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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 14, 2025

[ Sunday, April 13, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 15, 2025 ]

DAY 196 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/15/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.49°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.46°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.98°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.962
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 26
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 129

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.24 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.29 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.53 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 158 in
SWE DAY: 103
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.92 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 70.09 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -89

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-15 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025196-8958.4900637.4599447.975157.883542500.245.295.53TF26.49006129.49006103443.92111323854 70.0878379486440.9621010832011716 5112127WETL
2025-04-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025196-8847.42630.50638.966159.154842400.245.295.53TF15.426118.426104444.9996514820770.8238493996850.75060096013328164112126WETL
2025-04-14 12:00:01FORECAST2025196-8846.88630.50638.696160.166945600.245.295.53TF14.886117.886104445.3922140446471.3371105175520.73329780262347164112126WETL
2025-04-14 08:00:01FORECAST2025196-8847.76830.30839.038160.160549600.245.295.53TF15.768118.768104445.3897364074371.3338649692130.76124333966006164112126WETL
2025-04-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025196-8847.96630.48839.227159.6280946833300.245.295.53TF15.966118.966104445.1833365748471.0637678022110.76728947108319164112126WETL
2025-04-14 00:00:01FORECAST2025196-8948.88430.50639.695160.671796800.245.295.53TF16.884111.884103445.0077647978171.5001971600170.79418328214885164112126WETL
2025-04-13 20:00:01FORECAST2025196-8949.98231.33440.658160.98352800.245.295.53TF17.982112.982103445.1287765341971.6584008607970.82380705537332164112126WETL
2025-04-13 16:00:01FORECAST2025196-8949.29831.44240.37160.979296800.245.295.53TF17.298112.298103445.1271346551471.6562531233830.80568346593211164112126WETL
2025-04-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025196-8949.26231.65840.46160.583728800.245.295.53TF17.262112.262103444.9735600923371.4555134970360.80469922752091164112126WETL
2025-04-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025196-8951.832.68442.242160.398933600.245.295.53TF19.8115.8103444.9017626605171.3617682875060.86659179672526165112127WETL
2025-04-13 04:00:03FORECAST2025196-8948.16430.99239.578160.7866090500.245.295.53TF16.164111.164103445.0523452070571.5584574355910.77324968005291164112126WETL
2025-04-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025196-8948.16431.139.632159.8406996303600.025.295.31TF16.164110.164103444.6846704017971.078708831920.77324968005291164111123WETL
2025-04-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025196-8948.63231.71240.172159.64503200.035.295.32TF16.632111.632103444.6085041037870.9795388651210.78699004938091164111123WETL
2025-04-12 16:00:01FORECAST2025196-8948.52431.94640.235159.616692800.035.295.32TF16.524111.524103444.5974695444170.9651777159280.78386296338579164111123WETL
2025-04-12 12:00:01FORECAST2025196-8947.98431.31639.65159.8483444096500.035.295.32TF15.984109.984103444.6876454682571.0825839075250.76783487495006164111123WETL
2025-04-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025196-8948.54231.5540.046159.8086859565100.035.295.32TF16.542111.542103444.6722112318471.0624817583350.78438597954534164111123WETL
2025-04-12 04:00:03FORECAST2025196-8948.12831.51439.821159.9484327764100.035.295.32TF16.128110.128103444.7265908444171.1333212195620.7721724444724164111123WETL
2025-04-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025196-8948.63231.29839.965161.8769091276900.045.265.3TF16.632110.632103445.4750501424972.112124210570.78699004938091164111123WETL
2025-04-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025196-8946.8531.47839.164162.00089034900.055.275.32TF14.85109.85103445.5230430771772.1751296494960.73212307966478164111123WETL
