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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 2, 2025

[ Tuesday, April 1, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, April 3, 2025 ]

DAY 184 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/03/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.35°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.59°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.47°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.280
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 68

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.10 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.83 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.14 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.97 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 163 in
SWE DAY: 91
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 438.91 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 71.64 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -101

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-03 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025184-10132.3499222.5899627.46994163.216537083330.100000000000020.830000000000028.148.97TT0.3499268.3499291438.9054876947 71.63663380840.2796380564937516 2113126WETL
2025-04-03 00:00:02FORECAST2025184-10027.518.48222.991164.20642745730.0503937280.7803937288.148.920393728TT-4.563.592439.9062672230572.2354365567740.12744411360354161113124.5WETL
2025-04-02 12:00:01FORECAST2025184-10027.44618.57223.009164.36928361440.0933071370.8233071378.148.963307137TT-4.55463.44692439.9716085482472.3178181077490.12615926377543161113124.5WETL
2025-04-02 08:00:01FORECAST2025184-10028.25619.97624.116164.367348255090.0921260340.8221260348.148.962126034TT-3.74464.25692439.9708321999572.3168389982890.14638722601421161113124.5WETL
2025-04-02 04:00:03FORECAST2025184-10028.1318.89623.513164.226383108510.07874020.80874028.148.9487402TT-3.8764.1392439.9142753043772.2455303110380.14310560911179161113124.5WETL
2025-04-02 00:00:01FORECAST2025184-10128.34619.00423.675163.729351695440.0897638280.6797638288.148.819763828TT-3.65462.34691439.1124510367371.8955969296370.1487618495536161113124.5WETL
2025-04-01 20:00:01FORECAST2025184-10128.43617.00622.721162.47405191480.1094488780.7794488788.148.919448878TT-3.56462.43691438.6053550608871.2619892282710.1511620096752161113124.5WETL
2025-04-01 16:00:02FORECAST2025184-10128.54418.15823.351162.320723391350.0755905920.7455905928.148.885590592TT-3.45662.54491438.5433049705771.1846665012570.15407593536661161113124.5WETL
2025-04-01 12:00:02FORECAST2025184-10128.29220.06624.179162.900147201550.066929170.736929178.148.87692917TT-3.70862.29291438.7776635323171.4769459781670.14733401241935161113124.5WETL
2025-04-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025184-10128.38220.04824.215162.805390699690.0854331170.7054331178.148.845433117TT-3.61862.38291438.7393611181971.4291331021770.14971884807748161113124.5WETL
2025-04-01 04:00:03FORECAST2025184-10128.43620.46224.449162.614650211860.0956693430.7556693438.148.895669343TT-3.56462.43691438.6622321560771.3329054432150.1511620096752161113124.5WETL
2025-04-01 00:00:01FORECAST2025184-10128.11219.86823.99163.896148411860.1118110840.7118110848.148.851811084TT-3.88857.11291439.1797093023971.9798628153040.14264088428538161113124.5WETL
2025-03-31 20:00:02FORECAST2025184-10128.65219.68824.17160.507915294420.1405512570.7805512578.148.920551257TT-3.34859.65291437.807849964870.2716252973820.15702668121307161113124.5WETL
2025-03-31 16:00:02FORECAST2025184-10128.63419.9424.287160.404409715540.1421260610.7521260618.148.892126061TT-3.36659.63491437.7657555377670.2195576107130.15653233269674161113124.5WETL
2025-03-31 12:00:02FORECAST2025184-10128.5820.51624.548161.824069169640.1275591240.7075591248.148.847559124TT-3.4260.5891438.342149372870.9343103000740.15505542543666161113124.5WETL
2025-03-31 08:00:01FORECAST2025184-10129.320.28224.791161.593621337350.1374016490.6474016498.148.787401649TT-2.761.391438.2487268411870.8181988167510.17550419074879161113124.5WETL
2025-03-31 04:00:03FORECAST2025184-10128.50820.42624.467161.612682569540.1425197620.6225197628.148.762519762TT-3.49261.50891438.2564562550370.8278015487960.1531005365149161113124.5WETL
2025-03-31 00:00:02FORECAST2025184-10128.50820.96624.737165.130681999630.1314961340.6214961348.238.851496134TT-3.49260.50891439.6766314380672.6041020086690.1531005365149161113124.5WETL
