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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 13, 2025

[ Monday, May 12, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, May 14, 2025 ]

DAY 225 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/14/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.88°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.92°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.105
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 275

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.39 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.93 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.62 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.55 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 116 in
SWE DAY: 132
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.61 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.69 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -60

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-14 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025225-6035.9631.8799433.91997116.259610.39000000000010.93000000000010.621.5500000000001FF3.96274.96132444.60866170576 51.6900296125330.1046620370836616 1123126DRYL
2025-05-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025225-6037.2229.53433.377116.771542617860.0350393890.5750393890.621.195039389FF5.22276.22132444.8078582528951.9408997767360.12718681226008161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025225-6038.64229.28233.962116.666565825580.0523622330.5923622330.621.212362233FF6.642277.642132444.7670321603851.8894422345870.156405394328161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025225-6039.07429.3934.232116.691730842320.0795276020.6195276020.621.239527602FF7.074278.074132444.7768199755651.9017769614910.16609271365805161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 04:00:03FORECAST2025225-6039.23629.2134.223116.223149181120.0488189240.5888189240.621.208818924FF7.236278.236132444.5944646639651.6721687917370.16982306942832161123126DRYL
2025-05-13 00:00:01FORECAST2025225-6039.12829.06634.097115.500343025160.0559055420.3059055420.620.925905542FF7.128277.128132444.3127482685351.3182748354690.16733025443156161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 20:00:01FORECAST2025225-6038.4828.45433.467115.723109967070.0657480670.3557480670.620.975748067FF6.48277.48132444.3996276592751.4273069809380.15287031289809161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025225-6038.5728.3133.44115.774118427060.0657480670.3557480670.620.975748067FF6.57277.57132444.4195141076951.4522774575990.15482767110999161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 12:00:01FORECAST2025225-6039.5629.15634.358115.526263300720.0988189510.3888189510.621.008818951FF7.56278.56132444.3228597363551.3309596844290.17744317883976161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025225-6039.6529.06634.358115.554465490480.0956693430.3256693430.620.945669343FF7.65278.65132444.3338606199251.3447617632540.17959751279999161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 04:00:03FORECAST2025225-6039.7429.82234.781115.654342064860.1039370640.3939370640.621.013937064FF7.74278.74132444.3728133350851.3936453577780.18176817180145161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 00:00:01FORECAST2025225-6039.36228.74234.052116.590506836340.133858340.403858340.621.02385834FF7.362276.362132444.7374455701351.8521641881190.1727612148564161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 20:00:01FORECAST2025225-6039.18229.7534.466116.894114412360.1779528520.4379528520.621.057952852FF7.182275.182132444.855513371752.0009912770410.16857370712045161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 16:00:01FORECAST2025225-6039.09229.44434.268116.900461362870.1740158420.4740158420.621.094015842FF7.092275.092132444.857980620952.0041031755390.16650457024024161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025225-6038.94829.60634.277117.151112946170.1803150580.5303150580.621.150315058FF6.948273.948132444.955384581452.12701851510.16322811997366161123126DRYL
2025-05-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025225-6039.3829.19234.286117.258181279240.224409570.624409570.621.24440957FF7.38275.38132444.9969727596852.1795357005670.17318357302949161123126DRYL
2025-05-11 04:00:03FORECAST2025225-6039.18228.86834.025116.995663773580.2212599620.5812599620.621.201259962FF7.182276.182132444.894983868552.0507839472330.16857370712045161123126DRYL
