Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 9, 2025

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DAY 221 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/10/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.84°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.72°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.78°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.843 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 27 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 314 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.11 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.52 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.63 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 119 in SWE DAY: 128 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.49 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 52.95 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -64 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-10 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2025	221	-64	58.83998	40.71992	49.77995	119.38296333333	0	0.11	0.52	0.63	F	F	26.83998	313.83998	128	443.49068514442	52.945232203271	0.84336533321131	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2025-05-10 00:00:01	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	50.9	31.712	41.306	119.7964696	0	0.11	0.52	0.63	F	F	18.9	305.9	128	443.65277702357	53.148036415659	0.61008101378582	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-09 12:00:01	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	50.45	32.054	41.252	120.7924352	0	0.11	0.52	0.63	F	F	18.45	305.45	128	444.04249119258	53.636973843426	0.59414921966578	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-09 08:00:01	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	51.764	32.27	42.017	120.7433336	0	0.11	0.52	0.63	F	F	19.764	306.764	128	444.02330118531	53.612853581191	0.64013668308788	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-09 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	51.854	32.774	42.314	121.04470408333	0	0.11	0.52	0.63	F	F	19.854	306.854	128	444.14104580746	53.760921461026	0.64322182101323	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-09 00:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	52.286	33.08	42.683	122.2107928	0	0.11	0.52	0.63	F	F	20.286	301.286	128	444.59578535356	54.334403403597	0.65789737082169	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-08 20:00:01	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	51.926	33.062	42.494	122.7115504	0	0.11	0.52	0.63	F	F	19.926	300.926	128	444.79065275551	54.580950603057	0.64568321850449	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-08 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	51.656	32.972	42.314	122.6690416	0	0.11	0.52	0.63	F	F	19.656	300.656	128	444.77412028667	54.560015064049	0.63642245182228	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-08 12:00:01	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	50.936	33.98	42.458	122.1902272	0	0.11	0.52	0.63	F	F	18.936	299.936	128	444.58777704978	54.324281488056	0.61134799050342	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	51.458	34.052	42.755	122.096452	0	0.11	0.52	0.63	F	F	19.458	301.458	128	444.55125541413	54.278131018211	0.6295798563376	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-08 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	51.692	33.854	42.773	122.26467153333	0	0.11	0.52	0.63	F	F	19.692	302.692	128	444.61676390378	54.360922596909	0.63766197377681	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-08 00:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	52.862	33.566	43.214	122.96500970366	0	0.03	0.52	0.55	F	F	20.862	299.862	128	444.88919078426	54.705803661838	0.67709662170727	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-07 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	52.862	33.368	43.115	125.0370184	0	0.03	0.52	0.55	F	F	20.862	299.862	128	445.69235634697	55.728043361295	0.67709662170727	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-07 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	51.872	32.936	42.404	125.1349264	0	0.03	0.52	0.55	F	F	19.872	298.872	128	445.7302035995	55.77641622168	0.64383773414821	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-07 12:00:01	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	50.504	32.792	41.648	124.1716888	0	0.03	0.52	0.55	F	F	18.504	297.504	128	445.35744558571	55.300786138032	0.59606985600648	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-07 08:00:01	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	51.278	33.206	42.242	124.05704838719	0	0.05	0.52	0.57	F	F	19.278	299.278	128	445.31302076289	55.24421896423	0.62332348327574	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-07 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	51.386	34.016	42.701	123.66797519787	0	0.05	0.52	0.57	F	F	19.386	299.386	128	445.16215277107	55.052302067925	0.62708131116535	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-07 00:00:01	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	51.728	33.62	42.674	122.58604172777	0	0.06	0.52	0.58	F	F	19.728	291.728	128	444.74183493533	54.519141135467	0.6389000548009	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-06 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	49.676	32.45	41.063	126.38832483477	0	0.11	0.52	0.63	F	F	17.676	287.676	128	446.2138858947	56.396225556247	