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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 30, 2025

[ Tuesday, April 29, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, May 1, 2025 ]

DAY 212 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/01/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.68°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.28°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.48°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.653
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 254

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.37 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.68 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.05 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 138 in
SWE DAY: 119
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 61.32 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -73

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-01 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025212-7347.6799827.2800437.48001137.6736091666700.370.681.05FF15.67998253.67998119445.37191779065 61.3159593437190.6530970784957216 3122126DRYL
2025-05-01 00:00:02FORECAST2025212-7245.82426.92436.374138.263279200.370.681.05FF13.824251.824120446.1778385777761.6900110681310.57988300166053163122126DRYL
2025-04-30 12:00:01FORECAST2025212-7247.0326.94236.986139.21673600.370.681.05FF15.03253.03120446.5448317473562.1665139535360.62794651674634163122126DRYL
2025-04-30 08:00:01FORECAST2025212-7247.10226.56436.833139.2201800.370.681.05FF15.102253.102120446.5461557602562.168236183250.63076186128142163122126DRYL
2025-04-30 04:00:03FORECAST2025212-7247.49826.13236.815138.9830323333300.370.681.05FF15.498253.498120446.4549595408162.0496640772370.64611757783498163122126DRYL
2025-04-30 00:00:02FORECAST2025212-7347.46226.3336.896140.5922643612800.280.680.96FF15.462250.462119446.4984860632662.7742331895180.64473094168688163122126DRYL
2025-04-29 20:00:01FORECAST2025212-7347.60626.1536.878140.157400800.280.680.96FF15.606249.606119446.3311626075362.5566156471130.65026581349138163122126DRYL
2025-04-29 16:00:01FORECAST2025212-7347.53426.38436.959140.16212400.280.680.96FF15.534249.534119446.3329809570562.5589786221920.64750227948718163122126DRYL
2025-04-29 12:00:02FORECAST2025212-7346.83227.51837.175140.5071227117500.280.680.96FF14.832248.832119446.4657404630362.7316165818330.62016940012355163122126DRYL
2025-04-29 08:00:02FORECAST2025212-7347.13827.62637.382140.52071710800.310.680.99FF15.138250.138119446.4709693623762.7384207827040.6321669197218163122126DRYL
2025-04-29 04:00:03FORECAST2025212-7347.26428.59837.931140.4763303246500.340.681.02FF15.264250.264119446.453895923162.7162049584180.63707060714897163122126DRYL
2025-04-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025212-7347.5728.81438.192140.7246456286100.350.681.03FF15.57253.57119446.5493860249762.8405041040360.64888503017092163122126DRYL
2025-04-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025212-7347.49828.45437.976141.1877498496500.280.680.96FF15.498254.498119446.7273127729963.0724240867990.64611757783498163122126DRYL
2025-04-28 16:00:01FORECAST2025212-7347.60628.34637.976141.2406699626700.260.680.94FF15.606253.606119446.7476315996363.098934791370.65026581349138163122126DRYL
2025-04-28 12:00:02FORECAST2025212-7347.4828.23837.859140.6885014380700.270.680.95FF15.48253.48119446.5354904557362.8224089911310.64542450054037163122126DRYL
2025-04-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025212-7347.58828.36437.976140.7346930775800.260.680.94FF15.588253.588119446.5532485221162.8455343735550.64957566877318163122126DRYL
2025-04-28 04:00:03FORECAST2025212-7347.67828.38238.03141.1626462431200.280.680.96FF15.678253.678119446.7176732173463.0598488749310.65302141285506163122126DRYL
2025-04-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025212-7347.8429.46238.651142.7880068558500.260.680.94FF15.84257.84119447.3405301566363.8748626869060.65919183126657163122126DRYL
2025-04-27 20:00:01FORECAST2025212-7347.8429.35438.597143.1781168258800.280.680.96FF15.84256.84119447.4896425339264.0707243170940.65919183126657163122126DRYL
