MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 10, 2025

[ Friday, May 9, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, May 11, 2025 ]

DAY 222 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/11/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.99°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.01°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.616
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 325

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.62 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.62 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 117 in
SWE DAY: 129
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 442.96 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.62 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -63

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-11 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025222-6350.9937.0099443.99997116.53684041667000.620.62FF18.99324.99129442.96028320666 51.6211918349760.6159195997827616 3121123DRYL
2025-05-11 00:00:01FORECAST2025222-6343.26834.48438.876117.083896000.620.62FF11.268317.268129443.1754257178751.8887054545070.33732719491477162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-10 12:00:01FORECAST2025222-6342.7132.16237.436118.19066000.620.62FF10.71316.71129443.6097736319952.4305319280160.31867591574713162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025222-6345.15833.15239.155118.038140.0023622060.0023622060.620.622362206FF13.158319.158129443.5499898954852.3558158042810.40327573238291162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-10 04:00:03FORECAST2025222-6344.92432.84638.885118.421004933330.0011811030.0011811030.620.621181103FF12.924318.924129443.7000187579352.5434021102530.394915411275162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025222-6343.80832.8138.309118.87869280.0015748040.0015748040.620.621574804FF11.808309.808129443.8791762695752.7677762360670.35576602813561162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-09 20:00:01FORECAST2025222-6342.87232.28837.58121.152426295590.0023622060.0023622060.620.622362206FF10.872307.872129444.7661264671453.8844953555870.32404634420396162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025222-6342.85433.2638.057121.113897779890.0047244120.0047244120.620.624724412FF10.854307.854129444.7511396808753.86554406880.32344779303586162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-09 12:00:01FORECAST2025222-6342.85433.56638.21119.873982634970.0031496080.0031496080.620.623149608FF10.854307.854129444.2680547280453.2561810777420.32344779303586162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025222-6343.71834.46639.092119.736823014330.0027559070.0027559070.620.622755907FF11.718310.718129444.2145222713253.1888356335960.35266794608421162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-09 04:00:03FORECAST2025222-6343.0732.61237.841120.169147831420.0035433090.0035433090.620.623543309FF11.07310.07129444.3831924425553.4011495464290.3306601379577162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-09 00:00:02FORECAST2025222-6343.12431.96437.544121.35176080.0015748040.0015748040.620.621574804FF11.124304.124129444.8436399991253.9825589945750.33247321970629162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025222-6343.64632.30637.976121.833531758090.0007874020.0007874020.620.620787402FF11.646304.646129445.0308202470654.2196765718980.35019648140078162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-08 16:00:02FORECAST2025222-6343.10632.75637.931121.792700185010.0066929170.0066929170.620.626692917FF11.106304.106129445.0149650266154.1995742133290.33186842115383162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025222-6343.98831.89237.94121.324898510940.0594488510.0594488510.620.679448851FF11.988303.988129444.8331965746253.9693424287120.36199065941804162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025222-6343.66432.57638.12121.2024880.0535433360.0535433360.620.673543336FF11.664304.664129444.7855972316853.9091210110450.35081375828979162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-08 04:00:03FORECAST2025222-6343.82632.79238.309121.313930733330.0448819140.0448819140.620.664881914FF11.826306.826129444.8289323564753.9639462880750.35638679663084162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-08 