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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, March 31, 2025

[ Sunday, March 30, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 1, 2025 ]

DAY 182 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/01/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.13°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.39°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.76°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.185
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 59

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.50 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.71 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.29 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 162 in
SWE DAY: 89
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 437.04 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 70.64 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -103

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-01 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025182-10330.1299825.3900427.76001161.622052083330.50.719.2910TT-1.8700259.1299889437.04237134114 70.6356849035210.1849764915302216 1113124.5WETL
2025-04-01 00:00:01FORECAST2025182-10225.46620.17422.82162.596787663950.4043309270.6143309279.299.904330927TT-6.53454.46690438.0487250567571.2253155345190.081485007741385161113124.5WETL
2025-03-31 12:00:02FORECAST2025182-10226.5120.33623.423160.611149369640.421260070.631260079.299.92126007TT-5.4955.5190437.2404752526970.2256952812610.099664450589026161113124.5WETL
2025-03-31 08:00:01FORECAST2025182-10227.19420.08423.639160.352257457030.3531497970.5631497979.299.853149797TT-4.80656.19490437.1347931418270.0955508933010.11307784242074161113124.5WETL
2025-03-31 04:00:03FORECAST2025182-10228.02220.31824.17160.512605814190.3578742090.5678742099.299.857874209TT-3.97857.02290437.2002570391870.1761525199910.13097275079338161113124.5WETL
2025-03-31 00:00:02FORECAST2025182-10329.49820.4824.989163.964230859610.3610238170.6610238179.299.951023817TT-2.50255.49889437.9964940277771.8157582624680.16750381646785161113124.5WETL
2025-03-30 20:00:01FORECAST2025182-10329.62421.97425.799163.210385771360.3173230060.5673230069.299.857323006TT-2.37656.62489437.6900228306871.435557474470.17089995778549161113124.5WETL
2025-03-30 16:00:01FORECAST2025182-10329.64222.74826.195163.180489965110.3157482020.5657482029.299.855748202TT-2.35856.64289437.6778567684271.4204871143490.17138868379829161113124.5WETL
2025-03-30 12:00:02FORECAST2025182-10328.9421.52425.232163.324317585040.2618111650.5118111659.299.801811165TT-3.0655.9489437.7363787766671.4929953458450.1529891859119161113124.5WETL
2025-03-30 08:00:01FORECAST2025182-10329.10221.225.151163.370598967930.2535434440.5335434449.299.823543444TT-2.89856.10289437.7552056584971.5163301497560.15711474778046161113124.5WETL
2025-03-30 04:00:03FORECAST2025182-10329.94821.68625.817162.915559308060.2539371450.4839371459.299.773937145TT-2.05256.94889437.5700031793571.2869618043920.17983305888134161112123WETL
2025-03-30 00:00:02FORECAST2025182-10330.25421.59625.925161.059823655110.1736221410.2936221419.299.583622141TT-1.74653.25489436.8124928614670.3529430706170.18853347613357161112123WETL
2025-03-29 20:00:01FORECAST2025182-10330.79421.45226.123160.859573387290.1590552040.3090552049.299.599055204TT-1.20654.79489436.7305371666670.2522878938320.20450597041624161112123WETL
2025-03-29 16:00:02FORECAST2025182-10330.12820.69625.412160.921480554540.1602363070.3302363079.299.620236307TT-1.87253.12889436.7558781382770.2834025509070.18492004319184161112123WETL
2025-03-29 12:00:02FORECAST2025182-10330.63220.64225.637161.920469753410.3177167070.5277167079.299.817716707TT-1.36854.63289437.1642521508970.7858410676690.19963185277027161113124.5WETL
2025-03-29 08:00:02FORECAST2025182-10329.24620.7524.998162.138880911980.3511812920.5611812929.299.851181292TT-2.75452.24689437.2533978826870.8957766076570.16084261298434161113124.5WETL
