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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 11, 2025

[ Saturday, May 10, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, May 12, 2025 ]

DAY 223 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/12/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.27°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.81°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.04°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.145
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 313

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.20 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.20 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.62 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.82 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 116 in
SWE DAY: 130
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.34 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.42 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -62

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-12 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025223-6238.2699431.8099235.03993115.995502916670.199999999999930.199999999999930.620.81999999999993FF6.26994313.26994130443.33555724178 51.42493092310.144883532279516 1122124DRYL
2025-05-12 00:00:01FORECAST2025223-6236.21229.33632.774116.895541770910.1917323870.1917323870.620.811732387FF4.212311.212130443.6885032234651.8652079618320.10484975292517161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025223-6236.0529.35432.702116.963472003420.1551181940.1551181940.620.775118194FF4.05311.05130443.7151090100751.8984597301960.10207646160159161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025223-6237.20229.67833.44116.880656696590.1846457690.1846457690.620.804645769FF5.202312.202130443.6826726712851.8579221467160.12298317384289161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 04:00:03FORECAST2025223-6237.63429.33633.485116.461516525550.165354420.165354420.620.78535442FF5.634312.634130443.5184030052751.6528258209820.13154623035121161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 00:00:01FORECAST2025223-6237.81430.34434.079117.054178848020.1681103270.1681103270.620.788110327FF5.814304.814130443.7506284055351.9428654213020.13523251459851161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 20:00:01FORECAST2025223-6237.34628.9433.143119.099710449320.1897638820.1897638820.620.809763882FF5.346304.346130444.5494576136452.9457116821870.1257931341395161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 16:00:01FORECAST2025223-6237.97628.38233.179118.966592319980.1799213570.1799213570.620.799921357FF5.976304.976130444.4975979539152.8803645229930.13861000884959161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 12:00:01FORECAST2025223-6237.97629.64233.809118.168472089490.1531496890.1531496890.620.773149689FF5.976304.976130444.1863012826552.4888165456540.13861000884959161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025223-6237.16629.3933.278118.019389440420.1551181940.1551181940.620.775118194FF5.166306.166130444.1280835053652.4157252486460.12228759213251161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 04:00:03FORECAST2025223-6237.429.31833.359118.389611939920.1759843470.1759843470.620.795984347FF5.4306.4130444.2726172885652.5972627563250.12685829182994161122124DRYL
2025-05-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025223-6236.84228.88632.864118.996640712960.1925197890.1925197890.620.812519789FF4.842296.842130444.509305626152.8951141351570.11615110543087161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 20:00:01FORECAST2025223-6234.82628.92231.874121.388407786520.1905512840.1905512840.620.810551284FF2.826292.826130445.438342800354.0710511995940.082824751609334161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025223-6235.79829.35432.576121.168901692070.1566929980.1566929980.620.776692998FF3.798293.798130445.3533147911853.9629720181710.097868819702216161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025223-6237.0429.24633.143119.913929717190.204724520.204724520.620.82472452FF5.04295.04130444.8662767457453.3456634432360.11987475515223161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025223-6236.64430.2933.467119.938435476350.19685050.19685050.620.8168505FF4.644297.644130444.8758019765153.3577076703480.11251004293121161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 04:00:03FORECAST2025223-6236.60829.24632.927120.379609117380.2110237360.2110237360.620.831023736FF4.608296.608130445.0471819522253.5746058022020.11185686076601161122124DRYL
