Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 12, 2025

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DAY 224 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/13/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.73°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.05°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.89°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.155 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 6 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 298 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.34 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.54 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.62 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.16 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 117 in SWE DAY: 131 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.16 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 51.79 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -61 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-13 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2025	224	-61	37.72994	30.05006	33.89	116.60901875	0.34000000000003	0.54000000000003	0.62	1.16	F	F	5.72994	297.72994	131	444.16154961957	51.793242467617	0.15535679687769	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-13 00:00:01	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	37.112	26.06	31.586	115.83076132043	0.048818924	0.248818924	0.62	0.868818924	F	F	5.112	297.112	131	443.85734289298	51.412333944955	0.14245659379421	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-12 12:00:01	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	37.76	26.204	31.982	115.8050132434	0.09055123	0.29055123	0.62	0.91055123	F	F	5.76	297.76	131	443.84726815595	51.399738766845	0.15600335258283	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-12 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	37.58	26.024	31.802	115.81457138388	0.030708678	0.230708678	0.62	0.850708678	F	F	5.58	297.58	131	443.85100815298	51.404414267539	0.15215813448591	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-12 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	38.084	27.464	32.774	115.89945445893	0.090944931	0.290944931	0.62	0.910944931	F	F	6.084	298.084	131	443.88421799921	51.445938709038	0.16308433722075	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-12 00:00:01	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	37.76	27.374	32.567	116.69580002107	0.081496107	0.271496107	0.62	0.891496107	F	F	5.76	295.76	131	444.19543359507	51.835741489083	0.15600335258283	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-11 20:00:01	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	36.518	27.446	31.982	116.8578958323	0.09842525	0.25842525	0.62	0.87842525	F	F	4.518	294.518	131	444.25870432976	51.915137393161	0.13075638555378	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-11 16:00:01	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	36.59	27.662	32.126	116.86801882442	0.136220546	0.296220546	0.62	0.916220546	F	F	4.59	294.59	131	444.26265476542	51.920096300111	0.13213822451229	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-11 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	36.266	28.166	32.216	117.05717251099	0.187795377	0.347795377	0.62	0.967795377	F	F	4.266	294.266	131	444.33645215444	52.012768732763	0.12599853290356	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-11 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	35.708	28.076	31.892	117.04437198121	0.221653663	0.401653663	0.62	1.021653663	F	F	3.708	294.708	131	444.33145920856	52.006496594563	0.11589524285726	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-11 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	35.6	27.104	31.352	116.72959187153	0.19291349	0.36291349	0.62	0.98291349	F	F	3.6	295.6	131	444.20862569169	51.852291582803	0.11400793198466	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-11 00:00:01	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	36.374	28.544	32.459	117.13601598621	0.13779535	0.30779535	0.62	0.92779535	F	F	4.374	288.374	131	444.36720208411	52.051403687069	0.12802266765406	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-10 20:00:01	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	35.996	28.328	32.162	119.17559230417	0.129527629	0.319527629	0.62	0.939527629	F	F	3.996	286.996	131	445.16052571485	53.052269322505	0.12103586700489	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-10 16:00:01	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	36.212	27.878	32.045	118.89902684187	0.091732333	0.271732333	0.62	0.891732333	F	F	4.212	288.212	131	445.0531921628	52.916391441023	0.12499485232878	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	35.978	28.184	32.081	118.22719286981	0.129133928	0.279133928	0.62	0.899133928	F	F	3.978	287.978	131	444.79214278903	52.586526452497	0.12070996686543	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-10 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	35.546	28.184	31.865	118.08587059039	0.108661476	0.268661476	0.62	0.888661476	F	F	3.546	288.546	131	444.73717354328	52.517176321769	0.11307250553559	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-10 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	35.384	27.464	31.424	118.49002794147	0.121259908	0.301259908	0.62	0.921259908	F	F	3.384	288.384	131	444.89432364835	52.715540840093	0.11029902187093	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	35.528	28.112	31.82	119.16631478144	0.135826845	0.325826845	0.62	0.945826845	F	F	3.528	279.528	131	445.15692638083	53.047710416236	0.11276191338633	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-09 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	35.42	27.734	31.577	121.56822562451	0.131889835	0.321889835	0.62	0.941889835	