0.56639282730892	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-06 16:00:01	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	49.424	32.198	40.811	126.43107311562	0	0.1	0.52	0.62	F	F	17.424	285.424	128	446.23035517491	56.417382661529	0.55727767893766	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	50.486	32.81	41.648	124.78096846135	0	0.09	0.52	0.61	F	F	18.486	286.486	128	445.59333334496	55.601567674705	0.59542989868452	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-06 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	52.736	33.512	43.124	124.27535284218	0	0.1	0.52	0.62	F	F	20.736	294.736	128	445.39760576986	55.351944612113	0.67293467080127	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-06 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	52.376	32.756	42.566	123.9793512202	0	0.14	0.52	0.66	F	F	20.376	291.376	128	445.28290462821	55.205885625251	0.66092588135514	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-06 00:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	53.006	33.044	43.025	123.27904942208	0	0.14	0.52	0.66	F	F	21.006	287.006	128	445.01119285711	54.86055683761	0.68182611856616	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	53.78	32.99	43.385	125.02912291042	0	0.08	0.52	0.6	F	F	21.78	288.78	128	445.68930386154	55.724142752364	0.70672736504057	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2025-05-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	53.582	32.936	43.259	125.08219670661	0	0.06	0.52	0.58	F	F	21.582	288.582	128	445.70982161318	55.750363581088	0.70044349592086	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2025-05-05 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	53.672	31.568	42.62	124.16369880335	0	0.14	0.52	0.66	F	F	21.672	287.672	128	445.35434976547	55.296843345043	0.70330736002003	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2025-05-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	52.988	31.262	42.125	124.3242212463	0	0.13	0.52	0.65	F	F	20.988	285.988	128	445.41653406861	55.376063728305	0.68123652822891	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-05 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	53.204	31.964	42.584	124.25775226569	0	0.11	0.52	0.63	F	F	21.204	286.204	128	445.39078792712	55.343258187667	0.68828098161775	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	53.078	31.496	42.287	124.09145595593	0	0.09	0.47	0.56	F	F	21.078	284.078	128	445.3263555535	55.261195836184	0.68417986769587	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-04 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	52.196	31.172	41.684	124.19195493162	0	0.07	0.47	0.54	F	F	20.196	283.196	128	445.36529766023	55.310786975125	0.65485867487963	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-04 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	52.196	31.424	41.81	124.41848418176	0	0.06	0.47	0.53	F	F	20.196	282.196	128	445.45303848768	55.422591822797	0.65485867487963	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-04 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	54.302	33.872	44.087	123.67882782349	0	0.12	0.47	0.59	F	F	22.302	286.302	128	445.16636303399	55.057653966489	0.72299431504041	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2025-05-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	54.716	33.17	43.943	123.73753599569	0	0.13	0.47	0.6	F	F	22.716	285.716	128	445.18913678611	55.086606837963	0.73557393464027	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2025-05-04 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	54.284	32.612	43.448	124.22279370734	0	0.11	0.47	0.58	F	F	22.284	281.284	128	445.37724531031	55.326005666127	0.72244080813132	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2025-05-04 00:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	52.448	33.818	43.133	126.91503437586	0	0.11	0.42	0.53	F	F	20.448	277.448	128	446.41668229947	56.656988579994	0.66334124101142	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	52.7	34.124	43.412	126.82462297603	0	0.11	0.44	0.55	F	F	20.7	279.7	128	446.38189092503	56.612215019895	0.67174155451499	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	51.584	33.71	42.647	127.32477229503	0	0.12	0.44	0.56	F	F	19.584	274.584	128	446.57425417685	56.85996522589	0.63393913257541	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-05-03 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	55.616	31.442	43.529	126.9854901572	0	0.01	0.44	0.45	F	F	23.616	282.616	128	446.44378897772	56.691883370971	0.76188241131994	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2025-05-03 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	52.484	32.252	42.368	127.2121881281	0	0.03	0.45	0.48	F	F	20.484	277.484	128	446.53097430602	56.804182308439	0.6645464080062	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-03 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	51.962	32.54	42.251	127.0544218107	0	0.03	0.47	0.5	F	F	19.962	276.962	128	446.47030457912	56.726026403948	0.64691164775556	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-03 00:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	52.178	32.594	42.386	125.54472053873	0	0.03	0.47	0.5	F	F	20.178	275.178	128	445.88851125407	55.978948536821	0.65424972866859	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-02 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	54.014	33.8	43.907	128.44533453532	0	0.03	0.47	0.5	F	F	22.014	280.014	128	447.0043494005	