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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 16, 2025

[ Tuesday, April 15, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, April 17, 2025 ]

DAY 198 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/17/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.49°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.72°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.732
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 162

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 154 in
SWE DAY: 105
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.45 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 68.15 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -87

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-17 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025198-8746.9599832.4899639.72497153.68899708333004.794.79TF14.95998161.95998105443.45012046217 68.1534042703140.7315802231586416 4111123WETL
2025-04-17 00:00:01FORECAST2025198-8639.93825.32232.63155.6852184004.794.79TF7.938154.938106444.8140945618569.250979459260.44994452834502162111122WETL
2025-04-16 12:00:01FORECAST2025198-8639.5627.24833.404155.6903352004.794.79TF7.56154.56106444.8160841562269.2535652446340.43414984419073162111122WETL
2025-04-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025198-8641.0927.87834.484155.6612088004.794.79TF9.09156.09106444.8047584275369.2388463768220.49846623647131162111122WETL
2025-04-16 04:00:02FORECAST2025198-8640.85627.89634.376155.45615091667004.794.79TF8.856155.856106444.7249984570569.1352364765540.48858499444142162111122WETL
2025-04-16 00:00:01FORECAST2025198-8742.8928.7635.825155.5017616004.794.79TF10.89151.89105444.1596381527869.0676061643760.5740572177622163111122.5WETL
2025-04-15 20:00:01FORECAST2025198-8742.67428.81435.744157.5322064004.794.79TF10.674150.674105444.9504868145770.0940319266530.56507388356884163111122.5WETL
2025-04-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025198-8742.31428.8535.582157.5302384004.794.79TF10.314150.314105444.9497222608770.0930358237680.55002900756367163111122.5WETL
2025-04-15 12:00:01FORECAST2025198-8742.5329.31835.924156.5452544004.794.79TF10.53150.53105444.5665830965969.5947888485940.55906598002687163111122.5WETL
2025-04-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025198-8743.21429.31836.266156.6372584004.794.79TF11.214151.214105444.6024114207969.6413028029810.58745906370851163111122.5WETL
2025-04-15 04:00:02FORECAST2025198-8743.14229.58836.365156.4570377004.794.79TF11.142152.142105444.5322217642369.5501945794310.58448909363751163111122.5WETL
2025-04-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025198-8743.30430.00236.653157.6434184004.794.79TF11.304141.304105444.9936856589170.1503257736850.59116447845895163111122.5WETL
2025-04-14 20:00:01FORECAST2025198-8742.40429.73236.068159.4780472004.794.79TF10.404140.404105445.7045649121771.0800936403190.55379784158174163111122.5WETL
2025-04-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025198-8742.4430.05636.248159.4613192004.794.79TF10.44140.44105445.6980981246871.0716066918930.55530403495572163111122.5WETL
2025-04-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025198-8743.84431.17237.508158.4815504004.794.79TF11.844141.844105445.3188548316870.5748225360770.61321525747767163111122.5WETL
2025-04-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025198-8744.49231.2837.886158.395352004.794.79TF12.492143.492105445.2854444578370.5311447153740.63919597214498163111122.5WETL
2025-04-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025198-8744.18631.58637.886157.82570188333004.794.79TF12.186144.186105445.0644649030870.2426115566580.62699891110238163111122.5WETL
2025-04-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025198-8744.38431.49637.94158.8164648004.794.79TF12.384138.384105445.4485977604570.7445715464320.63490652862032163111122.5WETL
2025-04-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025198-8744.58230.61437.598159.1333128004.794.79TF12.582139.582105445.5712403644470.9052275675980.64275721372214163111122.5WETL
2025-04-13 16:00:01FORECAST2025198-8744.27631.1937.733159.0871632004.794.79TF12.276137.276105445.5533833430970.8818238102140.63060014526432163111122.5WETL
