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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, April 27, 2025

[ Saturday, April 26, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, April 28, 2025 ]

DAY 209 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/28/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.13°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.09°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.11°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.229
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 235

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.43 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.43 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 142 in
SWE DAY: 116
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.30 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 63.22 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -76

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-28 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025209-7636.1299230.0900233.10997141.98134333333001.431.43FF4.12992235.12992116445.30198972376 63.2245746899860.2286330798456316 1121122DRYL
2025-04-28 00:00:01FORECAST2025209-7538.94829.4834.214143.6972232001.431.43FF6.948237.948117446.541870831164.1668268809620.31442301278708162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-27 12:00:02FORECAST2025209-7540.11829.49834.808143.629032001.431.43FF8.118239.118117446.5156524777464.1326109382260.35367589764973162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-27 08:00:02FORECAST2025209-754129.24635.123143.6008896001.431.43FF9240117446.5048308810664.1184909252180.38436019545603162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-27 04:00:03FORECAST2025209-7540.94628.99434.97144.051603376450.0019685050.0019685051.431.431968505FF8.946239.946117446.6780508664664.344689420380.38245832654293162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-27 00:00:01FORECAST2025209-7641.8128.68835.249143.71814630860.0035433090.0035433091.431.433543309FF9.81234.81116445.9736900411164.0945120351130.41319812736068162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-26 20:00:01FORECAST2025209-7641.46829.13835.303145.54526891310.0027559070.0027559071.431.432755907FF9.468233.468116446.6771299920165.0117430020180.40095514499231162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-26 16:00:02FORECAST2025209-7641.6329.53435.582145.531117217830.003937010.003937011.431.43393701FF9.63233.63116446.6716941419865.0046306780660.40674312256028162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-26 12:00:01FORECAST2025209-7641.14429.55235.348144.731617217830.0047244120.0047244121.431.434724412FF9.144233.144116446.3642782507464.6030238595010.38944535397213162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-26 08:00:01FORECAST2025209-7641.64829.71435.681144.642357244560.0047244120.0047244121.431.434724412FF9.648235.648116446.3299181266564.5582114666090.40738751521566162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-26 04:00:03FORECAST2025209-7640.69429.42635.06144.946737083330.0043307110.0043307111.431.434330711FF8.694234.694116446.4470554277364.7110439647120.37362104715427162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025209-7640.38829.44434.916144.382273944740.0098425250.0098425251.431.439842525FF8.388225.388116446.229756094764.4276668867610.36297911210198162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-25 20:00:01FORECAST2025209-7640.78429.51635.15146.499901144740.0086614220.0086614221.431.438661422FF8.784225.784116447.0433658481865.4918089041730.37676987105634162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-25 16:00:01FORECAST2025209-7640.47829.42634.952146.516858824310.011811030.011811031.431.44181103FF8.478225.478116447.0498634815465.500341735150.36609855390749162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025209-7640.11829.3934.754145.301457820360.0086614220.0086614221.431.438661422FF8.118225.118116446.5834516629564.8892265650750.35367589764973162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025209-7639.12828.07633.602145.30065690490.0059055150.0059055151.431.435905515FF7.128226.128116446.5831438355664.8888241619630.3203408636514162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-25 04:00:03FORECAST2025209-7639.95628.3134.133145.470524246260.0086614220.0086614221.431.438661422FF7.956226.956116446.6484173848264.9741794307320.34813519369477162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-25 