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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 19, 2025

[ Friday, April 18, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, April 20, 2025 ]

DAY 201 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/20/2025 12:00:01 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.38°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.89°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.14°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.355
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 203

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.02 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.98 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 151 in
SWE DAY: 108
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.69 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 67.09 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -83

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-20 00:00:01FORECAST2025201-8337.38226.88832.135150.867531380920.0248031630.0248031633.984.004803163TF5.382203.382109444.6859195071167.088666915890.35519398618302162121122.5WETL
2025-04-19 12:00:01FORECAST2025201-8337.70626.27631.991150.845361417220.0255905650.0255905653.984.005590565TF5.706203.706109444.6772915176667.0775067530130.36705480954768162121122.5WETL
2025-04-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025201-8337.83226.31232.072150.820060099260.0208661530.0208661533.984.000866153TF5.832203.832109444.6674442906167.0647706720940.37170256153264162121122.5WETL
2025-04-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025201-8337.72426.34832.036150.477279367540.0283464720.0283464723.984.008346472TF5.724203.724109444.5339722688466.8922627334610.36771760119519162121122.5WETL
2025-04-19 00:00:01FORECAST2025201-8438.1226.65432.387149.759906132810.0244094620.0244094623.984.004409462TF6.12199.12108443.6693004573666.4438727905050.38239545196125162121122.5WETL
2025-04-18 20:00:01FORECAST2025201-8437.88626.63632.261151.858211141270.0389763990.0389763993.984.018976399TF5.886196.886108444.489116377767.4993220848820.37370023758063162111122WETL
2025-04-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025201-8437.72426.72632.225151.831087443440.0303149770.0303149773.984.010314977TF5.724196.724108444.4785468946667.4856611202970.36771760119519162111122WETL
2025-04-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025201-8436.57225.9731.271151.040140700250.0220472560.0220472563.984.002047256TF4.572195.572108444.1700126504467.0875012055570.32616997947896162111122WETL
2025-04-18 08:00:01FORECAST2025201-8437.2225.71831.469151.01723799960.0271653690.0271653693.984.007165369TF5.22196.22108444.1610694773467.0759779394140.34931491342251162111122WETL
2025-04-18 04:00:02FORECAST2025201-8436.48225.35830.92151.243379191080.0405512030.0405512033.984.020551203TF4.482195.482108444.2493515508767.1897731319990.32300520328267162111122WETL
2025-04-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025201-8436.01425.08830.551152.679420439290.047244120.047244123.984.02724412TF4.014191.014108444.8087782828367.9131464745290.30675820936575162111122WETL
2025-04-17 20:00:01FORECAST2025201-8436.44625.53830.992153.08110260060.0389763990.0389763993.984.018976399TF4.446191.446108444.9648934218468.1157165035750.32174285291485162111122WETL
2025-04-17 16:00:01FORECAST2025201-8436.15825.53830.848153.080351128490.0401575020.0401575023.984.020157502TF4.158191.158108444.9646015083368.1153374386450.31171896810386162111122WETL
2025-04-17 12:00:01FORECAST2025201-8435.8726.0630.965152.648798745520.0476378210.0476378213.984.027637821TF3.87190.87108444.7968705219767.8977079709450.30183256250758162111122WETL
2025-04-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025201-8435.65426.631.127152.688758754150.0547244390.0547244393.984.034724439TF3.654190.654108444.812409459467.9178546787990.29451149284346162111122WETL
2025-04-17 04:00:03FORECAST2025201-8435.61825.84430.731152.472035344290.0519685320.0519685323.984.031968532TF3.618189.618108444.7281149922767.8086008677010.29329931785629162111122WETL
2025-04-17 00:00:01FORECAST2025201-8434.68225.5230.101154.645485530160.0681102730.0681102733.984.048110273TF2.682180.682108445.5713803140868.9056024470150.26262468752418162111122WETL
2025-04-16 20:00:01FORECAST2025201-8434.5224.54829.534154.95325775930.0811024060.0811024063.984.061102406TF2.52180.52108445.6904153785569.0611818150050.25748702008523162111122WETL
