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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 25, 2025

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DAY 207 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/20/2025 12:00:02 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.60°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.80°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.20°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.235
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 180

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.56 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.60 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.16 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.76 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 153 in
SWE DAY: 114
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 68.56 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -78

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025207-7835.626.79831.199152.910588778150.5637798320.6037798322.162.763779832FF3.6179.6114448.3476054698768.557096329670.23542079527122161113124.5DRYL
2025-04-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025207-7834.80827.7731.289152.937667086480.5610239250.6010239252.192.791023925FF2.808178.808114448.3578911658168.5708098947140.21165737451609161113124.5DRYL
2025-04-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025207-7834.95227.71631.334152.983807375630.5842522840.6342522842.22.834252284FF2.952181.952114448.3754159258768.5941782619720.21587070789176161113124.5DRYL
2025-04-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025207-7837.9431.80234.871150.563505490720.2043308190.2043308192.152.354330819FF5.94183.94114447.4533723003667.3701482771860.31346793834382162112124DRYL
2025-04-19 08:00:03FORECAST2025207-7838.17431.76634.97149.938391441770.2137796430.2137796432.142.353779643FF6.174187.174114447.2143049527567.0545935143630.32184729586203162112124DRYL
2025-04-19 04:00:04FORECAST2025207-7838.08432.50435.294149.495092251080.2984253580.2984253582.172.468425358FF6.084185.084114447.0445403243866.8309647961350.31861343641774162112124DRYL
2025-04-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025207-7836.48229.40832.945149.584838283950.248031630.358031632.162.51803163FF4.482177.482114447.0789246499666.8762286439280.26352898609848162112124DRYL
2025-04-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025207-7837.99430.234.097151.807745245990.248031630.358031632.22.55803163FF5.994177.994114447.9280886209667.9989531658960.31539332333562162112124DRYL
2025-04-18 16:00:03FORECAST2025207-7839.6530.48835.069151.291975781770.2062993240.3062993242.142.446299324FF7.65180.65114447.731488502467.7381815152420.37665346870268162112124DRYL
2025-04-18 12:00:03FORECAST2025207-7840.11831.1935.654149.997222429570.2551182480.2551182482.082.335118248FF8.118176.118114447.2368203407167.0842808193370.39462902743601162112124DRYL
2025-04-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025207-7840.4632.59436.527149.697776532190.2551182480.2551182482.082.335118248FF8.46176.46114447.1221834538266.9331967012570.4079107902552162112124DRYL
2025-04-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025207-7843.19632.21637.706149.88834923140.0562992430.0662992432.112.176299243FF11.196177.196114447.195150496567.0293428922070.51670683766792163111122.5DRYL
2025-04-18 00:00:03FORECAST2025207-7844.25832.7238.489151.703742965090.0267716680.1167716682.222.336771668FF12.258175.258114447.8884659387467.9463567137980.55904986433827163112125DRYL
2025-04-17 20:00:02FORECAST2025207-7844.49234.44839.47151.545486019440.0267716680.1167716682.192.306771668FF12.492180.492114447.8281532848667.8663351427420.56830656184735163112125DRYL
2025-04-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025207-7843.19633.72838.462151.936838143790.251968640.361968642.222.58196864FF11.196179.196114447.9772557435868.0642477980130.51670683766792163112125DRYL
2025-04-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025207-7847.96634.35841.162150.926879934710.0405512030.0405512032.192.230551203FF15.966180.966114447.5921661267867.5536891167320.69882043220163163111122.5DRYL
2025-04-17 08:00:03FORECAST2025207-7847.62433.87240.748151.068220839440.0405512030.0405512032.162.200551203FF15.624178.624114447.6461178405867.6251025878570.68674942860262163111122.5DRYL
2025-04-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025207-7845.84231.1938.516151.359813608660.0220472560.0420472562.152.192047256FF13.842175.842114447.7573615212167.7724707817550.62083067846159163111122.5DRYL
2025-04-17 00:00:03FORECAST2025207-7838.1228.79633.458154.439875549240.1657481210.2557481212.152.405748121FF6.12156.12114448.9273982569669.332291517450.31990534210877162112124DRYL
2025-04-16 20:00:03FORECAST2025207-7838.1228.79633.458154.738127189270.1657481210.2557481212.132.385748121FF6.12156.12114449.0402110802669.4836412952340.31990534210877162112124DRYL
2025-04-16 16:00:03FORECAST2025207-7836.1429.31832.729155.124916046880.2318898890.2618898892.142.401889889FF4.14153.14114449.1863856259369.6800003596220.25243068428486162112124DRYL
2025-04-16 12:00:03FORECAST2025207-7840.22626.58233.404155.620934350540.0653543660.2053543662.152.355354366FF8.226150.226114449.373629921769.9319441609070.39881084687162112124DRYL
2025-04-16 08:00:03FORECAST2025207-7840.22626.58233.404155.575951422910.0653543660.2053543662.162.365354366FF8.226150.226114449.3566588287669.9090897255050.39881084687162112124DRYL
2025-04-16 04:00:04FORECAST2025207-7838.13824.99831.568158.188836223680.2976379560.5076379562.172.677637956FF6.138145.138114450.3392363342271.2386397015710.32055211564716162113126DRYL
2025-04-16 00:00:03FORECAST2025207-7829.44426.76228.103156.05103658550.0818898080.1318898082.122.251889808FF-2.556129.444114449.5358003934870.1505276336950.090121072036322161112123DRYL
2025-04-15 20:00:03FORECAST2025207-7829.44426.76228.103158.005645500290.0818898080.1318898082.122.251889808FF-2.556131.444114450.2705596795671.1452904319450.090121072036322161112123DRYL
2025-04-15 16:00:03FORECAST2025207-7835.38428.8532.117156.9389244147600.012.172.18FF3.384143.384114449.8700195289770.6021169913230.22879794046702161111121.5DRYL
2025-04-15 12:00:03FORECAST2025207-7832.59427.26629.93156.24222761555002.222.22FF0.594141.594114449.6078322983370.247729271690.15310948793515161111121.5DRYL
2025-04-15 08:00:03FORECAST2025207-7832.59427.26629.93156.1614941918002.222.22FF0.594144.594114449.5774199588170.2066816556620.15310948793515161111121.5DRYL
2025-04-15 04:00:04FORECAST2025207-7826.47424.00825.241155.908773260150.0019685050.0219685052.22.221968505FF-5.526140.474114449.4821794737670.0782152040540.050592812555632161111121.5DRYL