MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 1, 2025

[ Wednesday, April 30, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, May 2, 2025 ]

DAY 213 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/02/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 63.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.87°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.17°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.958
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 31
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 268

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.34 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.71 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.05 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 135 in
SWE DAY: 120
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.06 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 60.25 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -72

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-02 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025213-7263.4600442.8700253.16503135.3753854166700.340.711.05FF31.46004268.46004120445.06082678939 60.2502809604750.9575695003902116 5122128DRYL
2025-05-02 00:00:01FORECAST2025213-7154.6833.51244.096134.479523200.340.711.05FF22.68259.68121445.2936541138359.8828782892130.81357887027473164122127DRYL
2025-05-01 12:00:02FORECAST2025213-7153.85233.49443.673136.485820800.340.711.05FF21.852258.852121446.0693572586760.8821423591770.79183983029203164122127DRYL
2025-05-01 08:00:01FORECAST2025213-7155.07633.63844.357136.453348800.340.711.05FF23.076260.076121446.0568339208560.8659487436260.82346044142229164122127DRYL
2025-05-01 04:00:03FORECAST2025213-7154.96834.03444.501136.0890739666700.340.711.05FF22.968259.968121445.9162747883460.6843329026120.82079881839346164122127DRYL
2025-05-01 00:00:02FORECAST2025213-7255.81434.2545.032136.567945600.340.711.05FF23.814258.814120445.5230918892360.8441733766710.84097543962341164122127DRYL
2025-04-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025213-7256.04833.9845.014138.243953600.340.711.05FF24.048260.048120446.170390805661.6803588042240.84628330554244164122127DRYL
2025-04-30 16:00:02FORECAST2025213-7256.13836.4146.274138.169169600.340.711.05FF24.138260.138120446.1415668224961.6430098119070.84829328154562164122127DRYL
2025-04-30 12:00:01FORECAST2025213-7255.99436.30246.148137.367504800.340.711.05FF23.994259.994120445.8322371356861.2428619747310.84506891843119164122127DRYL
2025-04-30 08:00:01FORECAST2025213-7255.6736.10445.887137.44996400.340.711.05FF23.67259.67120445.864083841161.2840022728520.83765022797752164122127DRYL
2025-04-30 04:00:04FORECAST2025213-7255.63436.42846.031137.2081915333300.340.711.05FF23.634259.634120445.7706895971261.1633901581870.83681192204658164122127DRYL
2025-04-30 00:00:02FORECAST2025213-7256.15637.23846.697138.7321107612800.250.710.96FF24.156257.156120446.3584066733561.9242439138360.84869317685172164122127DRYL
2025-04-29 20:00:01FORECAST2025213-7255.92237.14846.535138.313975200.250.710.96FF23.922256.922120446.1973742549761.7153325570070.84343993156942164122127DRYL
2025-04-29 16:00:02FORECAST2025213-7255.97637.29246.634138.307382400.250.710.96FF23.976256.976120446.1948338652261.7120395123010.84466272221314164122127DRYL
2025-04-29 12:00:02FORECAST2025213-7255.52637.63446.58138.6307331117500.250.710.96FF23.526255.526120446.3193798053161.8735828243930.83428020222442164122127DRYL
2025-04-29 08:00:02FORECAST2025213-7255.79637.86846.832138.62956750800.280.710.99FF23.796256.796120446.3189310299861.8730003793180.84056223949155164122127DRYL
2025-04-29 04:00:03FORECAST2025213-7255.92238.85847.39138.5412943246500.310.711.02FF23.922256.922120446.2849406390961.8288933137360.84343993156942164122127DRYL
2025-04-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025213-7256.1238.9347.525138.7671744286100.320.711.03FF24.12261.12120446.3719026265561.9417676718090.84789268635536164122127DRYL
