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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 7, 2025

[ Tuesday, May 6, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, May 8, 2025 ]

DAY 219 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/08/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.65°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.39°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.52°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.631
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 272

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.11 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.11 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.19 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 124 in
SWE DAY: 126
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.24 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 55.21 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -66

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-08 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025219-6650.6499832.3900641.52002124.284528333330.110000000000010.110000000000011.191.3FF18.64998271.64998126444.23775338111 55.211879646830.6307983622630316 3122126DRYL
2025-05-08 00:00:02FORECAST2025219-6646.79629.19237.994124.969811303660.0279527710.0279527711.191.217952771FF14.796267.796126444.5049881235455.5497044893320.48936963740219162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-07 12:00:01FORECAST2025219-6647.08428.50837.796125.9894320.031496080.031496081.191.22149608FF15.084268.084126444.9017421489556.0529177891570.50011915137434163121123DRYL
2025-05-07 08:00:01FORECAST2025219-6647.67828.6738.174125.971026787190.0456693160.0456693161.191.235669316FF15.678268.678126444.894589429456.0438282424890.52228102320179163121123DRYL
2025-05-07 04:00:03FORECAST2025219-6648.2928.92238.606125.634597597870.0515748310.0515748311.191.241574831FF16.29269.29126444.763785814555.8777192569110.54504188973523163121123DRYL
2025-05-07 00:00:01FORECAST2025219-6646.54428.92237.733124.466844289630.0610236550.0610236551.191.251023655FF14.544261.544126444.3088952093455.3017260765210.47996987628352162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025219-6645.57228.9437.256128.020481016870.1110236820.1110236821.191.301023682FF13.572260.572126445.6890069880557.0573210585420.44386413398004162122125DRYL
2025-05-06 16:00:01FORECAST2025219-6645.06828.65236.86128.017379515620.1027559610.1027559611.191.292755961FF13.068260.068126445.6878078935657.0557852485960.42530557289276162122125DRYL
2025-05-06 12:00:01FORECAST2025219-6645.3229.28237.301126.413030861350.0929134360.0929134361.191.282913436FF13.32260.32126445.0662707365956.2621762179710.43456683133835162122125DRYL
2025-05-06 08:00:01FORECAST2025219-6647.82229.87638.849126.226624842180.0956693430.0956693431.191.285669343FF15.822263.822126444.9938912203856.1700769641390.52764584138421163122126DRYL
2025-05-06 04:00:03FORECAST2025219-6646.8529.46238.156125.821808063250.1393701540.1393701541.191.329370154FF14.85262.85126444.83658700755.9701436699070.49138481863127162122125DRYL
2025-05-06 00:00:01FORECAST2025219-6645.91429.44437.679125.174353733180.1362205460.1362205461.191.326220546FF13.914257.914126444.5846619275255.6505977364620.4565305137223162122125DRYL
2025-05-05 20:00:02FORECAST2025219-6647.26430.03838.651127.035006910420.0834646120.0834646121.191.273464612FF15.264258.264126445.3075297680956.5696451213510.50683804917546163121123DRYL
2025-05-05 16:00:01FORECAST2025219-6648.2929.8439.065127.020873506610.062992160.062992161.191.25299216FF16.29259.29126445.3020517762256.5626555909010.54504188973523163121123DRYL
2025-05-05 12:00:02FORECAST2025219-6648.36229.89439.128125.998858803350.141732360.141732361.191.33173236FF16.362258.362126444.905405507756.0575733694130.54771139705707163122126DRYL
2025-05-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025219-6647.80429.64238.723126.05389644630.1318898350.1318898351.191.321889835FF15.804258.804126444.9267919859356.0847557631790.52697549326834163122126DRYL
2025-05-05 04:00:03FORECAST2025219-6647.3929.8438.615126.064796561810.1110236820.1110236821.191.301023682FF15.39258.39126444.9310271884256.0901394265440.51154023700295163122126DRYL
2025-05-05 00:00:02FORECAST2025219-6647.2130.03838.624125.862229857960.0854331170.0854331171.141.225433117FF15.21256.21126444.8523014288355.9901026152790.5048224967875163121123DRYL
