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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 17, 2025

[ Wednesday, April 16, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, April 18, 2025 ]

DAY 199 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/18/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.28°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.24°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.76°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.710
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 173

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.71 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.71 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 152 in
SWE DAY: 106
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.43 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 67.47 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -86

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-18 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025199-8647.2800230.2399638.75999152.15028625004.714.71TF15.28002173.28002106443.43338869294 67.4685170224390.7097051078362916 4111123WETL
2025-04-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025199-8542.96226.04234.502153.5015056004.714.71TF10.962168.962107444.5464764014768.23855343680.54389976576059163111122.5WETL
2025-04-17 12:00:01FORECAST2025199-8542.54826.09634.322153.5234488004.714.71TF10.548168.548107444.5550234335668.2496203788850.52705210897722163111122.5WETL
2025-04-17 08:00:01FORECAST2025199-8542.6225.75434.187153.5238424004.714.71TF10.62168.62107444.555176739268.2498188918130.52998647142182163111122.5WETL
2025-04-17 04:00:02FORECAST2025199-8541.52223.932.711153.26853388333004.714.71TF9.522167.522107444.4557028811268.1210739566750.48515437714604162111122WETL
2025-04-17 00:00:01FORECAST2025199-8642.42223.64833.035155.2576704004.714.71TF10.422161.422106444.6477572647369.0349749415060.52191353610349163111122.5WETL
2025-04-16 20:00:01FORECAST2025199-8642.36823.77433.071155.5528704004.714.71TF10.368161.368106444.7626239529969.1841028025230.51971012483275163111122.5WETL
2025-04-16 16:00:01FORECAST2025199-8642.29624.7133.503155.5582824004.714.71TF10.296161.296106444.7647290383969.1868373213140.51677131770025163111122.5WETL
2025-04-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025199-8642.29625.80834.052155.2430088004.714.71TF10.296161.296106444.6420499738369.0275696769370.51677131770025163111122.5WETL
2025-04-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025199-8643.05226.00634.529155.191644004.714.71TF11.052163.052106444.6220536269969.0016274610290.54755293270259163111122.5WETL
2025-04-16 04:00:02FORECAST2025199-8642.13425.98834.061155.01768051667004.714.71TF10.134162.134106444.5543101569968.9137780242240.51015591232877163111122.5WETL
2025-04-16 00:00:01FORECAST2025199-8642.4425.9734.205155.0572888004.714.71TF10.44158.44106444.5697367301968.9337780599140.52264786104226163111122.5WETL
2025-04-15 20:00:01FORECAST2025199-8642.49425.9734.232157.078976004.714.71TF10.494157.494106445.3550826051469.9559203320110.52485036457419163111122.5WETL
2025-04-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025199-8642.5326.09634.313157.0862576004.714.71TF10.53156.53106445.3579039375769.9596064221330.52631828266477163111122.5WETL
2025-04-15 12:00:01FORECAST2025199-8642.78226.47434.628156.0809048004.714.71TF10.782157.782106444.9678752582369.4509885772380.53658259495334163111122.5WETL
2025-04-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025199-8643.23226.8735.051156.1388624004.714.71TF11.232158.232106444.9903870916269.4802928194210.5548468984936163111122.5WETL
2025-04-15 04:00:03FORECAST2025199-8642.6226.6934.655156.0003633004.714.71TF10.62158.62106444.936585905769.4102690467510.52998647142182163111122.5WETL
2025-04-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025199-8642.15227.28434.718157.1962888004.714.71TF10.152147.152106445.4005303309970.0153103975840.51089112869124163111122.5WETL
2025-04-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025199-8641.64826.58234.115159.0705728004.714.71TF9.648145.648106446.1248063221370.965328481950.49030021162204162111122WETL
