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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, April 1, 2025

[ Monday, March 31, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, April 2, 2025 ]

DAY 183 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/02/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.45°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.98°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.71°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.235
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 62

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.23 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.81 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.33 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.14 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 164 in
SWE DAY: 90
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 438.58 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 71.89 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -102

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-02 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025183-10231.4499221.9799426.71493163.912073750.230000000000020.810000000000029.3310.14TT-0.5500862.4499290438.58186939021 71.8888637209020.2346925445593416 1113124.5WETL
2025-04-02 00:00:01FORECAST2025183-10128.50817.47422.991163.34560298220.0937008380.6737008389.3310.003700838TT-3.49259.50891438.957601906971.7017941671040.14255518143275161113124.5WETL
2025-04-01 12:00:01FORECAST2025183-10128.77817.6923.234162.610993776070.1657481210.7457481219.3310.075748121TT-3.22259.77891438.6607532528171.3310610169980.14982231668387161113124.5WETL
2025-04-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025183-10128.8517.36623.108162.445713930830.1196851040.6996851049.3310.029685104TT-3.1559.8591438.5938888619371.2476974018770.1518011219053161113124.5WETL
2025-04-01 04:00:03FORECAST2025183-10128.86817.74423.306162.20995392350.1570866990.7370866999.3310.067086699TT-3.13259.86891438.4984629475971.1288154702560.1522985170601161113124.5WETL
2025-04-01 00:00:01FORECAST2025183-10229.13817.79823.468163.390234759640.2003938090.6803938099.3310.010393809TT-2.86255.13890438.3705578099171.6254683522770.15988882343183161113124.5WETL
2025-03-31 20:00:02FORECAST2025183-10229.2119.20224.206159.873317373770.2157481480.7157481489.3310.045748148TT-2.7957.2190436.939102006169.8549037280290.16195388436908161113124.5WETL
2025-03-31 16:00:02FORECAST2025183-10229.26420.13824.701159.769895180090.1940945930.6940945939.3310.024094593TT-2.73657.26490436.8968132517969.8029580577530.16351400186108161113124.5WETL
2025-03-31 12:00:02FORECAST2025183-10229.69620.60625.151161.266344031870.1637796160.6637796169.339.993779616TT-2.30457.69690437.5076215874670.555254619490.17634386397751161113124.5WETL
2025-03-31 08:00:01FORECAST2025183-10229.85820.8425.349160.996585433160.1610237090.5910237099.339.921023709TT-2.14257.85890437.3976851812370.4195337905470.18131457617108161113124.5WETL
2025-03-31 04:00:03FORECAST2025183-10230.2920.76825.529160.98245311570.1228347120.5628347129.339.892834712TT-1.7159.2990437.3919236728770.4124248458550.19499230956431161113124.5WETL
2025-03-31 00:00:02FORECAST2025183-10230.8321.00225.916164.521303675540.1342520410.6642520419.339.994252041TT-1.1757.8390438.8282146253672.1965899597770.21294335078793161113124.5WETL
2025-03-30 20:00:01FORECAST2025183-10230.79421.32626.06163.726648185360.125984320.565984329.339.89598432TT-1.20659.79490438.5068159152471.7952511762360.21171747127649161113124.5WETL
2025-03-30 16:00:02FORECAST2025183-10231.08221.18226.132163.782564252870.1480315760.5880315769.339.918031576TT-0.91860.08290438.5294524134171.8234782166770.22163951799452161113124.5WETL
2025-03-30 12:00:02FORECAST2025183-10230.75821.43426.096163.654450304910.0846457150.4646457159.339.794645715TT-1.24258.75890438.4775832958271.7588078653040.21049572381189161112123WETL
2025-03-30 08:00:01FORECAST2025183-10230.59621.48826.042163.868877820610.1287402270.5287402279.339.858740227TT-1.40458.59690438.5643884186671.8670541822480.20504919779903161113124.5WETL
2025-03-30 04:00:03FORECAST2025183-10231.76621.12826.447163.336569452930.1098425790.4598425799.339.789842579TT-0.23460.76690438.3488108888171.5983909943480.24623707542194161112123WETL
2025-03-30 00:00:02FORECAST2025183-10231.92820.62426.276161.649414101970.1421260610.4121260619.229.632126061TT-0.07199999999999956.92890437.6636071482370.7480656692670.25226973897629162112124WETL
