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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 28, 2025

[ Sunday, April 27, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 29, 2025 ]

DAY 210 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/29/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.62°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.52°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.07°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.281
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 227

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.95 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.98 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 141 in
SWE DAY: 117
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.50 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 62.82 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -75

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-29 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025210-7537.6199630.5200434.07141.005295416670.0299999999999730.0299999999999730.950.97999999999997FF5.61996226.61996117445.50341396525 62.8183404953040.2814899319534116 2121122.5DRYL
2025-04-29 00:00:01FORECAST2025210-7440.9130.7435.825141.5340760.0295275750.0295275750.950.979527575FF8.91229.91118446.2851931469963.1645624445410.38525086774403162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-28 12:00:02FORECAST2025210-7440.89230.75835.825141.53889760.011811030.011811030.950.96181103FF8.892229.892118446.2870499415463.1669770618820.38465132548327162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025210-7440.51430.57835.546141.54952480.0043307110.0043307110.950.954330711FF8.514229.514118446.2911423880163.1722991274720.37212667104992162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-28 04:00:03FORECAST2025210-7441.10830.23635.672141.564675138410.0102362260.0102362260.950.960236226FF9.108230.108118446.2969764665363.1798864887390.39186363887022162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-28 00:00:01FORECAST2025210-7540.60429.82235.213143.306695646450.0110236280.0110236280.950.961023628FF8.604232.604117446.3916581619163.9709134953220.37509704821865162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-27 20:00:01FORECAST2025210-7540.0129.5734.79143.644353041120.011811030.011811030.950.96181103FF8.01233.01117446.5215435522864.1402982424910.35563732360587162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-27 16:00:01FORECAST2025210-7539.6528.99434.322143.697903789260.0240157610.0240157610.950.974015761FF7.65232.65117446.5421324831764.1671683914180.34402033043774162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-27 12:00:02FORECAST2025210-7539.77629.60634.691143.272193449620.0133858340.0133858340.950.963385834FF7.776232.776117446.3783800586963.9536096194950.34807023763348162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-27 08:00:02FORECAST2025210-7539.93829.64234.79143.233227503250.0094488240.0094488240.950.959448824FF7.938233.938117446.3633826909163.9340679420860.35330276056574162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-27 04:00:03FORECAST2025210-7539.9229.69634.808143.687715494420.0019685050.0019685050.950.951968505FF7.92233.92117446.538215552964.1620560737520.35271997675986162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-27 00:00:02FORECAST2025210-7540.78429.62435.204143.321632429940.0043307110.0043307110.950.954330711FF8.784229.784117446.3974061930163.9784049680750.38105990764436162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-26 20:00:01FORECAST2025210-7541.16229.7535.456145.112988644790.0043307110.0043307110.950.954330711FF9.162228.162117447.0851838837564.8778672121760.39367264471035162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-26 16:00:02FORECAST2025210-7541.10829.73235.42145.07444281783000.950.95FF9.108229.108117447.0704174251164.8584917082850.39186363887022162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-26 12:00:01FORECAST2025210-7541.16229.7535.456144.275838745140.0011811030.0011811030.950.951181103FF9.162228.162117446.7641559893864.4572733266310.39367264471035162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-26 08:00:02FORECAST2025210-754129.85835.429144.182341407770.0011811030.0011811030.950.951181103FF9231117446.7282594976964.4103264273930.38825266660089162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-26 