F	F	3.42	275.42	131	446.08595269414	54.229877745046	0.11091110916976	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-09 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	34.97	27.644	31.307	121.42299054635	0.146850473	0.306850473	0.62	0.926850473	F	F	2.97	275.97	131	446.02993860149	54.1582890182	0.10343302798291	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-09 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	34.988	27.464	31.226	119.92934187895	0.069685077	0.269685077	0.62	0.889685077	F	F	2.988	276.988	131	445.45266934467	53.42284547273	0.10372496685877	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-09 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	35.744	28.724	32.234	120.00400586744	0.095275642	0.295275642	0.62	0.915275642	F	F	3.744	280.744	131	445.48157771078	53.459573865444	0.11652923344655	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-09 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	35.96	27.986	31.973	120.55274290461	0.10629927	0.31629927	0.62	0.93629927	F	F	3.96	279.96	131	445.69386932021	53.729618442321	0.12038468304685	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-09 00:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	35.114	27.446	31.28	122.2840418714	0.217716653	0.417716653	0.62	1.037716653	F	F	3.114	273.114	131	446.36172615858	54.582916011369	0.1057852346069	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-08 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	35.69	26.924	31.307	122.47441198859	0.198819005	0.368819005	0.62	0.988819005	F	F	3.69	274.69	131	446.43498327751	54.67686206805	0.11557916475346	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-08 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	35.168	27.068	31.118	122.41646559209	0.194881995	0.364881995	0.62	0.984881995	F	F	3.168	273.168	131	446.41268843297	54.648263513425	0.10667717455638	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-08 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	33.332	26.726	30.029	122.50023276749	0.243700919	0.473700919	0.62	1.093700919	F	F	1.332	270.332	131	446.44491675132	54.689606219898	0.079295064832919	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	33.764	26.798	30.281	122.15923878863	0.250000135	0.490000135	0.62	1.110000135	F	F	1.764	271.764	131	446.31368093674	54.521339524185	0.085204260087047	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-08 04:00:04	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	33.458	26.564	30.011	122.47261172857	0.258661557	0.448661557	0.62	1.068661557	F	F	1.458	273.458	131	446.43429067784	54.675973544507	0.080985709022481	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	34.106	26.132	30.119	122.82089087901	0.116929197	0.306929197	0.54	0.846929197	F	F	2.106	268.106	131	446.56822239451	54.847906912749	0.090110914822982	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-07 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	33.08	25.772	29.426	125.13338017281	0.116929197	0.326929197	0.54	0.866929197	F	F	1.08	265.08	131	447.45449789156	55.991493794699	0.075993858398381	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-07 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	33.854	26.366	30.11	125.04123888196	0.095275642	0.285275642	0.54	0.825275642	F	F	1.854	264.854	131	447.41928367434	55.945861530318	0.086475709068292	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	33.188	27.554	30.371	124.89777711756	0.428740389	0.798740389	0.54	1.338740389	F	F	1.188	265.188	131	447.36443958071	55.874824065076	0.077395660724146	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	34.07	27.896	30.983	126.24449127505	0.428740389	0.798740389	0.56	1.358740389	F	F	2.07	267.07	131	447.87848994613	56.542192116285	0.089584781437725	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-07 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	32.504	26.78	29.642	126.33744082233	0.420472668	0.750472668	0.56	1.310472668	F	F	0.504	262.504	131	447.91390462127	56.58829641859	0.068840993510971	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-07 00:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	33.944	27.14	30.542	124.58380191681	0.473622303	0.593622303	0.57	1.163622303	F	F	1.944	257.944	131	447.24434003824	55.719400267736	0.087761241641601	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-06 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	35.024	26.618	30.821	128.17863891223	0.431496296	0.541496296	0.62	1.161496296	F	F	3.024	255.024	131	448.61369844814	57.502693264466	0.10431063122468	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-06 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	34.61	26.798	30.704	127.87171656606	0.415354555	0.535354555	0.61	1.145354555	F	F	2.61	252.61	131	448.49727204514	57.35011605161	0.097718579951127	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	33.854	25.7	29.777	125.74900588174	0.321653717	0.411653717	0.6	1.011653717	F	F	1.854	255.854	131	447.6895640804	56.29651762674	0.086475709068292	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-06 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	34.97	25.898	30.434	124.97502868718	0.333464747	0.433464747	0.61	1.043464747	F	F	2.97	267.97	131	447.39397461809	55.913074812369	0.10343302798291	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-06 04:00:04	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	35.348	25.808	30.578	123.76447533132	0.329527737	0.429527737	0.65	1.079527737	F	F	3.348	272.348	131	446.93048565583	55.314117066768	0.10968935309355	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-06 00:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	35.888	26.474	31.181	121.60570153202	0.252756042	0.392756042	0.65	1.042756042	F	F	3.888	268.888	131	446.10040300413	54.248352461035	0.11908970466694	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	