00:00:02FORECAST2025209-7640.15428.92234.538145.301834617180.0035433090.0035433091.431.433543309FF8.154221.154116446.5835964824964.8894158788440.35491143390119162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025209-7639.5628.27433.917147.2058501660.0051181130.0051181131.431.435118113FF7.56219.56116447.3136260893365.8471826193170.33472894722385162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025209-7639.3828.11233.746147.18605520.0070866180.0070866181.431.437086618FF7.38219.38116447.3060545345365.8372136340130.32870286047523162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025209-7639.2928.07633.683146.42827680.0074803190.0074803191.431.437480319FF7.29219.29116447.0159186323565.4557706675040.32570630361006162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-24 08:00:02FORECAST2025209-7637.63428.29232.963146.469506400.011.431.44FF5.634218.634116447.0317188664365.4765152075090.27272948692776162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-24 04:00:03FORECAST2025209-7637.70627.69832.702146.3017544833300.011.431.44FF5.706219.706116446.9674217231765.3921179949920.27494135990399162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-24 00:00:02FORECAST2025209-7636.26626.5131.388147.987436045970.0027559070.0127559071.431.442755907FF4.266212.266116447.6122778515666.2409933419490.23245083114895161121122DRYL
2025-04-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025209-7636.8627.01431.937148.647447601250.0027559070.0127559071.431.442755907FF4.86206.86116447.8640135324866.5738424840530.24952313679092162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025209-7636.87826.20431.541148.658078601440.0027559070.0127559071.431.442755907FF4.878205.878116447.8680648605966.579205989120.25005066354964162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-23 12:00:02FORECAST2025209-7635.58226.20430.893148.32099668470.0141732360.0141732361.431.444173236FF3.582203.582116447.7395543010766.4091769490970.21362196940051161121122DRYL
2025-04-23 08:00:02FORECAST2025209-7635.58226.65431.118148.357832770830.0141732360.0241732361.431.454173236FF3.582204.582116447.7536032045366.4277541867540.21362196940051161121122DRYL
2025-04-23 04:00:03FORECAST2025209-7636.19427.08631.64148.107183592410.0129921330.0129921331.431.442992133FF4.194204.194116447.6579822289266.3013629605870.2304264623374161121122DRYL
2025-04-23 00:00:03FORECAST2025209-7635.4225.68230.551149.804988270450.0488189240.1188189241.421.538818924FF3.42194.42116448.3044944751267.1582495364340.20929601566083161112123DRYL
2025-04-22 20:00:02FORECAST2025209-7635.13225.71830.425150.053270498010.0488189240.2288189241.421.648818924FF3.132194.132116448.3988051736767.2837072037110.20173376775413161112123DRYL
2025-04-22 16:00:02FORECAST2025209-7635.45626.38430.92149.820915760640.0440945120.2540945121.421.674094512FF3.456197.456116448.310546362367.1662966011540.21025286580581161112123DRYL
2025-04-22 12:00:03FORECAST2025209-7636.21227.80632.009150.326312226550.0208661530.2508661531.421.670866153FF4.212193.212116448.5024521927867.4217196627050.23093163016333161112123DRYL
2025-04-22 08:00:03FORECAST2025209-7635.49226.97831.235150.638150733270.0208661530.2108661531.421.630866153FF3.492191.492116448.6207386279167.57939844750.21121227503114161112123DRYL
2025-04-22 04:00:04FORECAST2025209-7635.02426.630.812151.012559826440.0448819140.2248819141.421.644881914FF3.024186.024116448.7626355879967.76879435460.19894056541097161112123DRYL
2025-04-22 00:00:03FORECAST2025209-7634.17826.76230.47148.734790283470.0759842930.3659842931.261.625984293FF2.178183.178116447.8972953860966.6179102977830.1778750451225161112123DRYL
2025-04-21 20:00:02FORECAST2025209-7633.63825.86229.75148.938260162870.07874020.35874021.261.6187402FF1.638181.638116447.9747987787966.7205871269270.16519220115171161112123DRYL
2025-04-21 16:00:03FORECAST2025209-7634.89826.40230.65148.782573076090.0763779940.4063779941.261.666377994FF2.898185.898116447.9154998535866.6420205888810.19571139514245161112123DRYL
2025-04-21 12:00:03FORECAST2025209-7636.64425.21430.929150.345772591620.1594489050.6994489051.261.959448905FF4.644184.644116448.5098366305667.4315579031640.24323913826329161113124.5DRYL
2025-04-21 08:00:02FORECAST2025209-7636.82425.62831.226149.507401336370.161417410.701417411.261.96141741FF4.824190.824116448.1913768530367.0079280546650.24846985717615161113124.5DRYL
2025-04-21 04:00:05FORECAST2025209-7636.17625.32230.749149.760489525030.2889765340.7089765341.261.968976534FF4.176195.176116448.2875852162567.1357682099780.22992191182486161113124.5DRYL