2025-04-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025198-8744.13231.17237.652158.7243624004.794.79TF12.132137.132105445.4129290927770.6978831749670.62483281084109163111122.5WETL
2025-04-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025198-8744.3332.30638.318158.3756328004.794.79TF12.33142.33105445.2778002965670.521153393760.63275542347134163111122.5WETL
2025-04-13 04:00:03FORECAST2025198-8741.929.5735.735159.36797625004.794.79TF9.9131.9105445.6620081312771.0242523273920.53263941398745163111122.5WETL
2025-04-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025198-8742.2630.4736.365158.432658180780.0240157610.0240157614.574.594015761TF10.26131.26105445.2999051768370.5500476648160.54776551722749163111122.5WETL
2025-04-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025198-8741.7230.52436.122158.23899440.0200787510.0200787514.584.600078751TF9.72133.72105445.2248218086470.4519280849180.52505726332634163111122.5WETL
2025-04-12 16:00:01FORECAST2025198-8742.04430.95636.5158.14895840.0161417410.0161417414.584.596141741TF10.044134.044105445.1899023095470.4063193404520.53869675209659163111122.5WETL
2025-04-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025198-8741.68429.6635.672158.601911609650.0129921330.0129921334.584.592992133TF9.684129.684105445.365494424170.6358187806380.52353965506452163111122.5WETL
2025-04-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025198-8741.86430.03835.951158.486485156510.0129921330.0129921334.584.592992133TF9.864131.864105445.3207673147270.5773231789090.53112384233505163111122.5WETL
2025-04-12 04:00:03FORECAST2025198-8740.69429.17434.934158.789871176410.0291338740.0291338744.584.609133874TF8.694127.694105445.4382996552270.7310902192940.48174787264812162111122WETL
2025-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025198-8741.14429.82235.483160.85384432769004.564.56TF9.144128.144105446.2354874187871.7786936267520.50074687755671163111122.5WETL
2025-04-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025198-8741.2729.49835.384160.914751149004.584.58TF9.27127.27105446.2589486085271.8096476633520.50606814968421163111122.5WETL
2025-04-11 16:00:03FORECAST2025198-8741.97229.80435.888160.97279513527004.584.58TF9.972126.972105446.2813036623771.8391488671450.53566911640969163111122.5WETL
2025-04-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025198-8745.4130.18237.796160.60737831053004.584.58TF13.41132.41105446.1405121166571.6534580091740.67490468624902163111122.5WETL
2025-04-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025198-8742.29628.34635.321160.80588383842004.584.58TF10.296129.296105446.2170105766471.7543207695110.54927468788978163111122.5WETL
2025-04-11 04:00:03FORECAST2025198-8741.91828.52635.222160.60681131211004.624.62TF9.918128.918105446.1402935561271.6531699458970.53339702380074163111122.5WETL
2025-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025198-8743.57429.85836.716166.01520031153004.614.61TF11.574135.574105448.2108091778474.4098072674530.60223068593097163111122.5WETL
2025-04-10 20:00:03FORECAST2025198-8742.829.19235.996166.74380691039004.764.76TF10.8130.8105448.4875769090774.7825259258370.57031855239816163111122.5WETL
2025-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025198-8742.29629.33635.816166.81726010413004.734.73TF10.296128.296105448.5154503507374.8201185418770.54927468788978163111122.5WETL
2025-04-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025198-8740.15427.80633.98166.83413084112004.784.78TF8.154125.154105448.521851591374.8287532734850.45900744896258162111122WETL
2025-04-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025198-8742.1728.90435.537167.00639747642004.824.82TF10.17125.17105448.5871987860674.9169320232980.54398961727219163111122.5WETL
2025-04-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025198-8742.92630.14636.536166.555904165950.0043307110.0043307114.774.774330711TF10.926127.926105448.4162493780274.6863738578580.57555084184838163111122.5WETL
2025-04-10 00:00:03FORECAST2025198-8736.78827.80632.297165.92260780.0129921330.0129921334.84.812992133TF4.788105.788105448.1756003884774.3624643687840.32301612141627162111122WETL
2025-04-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025198-8734.66426.29430.479166.203326325530.0129921330.0129921334.754.762992133TF2.664101.664105448.2823195854674.5060126480260.24693641184276161111121.5WETL
