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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 11, 2025

[ Thursday, April 10, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, April 12, 2025 ]

DAY 193 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/12/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.03°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.60°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.81°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.188
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 151

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.52 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.60 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.12 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 161 in
SWE DAY: 100
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.43 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 71.45 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -92

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-12 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025193-9233.0299626.629.81498161.129927083330.0299999999999730.519999999999975.66.12TF1.02996151.02996100443.43466886315 71.4505958601410.1880554807849816 1113124.5WETL
2025-04-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025193-9133.49423.32428.409162.988799741950.0031496080.4931496085.66.093149608TF1.494151.494101444.7453583529172.4885121487470.20149001854827161113124.5WETL
2025-04-11 12:00:01FORECAST2025193-9132.82823.3628.094163.02654230350.0090551230.4990551235.66.099055123TF0.828150.828101444.7600399883372.5076914740640.18238496923195161113124.5WETL
2025-04-11 08:00:01FORECAST2025193-9133.29623.1828.238163.030417648680.0125984320.5025984325.66.102598432TF1.296151.296101444.7615473952372.5096608259180.19568886936504161113124.5WETL
2025-04-11 04:00:03FORECAST2025193-9132.93623.05427.995162.702353967680.0185039470.5085039475.66.108503947TF0.936150.936101444.6338867362372.3429800257830.18540394714369161113124.5WETL
2025-04-11 00:00:01FORECAST2025193-9234.53823.86429.201168.620780433630.0216535550.4816535555.66.081653555TF2.538149.538100446.3458616876975.2631875411010.23373751946308161112123WETL
2025-04-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025193-9234.4323.50428.967169.028743254330.019685050.619685055.66.21968505TF2.43149.43100446.5028246216875.4718113053090.23027461848605161113124.5WETL
2025-04-10 16:00:01FORECAST2025193-9234.08823.928.994169.043297881760.0220472560.6220472565.66.222047256TF2.088149.088100446.5084214831175.4792560994830.21949990170083161113124.5WETL
2025-04-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025193-9233.99824.00829.003168.625599376860.0283464720.6283464725.66.228346472TF1.998148.998100446.3477167165475.2656512618190.21671325804313161113124.5WETL
2025-04-10 08:00:01FORECAST2025193-9233.9824.31429.147168.669379797570.0322834820.6322834825.66.232283482TF1.98149.98100446.3645687372475.2880349725190.21615839007191161113124.5WETL
2025-04-10 04:00:03FORECAST2025193-9234.23224.56629.399168.383015908790.0444882130.5444882135.66.144488213TF2.232151.232100446.2543071824775.1416461056720.22400099183406161113124.5WETL
2025-04-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025193-9233.11623.70228.409166.404230663960.0244094620.4644094625.66.064409462TF1.116140.116100445.490199926974.1314539871690.19050388773254161112123WETL
2025-04-09 20:00:01FORECAST2025193-9233.1723.19828.184166.640237325260.0405512030.4705512035.66.070551203TF1.17141.17100445.5815356575374.2518128497240.19205047260598161112123WETL
2025-04-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025193-9232.77423.3628.067166.602199568090.0397638010.4697638015.66.069763801TF0.774140.774100445.5668185605874.2324120267510.18088703782652161112123WETL
2025-04-09 12:00:01FORECAST2025193-9232.05422.76627.41166.545849214950.0618110570.5118110575.66.111811057TF0.054000000000002139.054100445.5450135675874.2036726480990.16165445909346161113124.5WETL
2025-04-09 08:00:01FORECAST2025193-9232.14422.98227.563166.480202087760.0503937280.5103937285.66.110393728TF0.144140.144100445.5196072148474.1701942431870.16398305365654161113124.5WETL
2025-04-09 04:00:03FORECAST2025193-9232.19822.76627.482165.884410349620.0377952960.5477952965.66.147795296TF0.198140.198100445.2888337159973.8664756162470.16539057792894161113124.5WETL
2025-04-09 00:00:02FORECAST2025193-9231.98223.0927.536165.825826166030.0429134090.6329134095.696.322913409TF-0.018000000000001135.982100445.2661229008273.8366226937730.15980713890345161113124.5WETL
2025-04-08 20:00:01FORECAST2025193-9232.43222.62227.527156.770199888910.0437008110.6237008115.936.553700811TT0.432136.432100441.7146591679169.2476954116130.17157963110333161113124.5WETL