2025-04-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025199-8642.7126.74434.727159.038888004.714.71TF10.71146.71106446.1125910552970.9492504042320.53365211721806163111122.5WETL
2025-04-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025199-8643.48427.98635.735157.9573736004.714.71TF11.484149.484106445.6950507344970.4008196405380.56502679460273163111122.5WETL
2025-04-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025199-8643.50228.4935.996157.8700928004.714.71TF11.502150.502106445.661304186870.356591449340.56575236564661163111122.5WETL
2025-04-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025199-8643.28628.56235.924157.25163628333004.714.71TF11.286151.286106445.4219675972270.0433332412040.55703158725026163111122.5WETL
2025-04-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025199-8641.43227.0534.241158.422668004.714.71TF9.432143.432106445.8748275599270.6366797760830.48148024412157162111122WETL
2025-04-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025199-8641.21627.39234.304158.7500448004.714.71TF9.216145.216106446.0011895820570.8027088270040.47266933271699162111122WETL
2025-04-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025199-8640.5527.48234.016158.7673632004.714.71TF8.55141.55106446.0078712717670.8114936882630.44560508372046162111122WETL
2025-04-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025199-8640.3727.33833.854158.409876004.714.71TF8.37141.37106445.8698879264270.6301936585580.43832841844167162111122WETL
2025-04-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025199-8640.85626.5133.683158.0132256004.714.71TF8.856146.856106445.7166416180670.4291242456690.4580162672835162111122WETL
2025-04-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025199-8641.68427.08634.385158.97388425004.714.71TF9.684137.684106446.0875274392370.9162669524930.49177078413477162111122WETL
2025-04-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025199-8643.6128.61636.113157.8774853807800.024.494.51TF11.61138.61106445.6641627695870.3603373423930.57010105841392163111122.5WETL
2025-04-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025199-8643.35829.01236.185157.709208800.024.54.52TF11.358141.358106445.5990798371770.2750783231280.55994179942514163111122.5WETL
2025-04-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025199-8642.54828.27435.411157.657253600.024.54.52TF10.548140.548106445.5789799360370.2487582386050.52705210897722163111122.5WETL
2025-04-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025199-8640.98227.62634.304158.2433420096500.014.54.51TF8.982134.982106445.8055661431570.5457626729950.46313938159217162111122WETL
2025-04-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025199-8642.49427.98635.24158.0603147565100.014.54.51TF10.494138.494106445.7348426419570.4529895259290.52485036457419163111122.5WETL
2025-04-12 04:00:03FORECAST2025199-8639.43427.78833.611158.4956551764100.034.54.53TF7.434131.434106445.9030085033770.6736894778760.40087855844715162111122WETL
2025-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025199-8643.14228.65235.897160.29571952769004.484.48TF11.142135.142106446.5963772871571.5874876357040.55120207868757163111122.5WETL
2025-04-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025199-8646.5829.69638.138160.152249549004.54.5TF14.58137.58106446.5412301196571.5145825200380.68467881108879163111122.5WETL
2025-04-11 16:00:03FORECAST2025199-8647.60630.27238.939160.11956873527004.54.5TF15.606138.606106446.5286654176471.4979773346110.72103312860226164111123WETL
2025-04-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025199-8651.09834.46642.782159.19779831053004.54.5TF19.098147.098106446.1738449765371.0298937840090.82733186965274164111123WETL
2025-04-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025199-8649.4632.7241.09159.64997903842004.54.5TF17.46142.46106446.3480083544371.2594501776240.78107703812732164111123WETL
2025-04-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025199-8649.11832.57640.847159.48652731211004.544.54TF17.118142.118106446.2850758475471.1764569381450.77059221059507164111123WETL
2025-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025199-8652.4334.89843.664164.54018431153004.534.53TF20.43152.43106448.2188112522873.7500058153470.85997445339396165111123.5WETL