2025-05-04 20:00:01FORECAST2025219-6648.81230.86639.839125.891519731620.0700787780.0700787781.141.210078778FF16.812256.812126444.863687184656.0045656530790.56434228042939163121123DRYL
2025-05-04 16:00:02FORECAST2025219-6647.01230.4738.741126.026143381760.0622047580.0622047581.141.202204758FF15.012256.012126444.9160080985456.0710486294680.49743147605573162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-04 12:00:02FORECAST2025219-6646.68831.26238.975125.668967823490.1244095160.1244095161.141.264409516FF14.688256.688126444.7771540795955.894685864650.485340140341162122125DRYL
2025-05-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025219-6644.9629.94837.454125.680050395690.1291339280.1291339281.141.269133928FF12.96256.96126444.7814643862155.9001568591290.42134873401384162122125DRYL
2025-05-04 04:00:03FORECAST2025219-6644.631.44238.021126.091901707340.1066929710.1066929711.141.246692971FF12.6253.6126444.9415582914356.1035272335940.40821867880948162122125DRYL
2025-05-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025219-6644.40229.19236.797128.819172775860.114173290.114173291.091.20417329FF12.402250.402126445.9974809362457.4530265543230.40103983312319162122125DRYL
2025-05-03 20:00:01FORECAST2025219-6644.27630.0237.148128.790162976030.114173290.114173291.111.22417329FF12.276251.276126445.9862876032157.4386466654920.39648864470353162122125DRYL
2025-05-03 16:00:02FORECAST2025219-6643.35828.0435.699129.132380295030.11811030.11811031.111.2281103FF11.358248.358126446.1182784881257.6083151942910.36379073721892162122125DRYL
2025-05-03 12:00:02FORECAST2025219-6643.55629.82236.689128.96716775720.0133858340.0133858341.111.123385834FF11.556250.556126446.054571463857.5263947468360.37076897170995162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-03 08:00:02FORECAST2025219-6643.82630.07436.95129.09822092810.0338582860.0338582861.121.153858286FF11.826248.826126446.1051086072957.5913758681360.3803532247127162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-03 04:00:03FORECAST2025219-6643.80829.78636.797128.91624821070.0342519870.0342519871.141.174251987FF11.808248.808126446.0349311668257.5011498969450.37971191079201162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025219-6648.75833.47641.117127.463505650490.0271653690.0271653691.141.167165369FF16.758244.758126445.4735190517756.7816164127990.56235197767443163121123DRYL
2025-05-02 20:00:02FORECAST2025219-6649.15434.68241.918130.622616447080.0271653690.0271653691.141.167165369FF17.154249.154126446.691716660358.3480407754060.57690768768837163121123DRYL
2025-05-02 16:00:02FORECAST2025219-6649.26234.80842.035130.50099220650.0287401730.0287401731.161.188740173FF17.262252.262126446.6449973389958.2876153168060.58086014293149163121123DRYL
2025-05-02 12:00:02FORECAST2025219-6647.55234.80841.18128.941918451170.0066929170.0066929171.21.206692917FF15.552250.552126446.0448328126157.5138764580880.51758345943692163121123DRYL
2025-05-02 08:00:02FORECAST2025219-6647.31835.49241.405128.749549758690.0051181130.0051181131.191.195118113FF15.318252.318126445.9706157451557.4185159827920.50885342700206163121123DRYL
2025-05-02 04:00:03FORECAST2025219-6647.42636.06841.747129.319734125650.0051181130.0051181131.171.175118113FF15.426248.426126446.1904909973957.7012356651770.51288345325531163121123DRYL
2025-05-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025219-6648.23638.2143.223128.206159148840.0055118140.0055118141.171.175511814FF16.236242.236126445.7607761849757.1492770138790.54303841688733163121123DRYL
2025-05-01 20:00:03FORECAST2025219-6651.04437.4944.267131.788933685910.0059055150.0059055151.191.195905515FF19.044244.044126447.1390001485358.9279720389590.64462075180255163121123DRYL
2025-05-01 16:00:02FORECAST2025219-6651.06237.74244.402131.882845053680.0098425250.0098425251.171.179842525FF19.062242.062126447.1749576159258.9747056471470.64524784107857163121123DRYL
2025-05-01 12:00:03FORECAST2025219-6651.09838.55244.825130.115789638130.0007874020.0007874021.21.200787402FF19.098243.098126446.4969348261758.0963012459130.64650083869866163121123DRYL
2025-05-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025219-6652.6141.16246.886129.821422137330.0007874020.0007874021.211.210787402FF20.61246.61126446.3836894145757.9501653787050.69755240501075163121123DRYL