2025-04-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025196-8946.38231.29838.84162.0498815352700.055.275.32TF14.382109.382103445.5420033222872.2000288573650.71661879748783164111123WETL
2025-04-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025196-8946.9431.33439.137162.0484463105300.055.275.32TF14.94109.94103445.5414479046472.1992993998920.73505499737786164111123WETL
2025-04-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025196-8946.38230.95638.669162.0553670384200.055.275.32TF14.382110.382103445.5441261385872.2028168931970.71661879748783164111123WETL
2025-04-11 04:00:03FORECAST2025196-8946.70631.15438.93161.8413377121100.085.285.36TF14.706109.706103445.4612777133872.0940490840790.72739830941604164111123WETL
2025-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025196-8948.2932.23440.262167.6392923115300.15.255.35TF16.29113.29103447.6897634893875.0503951264770.77699732576206164112126WETL
2025-04-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025196-8947.76831.20839.488168.2039645103900.115.395.5TF15.768109.768103447.9050507058975.339405252960.76124333966006164112126WETL
2025-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025196-8947.19230.41638.804168.1816745041300.085.395.47TF15.192108.192103447.8965582590575.3279931726420.74317681502449164111123WETL
2025-04-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025196-8947.51630.45238.984167.9432956411200.125.45.52TF15.516108.516103447.8057063264975.2059661273710.75342576945366164112126WETL
2025-04-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025196-8947.01230.34438.678168.2336422764200.165.45.56TF15.012107.012103447.9163571278675.3546001948060.73738874883793164112126WETL
2025-04-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025196-8947.04832.3639.704168.0145857659500.25.315.51TF15.048108.048103447.832882477975.2424562418940.73855167240189164112126WETL
2025-04-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025196-8944.20430.86637.535166.9820746597800.315.235.54TF12.20492.204103447.438803199574.7142596415410.63938149320243163112125WETL
2025-04-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025196-8943.12430.12836.626167.0278591729100.255.245.49TF11.12491.124103447.4562997154374.7376678148990.59858751677486163112125WETL
2025-04-09 16:00:03FORECAST2025196-8943.30430.30836.806166.9303706714500.245.245.48TF11.30492.304103447.4190421142774.68782654560.60547517151229163112125WETL
2025-04-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025196-8942.20627.9535.078167.2808160276100.295.285.57TF10.20686.206103447.5529303127274.8670193982590.56302652268562163112125WETL
2025-04-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025196-8943.66428.92236.293167.2292056467300.315.285.59TF11.66487.664103447.5332199682274.8406248758080.61915003809029163112125WETL
2025-04-09 04:00:03FORECAST2025196-8943.8829.08436.482166.787025896700.345.325.66TF11.8888.88103447.3642426648674.6145515266030.62728530448523163112125WETL
2025-04-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025196-8943.82627.93235.879166.7431868013400.315.495.8TF11.82682.826103447.3474793789674.5921443191960.62525664187882163112125WETL
2025-04-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025196-8943.23228.00435.618157.5687754163500.295.726.01TF11.23282.232103443.7979566004969.9287005538170.60272393276657163112125WETL
2025-04-08 16:00:04FORECAST2025196-8943.03427.51835.276157.698089754570.0090551230.2790551235.826.099055123TF11.03482.034103443.8485644023169.9940707465540.59513202440711163112125WETL
2025-04-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025196-8941.52226.65434.088162.0323807478700.185.846.02TF9.52279.522103445.5352305540872.1911341137270.53617789644292163112125WETL
2025-04-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025196-8943.28627.8635.573161.1680663402900.25.675.87TF11.28688.286103445.2003678104671.7520824139970.60478784891302163112125WETL
2025-04-08 04:00:08FORECAST2025196-8943.14227.39235.267161.4490553682900.25.785.98TF11.14288.142103445.3093125081771.8947678511470.59927770056218163112125WETL
2025-04-08 00:00:06FORECAST2025196-8944.29429.06636.68171.2155086939700.486.26.68TT12.29486.294103449.0480333110576.8839874513780.64271754755736163112125WETL
2025-04-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025196-8942.1726.04234.106164.1475792292800.486.36.78TT10.1775.17103446.3516310834173.2675397273820.56161955057487163112125WETL
