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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 26, 2025

[ Friday, April 25, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, April 27, 2025 ]

DAY 208 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/27/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.28°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.71°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.49°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.771
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 246

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.44 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.44 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 144 in
SWE DAY: 115
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.68 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 64.39 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -77

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-27 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025208-7751.2799835.7099843.49498144.46657458333001.441.44FF19.27998246.27998115445.6849090566 64.3865721548910.7708199491049216 4121123.5DRYL
2025-04-27 00:00:01FORECAST2025208-7644.70833.51239.11144.1740304001.441.44FF12.708239.708116446.1495106270864.3231731080940.54110790671088163121123DRYL
2025-04-26 12:00:01FORECAST2025208-7644.4233.49438.957145.17058640.0003937010.0003937011.441.440393701FF12.42239.42116446.5331436524164.8234783110560.52999371508163163121123DRYL
2025-04-26 08:00:01FORECAST2025208-7645.91433.85439.884145.1183360.0003937010.0003937011.441.440393701FF13.914240.914116446.5130535131764.797231328110.58720256727382163121123DRYL
2025-04-26 04:00:03FORECAST2025208-7645.93233.7139.821145.360607483330.0003937010.0003937011.441.440393701FF13.932240.932116446.6061837752864.9189461793880.58788313991349163121123DRYL
2025-04-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025208-7746.99434.19640.595144.77301120.0015748040.0015748041.441.441574804FF14.994231.994115445.8033394253264.540291851620.62750307035953163121123DRYL
2025-04-25 20:00:01FORECAST2025208-7747.24634.32240.784146.9141560.0007874020.0007874021.441.440787402FF15.246232.246115446.6282730617165.6160157825990.63672650601724163121123DRYL
2025-04-25 16:00:01FORECAST2025208-7747.17434.17840.676146.91897760.0007874020.0007874021.441.440787402FF15.174232.174115446.6301256546465.6184414265390.63409904490782163121123DRYL
2025-04-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025208-7747.42634.14240.784145.68937120.0031496080.0031496081.441.443149608FF15.426232.426115446.1569410037865.0003241913560.64326684886838163121123DRYL
2025-04-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025208-7747.55233.9840.766145.62452560.0007874020.0007874021.441.440787402FF15.552233.552115446.1319456763264.9677529441190.64782030200987163121123DRYL
2025-04-25 04:00:03FORECAST2025208-7747.5734.12440.847145.833231933330.0007874020.0007874021.441.440787402FF15.57233.57115446.2123787385965.0725933201090.6484690877694163121123DRYL
2025-04-25 00:00:01FORECAST2025208-7747.44434.12440.784145.6974992001.441.44FF15.444228.444115446.160073725165.0044069846350.64391861088762163121123DRYL
2025-04-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025208-7747.1232.95440.037147.52897920.0007874020.0007874021.441.440787402FF15.12227.12115446.8643223332165.9254373147190.6321243072136163121123DRYL
2025-04-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025208-7746.70633.20639.956147.51254640.0007874020.0007874021.441.440787402FF14.706226.706115446.8580180763765.9171641257030.61687206808307163121123DRYL
2025-04-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025208-7746.50833.65640.082146.73144720.0019685050.0019685051.441.441968505FF14.508226.508115446.5580545331765.5241096004680.60951132054267163121123DRYL
2025-04-24 08:00:01FORECAST2025208-7747.08433.74640.415146.7075360.0027559070.0127559071.441.452755907FF15.084228.084115446.5488625845265.5120833333780.6308058697289163121123DRYL
2025-04-24 04:00:03FORECAST2025208-7747.46233.87240.667146.507804083330.0027559070.0127559071.441.452755907FF15.462229.462115446.4720597863865.4116410638650.64456995285614163121123DRYL
2025-04-24 00:00:02FORECAST2025208-7746.86832.91839.893148.11408560.0090551230.0090551231.441.449055123FF14.868222.868115447.0886203511566.2201221854760.62286341077243163121123DRYL