2025-04-09 16:00:03FORECAST2025198-8734.39425.32229.858166.267844990230.0255905650.0255905654.744.765590565TF2.394101.394105448.3068365342274.5390116049310.23799975557859161111121.5WETL
2025-04-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025198-8736.0523.19829.624166.7694399543700.014.834.84TF4.0594.05105448.4973045262374.7956442968860.29549074480063162111122WETL
2025-04-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025198-8737.81423.7230.767166.460342269800.014.854.86TF5.81498.814105448.3799611994774.6374818081860.36292151699787162111122WETL
2025-04-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025198-8736.6824.04430.362166.090775092280.0019685050.0119685054.924.931968505TF4.6898.68105448.2395407486474.4484527499480.31892208064971162111122WETL
2025-04-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025198-8739.84825.84432.846166.0439403104400.025.065.08TF7.84893.848105448.2217360296474.4245031831460.44617572721758162111122WETL
2025-04-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025198-8739.27229.33634.304156.557554180880.0051181130.0551181135.275.325118113TF7.27295.272105444.5713733790369.6010068750540.4221845956771162111122WETL
2025-04-08 16:00:04FORECAST2025198-8738.17428.20233.188157.322329773650.0161417410.1761417415.355.526141741TF6.17492.174105444.8689297373269.9878164701860.37731182864657162112124WETL
2025-04-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025198-8743.98833.02638.507160.35731754787005.285.28TF11.988101.988105446.0440908017571.5264339090450.61903744305163163111122.5WETL
2025-04-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025198-8744.63633.56639.101159.32778954029005.135.13TF12.636111.636105445.6464677604371.0038666247070.64488803135412163111122.5WETL
2025-04-08 04:00:09FORECAST2025198-8743.32233.0838.201159.76316816829005.245.24TF11.322109.322105445.8147460493171.2247762449810.59190459614777163111122.5WETL
2025-04-08 00:00:06FORECAST2025198-8748.48833.3540.919169.34335029397005.945.94TF16.488111.488105449.470873414576.1149035635690.78212713503292164111123WETL
2025-04-07 20:00:03FORECAST2025198-8742.00827.46434.736163.24190562928006.046.04TF10.00890.008105447.1526507484972.9940508153670.53718320350083163111122.5WETL
2025-04-07 16:00:03FORECAST2025198-8743.93430.95637.445162.35518140945006.036.03TF11.93497.934105446.8127429413272.542363936290.6168572002914163111122.5WETL
2025-04-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025198-8745.21224.7134.961165.570273885220.0622047580.1322047585.545.672204758TF13.21296.212105448.0415478347274.1823617869530.66732379790929163112125WETL
2025-04-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025198-8745.21224.7134.961166.310679161830.0614173560.1314173565.675.801417356TF13.21291.212105448.3231112049374.5609211084380.66732379790929163112125WETL
2025-04-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025198-8733.67423.37828.526167.343687352450.0917323330.4017323335.415.811732333TF1.67478.674105448.7150627150675.0896331653260.21505745763144161112123WETL
2025-04-07 00:00:03FORECAST2025198-8729.58826.1527.869166.506068809810.0480315220.3480315225.545.888031522TF-2.41281.588105448.3973262574774.660876059960.11087058662637161112123WETL
2025-04-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025198-8729.55226.1527.851167.995422919430.0480315220.3480315225.415.758031522TF-2.44882.552105448.9618204057575.4235308937390.11015050587606161112123WETL
2025-04-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025198-8727.51824.29625.907172.42797317050.1921260880.7121260885.386.092126088TF-4.48276.518105450.629263144277.701090495270.074724748380829161113124.5WETL
2025-04-06 12:00:03FORECAST2025198-8724.0821.81222.946168.865319804720.023622060.223622065.645.86362206TF-7.9280.08105449.2905416915875.8695910079850.035405745241273161112123WETL
2025-04-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025198-8724.0821.81222.946167.620163001420.023622060.223622065.65.82362206TF-7.9289.08105448.8197907841975.2312464895080.035405745241273161112123WETL
2025-04-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025198-8727.44626.3326.888166.493320987790.0389763990.3089763994.995.298976399TF-4.55492.446105448.3924853620774.6543539939010.073652062780033161112123WETL