37.85	27.788	32.819	122.45495765092	0.252756042	0.392756042	0.59	0.982756042	F	F	5.85	279.85	131	446.42749859757	54.667260434971	0.15794970891561	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	35.096	26.942	31.019	123.12661207668	0.232677291	0.392677291	0.57	0.962677291	F	F	3.096	275.096	131	446.68569072369	54.998895761939	0.10548911875957	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-05-05 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	34.034	25.25	29.642	124.28228363168	0.284645823	0.544645823	0.65	1.194645823	F	F	2.034	268.034	131	447.12891523642	55.570202663337	0.089060928166234	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-05 08:00:03	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	33.908	24.062	28.985	125.56507496759	0.284645823	0.524645823	0.64	1.164645823	F	F	1.908	259.908	131	447.61937169458	56.205359963778	0.087245334054298	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-05 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	33.89	24.53	29.21	125.59148376558	0.29527575	0.52527575	0.62	1.14527575	F	F	1.89	259.89	131	447.62945193261	56.218447045392	0.086988228102533	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-05 00:00:03	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	42.332	28.112	35.222	122.09482905291	0.063385861	0.193385861	0.55	0.743385861	F	F	10.332	274.332	131	446.28887927575	54.489564423387	0.27435667893021	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2025-05-04 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	42.332	31.154	36.743	121.8389156269	0.063385861	0.193385861	0.53	0.723385861	F	F	10.332	277.332	131	446.19029696281	54.363341945195	0.27435667893021	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2025-05-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	43.952	30.992	37.472	122.15644360907	0.046456718	0.136456718	0.52	0.656456718	F	F	11.952	275.952	131	446.31260470703	54.51996052891	0.32491914477635	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2025-05-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	52.898	41.972	47.435	117.91986942349	0.032677183	0.042677183	0.58	0.622677183	F	F	20.898	304.898	131	444.6725798984	52.435732557824	0.63704113187249	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	52.898	41.972	47.435	117.32962959569	0.038188997	0.038188997	0.59	0.628188997	F	F	20.898	306.898	131	444.442687661	52.14629591978	0.63704113187249	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-04 04:00:04	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	56.84	44.6	50.72	117.11792010734	0.003149608	0.003149608	0.57	0.573149608	F	F	24.84	306.84	131	444.3601450122	52.042535962426	0.7596284310075	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2025-05-04 00:00:03	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	46.022	33.116	39.569	123.18030096903	0.037401595	0.067401595	0.52	0.587401595	F	F	14.022	276.022	131	446.70631038079	55.025417757468	0.39441831767828	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2025-05-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	46.022	33.116	39.569	123.5347559692	0.037401595	0.067401595	0.54	0.607401595	F	F	14.022	275.022	131	446.84237117533	55.200563279842	0.39441831767828	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2025-05-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	43.736	32.504	38.12	125.3954827071	0.203937118	0.263937118	0.55	0.813937118	F	F	11.736	262.736	131	447.55462221379	56.121327890293	0.31795918350444	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2025-05-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	63.878	39.488	51.683	120.6331797572	0.116929197	0.176929197	0.44	0.616929197	F	F	31.878	311.878	131	445.72496331823	53.769219622238	0.90965451508819	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2025-05-03 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	63.878	39.488	51.683	120.7457337281	0.116929197	0.176929197	0.47	0.646929197	F	F	31.878	306.878	131	445.76846197789	53.824640014366	0.90965451508819	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2025-05-03 04:00:04	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	49.874	36.302	43.088	121.4659906107	0.260630062	0.310630062	0.49	0.800630062	F	F	17.874	288.874	131	446.04652496862	54.179483013775	0.53132528200465	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-03 00:00:03	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	46.598	41.468	44.033	120.45901493873	0.025984266	0.055984266	0.49	0.545984266	F	F	14.598	289.598	131	445.65762944019	53.683479042294	0.41448613306585	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2025-05-02 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	46.598	40.208	43.403	123.40951773532	0.025984266	0.055984266	0.49	0.545984266	F	F	14.598	295.598	131	446.79431132745	55.138670487804	0.41448613306585	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2025-05-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	42.926	38.948	40.937	123.78974796511	0.061417356	0.191417356	0.53	0.721417356	F	F	10.926	291.926	131	446.9401764538	55.326611798698	0.29244233303347	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2025-05-02 12:00:03	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	51.188	47.588	49.388	120.93862349222	0	0.06	0.53	0.59	F	F	19.188	315.188	131	445.84297904783	53.919636179717	0.57799784107918	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	51.188	47.588	49.388	120.81820421306	0	0.06	0.53	0.59	F	F	19.188	314.188	131	445.79646301837	53.860328106414	0.57799784107918	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-02 04:00:04	FORECAST	2025	224	-61	56.786	54.23	55.508	121.39932132565	0.001968505	0.021968505	0.5	0.521968505	F	F	24.786	323.786	131	446.02080792618	54.146623379357	0.75811453410108	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L