2025-04-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025196-8943.50226.81635.159163.5717990094500.456.326.77TT11.50279.502103446.1298322094972.9742592462890.61301361939105163112125WETL
2025-04-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025196-8942.1725.5233.845165.6054578809700.2866.28TF10.1781.17103446.9117787213174.0110297475390.56161955057487163112125WETL
2025-04-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025196-8936.06824.9830.524166.3602743446400.296.126.41TF4.06876.068103447.2009811223374.3964779067010.32631491332589162112124WETL
2025-04-07 04:00:03FORECAST2025196-8936.524.36830.434166.077750507830.0169291430.3269291435.846.166929143TF4.576.5103447.0927991055574.2521663436980.34190649635912162112124WETL
2025-04-07 00:00:03FORECAST2025196-8942.5327.30234.916165.3596005859300.076.216.28TF10.5381.53103446.8174605231973.8855568069360.57565133374019163111122.5WETL
2025-04-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025196-8942.4427.78835.114166.8314412751500.076.086.15TF10.4483.44103447.3812244076374.6372544673650.57215164428746163111122.5WETL
2025-04-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025196-8942.69227.89635.294167.3950531916500.1266.12TF10.69281.692103447.5965490502274.9254481366620.58193559141688163112125WETL
2025-04-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025196-8943.75430.66837.211167.408142301480.0204724520.6604724525.746.400472452TT11.75488.754103447.6015460066474.932143308240.62254636816782163113127.5WETL
2025-04-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025196-8943.75430.66837.211166.162985498170.0204724520.6604724525.76.360472452TF11.75497.754103447.1254448593674.2956988100290.62254636816782163113127.5WETL
2025-04-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025196-8943.64631.98237.814164.281174470250.0204724520.3504724525.45.750472452TF11.64697.646103446.4030475570973.3356169397780.61846965990161163112125WETL
2025-04-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025196-8939.48823.82831.658166.7754798190.0665354690.3965354695.585.976535469TF7.48874.488103447.3598278323574.6086499384850.45584023289749162112124WETL
2025-04-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025196-8939.70424.24231.973169.176349237910.0665354690.4065354695.66.006535469TF7.70468.704103448.2750596897875.8375380527230.46434360276848162112124WETL
2025-04-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025196-8937.56222.56830.065171.534875750170.0724409840.4324409845.616.042440984TF5.56259.562103449.1687319221477.0481026211250.38135015696305162112124WETL
2025-04-05 12:00:04FORECAST2025196-8939.03826.56432.801170.681511233630.1074803730.4974803735.125.617480373TF7.03865.038103448.8460004346876.6097136653620.43819413848633162113126WETL
2025-04-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025196-8939.03826.56432.801171.059383439370.1074803730.4974803735.235.727480373TF7.03863.038103448.9889931453576.8037803385080.43819413848633162113126WETL
2025-04-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025196-8938.7525.37632.063170.733357456060.102362260.532362265.235.76236226TF6.7557.75103448.8656279747976.636335710760.42696254372087162113126WETL
2025-04-05 00:00:37FORECAST2025196-8926.97823.61225.295179.922229391160.0964567451.4664567454.826.286456745TT-5.02239.978103452.3037719234281.3795030064920.088144827292076161114126WETL
2025-04-04 20:00:03FORECAST2025196-8926.99623.61225.304179.821017376950.0976378481.4776378484.736.207637848TT-5.00444.996103452.2663374495681.3269929255270.088431192309916161114126WETL
2025-04-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025196-8925.91624.22425.07179.277747087070.0775590971.4675590974.696.157559097TT-6.08446.916103452.0652378893181.0452373851780.07244304920152161114126WETL
2025-04-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025196-8927.30221.1124.206172.819126017320.0173228440.4273228444.685.107322844TF-4.69843.302103449.6531022394377.7086561399940.093405609527426161112123WETL
2025-04-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025196-8927.30221.1124.206169.182976627290.0173228440.4273228444.675.097322844TF-4.69852.302103448.2775783903475.840935067350.093405609527426161112123WETL
2025-04-04 04:00:04FORECAST2025196-8928.56228.38228.472171.089192919690.0023622060.3623622064.745.102362206TF-3.43858.562103449.0002676762276.8190934174510.1160622140448161112123WETL