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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 4, 2025

[ Saturday, May 3, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, May 5, 2025 ]

DAY 216 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/05/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.07°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.32°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.69°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.346
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 247

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.14 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.05 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 130 in
SWE DAY: 123
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.71 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 57.80 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -69

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-05 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025216-6941.0700226.3199233.69497129.971852916670.0499999999999550.139999999999951.051.19FF9.07002247.07002123444.70506650092 57.7991414945540.3455664804820616 2122125DRYL
2025-05-05 00:00:02FORECAST2025216-6838.67821.90230.29129.772007200.091.051.14FF6.678244.678124445.2086148618457.7756155733530.26754490888149162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-04 12:00:01FORECAST2025216-6837.79621.84829.822129.785192800.091.051.14FF5.796243.796124445.2137286281357.7821496072090.24119425121671161121122DRYL
2025-05-04 08:00:01FORECAST2025216-6838.96622.65830.812129.749473600.091.051.14FF6.966244.966124445.1998752677857.7644494627810.27645272783079162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-04 04:00:03FORECAST2025216-6839.022331.01130.056791100.091.051.14FF7.02245.02124445.3190244069157.9167633301460.27813897319417162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-04 00:00:02FORECAST2025216-6938.82223.01830.92132.8074231758600.041.051.09FF6.822241.822123445.804465912759.2061423581560.27198070339394162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-03 20:00:01FORECAST2025216-6938.73223.43231.082132.773296576030.0015748040.0615748041.051.111574804FF6.732242.732123445.7912814625859.189178024640.26920405422722162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-03 16:00:01FORECAST2025216-6938.35423.41430.884132.802158742170.0035433090.0635433091.051.113543309FF6.354242.354123445.802432129159.2035253592560.25769938142866162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-03 12:00:01FORECAST2025216-6938.17423.41430.794132.903186774030.0027559070.0627559071.051.112755907FF6.174242.174123445.8414570613259.2537504394270.25231195294687162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-03 08:00:01FORECAST2025216-6938.06623.30630.686132.990156744930.0027559070.0727559071.051.122755907FF6.066241.066123445.875043650259.2969919436940.24910818833246162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-03 04:00:02FORECAST2025216-6938.19223.41430.803132.891965547750.0059055150.0859055151.051.135905515FF6.192241.192123445.8371230399259.2481715949320.25284801468701162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-03 00:00:02FORECAST2025216-6937.83222.96430.398131.669613650490.0074803190.0874803191.051.137480319FF5.832231.832123445.3642685273858.6409411707320.2422414978346161121122DRYL
2025-05-02 20:00:01FORECAST2025216-6938.71423.01830.866134.964811647080.0074803190.0874803191.051.137480319FF6.714235.714123446.6356345731560.2800942950390.26865043349864162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-02 16:00:02FORECAST2025216-6939.57823.05431.316134.93007460650.0137795350.1137795351.051.163779535FF7.578237.578123446.6222876142960.262778588720.29585075902164162122125DRYL
2025-05-02 12:00:02FORECAST2025216-6939.3823.07231.226133.452082451170.0098425250.1498425251.051.199842525FF7.38237.38123446.0533086091159.5267429181190.28950688691328162122125DRYL
2025-05-02 08:00:02FORECAST2025216-6939.70423.93631.82133.372086558690.0062992160.1362992161.051.186299216FF7.704237.704123446.0224518108759.4869450500370.29992068849375162122125DRYL
2025-05-02 04:00:03FORECAST2025216-6939.25423.88231.568133.753244525650.0059055150.1159055151.051.165905515FF7.254237.254123446.1694195738559.6766074761290.28550339414642162122125DRYL