2025-04-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025213-7255.27438.46246.868139.2973874496500.270.690.96FF23.274260.274120446.5758343866162.2068470282010.82827491774328164122127DRYL
2025-04-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025213-7254.9538.58846.769139.3469619626700.250.690.94FF22.95259.95120446.5948878144162.2316408449990.82035277895603164122127DRYL
2025-04-28 12:00:02FORECAST2025213-7254.5938.46246.526138.8450758380700.260.690.95FF22.59258.59120446.401882461461.9807032246110.81128627075995164122127DRYL
2025-04-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025213-7253.56438.49846.031138.9333826775800.260.680.94FF21.564258.564120446.4358595834162.0248441204960.78394180867563164122127DRYL
2025-04-28 04:00:04FORECAST2025213-7253.70838.58846.148139.3371294431200.270.690.96FF21.708258.708120446.5911089826162.2267231604590.7879122750568164122127DRYL
2025-04-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025213-7253.83438.96646.4140.9420228558500.250.690.94FF21.834262.834120447.2066535102663.0302103803340.79135124147314164122127DRYL
2025-04-27 20:00:01FORECAST2025213-7253.94238.33646.139141.3396112258800.270.690.96FF21.942261.942120447.3587580559863.2295129421260.79427264758572164122127DRYL
2025-04-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025213-7254.37438.98446.679141.302215017500.260.70.96FF22.374263.374120447.3444580108463.2107627927340.80571369204167164122127DRYL
2025-04-27 12:00:02FORECAST2025213-7253.94239.18246.562140.9969831786800.350.691.04FF21.942260.942120447.2276887156163.0577549028730.79427264758572164122127DRYL
2025-04-27 08:00:03FORECAST2025213-7253.63638.8446.238141.0342569011200.340.691.03FF21.636260.636120447.2419529798563.0764364935210.78593238911563164122127DRYL
2025-04-27 04:00:04FORECAST2025213-7253.43839.54246.49141.4460750822600.330.681.01FF21.438261.438120447.3994616431963.2828978433460.78043266445678164122127DRYL
2025-04-27 00:00:02FORECAST2025213-7253.9640.20847.084140.6195505092700.20.680.88FF21.96257.96120447.0831730768862.8686348383290.79475718241061164122127DRYL
2025-04-26 20:00:02FORECAST2025213-7254.19440.51447.354142.2159367999100.170.680.85FF22.194257.194120447.6934701817263.6691462610980.80099434345333164122127DRYL
2025-04-26 16:00:02FORECAST2025213-7253.90640.20847.057142.2751064010200.180.680.86FF21.906256.906120447.7160431429863.6988476756110.79330154791273164122127DRYL
2025-04-26 12:00:02FORECAST2025213-7255.00440.78447.894141.2659871308200.130.680.81FF23.004258.004120447.3306034282663.192599267120.82168881039355164122127DRYL
2025-04-26 08:00:02FORECAST2025213-7254.89640.58647.741140.9898021357700.10.680.78FF22.896260.896120447.2249404503463.0541558642740.81901048936911164122127DRYL
2025-04-26 04:00:04FORECAST2025213-7254.84241.28848.065141.1623196125500.090.680.77FF22.842259.842120447.2909509525363.1406281781620.81766194740602164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-26 00:00:03FORECAST2025213-7254.06840.5547.309140.8934661822200.080.740.82FF22.068247.068120447.1880667582863.0058767609010.79765015287879164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025213-7253.63640.35246.994143.0454164098300.080.740.82FF21.636246.636120448.0096039017164.0857203457210.78593238911563164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-25 16:00:02FORECAST2025213-7254.12240.40647.264143.0678585771600.090.750.84FF22.122247.122120448.0181478761864.0969970203530.79908746518799164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-25 12:00:03FORECAST2025213-7253.5138.96646.238142.681485304290.0728346850.3928346850.721.112834685FF21.51245.51120447.8709834072263.9028971372340.78244187594213164122127DRYL
2025-04-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025213-7253.81638.64246.229142.834312848940.0728346850.3928346850.731.122834685FF21.816244.816120447.9292106633363.9796610100660.79086197864665164122127DRYL
2025-04-25 04:00:03FORECAST2025213-7253.8738.82246.346143.069266011430.0724409840.4124409840.721.132440984FF21.87245.87120448.0186836853264.0977042342650.79232774462201164122127DRYL
2025-04-25 00:00:03FORECAST2025213-7255.29239.9247.606142.9887977497400.390.81.19FF23.292241.292120447.9880464044464.0572721616270.82870840991599164122127DRYL
