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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 18, 2025

[ Thursday, April 17, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, April 19, 2025 ]

DAY 200 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/19/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.26°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.12°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.69°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.916
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 197

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.21 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 151 in
SWE DAY: 107
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.42 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 66.79 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -85

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-19 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025200-8554.2600635.1199444.69150.62469875004.214.21TF22.26006197.26006107443.42180445985 66.7902757159470.9156041162171216 5111123.5WETL
2025-04-19 00:00:01FORECAST2025200-8449.29831.3740.334149.9819536004.214.21TF17.298192.298108443.7562621337766.5554311170570.80486423885799164111123WETL
2025-04-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025200-8446.8530.70438.777151.156712004.214.21TF14.85189.85108444.2155239936267.1461580262330.72718192384722164111123WETL
2025-04-18 08:00:01FORECAST2025200-8447.15630.61438.885151.139004.214.21TF15.156190.156108444.2086098071267.1372450776380.73766385943265164111123WETL
2025-04-18 04:00:02FORECAST2025200-8446.97631.1939.083151.30384945004.214.21TF14.976189.976108444.2729496265867.2202074850070.73152303404635164111123WETL
2025-04-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025200-8546.86831.22639.047152.6842936004.214.21TF14.868185.868107444.2278270598167.826611972090.72780420546827164111123WETL
2025-04-17 20:00:01FORECAST2025200-8546.99431.53239.263153.1479544004.214.21TF14.994185.994107444.4087000091268.0602833239610.73214034928899164111123WETL
2025-04-17 16:00:01FORECAST2025200-8547.15631.35239.254153.1402792004.214.21TF15.156186.156107444.4057076658368.0564141500190.73766385943265164111123WETL
2025-04-17 12:00:01FORECAST2025200-8546.90431.49639.2152.6611696004.214.21TF14.904185.904107444.2188008658167.8149616984830.72904665114857164111123WETL
2025-04-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025200-8546.74232.1839.461152.6854744004.214.21TF14.742185.742107444.2282879576267.8272068887090.72343349850752164111123WETL
2025-04-17 04:00:02FORECAST2025200-8546.61631.51439.065152.47021468333004.214.21TF14.616184.616107444.1442434874967.7187681549050.71902870825515164111123WETL
2025-04-17 00:00:01FORECAST2025200-8546.29230.97438.633154.4937912004.214.21TF14.292177.292107444.932502778368.7393091823240.70754910821051164111123WETL
2025-04-16 20:00:01FORECAST2025200-8546.45430.8338.642154.7790528004.214.21TF14.454177.454107445.0432974471468.8833800338580.71331612391012164111123WETL
2025-04-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025200-8546.25630.81238.534154.8112296004.214.21TF14.256177.256107445.0557897730968.8996340553720.70626027028959164111123WETL
2025-04-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025200-8545.60830.77638.192154.5080592004.214.21TF13.608176.608107444.9380463300868.7465140027010.68262602395529163111122.5WETL
2025-04-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025200-8547.31831.35239.335154.3895856004.214.21TF15.318180.318107444.8920096422668.686693005420.74312852031324164111123WETL
2025-04-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025200-8547.10230.79438.948154.21670451667004.214.21TF15.102179.102107444.8248063329468.599415719930.73582918225011164111123WETL
2025-04-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025200-8546.2230.52438.372154.2936064004.214.21TF14.22174.22107444.8547037104468.6382365594880.70496881282122164111123WETL
2025-04-15 20:00:01FORECAST2025200-8546.27430.79438.534156.3079136004.214.21TF14.274173.274107445.6357358089969.6563920899040.70690501748928164111123WETL