2025-04-08 16:00:03FORECAST2025193-9231.40622.58626.996156.975179350110.0519685320.7219685325.936.651968532TT-0.594135.406100441.7959555616969.350999360450.14552627383262161113124.5WETL
2025-04-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025193-9230.43422.42426.429161.670737186670.0385826980.7385826985.936.668582698TT-1.566134.434100443.6467056825171.7246899581280.12342318047765161113124.5WETL
2025-04-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025193-9231.8222.7327.275161.050917162070.0421260070.7621260075.746.502126007TT-0.18134.82100443.4036668465671.4105672186630.15570123255486161113124.5WETL
2025-04-08 04:00:08FORECAST2025193-9231.22622.02826.627161.354504345980.0417323060.7817323065.836.611732306TT-0.774134.226100443.5227548166471.5643942696010.14124467594294161113124.5WETL
2025-04-08 00:00:04FORECAST2025193-9231.71222.08226.897169.369019224610.1114173830.8214173836.217.031417383TT-0.288132.712100446.633620814675.6458983101070.15300285376239161113124.5WETL
2025-04-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025193-9231.96422.22627.095161.868758128360.1251969180.8651969186.267.125196918TT-0.036000000000001128.964100443.7242714459371.8250967703630.15934746964924161113124.5WETL
2025-04-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025193-9232.1822.06427.122161.58751064830.1287402270.9387402276.217.148740227TT0.18131.18100443.6140937976371.6824971052620.16492053938516161113124.5WETL
2025-04-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025193-9233.33222.6427.986164.555554885940.1708662340.7308662346.16.830866234TT1.332132.332100444.7728560353473.1898441231010.19673603118722161113124.5WETL
2025-04-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025193-9233.58422.53228.058165.00141445110.1669292240.7269292246.226.946929224TT1.584133.584100444.9461718108373.4167477033890.20416054754469161113124.5WETL
2025-04-07 04:00:03FORECAST2025193-9234.48422.17228.328164.493497236880.2271654770.6971654775.976.667165477TT2.484136.484100444.748717248173.1582718917570.23200247766414161113124.5WETL
2025-04-07 00:00:02FORECAST2025193-9234.26822.1928.229165.689768415210.1988190050.6088190056.437.038819005TT2.268132.268100445.2133655493173.7672994332190.22513438866125161113124.5WETL
2025-04-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025193-9232.32422.49627.41167.204718852450.1996064070.6196064076.296.909606407TT0.324132.324100445.7997708060174.5398253421060.16870502455334161113124.5WETL
2025-04-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025193-9232.88222.47827.68167.527875102560.2334646930.6134646936.226.833464693TT0.882130.882100445.9245660168674.7047950008360.18389060864576161113124.5WETL
2025-04-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025193-9232.77424.00828.391165.321332641570.0405512030.5205512036.056.570551203TT0.774133.774100445.0704104146673.5796333690830.18088703782652161113124.5WETL
2025-04-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025193-9233.81824.60229.21164.571644775530.0405512030.5205512036.016.530551203TT1.818137.818100444.7791139565173.1980303456250.21120165955174161113124.5WETL
2025-04-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025193-9233.49424.15228.823164.329778137460.0413386050.5113386055.726.231338605TF1.494136.494100444.6850165773573.0749901152070.20149001854827161113124.5WETL
2025-04-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025193-9233.58424.7129.147165.201505009470.1133858880.6133858885.86.413385888TF1.584127.584100445.0238877872573.5186160276180.20416054754469161113124.5WETL
2025-04-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025193-9233.04426.02429.534167.297783976650.1137795890.6237795895.816.433779589TT1.044125.044100445.8357208326974.587328112940.18845368299577161113124.5WETL
2025-04-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025193-9232.34224.96228.652169.191992749040.1322835360.6322835365.816.442283536TT0.342119.342100446.5655890094875.5553218976630.16918196936781161113124.5WETL
2025-04-05 12:00:03FORECAST2025193-9233.11624.31428.715167.665530153770.1515748850.8015748855.155.951574885TF1.116119.116100445.9776940011974.7750865014670.19050388773254161113124.5WETL
2025-04-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025193-9232.923.91828.409168.130181537050.1515748850.8015748855.266.061574885TF0.9116.9100446.1568891465175.0124387662080.18439419981417161113124.5WETL
2025-04-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025193-9232.3623.70228.031167.173104896440.1232284130.8432284135.226.063228413TF0.36113.36100445.7875567511474.5236899862880.16965977689661161113124.5WETL