2025-05-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025219-6653.5141.84647.678129.015088464470.0007874020.0007874021.241.240787402FF21.51248.51126446.0730527514657.5501543623430.72627792554746164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-01 00:00:03FORECAST2025219-6656.67843.03449.856128.63704572822001.221.22FF24.678255.678126445.9271941644657.3627568671890.8154360138464164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-30 20:00:03FORECAST2025219-6653.81641.86447.84131.28261674118001.211.21FF21.816246.816126446.9449899863358.6761078247670.7357281020774164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-30 16:00:02FORECAST2025219-6654.73442.38648.56131.30902470253001.221.22FF22.734245.734126446.9551151384958.6892402546410.76304852054647164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-30 12:00:02FORECAST2025219-6649.96439.61444.789130.80422180777001.311.31FF17.964242.964126446.7614495724358.4382837450350.60633556708384163121123DRYL
2025-04-30 08:00:02FORECAST2025219-6651.13439.61445.374130.94600736222001.321.32FF19.134244.134126446.8158701009258.508754215790.64775225157385163121123DRYL
2025-04-30 04:00:05FORECAST2025219-6650.34238.4844.411131.06561432755001.341.34FF18.342242.342126446.8617627437258.5682114534990.61987425992733163121123DRYL
2025-04-30 00:00:03FORECAST2025219-6644.94235.38440.163132.643054313480.0539370370.0639370371.141.203937037FF12.942236.942126447.4657165429759.3532193428310.42069002096834162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-29 20:00:02FORECAST2025219-6644.94235.38440.163132.580930312260.0539370370.0639370371.121.183937037FF12.942236.942126447.4419768978259.3222735578710.42069002096834162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-29 16:00:03FORECAST2025219-6645.44635.31240.379132.464013835160.0543307380.0643307381.11.164330738FF13.446236.446126447.3972890668159.2640406887580.43921129120542162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-29 12:00:03FORECAST2025219-6645.53635.85240.694133.238387223110.0452756150.0452756151.281.325275615FF13.536230.536126447.6930231776859.649896379230.44253393175324162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-29 08:00:03FORECAST2025219-6645.53635.85240.694133.288845991540.0452756150.0452756151.251.295275615FF13.536228.536126447.7122732620759.6750522393480.44253393175324162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-29 04:00:04FORECAST2025219-6647.6636.98642.323132.848134881230.0003937010.0003937011.31.300393701FF15.66231.66126447.5440580535559.4553933895920.52161011689661163121123DRYL
2025-04-29 00:00:03FORECAST2025219-6648.3836.7742.575132.510789820150.027559070.027559071.371.39755907FF16.38237.38126447.4151693824759.2873374723850.54837844182732163121123DRYL
2025-04-28 20:00:03FORECAST2025219-6648.3836.7742.575132.746891151410.027559070.027559071.31.32755907FF16.38241.38126447.5053876867959.4049489889290.54837844182732163121123DRYL
2025-04-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025219-6645.78838.06641.927132.710052269140.0744094890.0744094891.251.324409489FF13.788236.788126447.4913144900559.386595735960.45185811519801162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-28 12:00:04FORECAST2025219-6648.97434.21441.594134.47734588150.047244120.067244121.351.41724412FF16.974226.974126448.1649747785560.2680363252680.57030322203058163121123DRYL
2025-04-28 08:00:03FORECAST2025219-6648.97434.21441.594135.629242063140.047244120.067244121.341.40724412FF16.974217.974126448.6024316848960.8436077971060.57030322203058163121123DRYL
2025-04-28 04:00:05FORECAST2025219-6651.65633.38642.521136.568337539090.0909449310.1009449311.361.460944931FF19.656216.656126448.9581271598661.3134650508840.66571224862428163122126DRYL
2025-04-28 00:00:03FORECAST2025219-6642.9835.61839.299139.688877063170.0003937010.2903937011.351.640393701FF10.98210.98126450.1339995836962.87871292980.35059499565938162122125DRYL
2025-04-27 20:00:02FORECAST2025219-6642.9835.61839.299139.471769553530.0003937010.2903937011.371.660393701FF10.98216.98126450.0524910964662.7696173251970.35059499565938162122125DRYL
2025-04-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025219-6637.70634.84436.275138.591123832420.1421260610.4321260611.481.912126061FF5.706215.706126449.7214097051662.3273955825390.19016476697286161122124DRYL
2025-04-27 12:00:03FORECAST2025219-6642.7136.96839.839137.8283053938400.031.411.44FF10.71224.71126449.4340266476561.9447302791770.34127749731149162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-27 08:00:04FORECAST2025219-6642.7136.96839.839138.188281934700.031.41.43FF10.71221.71126449.5697130459262.1252662556920.34127749731149162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-27 04:00:05FORECAST2025219-6642.27839.90241.09138.1489302087500.041.311.35FF10.278222.278126449.5548861908262.1055265973760.32657060649767162121122.5DRYL