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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 8, 2025

[ Wednesday, May 7, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, May 9, 2025 ]

DAY 220 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/09/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.65°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.01°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.33°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.538
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 287

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.11 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.69 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.80 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 122 in
SWE DAY: 127
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.06 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 54.32 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -65

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-09 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025220-6548.6524.0099836.32999122.3307920833300.110.690.8FF16.65286.65127444.05901867598 54.322091486380.5382763977158216 3122126DRYL
2025-05-09 00:00:02FORECAST2025220-6542.51222.47832.495123.534666400.110.690.8FF10.512280.512127444.5287213958454.9147073028540.31316267241892162122125DRYL
2025-05-08 12:00:01FORECAST2025220-6542.63822.65832.648123.501210400.110.690.8FF10.638280.638127444.5156876207354.8982254629490.31741584576715162122125DRYL
2025-05-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025220-6544.47422.29833.386123.464113600.110.690.8FF12.474282.474127444.5012341692154.8799508708080.38187947279205162122125DRYL
2025-05-08 04:00:03FORECAST2025220-6544.5122.06433.287123.6373515333300.110.690.8FF12.51282.51127444.5687185130854.9652989315250.38318401963623162122125DRYL
2025-05-08 00:00:02FORECAST2025220-6545.39221.77633.584124.3477265036600.030.690.72FF13.392279.392127444.8451327332755.3154809015990.41552485380957162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025220-6545.12221.75833.44126.386279200.030.690.72FF13.122279.122127445.6355909483656.3222242190560.40555264380764162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025220-6544.621.6533.125126.410977600.030.690.72FF12.6278.6127445.6451427944356.3344381633360.38645115592816162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-07 12:00:01FORECAST2025220-6544.621.95633.278125.394997600.030.690.72FF12.6278.6127445.2517281518255.8323393829930.38645115592816162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-07 08:00:01FORECAST2025220-6544.83422.40633.62125.3392003871900.050.690.74FF12.834279.834127445.2300925545155.8047837890990.39498291477096162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-07 04:00:03FORECAST2025220-6545.1422.6433.89125.0009015978700.050.690.74FF13.14280.14127445.0988501417355.6377575678930.40621563076302162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-07 00:00:01FORECAST2025220-6543.91622.49633.206123.899976927770.0007874020.0607874020.690.750787402FF11.916271.916127444.6709668741855.094722536160.36183873638287162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025220-6543.12422.76632.945127.502901634770.0007874020.1107874020.690.800787402FF11.124270.124127446.0668346202256.8748157371170.33404356992941162122125DRYL
2025-05-06 16:00:01FORECAST2025220-6542.47622.56832.522127.5389587156200.10.690.79FF10.476268.476127446.0807396216956.8926730344450.31195199508552162122125DRYL
2025-05-06 12:00:01FORECAST2025220-6542.20622.7332.468125.9699356613500.090.690.78FF10.206268.206127445.4744842478956.116392119480.30293724071461162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-06 08:00:01FORECAST2025220-6544.3323.21633.773125.6711568421800.10.690.79FF12.33274.33127445.3587648941955.9687511940590.37667481860275162122125DRYL
2025-05-06 04:00:03FORECAST2025220-6541.97223.34232.657125.36088722020.0007874020.1407874020.690.830787402FF9.972270.972127445.2385020769355.8154936449560.29522006387288162122125DRYL
2025-05-06 00:00:02FORECAST2025220-6542.06223.43232.747124.705357422080.0007874020.1407874020.690.830787402FF10.062266.062127444.9841019730855.4919014836960.29817750728379162122125DRYL