2025-04-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025212-7348.14629.44438.795143.193364617500.280.680.96FF16.146258.146119447.4954677226264.0783816742840.67073057548517163122126DRYL
2025-04-27 12:00:02FORECAST2025212-7348.32629.9339.128142.8781943786800.360.681.04FF16.326256.326119447.3750158140463.9201344696420.67744379717453163122126DRYL
2025-04-27 08:00:02FORECAST2025212-7347.330.09238.696142.8894905011200.350.681.03FF15.3256.3119447.3793346376663.9258051871070.63846758516056163122126DRYL
2025-04-27 04:00:04FORECAST2025212-7347.67830.54239.11143.3033750822600.330.681.01FF15.678256.678119447.5374888755864.133632631710.65302141285506163122126DRYL
2025-04-27 00:00:02FORECAST2025212-7348.23631.29839.767142.5385473092700.20.680.88FF16.236253.236119447.2451013440963.7496670367740.67409423613957163122126DRYL
2025-04-26 20:00:02FORECAST2025212-7348.52431.56840.046144.1844287999100.170.680.85FF16.524251.524119447.8736053632564.5763999638580.68476207358887163122126DRYL
2025-04-26 16:00:02FORECAST2025212-7348.23631.49639.866144.1954808010200.180.680.86FF16.236252.236119447.8778168575164.5819571418810.67409423613957163122126DRYL
2025-04-26 12:00:02FORECAST2025212-7347.9331.74839.839143.3078855308200.130.680.81FF15.93251.93119447.5392114997464.1358980921590.66260166606971163122126DRYL
2025-04-26 08:00:02FORECAST2025212-7348.05632.03640.046143.0185149357700.10.680.78FF16.056255.056119447.4286554985763.9905818491140.66735304841999163122126DRYL
2025-04-26 04:00:04FORECAST2025212-7348.25432.0940.172143.1889660125500.090.680.77FF16.254254.254119447.4937873251364.0761727041250.6747652837187163121123DRYL
2025-04-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025212-7348.16431.38839.776142.8357837822200.130.690.82FF16.164242.164119447.3587999505663.8988448228130.67140442444063163122126DRYL
2025-04-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025212-7347.98431.47839.731144.9498500098300.130.690.82FF15.984241.984119448.1649988089264.9614493570070.66464120183056163122126DRYL
2025-04-25 16:00:02FORECAST2025212-7348.09231.13639.614145.0105697771600.150.690.84FF16.092242.092119448.1880903892564.9920103546840.66870570814863163122126DRYL
2025-04-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025212-7347.6631.49639.578144.552069304290.0019685050.3519685050.691.041968505FF15.66240.66119448.0136356521164.761298110050.65233326399498163122126DRYL
2025-04-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025212-7347.94831.9139.929144.699386448940.0019685050.3619685050.691.051968505FF15.948239.948119448.0697104715664.8354121915890.66328204563906163122126DRYL
2025-04-25 04:00:03FORECAST2025212-7347.85831.78439.821144.913380411430.0019685050.3719685050.691.061968505FF15.858240.858119448.1511277970664.9430948642670.659874849976163122126DRYL
2025-04-25 00:00:03FORECAST2025212-7348.113240.055145.047227349740.0011811030.5111811030.681.191181103FF16.11235.11119448.202029451365.0104616644390.66938121545446163123129DRYL
2025-04-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025212-7348.05631.44239.749147.225013701380.0011811030.5111811030.691.201181103FF16.056234.056119449.0278093137966.1081253785250.66735304841999163123129DRYL
2025-04-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025212-7348.14631.74839.947147.084711226470.0011811030.4911811030.691.181181103FF16.146233.146119448.9747465319466.037320941630.67073057548517163123129DRYL
2025-04-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025212-7349.44231.3740.406146.1346191752600.460.691.15FF17.442234.442119448.6149210782565.5581706481080.71771937350168164122127DRYL
2025-04-24 08:00:02FORECAST2025212-7347.17432.16239.668146.2357754799400.450.691.14FF15.174231.174119448.6532730134265.6091593007320.63357021253632163122126DRYL
2025-04-24 04:00:04FORECAST2025212-7347.22831.74839.488145.7644357158700.450.691.14FF15.228231.228119448.4744873840365.3716305864980.63567180356682163122126DRYL
2025-04-24 00:00:03FORECAST2025212-7346.18433.0839.632146.417464045970.0007874020.2307874020.690.920787402FF14.184224.184119448.7221328396565.7007567516810.59439113343657163122126DRYL
