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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 2, 2025

[ Thursday, May 1, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, May 3, 2025 ]

DAY 214 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/03/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.52°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.53°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.02°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.915
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 27
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 269

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.05 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.05 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 133 in
SWE DAY: 121
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.67 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 59.09 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -71

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-03 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025214-7158.5199437.5299648.02495132.87703083333001.051.05FF26.51994268.51994121444.67122995597 59.0865927335560.9147622381649716 5121124DRYL
2025-05-03 00:00:02FORECAST2025214-7050.30635.0642.683131.61019840.0023622060.0023622061.051.052362206FF18.306260.306122444.7604207680858.5350072177550.70569107538509164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-02 12:00:01FORECAST2025214-7051.6236.84244.231133.47814560.0062992160.0062992161.051.056299216FF19.62261.62122445.4852837075859.4625495613770.74968582160937164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-02 08:00:01FORECAST2025214-7051.92636.55444.24133.4925120.0051181130.0051181131.051.055118113FF19.926261.926122445.4908453190959.4696920146480.7594073213246164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-02 04:00:03FORECAST2025214-7051.9836.55444.267133.860517416670.0074803190.0074803191.051.057480319FF19.98261.98122445.6332407397759.6526961834920.76110132134058164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025214-7153.38436.69845.041132.84667360.023622060.023622061.051.07362206FF21.384255.384121444.6594144325759.0715240922910.80278869363289164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025214-7151.96236.35644.159136.44124560.0200787510.0200787511.051.070078751FF19.962252.962121446.0521658670560.8599131134790.76053737934871164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-01 16:00:01FORECAST2025214-7151.90836.53644.222136.3823040.0267716680.0267716681.051.076771668FF19.908252.908121446.0294307733260.8305214206740.75884120715674164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-01 12:00:02FORECAST2025214-7151.837.07644.438134.82207360.0381889970.0381889971.051.088188997FF19.8252.8121445.42637579360.0533076205460.75542938963565164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-01 08:00:01FORECAST2025214-7152.6137.32844.969134.73134880.0429134090.0429134091.051.092913409FF20.61254.61121445.3912355710760.0081619121890.780375768395164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025214-7152.12437.2244.672134.379669166670.0519685320.0519685321.051.101968532FF20.124254.124121445.2549437727659.8332120390060.76558664810526164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-01 00:00:02FORECAST2025214-7152.93437.02244.978134.8234120.0700787780.0700787781.051.120078778FF20.934253.934121445.426894131760.0539736633980.78993060261588164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025214-7153.00636.64444.825136.50719360.0622047580.0622047581.051.112204758FF21.006255.006121446.0775994516860.8928012289740.79202031178112164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-30 16:00:02FORECAST2025214-7151.8936.78844.339136.45592720.0535433360.0535433361.051.103543336FF19.89253.89121446.0578283591460.8672345535650.75827437080454164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-30 12:00:02FORECAST2025214-7151.36836.4143.889135.6910640.0712598810.0712598811.051.121259881FF19.368253.368121445.7625498626860.485994682220.74152641089081164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-30 08:00:01FORECAST2025214-7151.78234.95243.367135.83974640.0775590970.0775590971.051.127559097FF19.782253.782121445.8199942244660.56007495550.75485824027518164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-30 04:00:04FORECAST2025214-7151.38634.50242.944135.659867533330.082677210.082677211.051.13267721FF19.386253.386121445.7504941617860.4704529909050.74211375444928164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-30 