2025-03-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025184-10128.18420.5724.377164.353894947020.1334646390.5834646398.188.763464639TT-3.81662.18491439.3641423679972.2112080982380.14450589800938161113124.5WETL
2025-03-30 16:00:02FORECAST2025184-10128.81420.89424.854164.350122713480.1236221140.5936221148.188.773622114TT-3.18662.81491439.3626233536472.2093010638860.16152185796161161113124.5WETL
2025-03-30 12:00:02FORECAST2025184-10128.16620.8424.503164.411431062310.1598426060.4998426068.188.679842606TT-3.83461.16691439.3873093800772.2402963257940.14403811571826161113124.5WETL
2025-03-30 08:00:01FORECAST2025184-10127.64420.49824.071164.698966067360.1755906460.5555906468.218.765590646TT-4.35660.64491439.5030351015672.3856954646940.1309146347273161113124.5WETL
2025-03-30 04:00:03FORECAST2025184-10127.8619.0423.45164.191303079040.1775591510.5375591518.168.697559151TT-4.1462.8691439.2986561778372.1290187987110.13624155680493161113124.5WETL
2025-03-30 00:00:02FORECAST2025184-10127.51819.8523.684163.129042510060.2846458230.5946458238.058.644645823TT-4.48258.51891438.8701494293371.5924672626550.12787440604618161113124.5WETL
2025-03-29 20:00:02FORECAST2025184-10127.30219.81423.558163.243419075320.3059056770.6459056778.088.725905677TT-4.69859.30291438.9163435106671.6502046027150.1227771019446161113124.5WETL
2025-03-29 16:00:02FORECAST2025184-10126.52819.86823.198163.314831130570.3000001620.6400001628.18.740000162TT-5.47256.52891438.9451784035971.6862576865620.1056843056171161113124.5WETL
2025-03-29 12:00:02FORECAST2025184-10126.40219.79623.099165.297938418380.4665356850.9765356858.149.116535685TT-5.59858.40291439.743835401872.6887494241080.1030726035884161113124.5WETL
2025-03-29 08:00:02FORECAST2025184-10125.08819.6722.379165.578418999770.4665356851.0065356858.149.146535685TT-6.91255.08891439.856468997672.8307387234450.078574364532695161114126WETL
2025-03-29 04:00:03FORECAST2025184-10124.85418.66221.758165.634261868020.4137797511.0337797518.179.203779751TT-7.14655.85491439.8788844422172.8590143359120.074716512749058161114126WETL
2025-03-29 00:00:03FORECAST2025184-10123.52218.82421.173176.209600894630.7929138141.5629138148.8110.372913814TT-8.47844.52291444.0670450245178.2488767742260.0554433213024161115127.5WETL
2025-03-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025184-10123.48618.60821.047165.50772285390.7712602591.5612602599.0710.631260259TT-8.51447.48691439.8280868553772.7949451026190.054982682181065161115127.5WETL
2025-03-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025184-10123.10819.81421.461165.788024360010.7712602591.6612602599.0510.711260259TT-8.89248.10891439.9405886020572.9368810201130.050325967121279161115127.5WETL
2025-03-28 12:00:02FORECAST2025184-10123.84619.70621.776168.990900944720.350393891.230393899.1310.36039389TT-8.15447.84691441.2204238476774.5622369412290.059726912919295161114126WETL
2025-03-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025184-10124.83619.23822.037168.482882414940.350393891.240393899.0110.25039389TT-7.16447.83691441.0181191871774.3040039178690.074425829397253161114126WETL
2025-03-28 04:00:04FORECAST2025184-10125.03418.64421.839168.423718716460.2822836171.2522836178.9410.192283617TT-6.96648.03491440.9945418664474.2739406748070.077671003129072161114126WETL
2025-03-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025184-10126.04219.00422.523171.787713449270.1248032170.7248032179.029.744803217TT-5.95846.04291442.3295163705575.986776208420.09586872117988161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 20:00:02FORECAST2025184-10127.06818.30222.685169.073171236890.1248032170.6948032178.989.674803217TT-4.93245.06891441.2531612162974.604071285140.1174172611851161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 16:00:03FORECAST2025184-10127.15818.3222.739169.920877490040.1543307920.8943307928.859.744330792TT-4.84244.15891441.5900862391675.035374944660.11945885358681161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 12:00:02FORECAST2025184-10129.69618.9524.323170.972137527380.0641732630.9241732638.89.724173263TT-2.30447.69691442.0069083013375.5708659141460.18744606821578161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 08:00:03FORECAST2025184-10129.58819.47224.53170.735174160960.0641732630.9241732638.839.754173263TT-2.41247.58891441.9130500405475.4501015626740.18414053457758161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 04:00:04FORECAST2025184-10131.31619.81425.565170.550356912050.1716536360.9816536368.879.851653636TT-0.68455.31691441.8398069898875.3559367800770.24130384493014161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 00:00:02FORECAST2025184-10130.63219.41825.025172.357606220270.2078741280.8278741289.029.847874128TT-1.36841.63291442.5545460376976.2776421769550.21760200161278161113124.5WETL
