MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 23, 2025

[ Tuesday, April 22, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, April 24, 2025 ]

DAY 205 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/20/2025 12:00:02 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.58°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.89°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.488
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 178

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.08 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.93 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.01 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 151 in
SWE DAY: 112
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 446.52 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 67.47 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -80

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025205-8043.19628.5835.888151.1097411405600.083.934.01TF11.196178.196112446.5158040462567.4728875645980.48750781312506162111122WETL
2025-04-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025205-8043.91628.3136.113151.3007356958600.073.974.04TF11.916177.916112446.5892266704467.5692785490830.51926700339862163111122.5WETL
2025-04-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025205-8044.34828.52636.437151.3042058293600.083.974.05TF12.348181.348112446.5905603387667.5710300629450.53827682021221163111122.5WETL
2025-04-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025205-8044.43828.09436.266150.9747398591900.063.944TF12.438180.438112446.4638850116567.4047688961560.54222766439905163111122.5DRYL
2025-04-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025205-8044.38428.56236.473150.8985821546500.053.943.99TF12.384181.384112446.4345882898367.3663463977290.53985763329202163111122.5DRYL
2025-04-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025205-8044.34828.97636.662150.649198092700.053.974.02TF12.348180.348112446.3386143249567.2405543258620.53827682021221163111122.5WETL
2025-04-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025205-8043.57427.6835.627150.1244919993500.073.944.01TF11.574175.574112446.136485697366.9760132776830.50418427662266163111122.5WETL
2025-04-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025205-8043.71827.93235.825152.2332398051300.083.974.05TF11.718175.718112446.9471912841668.0402189509890.51053687363815163111122.5WETL
2025-04-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025205-8044.72629.04836.887151.9592538179800.063.933.99TF12.726176.726112446.842102977767.9017925429460.55484045514948163111122.5DRYL
2025-04-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025205-8042.60228.27435.438151.1184564069400.033.93.93TF10.602170.602112446.5191551672867.4772854850120.46135719612014162111122DRYL
2025-04-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025205-8042.31426.70834.511151.0928577095700.043.893.93TF10.314170.314112446.509311960167.4643679379840.44873101892058162111122DRYL
2025-04-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025205-8041.927.08634.493151.4805956885800.043.923.96TF9.9167.9112446.6583363597167.660070861040.43067468635766162111122DRYL
2025-04-18 00:00:03FORECAST2025205-8042.54826.94234.745153.3871701650900.093.984.07TF10.548164.548112447.3889836582968.623730166380.45898642860745162111122WETL
2025-04-17 20:00:02FORECAST2025205-8043.5227.60835.564153.5235228194400.093.954.04TF11.52166.52112447.4411019770968.6927342297340.5018016925905163111122.5WETL
2025-04-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025205-8043.89827.51835.708153.6698051242900.13.974.07TF11.898166.898112447.4969956575468.7667761164010.51847367396601163112125WETL
2025-04-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025205-8042.40426.58234.493153.1795511347100.093.954.04TF10.404164.404112447.3095903897868.5186822741580.45267173536365162111122WETL
2025-04-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025205-8041.55826.4233.989153.1510536394400.093.924.01TF9.558163.558112447.2986897135868.5042656211740.41586544551399162111122WETL
2025-04-17 04:00:03FORECAST2025205-8041.55826.36633.962152.9477928086600.093.914TF9.558162.558112447.220916816468.4014521249340.41586544551399162111122WETL
2025-04-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025205-8041.93626.92434.43155.032018354030.0098425250.0598425253.954.009842525TF9.936153.936112448.0164940457169.4569013278020.43223962027608162111122WETL