2025-04-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025213-7257.00240.11848.56145.0229201013800.390.811.2FF25.002242.002120448.7605946438665.0805718616850.86670084063381165122128DRYL
2025-04-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025213-7257.00240.29848.65144.8674640264700.40.781.18FF25.002241.002120448.7016940644465.0022765234980.86670084063381165122128DRYL
2025-04-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025213-7256.58840.3748.479144.009671175260.0468504190.4568504190.741.196850419FF24.588241.588120448.3762673240664.5705188201270.8580809319907165122128DRYL
2025-04-24 08:00:02FORECAST2025213-7254.21238.53446.373144.272793879940.0468504190.4468504190.741.186850419FF22.212236.212120448.4761653837864.7029093684810.80146935708405164122127DRYL
2025-04-24 04:00:04FORECAST2025213-7254.39238.87646.634143.777346115870.0468504190.4468504190.741.186850419FF22.392236.392120448.2880064854364.453659868050.80618185720496164122127DRYL
2025-04-24 00:00:03FORECAST2025213-7253.09637.23845.167144.6387856459700.220.70.92FF21.096228.096120448.6150080868864.8871299922440.77074486899692164122127DRYL
2025-04-23 20:00:03FORECAST2025213-7254.78838.24646.517144.7485444012500.220.70.92FF22.788231.788120448.6566210366664.9423928310390.81630715919169164122127DRYL
2025-04-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025213-7255.74238.60647.174144.7882118330600.210.70.91FF23.742231.742120448.6716573371264.9623669660150.83931843667184164122127DRYL
2025-04-23 12:00:03FORECAST2025213-7256.1240.44248.281144.3955865833800.410.71.11FF24.12231.12120448.5227624345364.7647073777340.84789268635536164122127DRYL
2025-04-23 08:00:03FORECAST2025213-7256.1240.44248.281144.1991642536800.40.711.11FF24.12231.12120448.4482176368964.6658581942910.84789268635536164122127DRYL
2025-04-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025213-7255.23839.07447.156144.1204369654600.440.71.14FF23.238229.238120448.4183291774264.6262455443720.82740583836431164122127DRYL
2025-04-23 00:00:03FORECAST2025213-7253.92435.76244.843146.0104072190600.520.851.37FF21.924212.924120449.1341999398465.5782674292220.793787435933571641231210.5DRYL
2025-04-22 20:00:03FORECAST2025213-7253.92435.76244.843145.8964374191200.520.961.48FF21.924216.924120449.0911284923965.5207957235710.793787435933571641231210.5DRYL
2025-04-22 16:00:02FORECAST2025213-7255.18436.35645.77145.5425246962100.520.981.5FF23.184222.184120448.957298352565.3423786830130.826096983761611641231210.5DRYL
2025-04-22 12:00:03FORECAST2025213-7258.74835.45647.102146.0992541346800.160.961.12FF26.748226.748120449.167768303565.623075930480.89907224877655165122128DRYL
2025-04-22 08:00:03FORECAST2025213-7258.74835.45647.102146.562028205800.160.921.08FF26.748224.748120449.3424923217965.8565470337320.89907224877655165122128DRYL
2025-04-22 04:00:04FORECAST2025213-7260.69235.4248.056147.1020661164500.10.951.05FF28.692221.692120449.5461284090166.1291643036150.9279266528013165122128DRYL
2025-04-22 00:00:04FORECAST2025213-7243.37638.22840.802145.602844719100.010.890.9FF11.376204.376120448.9801165414565.372782190750.42936387063625162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-21 20:00:03FORECAST2025213-7243.37638.3940.883145.5952640254800.010.880.89FF11.376207.376120448.9772490671865.368961119370.42936387063625162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-21 16:00:03FORECAST2025213-7240.56838.26439.416145.2812087230400.080.931.01FF8.568208.568120448.8584059247265.2106917582420.32868029873219162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-21 12:00:04FORECAST2025213-7247.64243.19645.419146.3174733916200.031.231.26FF15.642220.642120449.2501843029565.7331518879270.58918843543022163121123DRYL
2025-04-21 08:00:03FORECAST2025213-7247.64243.19645.419145.3099525363700.031.231.26FF15.642225.642120448.8692869478665.2251747814260.58918843543022163121123DRYL
2025-04-21 04:00:06FORECAST2025213-7246.25644.61845.437146.8423197403100.341.281.62FF14.256217.256120449.4482187877965.9980190499510.53759575363198163122126DRYL