2025-04-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025201-8433.15223.8128.481155.132302526950.0909449310.0909449313.984.070944931TF1.152179.152108445.7596205584869.1517163107780.21626682938274161112123WETL
2025-04-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025201-8433.42223.23428.328154.603894810320.0401575020.0401575023.984.020157502TF1.422179.422108445.5552874034268.8845827859020.22408680894825161111121.5WETL
2025-04-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025201-8433.8922.85628.373154.561004302810.0519685320.0519685323.984.031968532TF1.89182.89108445.5386897785768.8629073479330.23801398570116161111121.5WETL
2025-04-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025201-8433.72823.23428.481154.435559849880.0622047580.0622047583.984.042204758TF1.728181.728108445.4901353252868.799518456560.23314016287436161111121.5WETL
2025-04-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025201-8433.63823.19828.418154.500719406510.0507874290.0507874293.984.030787429TF1.638176.638108445.5153578743868.8324432982410.23045656885894161111121.5WETL
2025-04-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025201-8433.49423.07228.283156.516361048570.0527559340.0527559343.984.032755934TF1.494175.494108446.2935323420369.8522396416850.22619889518606161111121.5WETL
2025-04-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025201-8433.36823.4528.409156.600893149390.0618110570.0618110573.984.041811057TF1.368175.368108446.3260805052269.8950628429840.2225101097996161111121.5WETL
2025-04-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025201-8433.33222.78428.058155.430610011280.0216535550.0216535553.984.001653555TF1.332176.332108445.8748538159869.3026005173090.22146249470637161111121.5WETL
2025-04-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025201-8432.48622.7327.608155.42658018420.0220472560.0220472563.984.002047256TF0.486176.486108445.8732977149969.3005618592930.19766587241652161111121.5WETL
2025-04-15 04:00:03FORECAST2025201-8433.47623.66628.571155.342207488880.0149606380.0149606383.983.994960638TF1.476176.476108445.8407138909669.257880684240.22566982349507161111121.5DRYL
2025-04-15 00:00:03FORECAST2025201-8434.86226.11430.488156.565800202320.0322834820.0322834823.984.012283482TF2.862166.862108446.312569197269.8772845367130.26839402126114162111122WETL
2025-04-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025201-8436.19425.68230.938158.42418690460.0240157610.0240157613.984.004015761TF4.194166.194108447.0264215590170.819797360360.31296455802529162111122WETL
2025-04-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025201-8435.07825.5230.299158.421909426120.0267716680.0267716683.984.006771668TF3.078166.078108447.0255487837270.8186410005770.27540024093223162111122WETL
2025-04-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025201-8438.5726.0632.315156.6772880.0035433090.0035433093.983.983543309TF6.57174.57108446.3554894978469.9337675784340.39928115286402162111122DRYL
2025-04-14 08:00:03FORECAST2025201-8440.22625.64632.936156.3294440.0027559070.0027559073.983.982755907TF8.226179.226108446.2215371557969.757564804390.4628184346687162111122DRYL
2025-04-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025201-8441.4527.12234.286155.372294683330.0027559070.0027559073.983.982755907TF9.45182.45108445.8523340417169.2731002299810.5104945734955163111122.5DRYL
2025-04-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025201-8443.62829.04836.338156.59784003.983.98TF11.628175.628108446.32490504569.8935160682520.59452723763387163111122.5DRYL
2025-04-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025201-8441.2728.59834.934157.3115352003.983.98TF9.27173.27108446.5994293239470.2552418463940.50347642522495163111122.5DRYL
2025-04-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025201-8441.6330.86636.248157.3362336003.983.98TF9.63170.63108446.6089207065470.2677654761280.51750947389408163111122.5DRYL
2025-04-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025201-8441.8130.63236.221156.878753748840.0102362260.0102362263.983.990236226TF9.81169.81108446.4330184713370.0358555701150.52451895769846163111122.5DRYL
2025-04-13 08:00:03FORECAST2025201-8446.99436.69841.846155.40365760.0114173290.0114173293.983.991417329TF14.994183.994108445.864445951369.2889656946290.71506401870913164111123DRYL
2025-04-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025201-8445.42834.28639.857156.921957921760.0114173290.0114173293.983.991417329TF13.428171.428108446.4496393337270.0577515177110.66098640687444163111122.5DRYL