00:00:02FORECAST2025222-6342.9832.43237.706122.080984103660.003937010.003937010.540.54393701FF10.98302.98129445.1268727642254.3415266780390.32764715747456162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025222-6341.48632.1836.833124.299854927650.015748040.015748040.540.55574804FF9.486301.486129445.9854699341355.4359292126540.27938337432974162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025222-6341.12632.34236.734124.46108320.0094488240.0094488240.540.549448824FF9.126300.126129446.047669207155.515576068350.26829084519869162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025222-6341.82831.80236.815123.498864796590.0122047310.0122047310.540.552204731FF9.828299.828129445.6760829346755.0404903094210.29012324570405162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-07 08:00:01FORECAST2025222-6341.93632.86437.4123.281302351440.0082677210.0082677210.560.568267721FF9.936300.936129445.5919394402854.9331546115020.29355449414578162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-07 04:00:03FORECAST2025222-6340.130.90235.501123.08731679787000.560.56FF8.1299.1129445.5168752177154.837476758720.23793944378103161121122DRYL
2025-05-07 00:00:02FORECAST2025222-6340.15430.97435.564122.026760441070.0114173290.0114173290.570.581417329FF8.154292.154129445.1058301621854.3148225081220.23948860660148161121122DRYL
2025-05-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025222-6340.06430.84835.456125.847084068660.0114173290.0114173290.620.631417329FF8.064288.064129446.5813166728856.2009565028240.23690972369537161121122DRYL
2025-05-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025222-6341.19831.06436.131125.825439593070.0114173290.0114173290.610.621417329FF9.198286.198129446.5729974017956.1902437084740.27049153270991162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025222-6343.57431.22637.4124.01029966135000.60.6FF11.574289.574129445.8737002008955.2929311730280.34773134124473162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-06 08:00:02FORECAST2025222-6345.35633.04439.2123.25701124218000.610.61FF13.356300.356129445.5825418317554.9211723678760.41038470533971162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-06 04:00:03FORECAST2025222-6349.7335.38442.557122.5368072202000.650.65FF17.73300.73129445.3036497174954.5660874798830.57071244916811163121123DRYL
2025-05-06 00:00:02FORECAST2025222-6351.18835.7843.484121.71399742208000.650.65FF19.188298.188129444.9843994859654.16083005190.62289893738693163121123DRYL
2025-05-05 20:00:02FORECAST2025222-6354.03239.43446.733123.15076531042000.590.59FF22.032303.032129445.5414311847654.8687682279030.71778737127013164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025222-6354.19438.58846.391123.242903906610.0043307110.0043307110.570.574330711FF22.194303.194129445.5770837984854.9142137215630.72283126057535164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-05 12:00:02FORECAST2025222-6351.24235.97843.61122.51028360335000.650.65FF19.242299.242129445.2933689570854.5530169176250.62479555541384163121123DRYL
2025-05-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025222-6348.99233.47641.234122.9011604463000.640.64FF16.992294.992129445.4448057806654.7456835452190.54375493950142163121123DRYL
2025-05-05 04:00:03FORECAST2025222-6348.8333.67441.252122.83528186569000.620.62FF16.83294.83129445.419293075454.7132044133320.53780592176878163121123DRYL
2025-05-05 00:00:03FORECAST2025222-6350.4537.1343.79122.46205035593000.550.55FF18.45294.45129445.2746715997654.5292492556710.59669934537243163121123DRYL
2025-05-04 20:00:02FORECAST2025222-6349.98236.87843.43122.61853893162000.530.53FF17.982292.982129445.3353252100854.6063669118960.57984887777976163121123DRYL
2025-05-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025222-6348.16435.00641.585123.03458658176000.520.52FF16.164290.164129445.4964644553354.8114733278970.51327436754331163121123DRYL
2025-05-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025222-6354.0541.43247.741121.65965982349000.580.58FF22.05300.05129444.9632930005154.134082860380.71834997605195164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-04 08:00:03FORECAST2025222-6355.70643.6149.658121.47512319569000.590.59FF23.706301.706129444.8915912402854.0432608546410.76767395082171164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-04 04:00:03FORECAST2025222-6356.1243.98850.054121.88225130734000.570.57FF24.12297.12129445.0497362791654.2436638014430.77920982593934164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025222-6352.03439.95645.995125.14088237586000.520.52FF20.034289.034129446.3096448535455.8515827698280.65224487152925163121123DRYL