2025-03-26 20:00:02FORECAST2025184-10132.48619.9426.213175.641839322110.2078741280.8278741288.979.797874128TT0.48645.48691443.8450402661977.9577592463480.28489484954654162113126WETL
2025-03-26 16:00:02FORECAST2025184-10132.30620.62426.465176.930148644730.2641733711.0641733718.9610.024173371TT0.30642.30691444.3483312757678.6186163026570.27795151411468162114128WETL
2025-03-26 12:00:04FORECAST2025184-10131.65820.76826.213174.448293782340.1964567990.9064567998.989.886456799TT-0.34244.65891443.3772977293977.3464130907180.25366020666498162113126WETL
2025-03-26 08:00:03FORECAST2025184-10132.0920.9326.51173.67140350920.1964567990.9064567998.849.746456799TT0.09000000000000344.0991443.0720768337376.9489494394510.26972994072311162113126WETL
2025-03-26 04:00:05FORECAST2025184-10131.80222.04626.924173.59819821980.2803151120.9303151128.689.610315112TT-0.19844.80291443.0432852308176.911516049450.25896043547638162113126WETL
2025-03-26 00:00:03FORECAST2025184-10132.37820.5726.474179.824994598920.090551230.800551239.029.82055123TT0.37836.37891445.4732419293680.1072233239090.28071893135306162113126WETL
2025-03-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025184-10132.19820.78626.492181.78247659840.0897638280.7997638288.89.599763828TT0.19832.19891446.2292274835981.1166541025590.27382548804028162113126WETL
2025-03-25 16:00:03FORECAST2025184-10133.42220.46226.942181.8363107307300.858.869.71TT1.42237.42291446.2499653293981.1444473592120.32226761693273162113126WETL
2025-03-25 12:00:03FORECAST2025184-10129.89422.29826.096188.351188424511.1822841032.0922841038.7610.852284103TT-2.10634.89491448.7387890986584.5204842189040.19360052251138161115127.5WETL
2025-03-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025184-10129.60622.51426.06188.602292975421.2070872662.1370872668.6410.777087266TT-2.39436.60691448.8338946155684.6511016895840.18468892855797161115127.5WETL
2025-03-25 04:00:04FORECAST2025184-10129.9322.20826.069189.666879092871.1236226542.073622654911.073622654TT-2.0734.9391449.2364321439385.2052720595570.19473258214092161115127.5WETL
2025-03-25 00:00:03FORECAST2025184-10129.46224.81827.14198.378330029371.2779534462.2579534468.5110.767953446TT-2.53834.46291452.4897971219189.7641703083730.18033014731658161115127.5WETL
2025-03-24 20:00:04FORECAST2025184-10128.9424.20626.573201.223651379451.2779534462.2579534468.2910.547953446TT-3.0628.9491453.5369052154491.2623521027870.16507539199162161115127.5WETL
2025-03-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025184-10129.3923.73826.564199.870678595281.2826778582.1626778588.2210.382677858TT-2.6131.3991453.0399406633190.5494003711430.17817510983743161115127.5WETL
2025-03-24 12:00:03FORECAST2025184-10135.4223.64829.534200.037035606841.0586619891.8786619898.910.778661989TT3.4233.4291453.1011378889390.6370084533860.407885807211791621151210WETL
2025-03-24 08:00:03FORECAST2025184-10135.4223.64829.534199.948875900261.0586619891.8786619898.8910.768661989TT3.4235.4291453.0687100783690.5905792857470.407885807211791621151210WETL
2025-03-24 04:00:05FORECAST2025184-10135.74424.1729.957205.347660898341.5838591232.4538591239.3311.783859123TT3.74432.74491455.041213789993.4416488640960.422323575493331621151210WETL
2025-03-24 00:00:03FORECAST2025184-10127.53623.50425.52212.768210216440.1488189781.6588189789.2210.878818978TT-4.46415.53691457.7086271570697.385845400830.12830570395469161115127.5WETL
2025-03-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025184-10127.53623.50425.52204.386428323210.1488189781.6588189788.610.258818978TT-4.46413.53691454.6919935292592.9328725446050.12830570395469161115127.5WETL
2025-03-23 16:00:03FORECAST2025184-10127.8624.27826.069205.228750241060.3409450661.7409450668.710.440945066TT-4.1413.8691454.9980591954793.3786830507930.13624155680493161115127.5WETL
2025-03-23 12:00:03FORECAST2025184-10135.58231.83833.71194.871729245981.3196857522.2396857528.0710.309685752TT3.58233.58291451.1888775795887.9239567904880.415090359937131621151210WETL
2025-03-23 08:00:03FORECAST2025184-10135.58231.83833.71204.386744746151.3196857522.2096857528.0410.249685752TT3.58232.58291454.6921086275292.9330399441410.415090359937131621151210WETL
2025-03-23 04:00:05FORECAST2025184-10135.2434.89835.069195.990396443210.3472442821.2672442827.78.967244282TT3.2431.2491451.6051530310388.5102729783470.39991721675384162114128WETL