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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, April 22, 2025

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DAY 204 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/20/2025 12:00:02 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.48°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.98°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.73°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.288
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 189

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.28 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.73 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.01 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 152 in
SWE DAY: 111
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 446.16 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 67.68 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -81

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025204-8138.4822.98230.731151.6918755405600.283.734.01TF6.48189.48111446.1639758044667.6794502884130.28842947864932162112124WETL
2025-04-19 20:00:01FORECAST2025204-8138.31822.9130.614151.9201636958600.33.744.04TF6.318188.318111446.2519347245567.7946669729480.28236905287943162112124WETL
2025-04-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025204-8138.5723.16230.866151.9529570293600.313.744.05TF6.57190.57111446.2645657342667.8112203807430.29182263539605162112124WETL
2025-04-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025204-8138.31823.07230.695151.6072550591900.263.744TF6.318190.318111446.1313587617667.6367506976960.28236905287943162112124WETL
2025-04-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025204-8137.83223.37830.605151.5658325546500.263.733.99TF5.832190.832111446.1153898631467.6158504800490.26456392181581162112124DRYL
2025-04-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025204-8138.0323.75630.893151.321663692700.283.744.02TF6.03190.03111446.0212255345167.492673890140.27174851918156162112124WETL
2025-04-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025204-8137.97622.89230.434150.6926535993500.283.734.01TF5.976185.976111445.7783770518567.1755265551560.26977950362195162112124WETL
2025-04-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025204-8138.8422.98230.911152.8218686051300.33.754.05TF6.84185.84111446.5988614689968.2500725266130.30211192773098162112124WETL
2025-04-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025204-8139.5623.16231.361152.5834050179800.253.743.99TF7.56185.56111446.5071909864368.1295875657210.33031162335913162112124DRYL
2025-04-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025204-8138.35422.58630.47151.6418460069400.23.733.93TF6.354182.354111446.1446927216867.6542047905150.28371051293829162112124DRYL
2025-04-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025204-8137.61622.53230.074151.5792489095700.193.743.93TF5.616181.616111446.1205622213667.6226197446280.25683777313921162112124DRYL
2025-04-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025204-8137.81422.24430.029151.9487828885800.213.753.96TF5.814179.814111446.2629580387167.8091133222410.26391559484468162112124DRYL
2025-04-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025204-8138.06621.7429.903153.9245325650900.313.764.07TF6.066176.066111447.0220277513168.8076566679180.27306515318064162112124WETL
2025-04-17 20:00:02FORECAST2025204-8138.4823.05430.767154.1561364194400.293.754.04TF6.48177.48111447.1107592061368.9248671907780.28842947864932162112124WETL
2025-04-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025204-8138.44422.51430.479154.3189499242900.323.754.07TF6.444177.444111447.1731046468369.0072839434860.28707743702973162112124WETL
2025-04-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025204-8137.2222.94630.083153.7363967347100.283.764.04TF5.22176.22111446.9499112181168.712468871570.24298380287615161112123WETL
2025-04-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025204-8137.23823.03630.137153.6199296394400.253.764.01TF5.238176.238111446.9052495877268.6535529971610.24360464952387161112123WETL
2025-04-17 04:00:03FORECAST2025204-8137.38222.83830.11153.4124376086600.243.764TF5.382175.382111446.8256498870668.5486121352480.24860207145225161112123WETL
2025-04-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025204-8137.25623.28830.272155.4857407540300.223.784TF5.256166.256111447.619144935669.5983943259970.24422635050161161112123WETL
2025-04-16 20:00:02FORECAST2025204-8138.87623.68431.28155.6039203940600.193.793.98TF6.876168.876111447.6642489145769.6583121513680.30349604079751162112124DRYL
2025-04-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025204-8139.72222.83831.28155.8044166691200.193.83.99TF7.722166.722111447.7407385758669.7599845928140.33679925272676162112124DRYL
2025-04-16 12:00:03FORECAST2025204-8139.57822.02830.803155.6231677579300.253.754TF7.578165.578111447.6715935061469.6680714966650.3310300037833162112124WETL