2025-04-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025208-7745.51832.84639.182148.79540720.0114173290.0114173291.441.451417329FF13.518216.518115447.3493823225866.5635335033570.57216716468725163121123DRYL
2025-04-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025208-7745.46431.83838.651148.80426320.0114173290.0114173291.441.451417329FF13.464216.464115447.3527688062266.567999152690.57010822492753163121123DRYL
2025-04-23 12:00:02FORECAST2025208-7744.65431.89238.273148.37632160.0031496080.0031496081.441.443149608FF12.654214.654115447.1890392632566.352264705720.53902617728424163121123DRYL
2025-04-23 08:00:02FORECAST2025208-7744.20431.92838.066148.414771852230.0122047310.0122047311.441.452204731FF12.204216.204115447.2037575256466.3716436446270.52164222986929163121123DRYL
2025-04-23 04:00:03FORECAST2025208-7743.9733.20638.588148.202315860230.0031496080.0031496081.441.443149608FF11.97214.97115447.1224141276166.2645772467290.51258416620202163121123DRYL
2025-04-23 00:00:02FORECAST2025208-7740.98231.58636.284149.75211125410.0031496080.0731496081.431.503149608FF8.982205.982115447.7147804400467.046233610560.3979517312992162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-22 20:00:02FORECAST2025208-7740.96431.31636.14150.0020831625200.181.431.61FF8.964205.964115447.8101070723567.1724489220820.39727739382267162122125DRYL
2025-04-22 16:00:02FORECAST2025208-7741.91832.1837.049149.792061600.211.431.64FF9.918208.918115447.7300195435867.0664026676410.43339163931969162122125DRYL
2025-04-22 12:00:02FORECAST2025208-7740.02831.96435.996150.408222172970.1177165990.2277165991.431.657716599FF8.028204.028115447.9648589340567.3775980282370.36267872990549162122125DRYL
2025-04-22 08:00:03FORECAST2025208-7739.14631.31635.231150.665568834860.1177165990.1877165991.431.617716599FF7.146203.146115448.0628335919467.5076416968860.3310659916392162122125DRYL
2025-04-22 04:00:04FORECAST2025208-7737.00429.6633.332150.93288529910.1188977020.1788977021.431.608897702FF5.004198.004115448.1645360723667.6427665181320.25945568437862162112124DRYL
2025-04-22 00:00:03FORECAST2025208-7736.21228.8532.531148.435260213340.1578741010.2878741011.271.557874101FF4.212196.212115447.2115996199366.3819701600090.23515962331379161112123DRYL
2025-04-21 20:00:02FORECAST2025208-7734.64628.2231.433148.587162788570.1618111110.2818111111.271.551811111FF2.646194.646115447.2697288935566.4585400175060.19103063666845161112123DRYL
2025-04-21 16:00:02FORECAST2025208-7735.61827.78831.703148.496319284350.1909449850.3309449851.271.600944985FF3.618197.618115447.2349680778766.4127466148150.21779382732073161112123DRYL
2025-04-21 12:00:03FORECAST2025208-7732.55826.29429.426149.65489312530.2700788860.5400788861.271.810078886FF0.558194.558115447.677690016766.9971568540280.14073174903455161113124.5DRYL
2025-04-21 08:00:02FORECAST2025208-7736.9528.2232.585148.938010464010.2700788860.5400788861.271.810078886FF4.95200.95115447.403903731966.6354472956590.25775897717463162123127.5DRYL
2025-04-21 04:00:05FORECAST2025208-7737.36428.54432.954148.425340741730.2736221950.4236221951.271.693622195FF5.364206.364115447.2078029088566.3769705291070.2709124707561162122125DRYL
2025-04-21 00:00:03FORECAST2025208-7737.23828.65232.945147.962519295870.1464567720.1964567720.971.166456772FF5.238200.238115447.0305500484466.1437663873840.26687408434245162122125DRYL
2025-04-20 20:00:05FORECAST2025208-7733.85426.94230.398147.325421918710.1472441740.1972441740.961.157244174FF1.854192.854115446.7862113355965.8229670924780.17078508979782161112123DRYL
2025-04-20 16:00:02FORECAST2025208-7733.81827.10430.461147.717052965710.1283465260.1783465260.971.148346526FF1.818192.818115446.9364559580566.0201361370630.16989861334489161112123DRYL
2025-04-20 12:00:02FORECAST2025208-7733.15226.34829.75148.725247531130.1200788050.3200788050.971.290078805FF1.152186.152115447.3225509749466.5281571200040.1540312632802161112123DRYL
2025-04-20 08:00:03FORECAST2025208-7732.34226.09629.219148.913775865910.1114173830.2814173830.991.271417383FF0.342180.342115447.3946395272566.6232250741710.13609417108507161112123DRYL
2025-04-20 04:00:03FORECAST2025208-7735.00627.93231.469149.00023574720.2291339820.4891339820.981.469133982FF3.006185.006115447.4276880942866.6668310058720.2006994461672161112123DRYL
2025-04-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025208-7736.6825.05230.866154.061926393330.2649607730.8649607731.061.924960773FF4.68185.68115449.3498815958869.2277083832760.24936250890807162113126DRYL