2025-04-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025200-8546.11230.52438.318156.341468004.214.21TF14.112173.112107445.648712461569.6733739185410.70107885157598164111123WETL
2025-04-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025200-8545.87830.14638.012155.354516004.214.21TF13.878173.878107445.266561291969.1741711204880.69257180327701163111122.5WETL
2025-04-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025200-8547.35430.8339.092155.3428064004.214.21TF15.354175.354107445.2620215420569.1682520096790.74433480563657164111123WETL
2025-04-15 04:00:03FORECAST2025200-8544.52830.12837.328155.3122521004.214.21TF12.528173.528107445.2501751660469.1528074529570.64157149530304163111122.5WETL
2025-04-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025200-8545.53630.30837.922156.4878088004.214.21TF13.536162.536107445.7052946059669.7474449234450.67995101093316163111122.5WETL
2025-04-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025200-8545.08629.46237.274158.4163112004.214.21TF13.086161.086107446.4489816328670.7248008092740.66302438808161163111122.5WETL
2025-04-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025200-8544.70829.46237.085158.3821664004.214.21TF12.708161.708107446.4358460508470.7074764561480.64854466719111163111122.5WETL
2025-04-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025200-8548.12831.26239.695156.9748496004.214.21TF16.128167.128107445.8934557753369.9940581579570.76953894435427164111123WETL
2025-04-14 08:00:03FORECAST2025200-8548.75831.87440.316156.8326616004.214.21TF16.758169.758107445.8385475541369.9220460567930.78898626959281164111123WETL
2025-04-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025200-8550.70234.19642.449155.97519148333004.214.21TF18.702171.702107445.5070007305269.4880397461080.8426279089193164111123WETL
2025-04-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025200-8549.53231.22640.379157.3826784004.214.21TF17.532162.532107446.0508355697370.2006752045220.81151345460733164111123WETL
2025-04-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025200-8547.82230.5639.191157.8602136004.214.21TF15.822162.822107446.2349077485770.4427378529660.75974373430872164111123WETL
2025-04-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025200-8547.53429.3938.462157.9295856004.214.21TF15.534159.534107446.2616295236370.4779142198470.75032163367525164111123WETL
2025-04-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025200-8547.82229.87638.849157.5294912004.214.21TF15.822158.822107446.107450251770.2750796586790.75974373430872164111123WETL
2025-04-13 08:00:03FORECAST2025200-8551.24232.66641.954156.6867936004.214.21TF19.242168.242107445.7821976299669.84818319060.85578201950326165111123.5WETL
2025-04-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025200-8548.59631.98240.289157.94393145004.214.21TF16.596156.596107446.2671548915170.4851889205710.78407940840861164111123WETL
2025-04-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025200-8548.75832.7240.739156.7688125807800.023.994.01TF16.758157.758107445.8138847588469.8897133456690.78898626959281164111123WETL
2025-04-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025200-8547.06631.22639.146156.803830400.0244.02TF15.066158.066107445.8274114964569.907445819960.73460244831924164111123WETL
2025-04-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025200-8546.52631.20838.867156.779033600.0244.02TF14.526157.526107445.8178330743669.8948890310440.71586183597332164111123WETL
2025-04-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025200-8545.26628.95837.112157.4885156096500.0144.01TF13.266150.266107446.0916511646370.2543119677740.66983713378926163111122.5WETL
2025-04-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025200-8544.09629.22836.662157.3970003565100.0144.01TF12.096152.096107446.0563594031670.2079329600020.62464615884302163111122.5WETL
2025-04-12 04:00:03FORECAST2025200-8543.75428.88636.32157.8622543764100.0344.03TF11.754144.754107446.2356939134770.4437726244040.61107281803192163111122.5WETL
2025-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025200-8543.17830.93837.058159.71584832769003.983.98TF11.178148.178107446.9480706794271.3846902669890.58791127386648163111122.5DRYL