57.41562319749	0.71407405203691	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2025-05-02 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	53.654	33.764	43.709	128.40342876511	0	0.05	0.49	0.54	F	F	21.654	283.654	128	446.98828711359	57.394828683229	0.70273559000392	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2025-05-02 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	58.298	36.626	47.462	126.03170909222	0	0.01	0.53	0.54	F	F	26.298	290.298	128	446.07642576134	56.219774324453	0.83112249133772	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2025-05-02 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	57.758	35.906	46.832	125.91128981306	0	0.02	0.52	0.54	F	F	25.758	288.758	128	446.02998114598	56.160210221386	0.81833099530229	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2025-05-02 04:00:04	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	57.848	36.752	47.3	126.43228452565	0	0.01	0.5	0.51	F	F	25.848	284.848	128	446.23082185887	56.417982233376	0.82050390835185	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2025-05-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	50.414	33.746	42.08	126.09111181434	0	0.02	0.5	0.52	F	F	18.414	270.414	128	446.09933161657	56.249160703169	0.59286753245621	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-01 20:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	49.226	32.45	40.838	129.98364828356	0	0.03	0.52	0.55	F	F	17.226	271.226	128	447.59279615669	58.179744589887	0.55009419739823	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	47.516	31.046	39.281	130.29415589865	0	0.04	0.5	0.54	F	F	15.516	266.516	128	447.71129511086	58.33416528276	0.48762078143549	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2025-05-01 12:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	48.722	28.886	38.804	128.32746803813	0	0.07	0.53	0.6	F	F	16.722	269.722	128	446.95916736141	57.357138263922	0.5317401903082	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-01 08:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	48.722	28.886	38.804	128.25069322929	0	0.07	0.54	0.61	F	F	16.722	270.722	128	446.92972981915	57.319047674087	0.5317401903082	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-01 04:00:05	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	48.452	28.13	38.291	127.64199121523	0	0.07	0.57	0.64	F	F	16.452	273.452	128	446.69613367872	57.017183970895	0.52187733551627	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-05-01 00:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	48.164	30.254	39.209	126.20636892822	0	0.07	0.55	0.62	F	F	16.164	285.164	128	446.1437652238	56.306184628859	0.51134231659036	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-04-30 20:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	48.164	30.254	39.209	128.94856874118	0	0.07	0.54	0.61	F	F	16.164	276.164	128	447.1971032502	57.665426409315	0.51134231659036	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-04-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	48.02	31.1	39.56	128.79805350253	0	0.07	0.55	0.62	F	F	16.02	276.02	128	447.13947720596	57.590694308265	0.50607137714687	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2025-04-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	58.64	35.996	47.318	127.69045220777	0	0.01	0.64	0.65	F	F	26.64	283.64	128	446.71474435646	57.041207714757	0.83891755561325	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2025-04-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	58.64	35.996	47.318	127.83223776222	0	0.01	0.65	0.66	F	F	26.64	284.64	128	446.76918170212	57.111504260177	0.83891755561325	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2025-04-30 04:00:05	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	50.45	35.564	43.007	128.41166792755	0.038188997	0.298188997	0.67	0.968188997	F	F	18.45	273.45	128	446.99144528128	57.398917037917	0.59414921966578	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2025-04-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	38.786	28.256	33.521	133.75715590406	0.003543309	0.303543309	0.48	0.783543309	F	F	6.786	244.786	128	449.02656491495	60.060516248392	0.20262129657074	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-04-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	38.786	28.256	33.521	133.69503190284	0.003543309	0.303543309	0.46	0.763543309	F	F	6.786	244.786	128	449.00307158324	60.029479979793	0.20262129657074	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-04-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	39.578	28.058	33.818	132.9564919844	0.003543309	0.213543309	0.44	0.653543309	F	F	7.578	245.578	128	448.72349497111	59.660701762337	0.22375127983755	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-04-29 12:00:03	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	40.118	36.176	38.147	132.82730741077	0	0.15	0.61	0.76	F	F	8.118	250.118	128	448.6745378293	59.596230763637	0.23884748988363	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-04-29 08:00:04	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	40.118	36.176	38.147	132.8777661792	0	0.15	0.58	0.73	F	F	8.118	248.118	128	448.69366212566	59.621411522022	0.23884748988363	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2025-04-29 04:00:05	FORECAST	2025	221	-64	48.974	47.174	48.074	131.21253008123	0	0.06	0.63	0.69	F	F	16.974	272.974	128	448.06122756352	58.791247299911	0.54092809899812	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L