2025-03-29 20:00:02FORECAST2025183-10231.29820.53425.916161.645907662330.1795276560.4195276569.279.689527656TT-0.70258.29890437.662180019470.7463003387120.22925196242723161112123WETL
2025-03-29 16:00:02FORECAST2025183-10231.40619.59825.502161.747370392620.1834646660.4434646669.279.713464666TT-0.59456.40690437.7034704420370.7973853557210.23311239118081161112123WETL
2025-03-29 12:00:02FORECAST2025183-10231.4620.22825.844162.810849762010.1944882940.6544882949.279.924488294TT-0.5458.4690438.135615404971.3332318550730.23505603514681161113124.5WETL
2025-03-29 08:00:02FORECAST2025183-10231.51419.11225.313163.010011355270.1854331710.6754331719.279.945433171TT-0.48655.51490438.2164150467371.4336627928340.23700858332091161113124.5WETL
2025-03-29 04:00:03FORECAST2025183-10230.52420.6625.592163.305352111690.3019686670.7819686679.2810.061968667TT-1.47656.52490438.3361592468871.5826408290970.20265560212904161113124.5WETL
2025-03-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025183-10228.3119.32823.819171.266675679420.2850395240.81503952410.0310.845039524TT-3.6947.3190441.5304156415475.619446498280.1373795227267161113124.5WETL
2025-03-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025183-10228.59818.75223.675160.711926868290.263779670.8937796710.2411.13377967TT-3.40249.59890437.2815947868870.2763676822360.14495067458054161113124.5WETL
2025-03-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025183-10228.77818.10423.441161.022024369610.3413387670.97133876710.2411.211338767TT-3.22250.77890437.4080556869770.4323306022910.14982231668387161113124.5WETL
2025-03-28 12:00:02FORECAST2025183-10227.82417.52822.676166.859432341820.2366143010.93661430110.3411.276614301TT-4.17649.82490439.770117912873.3797922358260.1252232237075161113124.5WETL
2025-03-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025183-10227.06818.4122.739166.370748716420.2366143010.97661430110.1911.166614301TT-4.93249.06890439.5737163161373.1322082995740.1078382954836161113124.5WETL
2025-03-28 04:00:03FORECAST2025183-10226.02418.10422.064166.671890197790.3129922951.06299229510.1211.182992295TT-5.97649.02490439.6947736853673.2847590402280.086781548806801161114126WETL
2025-03-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025183-10227.30218.48222.892170.974092433270.1933071910.66330719110.2310.893307191TT-4.69846.30290441.4141646039575.4703861803510.11302342435275161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 20:00:02FORECAST2025183-10227.35619.34623.351168.289659578810.1933071910.65330719110.1710.823307191TT-4.64444.35690440.3435263770374.1052621517240.11424477190627161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025183-10226.22218.89622.559168.962912841990.2996064610.82960646110.0310.859606461TT-5.77843.22290440.612727677274.4472099035940.090519811851191161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 12:00:02FORECAST2025183-10227.73418.80623.27170.604387251490.2188977560.9288977561010.928897756TT-4.26643.73490441.2671473808875.2821112931260.12305688798302161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 08:00:03FORECAST2025183-10228.07618.84223.459170.360547893590.2188977560.92889775610.0310.958897756TT-3.92444.07690441.1701064670575.1579810520.13142968310336161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 04:00:04FORECAST2025183-10228.99419.70624.35169.592123372970.2074804270.85748042710.0910.947480427TT-3.00649.99490440.8639026031874.7670453609670.15581046675441161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 00:00:02FORECAST2025183-10228.2218.69823.459170.932508784050.1992127060.68921270610.2210.909212706TT-3.7837.2290441.3976353107375.4492051750110.1350697754142161113124.5WETL
2025-03-26 20:00:02FORECAST2025183-10228.05819.34623.702174.247466341740.1992127060.68921270610.1710.859212706TT-3.94239.05890442.7098518211677.1410700043630.13097946510578161113124.5WETL
2025-03-26 16:00:02FORECAST2025183-10228.05819.20223.63175.186534459310.2704725870.87047258710.1611.030472587TT-3.94236.05890443.0795753730777.6215752993110.13097946510578161113124.5WETL
2025-03-26 12:00:03FORECAST2025183-10228.1319.90424.017173.256071898020.2181103540.81811035410.1410.958110354TT-3.8739.1390442.3185685619676.6343777165980.13278672368661161113124.5WETL
2025-03-26 08:00:03FORECAST2025183-10228.43619.77824.107172.557503621320.2181103540.8181103541010.818110354TT-3.56438.43690442.0422655022276.2777098301770.14065811469763161113124.5WETL
2025-03-26 04:00:04FORECAST2025183-10228.77819.72424.251171.950731490530.1397638550.7697638559.8310.599763855TT-3.22238.77890441.8018721732275.9681550940710.14982231668387161113124.5WETL