2025-05-11 00:00:01FORECAST2025225-6039.12829.19234.16117.303729198330.1748032440.4848032440.621.104803244FF7.128268.128132445.0146613498252.2018793242660.16733025443156161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025225-6039.25428.86834.061119.061114474770.1043307650.4243307650.621.044330765FF7.254267.254132445.6955837281853.0650129151590.17024083633964161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 16:00:01FORECAST2025225-6039.63228.86834.25118.66631581240.0681102730.3381102730.620.958110273FF7.632268.632132445.5428783214852.8709319068630.17916533925553161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025225-6039.34428.88634.115117.923808518640.0370078940.3170078940.620.937007894FF7.344268.344132445.2552664570552.5061967835990.17233951221887161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025225-6038.35428.68833.521117.842813183730.0287401730.2987401730.620.918740173FF6.354268.354132445.2238599078152.4664321480560.15015762059701161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025225-6038.0328.92233.476118.305346057190.0421260070.3421260070.620.962126007FF6.03267.03132445.4031236284952.6935706758210.14332986968953161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025225-6038.49829.17433.836118.942359505770.0712598810.4012598810.621.021259881FF6.498259.498132445.6496662252353.0066228137870.15326046954999161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025225-6038.08429.24633.665121.332363971060.0688976750.3888976750.621.008897675FF6.084254.084132446.5711191072854.1835295624890.1444530695486161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025225-6037.9429.98433.962121.185547122490.0712598810.3812598810.621.001259881FF5.94254.94132446.5146758050254.1111252856530.14147097022019161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025225-6036.84229.1232.981119.782587785980.0539370370.3239370370.620.943937037FF4.842254.842132445.9742493343953.4199496711810.12010221888654161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025225-6037.52630.34433.935119.804469754670.0547244390.3547244390.620.974724439FF5.526259.526132445.9826931634153.4307200742010.13313042061903161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025225-6037.54429.78633.665120.394767575560.0535433360.3735433360.620.993543336FF5.544258.544132446.2103006845353.7213854407330.13348588411114161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 00:00:02FORECAST2025225-6037.45429.69633.575122.495609636050.1570866990.5770866990.621.197086699FF5.454251.454132447.0175821810754.7576912473020.13171506530514161123126DRYL
2025-05-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025225-6037.8529.4833.665122.675407604810.1511811840.5211811840.621.141181184FF5.85253.85132447.0864724639354.8465152441110.13962843055137161123126DRYL
2025-05-08 16:00:02FORECAST2025225-6037.2229.37233.296122.701806235920.1559055960.5059055960.631.135905596FF5.22251.22132447.0965845524354.8595584864930.12718681226008161123126DRYL
2025-05-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025225-6036.7728.97632.873122.793700867760.1696851310.5796851310.681.259685131FF4.77247.77132447.131779826654.9049660204940.118784834686161123126DRYL
2025-05-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025225-6036.82429.24633.035122.250006383320.1645670180.6045670180.671.274567018FF4.824249.824132446.9234274957654.636391864210.1197719145409161123126DRYL
2025-05-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025225-6036.71629.06632.891122.518190820580.1606300080.5706300080.661.230630008FF4.716250.716132447.0262359763454.7688456811540.11780349737587161123126DRYL
2025-05-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025225-6036.1428.32832.234122.906437028980.090551230.400551230.540.94055123FF4.14245.14132447.1749461031354.960679354160.10769058360445161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025225-6035.74427.89631.82125.275341981530.090551230.400551230.560.96055123FF3.744241.744132448.0791385534556.1332673170740.10110954663838161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025225-6035.9627.80631.883125.132999190020.086614220.366614220.550.91661422FF3.96241.96132448.0249609241656.0627070724330.10466203708366161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025225-6035.627.42831.514124.867817973520.0948819410.8848819410.551.434881941FF3.6241.6132447.9239770438555.9312896314880.098790393513794161123126DRYL
2025-05-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025225-6035.9627.24831.604126.338603750820.0948819410.8848819410.571.454881941FF3.96243.96132448.4832116081756.660742760260.10466203708366161123126DRYL
2025-05-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025225-6034.71826.630.659126.88727120330.1500000810.9000000810.561.460000081FF2.718238.718132448.6912961063756.9332141756070.085427259988198161123126DRYL