2025-05-05 20:00:02FORECAST2025220-6542.83623.7233.278126.5226381104200.080.690.77FF10.836266.836127445.6883188432756.3896618750490.32414816441189162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-05 16:00:01FORECAST2025220-6542.45824.00833.233126.5649863066100.060.690.75FF10.458267.458127445.704690523756.4106080529240.31134741567767162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-05 12:00:02FORECAST2025220-6541.77423.75632.765125.6239548033500.140.690.83FF9.774265.774127445.3404751442655.9454317216260.28876164075451162122125DRYL
2025-05-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025220-6540.31623.97232.144125.710086846300.130.690.82FF8.316265.316127445.3738477629855.9879850813540.24336873220413161122124DRYL
2025-05-05 04:00:03FORECAST2025220-6541.30623.66632.486125.685634665690.0015748040.1115748040.690.801574804FF9.306265.306127445.3643742923555.9759040404210.27376629540399162122125DRYL
2025-05-05 00:00:02FORECAST2025220-6540.78423.70232.243125.486079155930.0015748040.0915748040.640.731574804FF8.784262.784127445.2870388101155.8773245992370.25750765179855162122125DRYL
2025-05-04 20:00:02FORECAST2025220-6540.38824.02632.207125.5345245316200.070.640.71FF8.388263.388127445.3058168710455.901253992070.24551633284307161121122DRYL
2025-05-04 16:00:02FORECAST2025220-6539.57824.11631.847125.7290737817600.060.640.7FF7.578261.578127445.381203436355.9973661878520.22195119121164161121122DRYL
2025-05-04 12:00:02FORECAST2025220-6541.0923.91832.504125.3008534234900.120.640.76FF9.09264.09127445.215221584755.7858472216890.26697751411429162122125DRYL
2025-05-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025220-6540.0123.25231.631125.3617263956900.130.640.77FF8.01263.01127445.2388274754455.8159080707150.23435556988992161122124DRYL
2025-05-04 04:00:03FORECAST2025220-6539.36224.1731.766125.8181529073400.110.640.75FF7.362259.362127445.4157085847956.0413817300530.21589210642262161122124DRYL
2025-05-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025220-6541.2724.49432.882128.4268519758600.110.590.7FF9.27257.27127446.4227440412757.3326676676450.27262893583722162122125DRYL
2025-05-03 20:00:02FORECAST2025220-6541.59424.63833.116128.3719629760300.110.610.72FF9.594258.594127446.4016239039557.3054527362380.28294864847071162122125DRYL
2025-05-03 16:00:02FORECAST2025220-6540.89224.36832.63128.7535402950300.120.610.73FF8.892254.892127446.5483859653257.4946856060660.26082994976883162122125DRYL
2025-05-03 12:00:02FORECAST2025220-6542.02624.9833.503128.567171757200.010.610.62FF10.026259.026127446.4767227701657.4022495019820.29699291224374162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-03 08:00:02FORECAST2025220-6541.64825.03433.341128.669098528100.030.620.65FF9.648256.648127446.5159202735957.4528009400460.28468664243602162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-03 04:00:03FORECAST2025220-6541.57625.30433.44128.489389010700.030.640.67FF9.576256.576127446.44680339457.3636769938760.28237045005401162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025220-6543.89826.8735.384126.955973338730.0007874020.0307874020.640.670787402FF11.898254.898127445.8557617329256.6040521994830.36119818912934162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-02 20:00:02FORECAST2025220-6542.76427.4135.087130.086351335320.0007874020.0307874020.640.670787402FF10.764257.764127447.05989633858.1563907429560.32169324375271162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-02 16:00:02FORECAST2025220-6543.9727.57235.771129.993179165110.0181102460.0481102460.660.708110246FF11.97261.97127447.0241947001158.1100962327910.36376269430988162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-02 12:00:02FORECAST2025220-6547.01228.65237.832128.119461892220.0047244120.0147244120.70.714724412FF15.012264.012127446.3044288385557.1802832629120.47628237483533162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-02 08:00:02FORECAST2025220-6545.44630.52437.985127.958009813060.0051181130.0151181130.690.705118113FF13.446263.446127446.2422485225257.1002700154480.41752606071048162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025220-6545.44630.32637.886128.5181677256500.010.670.68FF13.446259.446127446.4578739054557.3779479210180.41752606071048162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-02 00:00:03FORECAST2025220-6544.20432.37838.291127.434468614340.0141732360.0241732360.670.694173236FF12.204252.204127446.0404407050356.8409265417540.3721390191468162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-01 20:00:03FORECAST2025220-6543.95231.33437.643131.130205083560.015748040.025748040.690.71574804FF11.952253.952127447.4593023330758.6754300814830.36312099061301162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-01 