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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 21, 2025

[ Sunday, April 20, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 22, 2025 ]

DAY 203 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/20/2025 12:00:01 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.81°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.31°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.120
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 199

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.08 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.30 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.71 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.01 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 152 in
SWE DAY: 110
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.68 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 67.71 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -82

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-20 00:00:01FORECAST2025203-8230.81221.30826.06151.924197940560.0803150040.3003150043.714.010315004TF-1.188198.812110445.676135632467.7089894472010.11991240868116161112123WETL
2025-04-19 20:00:01FORECAST2025203-8230.34421.0225.682152.142252495860.0724409840.3324409843.714.042440984TF-1.656198.344110445.7604227805767.8189947953440.11024459595202161112123WETL
2025-04-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025203-8230.90221.27226.087152.190494629360.0814961070.3414961073.714.051496107TF-1.098199.902110445.7790640644467.843336255380.12183791000653161122124WETL
2025-04-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025203-8231.06421.0226.042151.829540659190.0614173560.2914173563.714.001417356TF-0.936200.064110445.639532125567.661245462190.12535816224161122124WETL
2025-04-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025203-8231.58621.18226.384151.776703754650.0456693160.2756693163.713.985669316TF-0.414200.586110445.6190965258667.6345976008190.1371800585454161122124DRYL
2025-04-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025203-8231.40621.48826.447151.54178449270.0503937280.3103937283.714.020393728TF-0.594200.406110445.5282041687267.5161391015580.13302062489278161122124WETL
2025-04-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025203-8231.60421.0226.312150.896833599350.0704724790.3004724793.714.010472479TF-0.396195.604110445.2783878955367.1910988036590.13760082149322161112123WETL
2025-04-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025203-823221.36226.681153.068459005130.0775590970.3375590973.714.047559097TF0195110446.1179202712468.2865825904910.14708006625984161112123WETL
2025-04-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025203-8232.39621.48826.942152.862664217980.0649606650.2849606653.713.994960665TF0.396194.396110446.0385601911468.1826426547680.1569862747138161112123DRYL
2025-04-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025203-8231.76621.75826.762151.862557206940.0322834820.2222834823.713.932283482TF-0.234191.766110445.6523004622367.677897973350.14142720848602161112123DRYL
2025-04-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025203-8231.15421.18226.168151.769751309570.0350393890.2150393893.713.925039389TF-0.846192.154110445.6164073415967.6310913216960.12734415805634161112123DRYL
2025-04-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025203-8230.77621.50626.141152.141253288580.0413386050.2513386053.713.961338605TF-1.224189.776110445.7600366518967.8184906421840.1191482281931161112123DRYL
2025-04-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025203-8230.8320.98425.907154.122808565090.0948819410.3648819413.714.074881941TF-1.17185.83110446.5238561479668.8195108008370.12029578789217161112123WETL
2025-04-17 20:00:01FORECAST2025203-8231.3721.03826.204154.380586819440.0889764260.3289764263.714.038976426TF-0.63187.37110446.6229382614968.949911295830.13219923680916161112123WETL
2025-04-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025203-8230.8321.32626.078154.538086724290.1015748580.3615748583.714.071574858TF-1.17186.83110446.6834445099269.0296048859790.12029578789217161112123WETL
2025-04-17 12:00:01FORECAST2025203-8231.04622.126.573153.901905534710.0889764260.3289764263.714.038976426TF-0.954187.046110446.4388961147168.7077968168660.12496356391208161112123WETL
2025-04-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025203-8231.17221.63226.402153.788685639440.0889764260.2989764263.714.008976426TF-0.828187.172110446.3953328888768.6505515205580.12774396113694161112123WETL
2025-04-17 04:00:03FORECAST2025203-8230.70421.25425.979153.580898408660.090551230.290551233.714.00055123TF-1.296185.704110446.3153507167768.5455125366570.11763016397513161112123WETL
2025-04-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025203-8231.58621.63226.609155.666501554030.0460630170.2860630173.713.996063017TF-0.414176.586110447.1162368940169.6010203852920.1371800585454161112123DRYL
2025-04-16 20:00:02FORECAST2025203-8232.14421.52426.834155.855725994060.0385826980.2685826983.713.978582698TF0.144178.144110447.1886906926569.6969180442340.15063284229929161112123DRYL
2025-04-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025203-8231.56820.17425.871156.063897469120.0358267910.2758267913.713.985826791TF-0.432174.568110447.2683590689969.8024433309250.13676017280795161112123DRYL
2025-04-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025203-8230.93819.09425.016155.917088557930.1007874560.2907874563.714.000787456TF-1.062173.938110447.2121788643169.728020896170.12261414135956161112123WETL
2025-04-16 08:00:03FORECAST2025203-8230.14619.43624.791155.89047848850.1007874560.3007874563.714.010787456TF-1.854177.146110447.2019935941169.7145327623970.10632677444989161112123WETL
2025-04-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025203-8230.14619.0424.593155.828349594840.1047244660.3147244663.714.024724466TF-1.854175.146110447.1782104585369.6830425105250.10632677444989161112123WETL