2025-05-09 00:00:02FORECAST2025223-6236.529.53433.017121.580523339110.204724520.204724520.620.82472452FF4.5290.5130445.5127219003454.1656698828750.10991354681201161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025223-6237.1330.0233.575121.922321183790.1700788320.1700788320.620.790078832FF5.13292.13130445.6449620225654.3340681936520.12159476824587161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 16:00:02FORECAST2025223-6236.89630.05633.476121.831530754220.1618111110.1718111110.620.791811111FF4.896290.896130445.6098467910354.2893297537060.11715843290159161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025223-6236.21228.5832.396121.528451794310.1704725330.2304725330.620.850472533FF4.212290.212130445.4925655633354.1400217787880.10484975292517161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025223-6236.44628.50832.477121.304932651620.1893701810.2393701810.620.859370181FF4.446291.446130445.4060134092754.0299464592380.1089509978371161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025223-6235.52828.81432.171121.445479143830.1527559880.1927559880.620.812755988FF3.528292.528130445.4604422305254.099156846310.093502780550792161122124DRYL
2025-05-08 00:00:02FORECAST2025223-6233.827.96830.884122.6348934940.188976480.188976480.540.72897648FF1.8286.8130445.9202843092154.6853865730750.06890031361466161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025223-6233.90827.62630.767124.871554542230.1885827790.2085827790.540.748582779FF1.908284.908130446.7812512257155.7902693808750.070275327029634161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025223-6234.4327.93231.181124.839736028660.1763780480.1863780480.540.726378048FF2.43284.43130446.7690374623155.7745287025750.077219326291348161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025223-6235.16828.32831.748124.121203807490.3551183020.3651183020.540.905118302FF3.168285.168130446.4929607448755.4192437792240.087906725117014161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025223-6235.09629.0332.063124.49070965340.3551183020.3651183020.560.925118302FF3.096286.096130446.6349963777855.6019076551130.08681802410228161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 04:00:03FORECAST2025223-6233.54828.00430.776124.4297403340.3338584480.3338584480.560.893858448FF1.548282.548130446.6115693520755.5717616046360.065772397168745161122124DRYL
2025-05-07 00:00:02FORECAST2025223-6234.93429.10232.018122.427107767190.1118110840.1218110840.570.691811084FF2.934276.934130445.8400519308954.5829080846730.084405209070298161122124DRYL
2025-05-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025223-6234.5227.8631.19126.222314790770.1047244660.1147244660.620.734724466FF2.52272.52130447.2988408154756.4590950909580.078467358321719161122124DRYL
2025-05-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025223-6234.89828.07631.487126.175058199110.106299270.116299270.610.72629927FF2.898270.898130447.2807628109256.4356762790080.083875903425442161122124DRYL
2025-05-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025223-6234.8827.53631.208124.21081137120.0913386320.0913386320.60.691338632FF2.88274.88130446.5274175519155.4635328336080.083612184072362161122124DRYL
2025-05-06 08:00:02FORECAST2025223-6235.56428.34631.955123.346631198590.0988189510.0988189510.610.708818951FF3.564285.564130446.194787132255.036623851130.09407649119337161122124DRYL
2025-05-06 04:00:03FORECAST2025223-6238.5730.70434.637122.294895844330.0980315490.0980315490.650.748031549FF6.57289.57130445.7889788448954.5177167363840.15148144947811161122124DRYL
2025-05-06 00:00:02FORECAST2025223-6237.86830.68634.277121.4418902510.1405512570.1405512570.650.790551257FF5.868285.868130445.4590526175354.0973893792940.13635203839234161122124DRYL
2025-05-05 20:00:02FORECAST2025223-6241.95432.3637.157122.424709644820.1405512570.1405512570.590.730551257FF9.954294.954130445.8391256958254.5817255116090.2393341245222161122124DRYL
2025-05-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025223-6240.44231.6436.041122.73084450510.1570866990.1570866990.570.727086699FF8.442293.442130445.9573196187554.7327184500420.19706821486938161122124DRYL
2025-05-05 12:00:02FORECAST2025223-6237.72428.92233.323122.940527780480.2578741550.2578741550.650.907874155FF5.724286.724130446.0382220634954.8361744307530.13338063781379161122124DRYL
2025-05-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025223-6234.05227.06830.56124.022684696770.2397639090.2397639090.640.879763909FF2.052279.052130446.4550681273455.3705561456310.072141269861084161122124DRYL
2025-05-05 04:00:03FORECAST2025223-6234.19628.36431.28123.90496596480.2314961880.2314961880.620.851496188FF2.196279.196130446.4097784771755.3123884085670.074044824509082161122124DRYL