2025-04-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025208-7736.2325.84431.037154.136395148670.2515749390.8515749391.091.941574939FF4.23184.23115449.3779772883969.2655014784340.23569751144645161113124.5DRYL
2025-04-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025208-7735.36625.5230.443154.616689511170.3421261690.9721261691.12.072126169FF3.366186.366115449.5590559098669.509332964550.21065561363162161113124.5DRYL
2025-04-19 12:00:03FORECAST2025208-7737.20230.14633.674151.01109917390.2094489320.4094489321.051.459448932FF5.202190.202115448.1942800504567.6823108738750.2657258641456162112124DRYL
2025-04-19 08:00:03FORECAST2025208-7735.07828.83231.955150.533967761070.2094489320.4194489321.041.459448932FF3.078191.078115448.0127396407767.441135305630.20266780572856161112123DRYL
2025-04-19 04:00:04FORECAST2025208-7735.81629.49832.657149.473751739060.1169291970.4169291971.071.486929197FF3.816189.816115447.608556961166.9057303194810.22349882867655161112123DRYL
2025-04-19 00:00:03FORECAST2025208-7735.83427.46431.649150.614281396280.3440946740.7040946741.061.764094674FF3.834181.834115448.0433130187467.4817216247270.22402163933112161113124.5DRYL
2025-04-18 20:00:03FORECAST2025208-7735.83430.2933.062152.816852052690.3440946740.7040946741.11.804094674FF3.834182.834115448.8793498729468.596329199040.22402163933112161113124.5DRYL
2025-04-18 16:00:03FORECAST2025208-7735.6931.78433.737153.182596496550.578740470.888740471.041.92874047FF3.69185.69115449.0177244146568.781700898810.21985860928714161113124.5DRYL
2025-04-18 12:00:03FORECAST2025208-774131.17236.086149.788464766370.2330709920.4930709920.981.473070992FF9186115447.7286475907667.0645867545430.39862637368842162113126DRYL
2025-04-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025208-774131.17236.086149.489018868990.2330709920.4930709920.981.473070992FF9186115447.6143849263366.9134352342860.39862637368842162113126DRYL
2025-04-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025208-7743.35830.97437.166149.257033783710.0641732630.1341732631.011.144173263FF11.358189.358115447.5258042172366.7963740791330.48887504388344162112124DRYL
2025-04-18 00:00:03FORECAST2025208-7744.09632.48638.291150.9573789650900.121.121.24FF12.096188.096115448.173851411567.6551499297690.51746269022205163112125DRYL
2025-04-17 20:00:02FORECAST2025208-7744.45632.75638.606150.7467732194400.121.091.21FF12.456193.456115448.0937356895267.5486847550390.53138444713113163112125DRYL
2025-04-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025208-7743.01631.31637.166151.236328543790.019685050.379685051.121.49968505FF11.016191.016115448.2798995948267.7962061747010.47563757560894162112124DRYL
2025-04-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025208-7754.69835.645.149149.498603934710.0909449310.1309449311.091.220944931FF22.698204.698115447.6180437454466.9182726359280.85852160526541165122128DRYL
2025-04-17 08:00:03FORECAST2025208-7754.69835.45645.077149.671531239440.0909449310.1309449311.061.190944931FF22.698202.698115447.6840383990467.0055555386390.85852160526541165122128DRYL
2025-04-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025208-7739.1128.74233.926151.001440808660.0114173290.0514173291.051.101417329FF7.11184.11115448.190607387667.6774274724350.32979906812041162111122DRYL
2025-04-17 00:00:03FORECAST2025208-7730.34425.86228.103154.5059263850.0070866180.2570866181.061.317086618FF-1.656155.344115449.5173160435969.4530893414150.098117049005006161112123DRYL
2025-04-16 20:00:03FORECAST2025208-7730.34425.86228.103154.804178025030.0070866180.2570866181.041.297086618FF-1.656155.344115449.6296821384969.6045533591050.098117049005006161112123DRYL
2025-04-16 16:00:03FORECAST2025208-7729.4826.54628.013155.18815619950.0070866180.2670866181.041.307086618FF-2.52151.48115449.7742203602369.7996319637730.08434388945793161112123DRYL
2025-04-16 12:00:03FORECAST2025208-7728.34624.15226.249155.721437654950.0098425250.2198425251.051.269842525FF-3.654147.346115449.9747260712270.0707112522030.068529335297446161112123DRYL
2025-04-16 08:00:03FORECAST2025208-7728.34624.15226.249155.676454727320.0098425250.2198425251.061.279842525FF-3.654147.346115449.9578236614370.0478387644340.068529335297446161112123DRYL
2025-04-16 04:00:04FORECAST2025208-7724.20622.2823.243158.388465816440.0161417410.5261417411.071.596141741FF-7.794138.206115450.9734225546871.4289885224250.029350263465436161113124.5DRYL