2025-04-16 20:00:02FORECAST2025205-8039.39826.6933.044155.330565194060.0098425250.0498425253.943.989842525TF7.398154.398112448.1301089702269.6083031068190.3258568582211162111122DRYL
2025-04-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025205-8039.66825.77232.72155.5176790691200.043.953.99TF7.668152.668112448.2012730805169.7032217453080.33668785109699162111122DRYL
2025-04-16 12:00:03FORECAST2025205-8041.6326.7834.205155.297108121770.0043307110.1043307113.94.004330711TF9.63153.63112448.1173808397569.5913333435150.4189740079108162112124WETL
2025-04-16 08:00:03FORECAST2025205-8042.33227.01434.673155.252125194140.0043307110.1043307113.914.014330711TF10.332154.332112448.1002662038169.5685186282040.44951877037764162112124WETL
2025-04-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025205-8042.33226.79834.565155.205762267970.0043307110.1043307113.924.024330711TF10.332152.332112448.0826244739269.5450052905050.44951877037764162112124WETL
2025-04-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025205-8038.37226.4232.396155.329953997250.0062992160.0762992163.93.976299216TF6.372141.372112448.1298764612969.6079930955250.28608248761922162111122DRYL
2025-04-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025205-8038.37225.77232.072157.284562912040.0062992160.0762992163.93.976299216TF6.372143.372112448.8715984490770.6005731656890.28608248761922162111122DRYL
2025-04-15 16:00:03FORECAST2025205-8039.23625.50232.369157.511022014760.0062992160.0862992163.944.026299216TF7.236144.236112448.9572958486470.7157225101020.31942733191564162111122WETL
2025-04-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025205-8041.8125.19633.503156.8690356155500.193.884.07TF9.81143.81112448.7142249778770.3893677392560.426767163088162112124WETL
2025-04-15 08:00:03FORECAST2025205-8041.8125.19633.503156.788302191800.193.884.07TF9.81146.81112448.6836293738470.348344470780.426767163088162112124WETL
2025-04-15 04:00:03FORECAST2025205-8042.24228.50835.375156.343705271850.0173228440.2173228443.854.067322844TF10.242151.242112448.5150277003270.1225013007750.44558206436372162112124WETL
2025-04-15 00:00:03FORECAST2025205-8046.7629.28238.021157.278305128560.003937010.213937013.864.07393701TF14.76148.76112448.8692296580870.5973916649870.64164643927524163112125WETL
2025-04-14 20:00:03FORECAST2025205-8046.56228.6737.616159.0660983471600.173.844.01TF14.562145.562112449.5444433762971.507280641510.63343462783936163112125WETL
2025-04-14 16:00:03FORECAST2025205-8046.86828.38237.625159.8560338216100.283.874.15TF14.868143.868112449.8418108972771.9099277371670.64609844486317163112125WETL
2025-04-14 12:00:03FORECAST2025205-8040.02826.13233.08160.451019164390.0102362260.5202362263.884.400236226TF8.028146.028112450.0653967353272.2134515968070.35134104539967162113126WETL
2025-04-14 08:00:04FORECAST2025205-8040.02826.13233.08160.030124276250.0102362260.5202362263.894.410236226TF8.028150.028112449.9072662386971.9987157289650.35134104539967162113126WETL
2025-04-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025205-8039.8324.9832.405159.429793060280.0177165450.6077165453.864.467716545TF7.83150.83112449.6814286683871.6926171156480.34325276954265162113126WETL
2025-04-14 00:00:03FORECAST2025205-8027.9522.33425.142161.086251659490.0027559070.3427559074.024.362755907TF-4.05131.95112450.3037341395372.5377406408110.04278514320525161112123WETL
2025-04-13 20:00:04FORECAST2025205-8029.22822.33425.781161.373161582040.0027559070.3327559074.034.362755907TF-2.772135.228112450.411255912872.6842883787850.057352314104408161112123WETL
2025-04-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025205-8029.321.52425.412160.075110225950.0023622060.2623622063.934.192362206TF-2.7134.3112449.9241755605572.0216619961760.058276567324227161112123WETL
2025-04-13 12:00:04FORECAST2025205-8023.70220.6622.181158.307293140100.233.753.98TF-8.298128.702112449.2582323073571.1208546774830.014208366460043161112123DRYL
2025-04-13 08:00:03FORECAST2025205-8023.70220.6622.181156.8909734743800.233.753.98TF-8.298145.702112448.722537700170.4005157596650.014208366460043161112123DRYL
2025-04-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025205-8025.17824.15224.665160.697944964790.0102362260.4302362263.824.250236226TF-6.822127.178112450.1580882760672.3394796952430.021316909462011161112123WETL