2025-04-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025201-8447.49832.77440.136155.62786458078003.783.78TF15.498174.498108445.9510033810169.4024023638450.73155112010901164111123DRYL
2025-04-12 20:00:03FORECAST2025201-8442.18829.42635.807156.1428776003.793.79TF10.188169.188108446.1496429364569.663089088310.53921162635835163111122.5DRYL
2025-04-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025201-8442.85429.60636.23156.1086344003.793.79TF10.854169.854108446.1364434611569.6457509447930.56495674281847163111122.5DRYL
2025-04-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025201-8440.06429.28234.673157.06313240965003.783.78TF8.064159.064108446.5039371528570.1293070024670.45653341638848162111122DRYL
2025-04-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025201-8441.5428.6735.105156.93550435651003.783.78TF9.54162.54108446.4548503396470.064617110460.51400256531892163111122.5DRYL
2025-04-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025201-8440.29828.34634.322157.46402957641003.83.8TF8.298154.298108446.6580220905670.3325720010110.46561485287932162111122DRYL
2025-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025201-8433.7124.63829.174159.857197310970.0267716680.0267716683.753.776771668TF1.71150.71108447.5745800037471.548017947030.23260206254207161111121.5DRYL
2025-04-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025201-8434.12424.85429.489159.341104282380.0267716680.0267716683.773.796771668TF2.124159.124108447.3773927586971.2856077931430.24515131034455161111121.5DRYL
2025-04-11 16:00:03FORECAST2025201-8436.91425.1631.037158.90177033527003.773.77TF4.914163.914108447.2093295890271.0623541821470.33830898593087162111122DRYL
2025-04-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025201-8436.3224.36830.344157.327881926250.0070866180.0070866183.773.777086618TF4.32174.32108446.6057112968170.2635306144920.31734087250754162111122DRYL
2025-04-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025201-8436.3224.36830.344158.014451454130.0070866180.0070866183.773.777086618TF4.32167.32108446.8693214597470.6118107021390.31734087250754162111122DRYL
2025-04-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025201-8435.31224.09829.705158.450314149930.0610236550.0610236553.813.871023655TF3.312164.312108447.0364336807270.8330633531740.28309034953744162111122DRYL
2025-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025201-8433.74622.35228.049164.846400228140.2299213840.2399213843.84.039921384TF1.746173.746108449.4675703595874.0931109930630.23367895242494161112123WETL
2025-04-10 20:00:03FORECAST2025201-8433.76422.44228.103165.48386443470.240157610.250157613.954.20015761TF1.764173.764108449.7077116105874.4193699834050.23421843041143161112123WETL
2025-04-10 16:00:03FORECAST2025201-8434.4322.26228.346165.675950348220.2181103540.2181103543.924.138110354TF2.43167.43108449.7799967290374.5177284056990.25465545671292162112124WETL
2025-04-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025201-8436.6820.89428.787165.409432612510.1374016490.2874016493.974.257401649TF4.68158.68108449.67969219874.3812627438380.32998427189423162112124WETL
2025-04-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025201-8437.27424.6230.947165.015872731680.1405512570.2905512574.014.300551257TF5.274159.274108449.5314508568574.1798246834790.35127067554434162112124WETL
2025-04-10 04:00:05FORECAST2025201-8437.6725.8831.775165.179711998340.2846458230.3746458233.964.334645823TF5.67161.67108449.5931818407274.2636722928660.36573041553356162112124WETL
2025-04-10 00:00:03FORECAST2025201-8426.31222.35224.332166.853860948470.0555118410.75551184144.755511841TF-5.688106.312108450.2224936370575.1213613491910.072934934584462161113124.5WETL
2025-04-09 20:00:03FORECAST2025201-8426.31222.35224.332167.132194644420.0555118410.7555118413.954.705511841TF-5.688102.312108450.3268599513375.2641164109940.072934934584462161113124.5WETL
2025-04-09 16:00:03FORECAST2025201-8449.5531.44240.496165.1481954761400.523.964.48TF17.55134.55108449.5813091130874.2475419198270.7933609374035164113129WETL
2025-04-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025201-8446.439.4742.935163.57498235437004.034.03TF14.4150.4108448.9874476263473.4431138228130.69503478392617163111122.5WETL
2025-04-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025201-8446.439.4742.935162.8276110698004.054.05TF14.4158.4108448.7044950110673.0614809989340.69503478392617163111122.5WETL
2025-04-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025201-8428.68826.70827.698164.290363485930.015748040.015748044.124.13574804TF-3.312124.688108449.2577861849373.8087249912080.11093590597407161111121.5WETL