2025-05-05 00:00:03FORECAST2025223-6240.98231.60436.293122.318036489790.1275591240.1275591240.550.677559124FF8.982284.982130445.7979192480654.5291261536570.2116187435362161122124DRYL
2025-05-04 20:00:02FORECAST2025223-6245.17632.59438.885122.130499331710.1275591240.1275591240.530.657559124FF13.176288.176130445.7254490174554.4366716533540.34372893466705162122125DRYL
2025-05-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025223-6245.4130.63238.021122.646352759130.0877953230.0877953230.520.607795323FF13.41285.41130445.9247078475154.6910390226780.35194471045378162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025223-6254.96837.88646.427119.930476623490.0082677210.0082677210.580.588267721FF22.968304.968130444.8727084866753.3537959655870.70125060854472164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-04 08:00:03FORECAST2025223-6254.93241.55848.245119.340236795690.003937010.003937010.590.59393701FF22.932306.932130444.6431165089153.0638148137470.70006252340848164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-04 04:00:04FORECAST2025223-6256.06643.3449.703119.579297707340.003937010.003937010.570.57393701FF24.066303.066130444.7361480958953.1812362543750.73641371665982164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025223-6244.0633.85438.957124.103647975860.0303149770.0303149770.520.550314977FF12.06283.06130446.4862090800655.4105673177470.3056080650656162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-03 20:00:02FORECAST2025223-6244.0633.85438.957124.458102976030.0303149770.0303149770.540.570314977FF12.06282.06130446.6224679460855.5857851070420.3056080650656162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-03 16:00:02FORECAST2025223-6241.5431.71236.626125.497916469560.0303149770.0603149770.550.610314977FF9.54271.54130447.0214838529556.1002648406780.22729402728842161121122DRYL
2025-05-03 12:00:02FORECAST2025223-6254.10444.43849.271122.64053975720.0559055420.0559055420.440.495905542FF22.104301.104130445.9224639119754.6881716640230.67216936665043163121123DRYL
2025-05-03 08:00:02FORECAST2025223-6254.10444.43849.271122.75309372810.0559055420.0559055420.470.525905542FF22.104296.104130445.9659061168454.7436946730950.67216936665043163121123DRYL
2025-05-03 04:00:04FORECAST2025223-6252.10643.5247.813122.88216341070.0464567180.0464567180.490.536456718FF20.106292.106130446.0157075696154.8073750613090.6010579160133163121123DRYL
2025-05-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025223-6255.23845.550.369120.975910138730.0232283590.0332283590.490.523228359FF23.238296.238130445.2785182969153.8679740161920.71009230030152164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-02 20:00:02FORECAST2025223-6255.65244.27649.964123.883018535320.0232283590.0332283590.490.523228359FF23.652301.652130446.4013331965655.301544634580.72340629470101164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-02 16:00:03FORECAST2025223-6253.6943.93448.812124.171835165110.1287402270.1287402270.530.658740227FF21.69301.69130446.5124309905155.4442679801260.65784090826061163122126DRYL
2025-05-02 12:00:03FORECAST2025223-6260.83639.75850.297121.694335492220.0602362530.0602362530.530.590236253FF28.836316.836130445.5567680850754.2217348161750.86119957943633165121124DRYL
2025-05-02 08:00:03FORECAST2025223-6260.83639.75850.297121.573916213060.0602362530.0602362530.530.590236253FF28.836315.836130445.5101645003154.1624154110290.86119957943633165121124DRYL
2025-05-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025223-6268.05439.72253.888121.784852525650.0200787510.0200787510.50.520078751FF36.054320.054130445.5917897887754.2663304060670.96189955213723165121118DRYL
2025-05-02 00:00:03FORECAST2025223-6250.97240.83845.905124.00040701434000.510.51FF18.972282.972130446.4464983259555.3595475025460.55896646829192163121123DRYL
2025-05-01 20:00:03FORECAST2025223-6250.88239.77645.329128.00944908356000.540.54FF18.882283.882130447.980918579457.3457905872970.55559052592323163121123DRYL
2025-05-01 16:00:03FORECAST2025223-6248.97437.63443.304128.69318789865000.530.53FF16.974275.974130448.2410565811557.6855705184870.48345956303152162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-01 12:00:03FORECAST2025223-6251.96247.31849.64125.41482803813000.590.59FF19.962296.962130446.9896383941856.0591286340340.59576698632299163121123DRYL
2025-05-01 08:00:03FORECAST2025223-6251.96247.31849.64125.33805322929000.60.6FF19.962297.962130446.960206794656.0211221905980.59576698632299163121123DRYL
2025-05-01 04:00:05FORECAST2025223-6251.13448.99250.063125.17579201523000.630.63FF19.134299.134130446.8979851211555.940809237550.56503221926183163121123DRYL