2025-05-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025216-6939.18224.22431.703132.748795148840.0086614220.1186614221.051.168661422FF7.182230.182123445.7818148910559.1769988260490.28322756694132162122125DRYL
2025-05-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025216-6938.58823.46831.028136.444237685910.0082677210.1382677211.051.188267721FF6.588227.588123447.2029804158961.0182697537150.2647911567215162122125DRYL
2025-05-01 16:00:02FORECAST2025216-6937.56223.28830.425136.364768253680.0031496080.1231496081.051.173149608FF5.562226.562123447.1725587969360.9785823497490.23444741588365161122124DRYL
2025-05-01 12:00:02FORECAST2025216-6938.73223.82831.28134.808682438130.0090551230.1490551231.051.199055123FF6.732227.732123446.5756360414760.2022731037220.26920405422722162122125DRYL
2025-05-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025216-6938.323.82831.064134.680906137330.0086614220.1586614221.051.208661422FF6.3230.3123446.5265154754960.1385957185820.25607691488137162122125DRYL
2025-05-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025216-6939.23623.48631.361134.308516464470.0098425250.1898425251.051.239842525FF7.236229.236123446.3832681366659.9530745179940.28493362279119162122125DRYL
2025-05-01 00:00:02FORECAST2025216-6941.03624.42232.729134.5159537282200.171.051.22FF9.036231.036123446.4630798581260.0564069915520.34439835338964162122125DRYL
2025-04-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025216-6939.1123.5431.325136.356219141180.0023622060.1623622061.051.212362206FF7.11230.11123447.1692857533360.9743131213870.28096046836718162122125DRYL
2025-04-30 16:00:02FORECAST2025216-6938.4822.94630.713136.377018302530.0023622060.1723622061.051.222362206FF6.48228.48123447.17724862760.9846998204780.26150575744317162122125DRYL
2025-04-30 12:00:02FORECAST2025216-6937.99423.59430.794135.860309007770.0137795350.2637795351.051.313779535FF5.994226.994123446.9793039497360.726746354690.24698441076838161122124DRYL
2025-04-30 08:00:02FORECAST2025216-6938.87623.73831.307136.036731362220.0137795350.2737795351.051.323779535FF6.876226.876123447.0469182918860.8148015299790.27365349408826162122125DRYL
2025-04-30 04:00:04FORECAST2025216-6938.53423.12630.83136.036487127550.0165354420.2865354421.051.336535442FF6.534225.534123447.0468247092360.814679614970.26314584095127162122125DRYL
2025-04-30 00:00:03FORECAST2025216-6940.78423.7232.252136.9759999134800.180.961.14FF8.784226.784123447.406385873961.2839370727550.33579233897014162122125DRYL
2025-04-29 20:00:02FORECAST2025216-6942.51224.00833.26136.4695999122600.160.961.12FF10.512227.512123447.2126880134961.0309366088890.39630141865978162122125DRYL
2025-04-29 16:00:02FORECAST2025216-6942.69224.58433.638136.3593746351600.140.961.1FF10.692226.692123447.1704938483460.9758888964550.40278028322462162122125DRYL
2025-04-29 12:00:02FORECAST2025216-6942.65626.61834.637136.661564190980.0011811030.3211811030.961.281181103FF10.656227.656123447.2861436200961.1268240280730.40148231133296162122125DRYL
2025-04-29 08:00:03FORECAST2025216-6941.39627.93234.664136.734359759410.0011811030.2611811030.991.251181103FF9.396227.396123447.3139896597161.1631919875470.35683264650582162122125DRYL
2025-04-29 04:00:04FORECAST2025216-6941.28828.11234.7136.496511681230.0011811030.2811811031.021.301181103FF9.288229.288123447.2229880272561.0443778093770.35308564361653162122125DRYL
2025-04-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025216-6941.03627.51834.277136.3125722201500.341.031.37FF9.036233.036123447.1525743407960.9525175832530.34439835338964162122125DRYL
2025-04-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025216-6945.9529.60637.778136.6607511514100.340.961.3FF13.95237.95123447.2858325840161.1264178603160.52291450658078163122126DRYL
2025-04-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025216-6944.4229.31836.869136.6769498691400.310.941.25FF12.42234.42123447.2920294377461.1345102843260.46608403309122162122125DRYL
2025-04-28 12:00:03FORECAST2025216-6941.6328.07634.853137.281459082160.0555118410.3955118410.951.345511841FF9.63228.63123447.5231035112361.4366246229990.36499824986354162122125DRYL
2025-04-28 08:00:03FORECAST2025216-6934.80824.00829.408138.399800863810.0555118410.3955118410.941.335511841FF2.808218.808123447.9496562206361.9961432179480.16328450258855161122124DRYL
2025-04-28 04:00:04FORECAST2025216-6934.23223.37828.805139.027770512560.0771653960.3971653960.961.357165396FF2.232220.232123448.188642805462.3106677782850.15038828570129161122124DRYL