2025-04-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025200-8547.82231.4639.641159.2075111490044TF15.822155.822107446.7530392227271.1264394728990.75974373430872164111123WETL
2025-04-11 16:00:03FORECAST2025200-8548.75832.6340.694159.051436735270044TF16.758157.758107446.6931083041771.0471806555240.78898626959281164111123WETL
2025-04-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025200-8552.39437.0444.717157.503448710530044TF20.394169.394107446.0974091576770.2618804031680.88131267268705165111123.5WETL
2025-04-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025200-8550.07237.0443.556158.190018238420044TF18.072162.072107446.3619049694370.6099978880480.82631738471134164111123WETL
2025-04-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025200-8547.67834.73641.207158.223956912110.0003937010.0003937014.044.040393701TF15.678159.678107446.3749676313770.627213645150.75505702351224164111123WETL
2025-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025200-8549.08234.80841.945163.111711511530.0055118140.0055118144.034.035511814TF17.082171.082107448.2445061765573.11392857810.79860193216508164111123WETL
2025-04-10 20:00:03FORECAST2025200-8549.11834.82641.972163.665658110390.0055118140.0055118144.184.185511814TF17.118171.118107448.4549270337973.3966707658330.79965391702909164111123WETL
2025-04-10 16:00:03FORECAST2025200-8547.40835.58241.495164.00784170413004.154.15TF15.408164.408107448.5847602473.5714183483260.74613867944687164111123WETL
2025-04-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025200-8544.65434.48439.569164.711145459010.0480315220.1480315224.24.348031522TF12.654152.654107448.8512576155273.9308047825690.64645783012756163112125WETL
2025-04-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025200-8545.33835.9640.649164.448717319020.0476378210.1476378214.244.387637821TF13.338153.338107448.7518734521273.796669983710.67254671157221163112125WETL
2025-04-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025200-8545.6836.66241.171164.24211870110.0090551230.0890551234.194.279055123TF13.68154.68107448.6735858689173.6911003483290.68529153967912163111122.5WETL
2025-04-10 00:00:03FORECAST2025200-8535.02427.33831.181166.201082744270.405512030.705512034.224.92551203TF3.024111.024107449.4142577509174.6931362389110.26553329958554162113126WETL
2025-04-09 20:00:03FORECAST2025200-8535.02427.33831.181166.479416440210.405512030.705512034.174.87551203TF3.024107.024107449.5191952598374.8356933055280.26553329958554162113126WETL
2025-04-09 16:00:03FORECAST2025200-8542.74633.99838.372165.345881076140.2732284940.5532284944.164.713228494TF10.746115.746107449.0913646353474.2554073693170.5703320559179163113127.5WETL
2025-04-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025200-8563.2337.8550.54164.02634315437004.264.26TF31.23135.23107448.5917769482773.5808687419470.98965957123818165111123.5WETL
2025-04-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025200-8563.01438.89450.954163.2789718698004.284.28TF31.014143.014107448.3080725088473.1992811601770.98902220784529165111123.5WETL
2025-04-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025200-8550.25229.96640.109164.12749829228004.354.35TF18.252127.252107448.6301343868873.6325416154460.83108340254139164111123WETL
2025-04-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025200-8536.84221.84829.345165.09900511044004.54.5TF4.842109.842107448.9980226927574.1291268431250.33099176826694162111122WETL
2025-04-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025200-8536.8621.84829.354155.6322989808800.014.744.75TF4.86110.86107445.3742166961269.3146132512250.33167124186302162111122WETL
2025-04-08 16:00:05FORECAST2025200-8538.42633.13435.78156.2197577736500.024.934.95TF6.426110.426107445.6016376172169.6117798921030.39268166764417162111122WETL
2025-04-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025200-8532.7227.12229.921159.7065344017700.014.74.71TF0.72111.72107446.9444995112671.3799570868750.19318838742943161111121.5WETL
2025-04-08 08:00:04FORECAST2025200-8532.7227.12229.921158.6590975941900.014.554.56TF0.72122.72107446.5423492675270.8480061723750.19318838742943161111121.5WETL
2025-04-08 04:00:09FORECAST2025200-8529.06627.24828.157159.17473616829004.664.66TF-2.934116.066107446.740455948671.1097942113210.10623271836042161111121.5WETL