04:00:04FORECAST2025210-7540.51429.89435.204144.530800283330.0011811030.0011811030.950.951181103FF8.514229.514117446.8620002251464.585322508750.37212667104992162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025210-7539.2929.8434.565144.042793944740.0535433360.0635433360.951.013543336FF7.29218.29117446.6746670928464.3402670323910.33254864906025162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-25 20:00:01FORECAST2025210-7539.48829.94834.718146.122045144740.0543307380.0643307380.951.014330738FF7.488219.488117447.4712278594465.3854109582510.33883952519871162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-25 16:00:01FORECAST2025210-7538.71430.16434.439146.193221224310.0582677480.0682677480.951.018267748FF6.714217.714117447.4984210041365.4212356593830.31451927396638162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025210-7538.62429.8434.232145.060715390280.031496080.041496080.950.99149608FF6.624217.624117447.0651582579264.8515916829650.31174029105275162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025210-7537.0429.55233.296145.155155943070.0374015950.0474015950.950.997401595FF5.04217.04117447.1013360302264.8990641538220.26468624872821162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-25 04:00:03FORECAST2025210-7536.64429.5733.107145.29599037820.0330708840.0430708840.950.993070884FF4.644217.644117447.1552700004664.9698678075470.25351270962352162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-25 00:00:02FORECAST2025210-7536.15829.80432.981145.240333763710.1169291970.1169291970.951.066929197FF4.158211.158117447.1339580431264.941885303270.24014565505007161122124DRYL
2025-04-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025210-7535.92428.77832.351147.232396040150.1157480940.1257480940.951.075748094FF3.924209.924117447.8948831164965.9446368153630.23384913592371161122124DRYL
2025-04-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025210-7537.34629.31833.332147.100448578380.0917323330.1017323330.951.051732333FF5.346210.346117447.8446009931865.8781416995040.27348847128054162122125DRYL
2025-04-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025210-7538.13829.33633.737146.231053989820.0539370370.0639370370.951.013937037FF6.138211.138117447.5128731832165.4402791195950.29692137536631162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-24 08:00:02FORECAST2025210-7537.99429.04833.521146.269581669490.0523622330.0523622330.961.012362233FF5.994210.994117447.5275893934365.4596732861330.29259323001916162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-24 04:00:04FORECAST2025210-7537.2229.06633.143146.106283470030.0523622330.0523622330.961.012362233FF5.22211.22117447.4652053750865.3774781395080.26984656173449162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-24 00:00:02FORECAST2025210-7538.328.29233.296147.696664045970.0051181130.0151181130.950.965118113FF6.3204.3117448.0716710025266.1786910605760.30182521684752162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025210-7539.77629.22834.502148.263589201250.0051181130.0151181130.950.965118113FF7.776200.776117448.2872670168866.464679201140.34807023763348162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025210-7539.63228.72434.178148.294097001440.0051181130.0151181130.950.965118113FF7.632199.632117448.2988600303366.4800746349720.34344321617317162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-23 12:00:02FORECAST2025210-7537.8529.0333.44148.045189851380.0106299270.0206299270.950.970629927FF5.85195.85117448.2042486704666.3544830866140.28829459862464162111122DRYL
2025-04-23 08:00:02FORECAST2025210-7538.10229.64233.872148.055926305550.0106299270.0306299270.950.980629927FF6.102197.102117448.2083309067966.359899610270.29583659823353162111122DRYL
2025-04-23 04:00:03FORECAST2025210-7538.2130.14634.178147.796732012350.011811030.021811030.950.97181103FF6.21196.21117448.1097484243266.229156399990.29909636568459162111122DRYL
2025-04-23 00:00:03FORECAST2025210-7537.41828.11232.765149.541403874910.0649606650.1149606651.011.124960665FF5.418185.418117448.7720702983367.1100054122610.27558041723519162112124DRYL
2025-04-22 20:00:02FORECAST2025210-7538.1228.34633.233149.749586295220.0649606650.1149606651.121.234960665FF6.12186.12117448.8509058189367.2152374546220.29637875950267162112124DRYL
2025-04-22 16:00:02FORECAST2025210-7538.46228.3133.386149.521627256260.0645669640.1045669641.151.254566964FF6.462189.462117448.7645790248567.1000101107630.30676509690418162112124DRYL
2025-04-22 12:00:03FORECAST2025210-7542.11628.61635.366149.891590134680.0358267910.1758267911.051.225826791FF10.116189.116117448.9046566055267.2870327974630.42597592651609162112124DRYL
2025-04-22 08:00:03FORECAST2025210-7540.60427.01433.809150.34363860580.0358267910.1758267911.011.185826791FF8.604185.604117449.0756353452367.5156650270140.37509704821865162112124DRYL