2025-04-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025203-8229.33620.8425.088155.718633997250.0740157880.2640157883.713.974015788TF-2.664169.336110447.136201816169.627438557520.091342816375978161112123DRYL
2025-04-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025203-8230.50620.9325.718157.739564512040.0740157880.2640157883.713.974015788TF-1.494168.506110447.9081141720870.652830870910.11352601703944161112123DRYL
2025-04-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025203-8230.72220.71425.718157.996724414760.0755905920.3055905923.714.015590592TF-1.278168.722110448.0060548047470.7834891771280.11800839429097161112123WETL
2025-04-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025203-8230.95620.44425.7157.147217433310.1484252770.3184252773.714.028425277TF-1.044168.956110447.6822722894570.3520233845060.12300355135753161112123WETL
2025-04-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025203-8231.02821.27226.15157.088222928870.1488189780.3188189783.714.028818978TF-0.972171.028110447.6597610710670.3220763434170.1245698314771161112123WETL
2025-04-15 04:00:03FORECAST2025203-8232.1822.51427.347156.901169792470.1507874830.2907874833.714.000787483TF0.18173.18110447.5883627251170.2271376970640.15152986849805161112123WETL
2025-04-15 00:00:03FORECAST2025203-8232.55823.75628.157158.462073686980.2094489320.3594489323.714.069448932TF0.558163.558110448.1831228553471.0200270391640.16116214320119161112123WETL
2025-04-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025203-8232.97221.21827.095160.207420441710.1740158420.3040158423.714.014015842TF0.972160.972110448.8453758059771.9083598350650.17215907195089161112123WETL
2025-04-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025203-8231.60421.27226.438160.957355996370.2811025140.4411025143.714.151102514TF-0.396159.604110449.1290302227572.2906212058660.13760082149322161112123WETL
2025-04-14 12:00:03FORECAST2025203-8231.7321.48826.609160.814888973870.4877955390.6577955393.714.367795539TF-0.27170.73110449.0751852899872.2179760633290.14057074767847161113124.5WETL
2025-04-14 08:00:03FORECAST2025203-8231.80220.98426.393160.393994085730.4877955390.6677955393.714.377795539TF-0.198174.802110448.9159956189572.0034295462960.14228718869681161113124.5WETL
2025-04-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025203-8231.42423.91827.671159.530708466490.5330711540.6830711543.714.393071154TF-0.576177.424110448.5889531884571.5637135123930.13343262974736161113124.5WETL
2025-04-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025203-8232.9921.45227.221159.809187257850.1700788320.4800788323.714.190078832TF0.99171.99110448.694528943371.7055079974740.17264779243248161112123WETL
2025-04-13 20:00:03FORECAST2025203-8233.78224.83629.309160.272926116020.1728347390.4928347393.714.202834739TF1.782172.782110448.87017410971.9417362506550.19502025716857161113124.5WETL
2025-04-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025203-8234.2524.54829.399159.430497457950.1409449580.3609449583.714.070944958TF2.25172.25110448.5509433203271.5127000287890.20903044367489161112123WETL
2025-04-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025203-8233.18827.06830.128158.49690994010.2330709920.2730709923.713.983070992TF1.188169.188110448.1963698298371.0377396643980.17808184591307161112123DRYL
2025-04-13 08:00:03FORECAST2025203-8232.70225.80829.255157.033653474380.2334646930.2734646933.713.983464693TF0.702186.702110447.6389353669870.2943774580610.16493415490914161112123DRYL
2025-04-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025203-8230.84824.29627.572159.563276965990.2850395240.3950395243.714.105039524TF-1.152168.848110448.6013042829371.5802941626010.12068002711427161112123WETL
2025-04-13 00:00:03FORECAST2025203-8232.43223.19827.815158.367573714860.15748040.35748043.513.8674804TF0.432174.432110448.1471820106570.9719818821770.15790805488683161112123DRYL
2025-04-12 20:00:03FORECAST2025203-8232.0923.01827.554158.876717023260.15748040.35748043.523.8774804TF0.090000000000003168.09110448.3407207779871.2309018250470.14929392866293161112123DRYL
2025-04-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025203-8231.02822.60426.816160.059953284220.2673229790.5073229793.524.027322979TF-0.972167.028110448.7895344676571.8332319213410.1245698314771161113124.5WETL
2025-04-12 12:00:03FORECAST2025203-8229.9320.60625.268159.145883591840.2000001080.2300001083.513.740000108TF-2.07153.93110448.4429369815571.367847446450.10216821351861161112123DRYL
2025-04-12 08:00:03FORECAST2025203-8229.9320.60625.268159.01825553870.2000001080.2300001083.513.740000108TF-2.07157.93110448.3944788459971.3029078192760.10216821351861161112123DRYL
2025-04-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025203-8228.77819.90424.341159.486649180810.2051182210.2151182213.533.745118221TF-3.222146.778110448.5722427667471.5412839143860.081968322419865161112123DRYL
2025-04-12 00:00:04FORECAST2025203-8223.48620.0321.758163.74601793610.1960630980.4060630983.483.886063098TF-8.514139.486110450.1790817000473.7150319865130.025208871875548161112123DRYL
2025-04-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025203-8223.43219.63421.533163.249785523240.1960630980.4060630983.53.906063098TF-8.568148.432110449.9927723841473.4612235787210.024871291229705161112123DRYL
2025-04-11 16:00:03FORECAST2025203-8223.5418.84221.191162.197318898180.1988190050.2988190053.53.798819005TF-8.46154.54110449.596848166272.9234033576280.025550273968357161112123DRYL
2025-04-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025203-8221.59618.48220.039159.237953194650.023622060.223622063.53.72362206TF-10.404162.596110448.4778844442171.4147003719640.015448904052691161112123DRYL
2025-04-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025203-8221.59618.48220.039159.924522722530.023622060.223622063.53.72362206TF-10.404155.596110448.7382325945871.7642476750430.015448904052691161112123DRYL
2025-04-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025203-8222.49620.19221.344158.6558381376700.093.543.63FF-9.504154.496110448.2567896393571.1185566611310.019595253884237161111121.5DRYL