00:00:02FORECAST2025214-7152.1635.5143.835137.064821161280.0649606650.0649606650.961.024960665FF20.16251.16121446.2924845385561.17099957890.76670066665922164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-29 20:00:01FORECAST2025214-7151.835.31243.556136.68693120.0720472830.0720472830.961.032047283FF19.8250.8121446.1468956449760.9824500301180.75542938963565164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-29 16:00:02FORECAST2025214-7152.26834.21443.241136.6743360.0685039740.0685039740.961.028503974FF20.268251.268121446.1420407111360.9761671758790.77002505949789164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-29 12:00:02FORECAST2025214-7152.32235.63643.979136.905387511750.1681103270.1681103270.961.128110327FF20.322250.322121446.2310769032361.0914385032230.77167727894497164122127DRYL
2025-04-29 08:00:02FORECAST2025214-7150.84636.73443.79136.9315771080.1110236820.1110236820.991.101023682FF18.846249.846121446.2411658232261.1045066066850.72419750917726164122127DRYL
2025-04-29 04:00:04FORECAST2025214-7151.67437.8544.762136.725912724650.0940945390.0940945391.021.114094539FF19.674250.674121446.1619204422761.001895795450.75141635490959164122127DRYL
2025-04-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025214-7152.44837.72445.086136.886553628610.102362260.102362261.031.13236226FF20.448255.448121446.2238211821561.0820410286130.77550643944728164122127DRYL
2025-04-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025214-7151.56636.44644.006137.563185849650.102362260.102362260.961.06236226FF19.566253.566121446.4842749381361.419799292260.747948931498164122127DRYL
2025-04-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025214-7151.36837.25644.312137.584519562670.0885827250.0885827250.941.028582725FF19.368253.368121446.4924795752961.4304532907130.74152641089081164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-28 12:00:03FORECAST2025214-7150.01836.7743.394137.241746238070.1169291970.1169291970.951.066929197FF18.018251.018121446.3606000873361.2593082078580.69559229193009163122126DRYL
2025-04-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025214-7149.1935.00642.098137.473913877580.1169291970.1169291970.941.056929197FF17.19250.19121446.4499374070961.3752202457530.66573875949821163122126DRYL
2025-04-28 04:00:04FORECAST2025214-7149.5535.56442.557137.837316643120.1094488780.1094488780.961.069448878FF17.55250.55121446.589667832461.5567214545630.67886208508284163122126DRYL
2025-04-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025214-7148.68635.47442.08139.504603936350.1429134630.1429134630.941.082913463FF16.686253.686121447.2290985083162.3905182562130.64702386405343163122126DRYL
2025-04-27 20:00:02FORECAST2025214-7150.19836.7743.484139.692296825880.1429134630.1429134630.961.102913463FF18.198254.198121447.3009122251762.4844918010460.70192215314445164122127DRYL
2025-04-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025214-7151.02637.09444.06139.57578701750.2251969720.2251969720.961.185196972FF19.026256.026121447.2563381019962.4261553891510.73023686865485164122127DRYL
2025-04-27 12:00:02FORECAST2025214-7149.67634.55642.116139.44641335160.1165354960.1165354961.041.156535496FF17.676252.676121447.2068270876862.3613880637270.68340407817184163122126DRYL
2025-04-27 08:00:03FORECAST2025214-7149.1934.01641.603139.550672772260.1165354960.1165354961.031.146535496FF17.19252.19121447.2467282087462.4135818167210.66573875949821163122126DRYL
2025-04-27 04:00:04FORECAST2025214-7148.7434.50241.621139.992422226860.1208662070.1208662071.011.130866207FF16.74251.74121447.4156729509762.6348037986660.64904710654702163122126DRYL
2025-04-27 00:00:02FORECAST2025214-7147.46235.81641.639139.158900909270.1940945930.1940945930.881.074094593FF15.462247.462121447.0967384427662.2174907218140.60015051968693163122126DRYL
2025-04-26 20:00:02FORECAST2025214-7147.15635.81641.486140.789923999910.1940945930.1940945930.851.044094593FF15.156246.156121447.7201936747663.0344920406960.58817257310616163122126DRYL
2025-04-26 16:00:03FORECAST2025214-7147.58834.8841.234141.014786073640.3007875640.3007875640.861.160787564FF15.588246.588121447.8059443306163.1472594422860.60505604816958163122126DRYL
2025-04-26 12:00:02FORECAST2025214-7147.76837.83242.8139.759975130820.3401576640.3401576640.811.150157664FF15.768247.768121447.3267984192562.5183822224260.61203498080686163122126DRYL
2025-04-26 08:00:02FORECAST2025214-7145.80633.65639.731139.756751735770.3401576640.3401576640.781.120157664FF13.806248.806121447.3255656076562.516768017690.534492257477163122126DRYL