2025-05-07 00:00:02FORECAST2025225-6033.72827.80630.767125.73790719150.2248032710.8048032710.581.384803271FF1.728232.728132448.2550620578956.3626533911550.072089398171746161123126DRYL
2025-05-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025225-6034.35827.35630.857129.290823872070.2251969720.7551969720.631.385196972FF2.358230.358132449.5994438392358.1290825063990.080378761121623161123126DRYL
2025-05-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025225-6034.32226.9630.641129.04741611980.2295276830.7595276830.621.379527683FF2.322228.322132449.5077278273858.0078108020080.079886536815952161123126DRYL
2025-05-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025225-6039.4725.8832.675126.189404494330.2433072180.6533072180.61.253307218FF7.47236.47132448.4265769782556.5866827083160.17530519226011161123126DRYL
2025-05-06 08:00:02FORECAST2025225-6038.49828.09433.296125.617021130080.3114174910.7414174910.611.351417491FF6.498247.498132448.2091064355156.3026927938030.15326046954999161123126DRYL
2025-05-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025225-6042.58428.1335.357123.206232458940.0248031630.4548031630.651.104803163FF10.584255.584132447.2896765882255.108875870210.25851865532033162122125DRYL
2025-05-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025225-6035.67229.35432.513122.299565931320.2314961880.6214961880.651.271496188FF3.672245.672132446.9424314195854.6608653589040.099945073654051161123126DRYL
2025-05-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025225-6035.99631.08233.539123.008832231850.2314961880.6214961880.591.211496188FF3.996256.996132447.2141421528655.0112893837930.10526277361736161123126DRYL
2025-05-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025225-6035.628.20231.901123.33238597150.1354331440.5254331440.571.095433144FF3.6251.6132447.3379289112355.1712541081690.098790393513794161123126DRYL
2025-05-05 12:00:03FORECAST2025225-6035.99626.7831.388124.425435998850.1740158420.7140158420.651.364015842FF3.996244.996132447.7553617387355.7121561051640.10526277361736161123126DRYL
2025-05-05 08:00:03FORECAST2025225-6035.99626.7831.388125.779672298770.1740158420.6940158420.641.334015842FF3.996236.996132448.2709360555756.3833714381310.10526277361736161123126DRYL
2025-05-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025225-6036.17626.88831.532125.84386879790.1566929980.6866929980.621.306692998FF4.176237.176132448.2953324481656.4152189993180.10830377001325161123126DRYL
2025-05-05 00:00:03FORECAST2025225-6040.69432.46836.581121.638655869490.0531496350.2431496350.550.793149635FF8.694255.694132446.6888043808254.3346257568340.20577293780974161122124DRYL
2025-05-04 20:00:02FORECAST2025225-6040.69432.46836.581121.382742443490.0531496350.2431496350.530.773149635FF8.694258.694132446.5904821117554.2083774678830.20577293780974161122124DRYL
2025-05-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025225-6041.6333.38637.508121.470398809070.0244094620.1644094620.520.684409462FF9.63258.63132446.6241669974254.2516156829440.23105770637446161122124DRYL
2025-05-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025225-6049.0130.07439.542116.469256623490.0448819140.0848819140.580.664881914FF17.01295.01132444.6902679852251.7927449399380.47648721731122162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-04 08:00:03FORECAST2025225-6049.0130.07439.542115.879016795690.0614173560.1014173560.590.691417356FF17.01297.01132444.4604022858651.5036344215030.47648721731122162122125DRYL
2025-05-04 04:00:04FORECAST2025225-6051.47639.66845.572115.14568890734000.570.57FF19.476299.476132444.1743312411551.144759365720.56632705703805163121123DRYL
2025-05-04 00:00:04FORECAST2025225-6038.80436.537.652123.039720572830.0370078940.1070078940.520.627007894FF6.804255.804132447.2259639569555.0265576381760.15999374812295161122124DRYL
2025-05-03 20:00:02FORECAST2025225-6038.80436.537.652123.3941755730.0370078940.1070078940.540.647007894FF6.804254.804132447.3615571097655.2018105226130.15999374812295161122124DRYL
2025-05-03 16:00:03FORECAST2025225-6039.36238.31838.84125.105694707100.230.580.81FF7.362243.362132448.0145662221856.0491735461280.1727612148564161122124DRYL
2025-05-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025225-6053.76248.05650.909119.823052557200.180.440.62FF21.762306.762132445.9898635394453.4398668588640.64674159537646163122126DRYL
2025-05-03 08:00:03FORECAST2025225-6053.76248.05650.909119.935606528100.180.470.65FF21.762301.762132446.0332864783853.4952727455050.64674159537646163122126DRYL
2025-05-03 04:00:04FORECAST2025225-6046.68845.03245.86121.23868661070.007874020.317874020.490.80787402FF14.688276.688132446.5351075542854.1373299654490.39289648826599162122125DRYL