2025-03-26 00:00:03FORECAST2025183-10228.7619.63424.197179.27648965280.1858268720.74582687210.2510.995826872TT-3.2429.7690444.6795999104479.7205976921550.1493303085193161113124.5WETL
2025-03-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025183-10229.53419.00424.269181.235514209980.1862205730.74622057310.0310.776220573TT-2.46625.53490445.4401190163880.7295690196890.17146004824431161113124.5WETL
2025-03-25 16:00:03FORECAST2025183-10228.74220.04824.395181.859729930730.2854332250.85543322510.1210.975433225TT-3.25829.74290445.681653838581.0515452021510.14883937729533161113124.5WETL
2025-03-25 12:00:03FORECAST2025183-10229.78621.18225.484179.957117508690.3444883750.93448837510.0110.944488375TT-2.21430.78690444.944257698980.0708860675380.17909465901665161113124.5WETL
2025-03-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025183-10230.3822.6426.51179.99993432830.3472442820.9472442829.8910.837244282TT-1.6233.3890444.9608914535980.0929312403070.19791869190726161113124.5WETL
2025-03-25 04:00:04FORECAST2025183-10229.7521.66825.709181.231748931960.3854332790.99543327910.2211.215433279TT-2.2530.7590445.4386609126580.7276275591090.1779911252112161114126WETL
2025-03-25 00:00:03FORECAST2025183-10232.30621.50626.906187.581724030520.3318899431.0318899439.7310.761889943TT0.30631.30690447.8779755513384.013722809220.2666429382615162114128WETL
2025-03-24 20:00:03FORECAST2025183-10231.44221.54226.492190.25848149320.3318899431.0318899439.5110.541889943TT-0.55826.44290448.894510280785.4059878766420.23440716262993161114126WETL
2025-03-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025183-10233.11621.8327.473189.442969894180.3043308730.9343308739.4410.374330873TT1.11628.11690448.5855405000984.9813770439220.29877319821541162113126WETL
2025-03-24 12:00:03FORECAST2025183-10232.0921.1126.6191.587508769860.1700788321.1100788329.8810.990078832TT0.09000000000000324.0990449.3966644305486.0987873877320.25837932747276162114128WETL
2025-03-24 08:00:03FORECAST2025183-10232.0921.1126.6191.596836053580.1700788321.1100788329.8710.980078832TT0.09000000000000326.0990449.4001826260386.1036531130490.25837932747276162114128WETL
2025-03-24 04:00:05FORECAST2025183-10230.57821.57826.078193.093541373950.2035434171.31354341710.1611.473543417TT-1.42222.57890449.9636524805486.8850751470230.20444923207391161114126WETL
2025-03-24 00:00:03FORECAST2025183-10228.52622.96425.745211.128954719470.9822839952.1822839959.8212.002283995TT-3.47413.52690456.5877265255296.3988894390710.14303213156095161115127.5WETL
2025-03-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025183-10228.52622.96425.745202.747172826240.9822839952.1822839959.211.382283995TT-3.47411.52690453.5469733925791.9553665992410.14303213156095161115127.5WETL
2025-03-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025183-10229.24622.20825.727201.64405040050.9196855362.0796855369.2911.369685536TT-2.75412.24690453.1419390037491.373375987050.16299288456938161115127.5WETL
2025-03-23 12:00:03FORECAST2025183-10237.68821.03829.363194.955959645980.586614491.406614498.8510.25661449TT5.68823.68890450.661818991587.8592073972920.503437126683051631141210WETL
2025-03-23 08:00:03FORECAST2025183-10237.68821.03829.363197.253960359330.570866451.370866458.8310.20086645TT5.68822.68890451.5187334375689.0638583469890.503437126683051631141210WETL
2025-03-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025183-10238.10220.46229.282195.28729448810.5185042171.4485042178.449.888504217TT6.10222.10290450.7856811178288.0327160594730.522807088801011631141210WETL
2025-03-23 00:00:03FORECAST2025183-10229.46221.68625.574199.972725241490.2507875371.2107875379.0810.290787537TT-2.53810.46290452.5261107972790.4928796190630.16931741374618161114126WETL
2025-03-22 20:00:03FORECAST2025183-10229.46221.68625.574198.9265904670.2507875371.2107875378.9210.130787537TT-2.5387.46290452.1393121984389.9425317917310.16931741374618161114126WETL
2025-03-22 16:00:03FORECAST2025183-10229.76822.24426.006196.818164986830.177165450.947165458.749.68716545TT-2.2324.76890451.3566113383988.8351799982950.17854235639258161113124.5WETL
2025-03-22 12:00:02FORECAST2025183-10232.97231.76632.369194.587143593750.0228346580.5128346589.29.712834658TT0.97211.97290450.5238227007987.6661437802830.29293440876256162113126WETL
2025-03-22 08:00:03FORECAST2025183-10238.64236.26637.454192.720409316560.0228346580.5028346589.259.752834658TT6.64228.64290449.8233785423286.6901456328350.54798457405314163113127.5WETL
2025-03-22 04:00:04FORECAST2025183-10231.94631.35231.649195.2185581415200.539.229.75TT-0.05399999999999824.94690450.7599941394887.996716123790.25294480560564162113126WETL