2025-04-21 00:00:03FORECAST2025209-7636.53625.55631.046148.984236471630.2562993510.4562993510.961.416299351FF4.536189.536116447.9923059951866.7437916538540.24012946733619161112123DRYL
2025-04-20 20:00:05FORECAST2025209-7634.10626.47430.29148.694724314250.2618111650.4618111650.951.411811165FF2.106180.106116447.8820291997866.5976948571680.17614946974973161112123DRYL
2025-04-20 16:00:02FORECAST2025209-7634.55626.11430.335148.619494296930.2059056230.3859056230.961.345905623FF2.556180.556116447.8533603902666.5597399403830.18710789175565161112123DRYL
2025-04-20 12:00:03FORECAST2025209-7636.44628.14832.297149.639885701780.3133859960.6333859960.961.593385996FF4.446175.446116448.2417468694567.0748437683120.23755469272874161113124.5DRYL
2025-04-20 08:00:03FORECAST2025209-7636.44628.18432.315149.102190230760.3122048930.5922048930.981.572204893FF4.446169.446116448.0372119949866.8033296133370.23755469272874161113124.5DRYL
2025-04-20 04:00:03FORECAST2025209-7636.6829.51633.098149.529024414590.2917324410.7817324410.971.751732441FF4.68174.68116448.1995990168667.0188487840010.24428050450196161113124.5DRYL
2025-04-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025209-7636.19428.05832.126155.169936863350.3023623681.1223623681.092.212362368FF4.194175.194116450.3292012154669.8775537203260.2304264623374161114126DRYL
2025-04-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025209-7635.40227.21231.307155.260802637530.2858269261.0958269261.122.215826926FF3.402172.402116450.3632564879469.9237606807710.20881855139243161114126DRYL
2025-04-19 16:00:03FORECAST2025209-7635.49227.10431.298155.373822892410.2303150851.1503150851.142.290315085FF3.492174.492116450.4056039957869.981240544990.21121227503114161114126DRYL
2025-04-19 12:00:03FORECAST2025209-7637.43627.89632.666150.795747113060.0031496080.4131496081.041.453149608FF5.436180.436116448.6804823823267.6591085558890.26669267489276162112124DRYL
2025-04-19 08:00:03FORECAST2025209-7637.43627.89632.666150.318615700220.0031496080.4231496081.031.453149608FF5.436181.436116448.4995315651567.4178287270690.26669267489276162112124DRYL
2025-04-19 04:00:04FORECAST2025209-7637.97628.6733.323149.166743739060.0047244120.4247244121.061.484724412FF5.976180.976116448.0617823691566.8359170699230.28331367054819162112124DRYL
2025-04-19 00:00:03FORECAST2025209-7636.69829.51633.107150.94712166720.1074803730.6974803731.161.857480373FF4.698171.698116448.737844970367.7356860814080.24480208604543161113124.5DRYL
2025-04-18 20:00:03FORECAST2025209-7636.69829.51633.107153.149692323610.1074803730.6974803731.21.897480373FF4.698172.698116449.5700070937868.8515082643340.24480208604543161113124.5DRYL
2025-04-18 16:00:03FORECAST2025209-7636.24829.9333.089154.500731523350.2751969991.0651969991.132.195196999FF4.248175.248116450.0781497865269.5374033846940.23194381521052161114126DRYL
2025-04-18 12:00:03FORECAST2025209-7647.06632.34239.704149.029847045260.0330708840.5230708840.971.493070884FF15.066186.066116448.0096719240566.766812881640.60470459844166163113127.5DRYL
2025-04-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025209-7647.06632.34239.704148.730401147890.0330708840.5230708840.971.493070884FF15.066186.066116447.8956230859666.6156956939580.60470459844166163113127.5DRYL
2025-04-18 04:00:04FORECAST2025209-7653.16832.07242.62148.210593793190.0248031630.1448031631.011.154803163FF21.168195.168116447.6974399020366.353503407570.79631279058989164112126DRYL
2025-04-18 00:00:03FORECAST2025209-7637.8532.70235.276150.855402449710.0011811030.0311811031.21.231181103FF5.85178.85116448.7030910904167.6892853868740.27939141952382162111122DRYL
2025-04-17 20:00:02FORECAST2025209-7637.8533.47635.663150.622164704060.0011811030.0311811031.171.201181103FF5.85183.85116448.6146770929667.5713137817560.27939141952382162111122DRYL
2025-04-17 16:00:03FORECAST2025209-7637.32834.73636.032151.263411060720.0385826980.3085826981.221.528582698FF5.328181.328116448.8576300028867.8957361948650.26342853997108162112124DRYL
2025-04-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025209-7646.50841.66644.087148.9806263347100.131.081.21FF14.508204.508116447.9909313731366.7419695482390.58475279832253163122126DRYL
2025-04-17 08:00:03FORECAST2025209-7646.50841.66644.087149.1535536394400.131.051.18FF14.508202.508116448.0567622772766.8292583258350.58475279832253163122126DRYL
2025-04-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025209-7628.4928.4928.49151.0014408086600.031.061.09FF-3.51165.49116448.7584235455567.7631685304010.07367564274968161111121.5DRYL