2025-05-03 20:00:02FORECAST2025222-6347.89438.17443.034125.37538777603000.540.54FF15.894287.894129446.3999118099155.9675620463540.5033095363388163121123DRYL
2025-05-03 16:00:02FORECAST2025222-6344.6936.15840.424126.095165895030.0303149770.0303149770.550.580314977FF12.69279.69129446.6766367527356.3237646127680.3866031855417162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-03 12:00:02FORECAST2025222-6354.35643.32248.839124.8959661572000.440.44FF22.356297.356129446.2153130964155.7304926433120.72783068949402164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-03 08:00:02FORECAST2025222-6354.7740.4647.615125.0085201281000.470.47FF22.77291.77129446.2586715914455.7861361299760.74040012943858164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-03 04:00:03FORECAST2025222-6353.47440.4646.967124.9511218107000.490.49FF21.474290.474129446.2365619287555.7577590059480.70008423197591164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025222-6356.0337.18446.607123.474679738730.0074803190.0074803190.490.497480319FF24.03291.03129445.6667315250655.0285569452630.77673025074227164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-02 20:00:02FORECAST2025222-6355.81440.76648.29126.285454535320.0074803190.0074803190.490.497480319FF23.814295.814129446.7497103558256.4179902358060.77071517300555164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-02 16:00:03FORECAST2025222-6354.19440.62247.408126.3818007651100.020.510.53FF22.194298.194129446.7866952419456.465707102570.72283126057535164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-02 12:00:03FORECAST2025222-6356.49843.98850.243123.70356509222000.530.53FF24.498306.498129445.755209475755.1415085705760.78945055504579164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-02 08:00:03FORECAST2025222-6356.49843.98850.243123.5831458130600.010.520.53FF24.498305.498129445.708666596555.0820791341410.78945055504579164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025222-6357.03843.57450.306124.09075812565000.50.5FF25.038302.038129445.9047658050755.3326604405920.80358706365605164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-02 00:00:03FORECAST2025222-6352.35835.45643.907124.4981142143400.010.50.51FF20.358282.358129446.0619515798355.5338717944580.66325755524293163121123DRYL
2025-05-01 20:00:03FORECAST2025222-6352.30434.66443.484128.4694690835600.020.520.54FF20.304283.304129447.5858795863257.5011203197540.66143148353488163121123DRYL
2025-05-01 16:00:03FORECAST2025222-6350.30632.50441.405129.0666158986500.030.50.53FF18.306277.306129447.8136961515257.7977983153430.59153213122824163121123DRYL
2025-05-01 12:00:03FORECAST2025222-6365.28237.02251.152126.1730984381300.070.520.59FF33.282295.282129446.7065682522256.3623518090480.94723537785865165121124DRYL
2025-05-01 08:00:03FORECAST2025222-6365.28237.02251.152126.0963236292900.070.530.6FF33.282296.282129446.6770814463156.3243378198420.94723537785865165121124DRYL
2025-05-01 04:00:05FORECAST2025222-6365.24637.56251.404125.4719760152300.070.560.63FF33.246298.246129446.4370753929456.0153420160120.94687460285998165121124DRYL
2025-05-01 00:00:03FORECAST2025222-6347.35437.74242.548125.8500625282200.070.540.61FF15.354292.354129446.5824614378656.202430695960.48337989753128162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-30 20:00:03FORECAST2025222-6347.35437.74242.548128.5922623411800.070.530.6FF15.354283.354129447.6327544796257.5621085965480.48337989753128162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-30 16:00:03FORECAST2025222-6345.15837.34641.252128.4720543025300.070.540.61FF13.158281.158129447.5868666141657.5024042327520.40327573238291162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-30 12:00:03FORECAST2025222-6347.5741.05444.312127.1776898077700.010.630.64FF15.57291.57129447.0918710083156.8601112866730.49134955989803162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-30 08:00:02FORECAST2025222-6347.5741.05444.312127.3194753622200.010.640.65FF15.57292.57129447.146172561856.9304161007920.49134955989803162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-30 04:00:05FORECAST2025222-6344.85242.40443.628128.220968727550.0011811030.3011811030.660.961181103FF12.852277.852129447.4909727317157.3777260204950.39235251257312162122125DRYL