16:00:03FORECAST2025220-6543.10631.94637.526131.246175898650.0326771830.0426771830.670.712677183FF11.106251.106127447.5036105019558.7331375792190.33342162626929162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-01 12:00:03FORECAST2025220-6544.47431.24437.859129.381627238130.0681102730.0681102730.70.768110273FF12.474253.474127446.7896508746657.8063720633210.38187947279205162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-01 08:00:03FORECAST2025220-6540.96431.24436.104129.304852429290.0681102730.0681102730.710.778110273FF8.964253.964127446.760180272157.7682591813690.26305698516686162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-01 04:00:05FORECAST2025220-6542.02630.72236.374128.669484015230.0685039740.0685039740.740.808503974FF10.026257.026127446.5160684993257.4529921383160.29699291224374162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-01 00:00:03FORECAST2025220-6547.42635.70841.567127.231106528220.0728346850.0728346850.720.792834685FF15.426269.426127445.9619789514656.7402360515080.49195617618622162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-30 20:00:03FORECAST2025220-6547.42635.70841.567129.973306341180.0728346850.0728346850.710.782834685FF15.426260.426127447.0165787539858.1002227299780.49195617618622162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-30 16:00:02FORECAST2025220-6548.39836.80642.602129.857132702530.0724409840.0724409840.720.792440984FF16.398260.398127446.9720493472258.0425087264030.52876159341663163121123DRYL
2025-04-30 12:00:03FORECAST2025220-6548.27235.99642.134129.580814607770.007874020.007874020.810.81787402FF16.272257.272127446.8660836913157.9052711453060.52399768459845163121123DRYL
2025-04-30 08:00:02FORECAST2025220-6548.27235.99642.134129.722600162220.007874020.007874020.820.82787402FF16.272258.272127446.9204665441457.9756849858170.52399768459845163121123DRYL
2025-04-30 04:00:05FORECAST2025220-6547.1235.65441.387129.891308727550.2586615570.2586615570.841.098661557FF15.12255.12127446.9851503968358.0594861668260.4803686404038162122125DRYL
2025-04-30 00:00:03FORECAST2025220-6535.11430.75832.936133.796275192590.2468505270.3068505270.640.946850527FF3.114238.114127448.474617723560.0042333698260.11703751950978161122124DRYL
2025-04-29 20:00:02FORECAST2025220-6535.11430.75832.936133.734151191380.2468505270.3068505270.620.926850527FF3.114238.114127448.4510372904359.9732188229270.11703751950978161122124DRYL
2025-04-29 16:00:03FORECAST2025220-6535.5129.96632.738132.998548776760.1622048120.2222048120.60.822204812FF3.51237.51127448.171541317159.6061645982180.12460582045848161122124DRYL
2025-04-29 12:00:03FORECAST2025220-6544.90633.00838.957133.082065010770.0968504460.1468504460.780.926850446FF12.906241.906127448.2033000312359.6478207127980.39761844198525162122125DRYL
2025-04-29 08:00:03FORECAST2025220-6544.90633.00838.957133.13252377920.0968504460.1468504460.750.896850446FF12.906239.906127448.2224847200459.6729906053620.39761844198525162122125DRYL
2025-04-29 04:00:04FORECAST2025220-6558.04635.45646.751131.476143681230.0555118410.0555118410.80.855511841FF26.046256.046127447.5914341132458.8475957019610.83859165947656164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-29 00:00:03FORECAST2025220-6542.8937.97640.433132.150252220150.0051181130.0351181130.870.905118113FF10.89245.89127447.8485775961459.1833024857640.32599438949536162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-28 20:00:03FORECAST2025220-6542.8937.97640.433132.386353551410.0051181130.0351181130.80.835118113FF10.89249.89127447.9385360646159.3009494047520.32599438949536162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-28 16:00:03FORECAST2025220-6539.72236.44638.084132.516021808020.0996063530.1696063530.750.919606353FF7.722242.722127447.987918845559.3655768234580.22604385464101161122124DRYL
2025-04-28 12:00:04FORECAST2025220-6546.00440.65843.331134.00610828150.1133858880.1833858880.851.033385888FF14.004239.004127448.5542366535160.1090076071140.43832114345999162122125DRYL
2025-04-28 08:00:03FORECAST2025220-6546.00440.65843.331135.158004463150.1133858880.1833858880.841.023385888FF14.004230.004127448.990556315660.6846676144150.43832114345999162122125DRYL
2025-04-28 04:00:05FORECAST2025220-6548.21846.6747.444136.315055939090.0858268180.1858268180.861.045826818FF16.218231.218127449.4275454297361.2637409958190.5219549188998163122126DRYL