2025-04-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025216-6934.6123.50429.057140.773055910980.0244094620.4144094620.941.354409462FF2.61222.61123448.8508481106963.1861055367760.15877288261628161122124DRYL
2025-04-27 20:00:02FORECAST2025216-6938.7527.44633.098140.555850001330.0244094620.4144094620.961.374409462FF6.75228.75123448.768594557263.0770512618910.26975824595221162122125DRYL
2025-04-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025216-6939.61428.02233.818140.278354329690.0224409570.5224409570.961.482440957FF7.614231.614123448.6634438728362.9377695543710.29701100838341162123127.5DRYL
2025-04-27 12:00:03FORECAST2025216-6939.25428.34633.8140.222672403890.0248031630.3748031631.041.414803163FF7.254226.254123448.642335541962.9098272432090.28550339414642162122125DRYL
2025-04-27 08:00:03FORECAST2025216-6937.81425.26831.541140.582648944750.0248031630.3748031631.031.404803163FF5.814222.814123448.7787454845263.0905048303140.24171756716935161122124DRYL
2025-04-27 04:00:04FORECAST2025216-6939.90225.98832.945140.460265541830.0094488240.2994488241.011.309448824FF7.902225.902123448.7323833638763.0290697245080.30636690107203162122125DRYL
2025-04-27 00:00:03FORECAST2025216-6940.7326.16833.449139.913748991680.0059055150.4159055150.881.295905515FF8.73222.73123448.5251722459362.7548383660680.3339591472938162122125DRYL
2025-04-26 20:00:02FORECAST2025216-6940.7327.73434.232141.382406560140.0059055150.4159055150.851.265905515FF8.73221.73123449.081360598363.4922035026910.3339591472938162122125DRYL
2025-04-26 16:00:03FORECAST2025216-6937.05825.41231.235142.909614040560.0503937280.7203937280.861.580393728FF5.058218.058123449.6575257984664.2603834622910.22027622745073161123126DRYL
2025-04-26 12:00:02FORECAST2025216-6943.10628.63435.87139.547431730540.062992160.562992160.811.37299216FF11.106228.106123448.386122379262.5711318016350.41778054303261162123127.5DRYL
2025-04-26 08:00:03FORECAST2025216-6943.10628.63435.87139.850610379420.062992160.562992160.781.34299216FF11.106227.106123448.5012147738362.7231686420330.41778054303261162123127.5DRYL
2025-04-26 04:00:05FORECAST2025216-6943.93428.90436.419139.977399743010.0795276020.4895276020.771.259527602FF11.934225.934123448.5493201566962.7867674920290.4481211121642162122125DRYL
2025-04-26 00:00:03FORECAST2025216-6942.78229.33636.059141.477732264710.1937008920.8737008920.821.693700892FF10.782210.782123449.1173892901663.5401097574170.40602987349094162123127.5DRYL
2025-04-25 20:00:03FORECAST2025216-6942.78229.33636.059143.307158423510.1937008920.8737008920.821.693700892FF10.782212.782123449.8071399741964.4605830683080.40602987349094162123127.5DRYL
2025-04-25 16:00:02FORECAST2025216-6944.67230.7437.706140.886969567550.1472441740.6172441740.841.457244174FF12.672219.672123448.8939678563563.2433107884320.47542776949479162123127.5DRYL
2025-04-25 12:00:03FORECAST2025216-6961.3431.87446.607141.836695728930.5106301970.7506301971.111.860630197FF29.34236.34123449.2529825702663.7205585941310.932240804966581651231212DRYL
2025-04-25 08:00:03FORECAST2025216-6961.3431.87446.607141.829461045370.5106301970.7506301971.121.870630197FF29.34236.34123449.2502509932663.7169209728710.932240804966581651231212DRYL
2025-04-25 04:00:04FORECAST2025216-6966.21832.57649.397141.130748910550.5102364960.7502364961.131.880236496FF34.218245.218123448.9862037624463.3657591874990.974356844438981651231212DRYL
2025-04-25 00:00:03FORECAST2025216-6944.49232.57638.534140.64996923100.091.191.28FF12.492216.492123448.8042420738563.1243028384280.46875199179279162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-24 20:00:03FORECAST2025216-6944.40232.97238.687142.7226153450300.091.21.29FF12.402215.402123449.5870973546364.1662463598340.46541727677304162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-24 16:00:03FORECAST2025216-6947.5733.94440.757142.3460008741900.091.181.27FF15.57220.57123449.4451532387463.9767201758230.58255903615219163121123DRYL
2025-04-24 12:00:03FORECAST2025216-6949.08243.86246.472139.8775599752600.281.21.48FF17.082241.082123448.5114410654962.7366859972270.63658861253047163122126DRYL
2025-04-24 08:00:03FORECAST2025216-6949.08243.86246.472140.1406826799400.281.191.47FF17.082235.082123448.611248814562.8686866667650.63658861253047163122126DRYL
2025-04-24 04:00:04FORECAST2025216-6946.45444.81645.635140.3910085158700.281.191.47FF14.454226.454123448.7061405557562.9943075998860.54158977418302163122126DRYL