2025-04-16 08:00:03FORECAST2025204-8137.38221.9229.651155.718672088500.253.764.01TF5.382166.382111447.7080316433969.7165001708640.24860207145225161112123WETL
2025-04-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025204-8137.34621.8329.588155.6543783948400.253.774.02TF5.346164.346111447.6835023936969.6838972827130.24734762584874161112123WETL
2025-04-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025204-8136.17622.2829.228155.5920915972500.213.763.97TF4.176157.176111447.65973499269.6523144912760.20847525853493161112123DRYL
2025-04-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025204-8137.5821.77629.678157.5488653120400.213.763.97TF5.58158.58111448.4046073261770.6456370849270.25556157819897162112124DRYL
2025-04-15 16:00:03FORECAST2025204-8137.54421.25429.399157.8116340147600.253.774.02TF5.544158.544111448.5043521204270.7792046708550.25428869884932162112124WETL
2025-04-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025204-8135.36621.48828.427157.308194815550.0417323060.3417323063.734.071732306TF3.366156.366111448.3131923967570.5233390079290.18380716664487161112123WETL
2025-04-15 08:00:03FORECAST2025204-8136.01422.0129.012157.22746139180.0417323060.3417323063.734.071732306TF4.014159.014111448.2825145473970.482321748620.20339165545476161112123WETL
2025-04-15 04:00:03FORECAST2025204-8138.0325.35831.694156.911670071850.0539370370.3339370373.724.053937037TF6.03163.03111448.1624567298770.3219195489870.27174851918156162112124WETL
2025-04-15 00:00:03FORECAST2025204-8139.90224.02631.964158.154163528560.0019685050.3319685053.744.071968505TF7.902155.902111448.6342735381170.9533782616650.34406500417228162112124WETL
2025-04-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025204-8139.72224.20631.964159.912928747160.0011811030.2811811033.734.011181103TF7.722152.722111449.2995957016971.848814233570.33679925272676162112124WETL
2025-04-14 16:00:03FORECAST2025204-8138.89423.64831.271160.728349821610.0043307110.4143307113.744.154330711TF6.894150.894111449.6070538222372.2645998290020.30418915679709162112124WETL
2025-04-14 12:00:03FORECAST2025204-8137.14825.68231.415160.758912764390.0240157610.6840157613.714.394015761TF5.148160.148111449.6185653382372.2801917224590.24050898454542161113124.5WETL
2025-04-14 08:00:03FORECAST2025204-8137.14825.68231.415160.338017876250.0240157610.6940157613.714.404015761TF5.148164.148111449.4599568907872.0655186026110.24050898454542161113124.5WETL
2025-04-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025204-8136.48225.35830.92159.715531372380.0641732630.7441732633.714.454173263TF4.482165.482111449.2250703627171.7482208187750.21827910554613161113124.5WETL
2025-04-14 00:00:03FORECAST2025204-8133.74624.72829.237161.056845872220.1740158420.6540158423.714.364015842TF1.746157.746111449.7307348803272.4322136516210.14019127326598161113124.5WETL
2025-04-13 20:00:03FORECAST2025204-8134.62826.1530.389161.346213391390.1633859150.6533859153.714.363385915TF2.628159.628111449.8395983150372.5799158216320.16298541974427161113124.5WETL
2025-04-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025204-8134.82626.74430.785160.05484204430.1157480940.4757480943.714.185748094TF2.826158.826111449.3531505171971.9211475281350.16841557650031161112123WETL
2025-04-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025204-8137.9423.59430.767158.307293140100.263.723.98TF5.94158.94111448.6923190358871.0312664793250.26847080235443162112124DRYL
2025-04-13 08:00:03FORECAST2025204-8136.73423.03629.885156.8909734743800.263.723.98TF4.734175.734111448.1545849165170.311409094560.2265482628822161112123DRYL
2025-04-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025204-8134.57421.6528.112160.587613929620.1263780210.5163780213.724.236378021TF2.574155.574111449.5540341906172.1928096831070.16152439423575161113124.5WETL
2025-04-13 00:00:03FORECAST2025204-8124.04418.33821.191158.876541310180.0444882130.4044882133.513.914488213TF-7.956150.044111448.9079010906771.3209346920990.015722543299327161112123DRYL
2025-04-12 20:00:03FORECAST2025204-8124.0818.96821.524159.380880392750.0444882130.4044882133.523.924488213TF-7.92144.08111449.0986409414171.577736776430.01588046935419161112123DRYL
2025-04-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025204-8123.77418.78821.281160.611036342350.0484252230.5584252233.524.078425223TF-8.226142.774111449.56285946472.2047567595410.01458040777462161113124.5WETL
2025-04-12 12:00:03FORECAST2025204-8125.71821.81223.765159.162765088350.0015748040.2315748043.513.741574804TF-6.282131.718111449.0161802329171.4666568152790.024647677259251161112123DRYL
2025-04-12 08:00:03FORECAST2025204-8125.71821.81223.765159.035137035210.0015748040.2315748043.513.741574804TF-6.282135.718111448.9679079587671.4016727666330.024647677259251161112123DRYL
2025-04-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025204-8122.49620.31821.407159.670474199520.0137795350.2337795353.533.763779535TF-9.504121.496111449.2080542541371.7252630369990.010091527729926161112123DRYL