2025-04-05 00:00:28FORECAST2025193-9232.5424.99828.769169.17773796760.2271654770.5871654775.065.647165477TF0.54107.54100446.5601095233475.5480291957210.17448526578366161113124.5WETL
2025-04-04 20:00:03FORECAST2025193-9235.18624.85430.02169.045162414630.2303150850.5803150854.985.560315085TF3.186112.186100446.5091384588375.4802098303910.25510821516656162113126WETL
2025-04-04 16:00:02FORECAST2025193-9235.65423.50429.579169.134695036390.2287402810.4687402815.055.518740281TF3.654111.654100446.5435627731175.5260093100930.27115438042302162112124WETL
2025-04-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025193-9232.82824.78228.805169.846387871250.307086780.547086784.965.50708678TF0.828109.828100446.8169226237875.8902403473970.18238496923195161113124.5WETL
2025-04-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025193-9232.75625.73629.246166.827859955040.3094489860.5394489864.965.499448986TF0.756118.756100445.6541074764374.3475210304660.18038944171379161113124.5WETL
2025-04-04 04:00:03FORECAST2025193-9233.78226.0629.921169.120311322920.2799214110.5499214115.025.569921411TF1.782120.782100446.5380329203275.5186511450090.21010926008337161113124.5WETL
2025-04-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025193-9233.69226.61830.155173.740768551950.4169293591.3269293594.816.136929359TT1.692115.692100448.3040280228977.8886863736330.20739279755889161114126WETL
2025-04-03 20:00:03FORECAST2025193-9233.69226.4230.056173.525322109610.4169293591.3269293594.866.186929359TT1.692117.692100448.2221416227577.7778915017460.20739279755889161114126WETL
2025-04-03 16:00:03FORECAST2025193-9232.88226.92429.903172.576483679520.4539372531.1639372534.815.973937253TF0.882115.882100447.8609755188877.290272332330.18389060864576161114126WETL
2025-04-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025193-9237.88628.70633.296172.012575793360.1952756960.4252756965.285.705275696TF5.886126.886100447.6459167380977.0007271814980.35389850583133162112124WETL
2025-04-03 08:00:03FORECAST2025193-9237.16628.74232.954172.716803828030.1952756960.4252756965.295.715275696TF5.166117.166100447.9144418756777.3623507891820.32618864215895162112124WETL
2025-04-03 04:00:04FORECAST2025193-9236.28427.89632.09171.550774427660.0614173560.3414173565.275.611417356TF4.284117.284100447.4695689787576.7637510911170.29351989818652162112124WETL
2025-04-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025193-9234.98826.0630.524177.379142231940.0775590971.0675590975.036.097559097TF2.988107.988100449.6801461121279.7638785961020.2484718963907161114126WETL
2025-04-02 20:00:04FORECAST2025193-9235.04226.07830.56175.129882920820.0751968911.0751968915.026.095196891TF3.042111.042100448.8309249597978.6037073394510.25027264376234162114128WETL
2025-04-02 16:00:03FORECAST2025193-9235.20426.22230.713177.107596441650.1240158151.1540158154.896.044015815TF3.204111.204100449.5778797157779.6236576897930.25571607423067162114128WETL
2025-04-02 12:00:03FORECAST2025193-9245.21232.43238.822168.118821087490.2271654770.3371654774.174.507165477TF13.212130.212100446.1525104536475.0066340826890.65352713139481163112125WETL
2025-04-02 08:00:03FORECAST2025193-9245.3232.43238.876167.055581011720.2248032710.3348032714.154.484803271TF13.32135.32100445.7421427862874.4637126445730.65770491225865163112125WETL
2025-04-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025193-9244.43835.74440.091167.07481927250.0625984590.2525984594.044.292598459TF12.438129.438100445.7495778260774.4735301560840.62306573994389163112125WETL
2025-04-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025193-9237.23834.4335.834167.216154988590.0149606380.2849606383.63.884960638TF5.238120.238100445.8041889167274.5456623484590.32891995596355162112124DRYL
2025-04-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025193-9237.25633.92635.591165.544141446180.0149606380.2849606383.713.994960638TF5.256124.256100445.1568774615573.6931130882350.32960422052977162112124DRYL
2025-04-01 16:00:04FORECAST2025193-9236.0533.7134.88166.431341522310.0149606380.2849606383.784.064960638TF4.05124.05100445.5006947452274.1452782755680.28511357335971162112124WETL
2025-04-01 12:00:03FORECAST2025193-9233.76429.40831.586165.7622296411500.33.493.79TF1.764123.764100445.2414651695673.80421799520.20956430495528161112123DRYL
2025-04-01 08:00:03FORECAST2025193-9233.76429.40831.586165.7164034127400.33.463.76TF1.764122.764100445.2236948925573.7808694317270.20956430495528161112123DRYL
2025-04-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025193-9224.60223.73824.17166.210357851190.0295275750.2095275753.463.669527575TF-7.398115.602100445.4151292283774.0326080213820.038167180318503161112123DRYL