921615856.4584829057710.30308396600632162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-05 00:00:03FORECAST2025226-5932.9927.2330.11123.287752137350.1976379020.3076379020.680.987637902FF0.99237.99133447.8919736620655.2195946331590.065148778165026161122124DRYL
2025-05-04 20:00:03FORECAST2025226-5932.9927.2330.11123.031838711350.1976379020.3076379020.660.967637902FF0.99240.99133447.7944337314555.0929725466870.065148778165026161122124DRYL
2025-05-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025226-5934.68227.69831.19122.281983353920.1078740740.1778740740.610.787874074FF2.682242.682133447.50826533954.7221982529260.086872425860097161122124DRYL
2025-05-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025226-5928.41824.58426.501116.4692566234900.070.590.66FF-3.582272.418133445.2713601924451.8604243173420.027049020342488161121122DRYL
2025-05-04 08:00:04FORECAST2025226-5928.41824.58426.501115.8790167956900.10.590.69FF-3.582274.418133445.042366325251.5710718421930.027049020342488161122124DRYL
2025-05-04 04:00:04FORECAST2025226-5938.26435.6936.977115.06411530734000.570.57FF6.264286.264133444.7256463173751.1719630479930.14977197470655161121122DRYL