2025-04-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025212-7349.131.89240.496146.712510001250.0007874020.2307874020.690.920787402FF17.1226.1119448.8338873479365.8495461864320.70563545396719164122127DRYL
2025-04-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025212-7349.08232.86440.973146.809938233060.0007874020.2207874020.690.910787402FF17.082225.082119448.8707718332465.8986902874630.70499290232899164122127DRYL
2025-04-23 12:00:03FORECAST2025212-7350.5435.04242.791146.529390583380.0287401730.4187401730.691.108740173FF18.54223.54119448.7645370955565.7571941360460.75482187464904164122127DRYL
2025-04-23 08:00:02FORECAST2025212-7350.8134.95242.881146.332968253680.0287401730.4087401730.71.108740173FF18.81223.81119448.6901129524565.6581560544110.76352700715227164122127DRYL
2025-04-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025212-7349.51435.04242.278146.127600165460.1188977020.4488977020.691.138897702FF17.514222.514119448.6122595576165.5546328939570.72023264368003164122127DRYL
2025-04-23 00:00:03FORECAST2025212-7345.24835.72640.487147.734276819060.2240158690.5840158690.791.374015869FF13.248208.248119449.220255214466.3652295365720.55645065842174163123129DRYL
2025-04-22 20:00:02FORECAST2025212-7345.24837.7641.504147.620307019120.2240158690.5840158690.91.484015869FF13.248212.248119449.1772086821266.3076774516450.55645065842174163123129DRYL
2025-04-22 16:00:02FORECAST2025212-7347.336.6841.99147.390575096210.2177166530.5777166530.921.497716653FF15.3216.3119449.0904007705666.1916924397620.63846758516056163123129DRYL
2025-04-22 12:00:03FORECAST2025212-7346.4936.46441.477147.750898134680.094488240.204488240.921.12448824FF14.49217.49119449.2265320644366.3736235784460.60662274488985163122126DRYL
2025-04-22 08:00:03FORECAST2025212-7346.4936.46441.477148.21367220580.094488240.204488240.881.08448824FF14.49215.49119449.4011870496666.6074002262770.60662274488985163122126DRYL
2025-04-22 04:00:04FORECAST2025212-7347.31835.52841.423148.828986116450.0500000270.1600000270.891.050000027FF15.318210.318119449.6330941776666.9184375308610.63916538427346163122126DRYL
2025-04-22 00:00:04FORECAST2025212-7349.06436.48242.773145.939471119100.020.880.9FF17.064210.064119448.5409056958165.459822552530.7043497059463164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-21 20:00:02FORECAST2025212-7349.49636.53643.016145.9381880254800.020.870.89FF17.496213.496119448.5404189250965.4591759941180.71960534386586164121123.5DRYL
2025-04-21 16:00:03FORECAST2025212-7348.21837.7642.989145.602583123040.0102362260.0902362260.921.010236226FF16.218217.218119448.4130450923665.2900976715180.67342262456469163122126DRYL
2025-04-21 12:00:04FORECAST2025212-7356.49837.8547.174146.885536591620.0259842660.0459842661.211.255984266FF24.498222.498119448.8993856531165.9368271373070.90438158714989165121124DRYL
2025-04-21 08:00:03FORECAST2025212-7356.49839.00247.75145.878015736370.0259842660.0459842661.211.255984266FF24.498227.498119448.5175894184865.4288559672270.90438158714989165121124DRYL
2025-04-21 04:00:05FORECAST2025212-7347.22838.35442.791147.062735740310.240157610.400157611.221.62015761FF15.228220.228119448.9664336296366.0262319851440.63567180356682163122126DRYL
2025-04-21 00:00:04FORECAST2025212-7340.58634.57437.58147.41125059240.0153543390.0553543390.670.725354339FF8.586206.586119449.0982154146166.2021295730850.36671898085207162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-20 20:00:07FORECAST2025212-7340.58634.737.643147.112597418450.0141732360.0541732360.660.714173236FF8.586196.586119448.9852946722266.0513929019160.36671898085207162111122DRYL
2025-04-20 16:00:03FORECAST2025212-7341.75635.34838.552146.860318673780.0137795350.0537795350.60.653779535FF9.756199.756119448.8898413349165.9241051478690.41314723269375162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-20 12:00:03FORECAST2025212-7342.22437.65239.938147.5279175095500.050.840.89FF10.224198.224119449.1423039053366.2610287605950.43210520445502162111122DRYL
2025-04-20 08:00:03FORECAST2025212-7342.22437.65239.938147.0051696991800.050.820.87FF10.224192.224119448.9446553073365.9971852389910.43210520445502162111122DRYL
2025-04-20 04:00:04FORECAST2025212-7345.89644.1545.023147.5623195029700.1211.12FF13.896199.896119449.1553019430966.278398171780.58279399654276163122126DRYL