2025-04-22 04:00:04FORECAST2025210-7539.68627.12233.404150.946160516450.0610236550.22102365511.221023655FF7.686179.686117449.3032227992267.8205963892070.34517564786873162112124DRYL
2025-04-22 00:00:04FORECAST2025210-7540.49625.98833.242148.372039533850.011811030.251811030.911.16181103FF8.496177.496117448.3284742397366.5194101040490.37153350082864162112124DRYL
2025-04-21 20:00:02FORECAST2025210-7543.59225.734.646148.458669011340.0114173290.2514173290.91.151417329FF11.592179.592117448.3613821690266.5631340328980.47686982689156162112124DRYL
2025-04-21 16:00:03FORECAST2025210-7544.07827.15835.618148.195029523040.0114173290.2814173290.921.201417329FF12.078184.078117448.2612109501166.4300833907870.49375215044043162112124DRYL
2025-04-21 12:00:03FORECAST2025210-7543.30428.36435.834149.715028591620.0161417410.4461417411.051.496141741FF11.304182.304117448.837822226967.1977673877020.46688310221284162112124DRYL
2025-04-21 08:00:03FORECAST2025210-7542.27830.59636.437148.878231736370.0161417410.4461417411.051.496141741FF10.278187.278117448.5206589923266.7749626080080.43151749810173162112124DRYL
2025-04-21 04:00:05FORECAST2025210-7541.23428.92235.078149.551862140310.0570866450.6170866450.931.547086645FF9.234190.234117448.7760316791767.1152912215590.39608821935172162113126DRYL
2025-04-21 00:00:03FORECAST2025210-7541.30630.68635.996148.50444546980.011811030.421811030.530.95181103FF9.306185.306117448.3787683429866.5862403532070.39850778947012162112124DRYL
2025-04-20 20:00:06FORECAST2025210-7541.25230.48835.87148.221368618450.011811030.421811030.520.94181103FF9.252175.252117448.2712216451166.4433739845010.39669274076311162112124DRYL
2025-04-20 16:00:02FORECAST2025210-7541.70231.08236.392148.082741873780.0125984320.3525984320.530.882598432FF9.702176.702117448.2185262901866.3734283316770.41188285715038162112124DRYL
2025-04-20 12:00:03FORECAST2025210-7540.80234.53837.67148.988075109550.0350393890.4650393890.681.145039389FF8.802169.802117448.5623303388366.8304381638370.38165777584715162112124DRYL
2025-04-20 08:00:03FORECAST2025210-7540.62234.53837.58148.463457699180.0374015950.4574015950.671.127401595FF8.622163.622117448.3632010361166.5655511308910.37569201970698162112124DRYL
2025-04-20 04:00:04FORECAST2025210-7541.05434.30437.679148.930866702970.0377952960.5577952960.751.307795296FF9.054170.054117448.5406286020266.8015445691950.3900569671982162113126DRYL
2025-04-20 00:00:03FORECAST2025210-7541.82832.0936.959154.503920538140.0066929170.5666929171.171.736692917FF9.828170.828117450.6399997193769.625646707950.41616091775895162113126DRYL
2025-04-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025210-7541.7232.1836.95154.563532760840.0066929170.5466929171.21.746692917FF9.72167.72117450.6622954110469.655956460840.41249338053979162113126DRYL
2025-04-19 16:00:03FORECAST2025210-7542.18832.39637.292154.614954615720.0066929170.5766929171.241.816692917FF10.188170.188117450.6815250943369.6821035486050.42843711075274162113126DRYL
2025-04-19 12:00:03FORECAST2025210-7554.3229.94842.134149.603237513060.0007874020.2107874020.760.970787402FF22.32188.32117448.7954901101667.141258301740.80973062614279164112126DRYL
2025-04-19 08:00:03FORECAST2025210-7554.3229.94842.134149.126106100220.0007874020.2107874020.760.970787402FF22.32189.32117448.6146787569366.9001601824220.80973062614279164112126DRYL
2025-04-19 04:00:04FORECAST2025210-7548.0231.69439.857148.244643021110.1082677750.2282677750.881.108267775FF16.02183.02117448.2800669855766.4551185037560.62848416051299163112125DRYL
2025-04-19 00:00:03FORECAST2025210-7534.4329.26431.847150.948377209120.0015748040.4515748040.931.381574804FF2.43160.43117449.3040594560767.8217186483630.19587236375022161112123DRYL
2025-04-18 20:00:03FORECAST2025210-7534.4329.26431.847153.150947865520.0015748040.4515748040.971.421574804FF2.43161.43117450.1330627203368.9383052212310.19587236375022161112123DRYL
2025-04-18 16:00:03FORECAST2025210-7535.61829.98432.801154.478098077030.0015748040.8615748040.861.721574804FF3.618164.618117450.6303407589169.6125179762390.22575485887513161113124.5DRYL
2025-04-18 12:00:03FORECAST2025210-7540.0136.48238.246148.7647574452600.260.751.01FF8.01180.01117448.4775979713466.717661081840.35563732360587162112124DRYL
2025-04-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025210-7540.0136.48238.246148.4653115478900.260.751.01FF8.01180.01117448.363905169766.5664868678480.35563732360587162112124DRYL
2025-04-18 04:00:04FORECAST2025210-7543.37641.79242.584148.0370161931900.080.590.67FF11.376192.376117448.2011407909666.3503595370760.46937807667836162111122DRYL