2025-04-10 20:00:03FORECAST2025199-8656.71433.2644.987165.16015731039004.684.68TF24.714151.714106448.45433343274.0667882561560.93571637549584165111123.5WETL
2025-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025199-8655.09432.91844.006165.36330170413004.654.65TF23.094147.094106448.5314255263474.1706374430930.91204446438233165111123.5WETL
2025-04-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025199-8648.88434.93441.909165.714038259010.098425250.098425254.74.79842525TF16.884137.884106448.664434379574.3499952442220.76325946088669164112126WETL
2025-04-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025199-8649.24434.55641.9165.632764519020.0976378480.0976378484.744.837637848TF17.244138.244106448.6336237107174.3084273513910.77448736507018164112126WETL
2025-04-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025199-8646.52635.2440.883165.42380430110.0830709110.0830709114.694.773070911TF14.526138.526106448.5543782167774.2015716805310.68271055651044163111122.5WETL
2025-04-10 00:00:03FORECAST2025199-8635.99627.60831.802166.036104067360.2862206270.2962206274.725.016220627TF3.996105.996106448.7864661884274.5147564040820.2731854507091162112124WETL
2025-04-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025199-8635.99627.80631.901166.31443776330.2862206270.2962206274.674.966220627TF3.996101.996106448.8918473687874.6571952116670.2731854507091162112124WETL
2025-04-09 16:00:03FORECAST2025199-8638.44426.38432.414166.054459476140.2507875370.2807875374.664.940787537TF6.444103.444106448.7934181076374.5241484603110.36224286089264162112124WETL
2025-04-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025199-8644.45628.7636.608166.0369503543700.014.754.76TF12.456102.456106448.7867867179174.515189425980.60383214639352163111122.5WETL
2025-04-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025199-8647.37229.78638.579165.513143869800.014.774.78TF15.372110.372106448.588264254474.2472539198440.71292319051314164111123WETL
2025-04-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025199-8643.6129.40836.509165.3734390922800.014.844.85TF11.61106.61106448.5352715631574.1758204125860.57010105841392163111122.5WETL
2025-04-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025199-8645.03231.35238.192165.2161011104400.024.985TF13.032103.032106448.4755677418574.0953847455980.62637705419357163111122.5WETL
2025-04-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025199-8644.81631.11837.967155.7539213808800.065.195.25TF12.816103.816106444.8408065744969.285700014210.61796867735393163111122.5WETL
2025-04-08 16:00:05FORECAST2025199-8646.38230.4738.426156.4159673736500.175.285.45TF14.382102.382106445.09797414169.6204302013170.67743669614286163112125WETL
2025-04-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025199-8643.46633.02638.246159.710470401770.0098425250.0098425255.25.209842525TF11.466109.466106446.3712922355771.2901690567870.56430100454245163111122.5WETL
2025-04-08 08:00:04FORECAST2025199-8643.50233.33238.417158.663033594190.0106299270.0106299275.055.060629927TF11.502119.502106445.9676149494670.7585746726480.56575236564661163111122.5WETL
2025-04-08 04:00:09FORECAST2025199-8643.68230.09236.887159.17473616829005.165.16TF11.682116.682106446.1649569255871.0181893061660.5729955036683163111122.5WETL
2025-04-08 00:00:07FORECAST2025199-8639.90231.31635.609169.08810069397005.865.86TF7.902114.902106449.9379360492276.0791510367280.41951235829687162111122WETL
2025-04-07 20:00:03FORECAST2025199-8633.76431.31632.54163.20844962928005.965.96TF1.76487.764106447.71164145773.0703228831760.20274352726562161111121.5WETL
2025-04-07 16:00:03FORECAST2025199-8636.84229.53433.188162.22647420945005.955.95TF4.84298.842106447.3365714562172.5698347722830.30273434951705162111122WETL
2025-04-07 12:00:03FORECAST2025199-8636.5932.93634.763166.140014561130.0976378480.2276378485.465.687637848TF4.5996.59106448.8258169259774.5679277594930.29378390790424162112124WETL
2025-04-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025199-8636.5932.93634.763166.880419837750.0976378480.2276378485.595.817637848TF4.5991.59106449.1059067626974.9469822721690.29378390790424162112124WETL
2025-04-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025199-8628.32827.42827.878167.3436873524500.385.355.73TF-3.67271.328106449.2808897245575.1843207434970.082377512348271161112123WETL