2025-04-26 04:00:04FORECAST2025214-7145.39233.0839.236139.963315612550.287401730.287401730.771.05740173FF13.392247.392121447.4045471129762.6202238340630.51785665484491163122126DRYL
2025-04-26 00:00:03FORECAST2025214-7144.61832.10838.363139.926363367840.425197080.425197080.821.24519708FF12.618233.618121447.3904211422662.6017146360430.48669434974053162122125DRYL
2025-04-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025214-7146.32836.21241.27141.802919609830.425197080.425197080.821.24519708FF14.328235.328121448.1061109482163.5427548274610.5553784153609163122126DRYL
2025-04-25 16:00:02FORECAST2025214-7147.3938.6643.025141.572572177160.3468505810.3468505810.841.186850581FF15.39236.39121448.0184435244463.4271234325640.59734019488709163122126DRYL
2025-04-25 12:00:03FORECAST2025214-7148.09238.40843.25141.188658904290.1059055690.1759055691.041.215905569FF16.092236.092121447.8722167822963.2344776479830.62450495987556163122126DRYL
2025-04-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025214-7148.8338.40843.619141.245940048940.1059055690.1759055691.051.225905569FF16.83235.83121447.8940433528463.2632151956930.65240978600345163122126DRYL
2025-04-25 04:00:03FORECAST2025214-7148.9238.87643.898141.467314011430.1059055690.1759055691.061.235905569FF16.92236.92121447.9783664726763.3742962401170.65576052233733163122126DRYL
2025-04-25 00:00:03FORECAST2025214-7148.1138.3943.25141.396980949740.0598425520.0598425521.191.249842552FF16.11231.11121447.9515811835663.3390011910190.62519407290614163121123DRYL
2025-04-24 20:00:03FORECAST2025214-7147.46238.35442.908143.422936101380.0598425520.0598425521.21.259842552FF15.462231.462121448.721222705864.3569152514680.60015051968693163121123DRYL
2025-04-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025214-7148.86638.58843.727143.190137626470.0602362530.0602362531.181.240236253FF16.866231.866121448.6329859975564.2398190087650.65375152680918163121123DRYL
2025-04-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025214-7148.12840.42444.276142.347793575260.2811025140.3311025141.151.481102514FF16.128232.128121448.3132792841763.8164061365890.62588278657225163122126DRYL
2025-04-24 08:00:02FORECAST2025214-7148.12840.42444.276142.610916279940.2807088130.3307088131.141.470708813FF16.128226.128121448.4132194267263.9486200944840.62588278657225163122126DRYL
2025-04-24 04:00:04FORECAST2025214-7146.47239.03842.755142.239058915870.2818899160.3318899161.141.471889916FF14.472224.472121448.2719598152463.7617817024930.56111565118182163122126DRYL
2025-04-24 00:00:03FORECAST2025214-7149.51440.31644.915142.95073364597000.920.92FF17.514219.514121448.5421911968564.1194353027620.67755940753674163121123DRYL
2025-04-23 20:00:03FORECAST2025214-7152.8842.67447.777142.73852760125000.920.92FF20.88226.88121448.4616651370664.0127577672680.78835527254038164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-23 16:00:03FORECAST2025214-7153.94242.63848.29142.67438303306000.910.91FF21.942227.942121448.4373155835663.9805173298850.81805561279752164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-23 12:00:03FORECAST2025214-7159.88243.5251.701141.720385783380.0177165450.0477165451.081.127716545FF27.882232.882121448.0747054768663.5013201199560.93428802124737165121124DRYL
2025-04-23 08:00:03FORECAST2025214-7159.88243.5251.701141.523963453680.0165354420.0465354421.081.126535442FF27.882232.882121447.9999370821263.4027267228610.93428802124737165121124DRYL
2025-04-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025214-7161.95242.83652.394141.409123365460.0480315220.1680315221.021.188031522FF29.952232.952121447.9562057817863.3450943657180.95711730377142165122128DRYL
2025-04-23 00:00:03FORECAST2025214-7147.343.77245.536145.4385064190600.221.151.37FF15.3202.3121449.4829990678965.3721360451930.59382022094291163122126DRYL
2025-04-22 20:00:03FORECAST2025214-7147.343.77245.536145.3245366191200.221.261.48FF15.3206.3121449.4400286065865.3146638953330.59382022094291163122126DRYL
2025-04-22 16:00:03FORECAST2025214-7147.344.63645.968144.946417496210.2055119220.4255119221.281.705511922FF15.3211.3121449.2973758064765.1240450135970.59382022094291163122126DRYL
2025-04-22 12:00:03FORECAST2025214-7147.46242.9845.221145.540243734680.003937010.093937011.031.12393701FF15.462216.462121449.5213469629465.4234464009270.60015051968693163122126DRYL
2025-04-22 08:00:03FORECAST2025214-7147.46242.9845.221146.00301780580.003937010.093937010.991.08393701FF15.462214.462121449.6956556127365.6569228136170.60015051968693163122126DRYL
2025-04-22 04:00:04FORECAST2025214-7149.49646.6748.083146.8383541164500.0511.05FF17.496213.496121450.009775446866.078694762920.67690724961975163121123DRYL