2025-03-29 04:00:03FORECAST2025182-10329.60621.66825.637161.915669714710.3208663150.5608663159.299.850866315TT-2.39453.60689437.1622924329170.7834253532920.1704121221867161113124.5WETL
2025-03-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025182-10328.74222.17225.457169.78902227090.4822837250.7022837259.9510.652283725TT-3.25846.74289440.3448468897974.7657210154450.14804496896163161113124.5WETL
2025-03-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025182-10328.74221.05624.899159.312081887330.5295278450.76952784510.1910.959527845TT-3.25848.74289436.0957932432169.4753287238830.14804496896163161113124.5WETL
2025-03-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025182-10328.23820.96624.602159.254812440320.5500002970.77000029710.1910.960000297TT-3.76250.23889436.0722547801469.4466051454360.13594557629207161113124.5WETL
2025-03-28 12:00:02FORECAST2025182-10328.23821.36224.8165.575945325610.6440948360.94409483610.1911.134094836TT-3.76250.23889438.6497616927472.629848959130.13594557629207161113124.5WETL
2025-03-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025182-10328.65221.43425.043165.10853646510.6492129490.96921294910.0511.019212949TT-3.34849.65289438.4605845877272.3935854189120.1458332487365161113124.5WETL
2025-03-28 04:00:03FORECAST2025182-10327.96821.23624.602164.939801840890.6622050820.9822050829.9810.962205082TT-4.03250.96889438.3922364496472.3083286085870.12974937752595161113124.5WETL
2025-03-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025182-10327.75220.7524.251169.790736855930.409449040.6494490410.1410.78944904TT-4.24846.75289440.3455330482374.7665925274760.12493489978988161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 20:00:01FORECAST2025182-10327.91421.07424.494167.121849366840.3803151660.65031516610.0710.720315166TT-4.08644.91489439.2738470162373.412257691840.12853391704067161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025182-10327.96820.6624.314167.055187413430.4362207080.7062207089.9410.646220708TT-4.03244.96889439.2469859459973.3784875579930.12974937752595161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 12:00:01FORECAST2025182-10327.71620.78624.251169.24848893190.6448822380.9848822389.8210.804882238TT-4.28443.71689440.1283822407374.4910636302860.12414474385776161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 08:00:03FORECAST2025182-10327.80621.23624.521169.011570927060.6448822381.0348822389.810.834882238TT-4.19443.80689440.0334111684174.3707380819640.12612668986766161114126WETL
2025-03-27 04:00:04FORECAST2025182-10330.03821.79425.916168.339888779450.6011814270.9911814279.8410.831181427TT-1.96249.03889439.763849417574.0297975001640.182365494523161114126WETL
2025-03-27 00:00:02FORECAST2025182-10329.28221.52425.403169.659786662770.4177167610.76771676110.0310.797716761TT-2.71837.28289440.2931195907874.7000367388570.16178350583118161113124.5WETL
2025-03-26 20:00:02FORECAST2025182-10330.84821.77626.312172.97431916950.4177167610.65771676110.0910.747716761TT-1.15238.84889441.6144283411976.3879550777470.20614625203013161113124.5WETL
2025-03-26 16:00:02FORECAST2025182-10331.24421.8326.537173.421702858560.527559340.7575593410.0910.84755934TT-0.75636.24489441.791923297176.6163076473390.21841084207861161113124.5WETL
2025-03-26 12:00:03FORECAST2025182-10330.99222.85626.924171.824615412580.4850396320.77503963210.0510.825039632TT-1.00838.99289441.1573687458475.8016952211780.21055821987786161113124.5WETL
2025-03-26 08:00:02FORECAST2025182-10328.45422.38825.421171.117940513680.4850396320.7350396329.9510.685039632TT-3.54638.45489440.8757702421775.4417538262220.14104576918881161113124.5WETL
2025-03-26 04:00:04FORECAST2025182-10328.9422.24425.592171.032220043420.5145672070.6945672079.8610.554567207TT-3.0637.9489440.8415776352575.3981137103990.1529891859119161113124.5WETL
2025-03-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025182-10328.7622.53225.646177.959227428620.5208664230.80086642310.110.900866423TT-3.2428.7689443.5807892295178.9392945534610.14848998549448161113124.5WETL
2025-03-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025182-10328.52621.52425.025179.879277531510.5248034330.7648034339.9210.684803433TT-3.47423.52689444.3315605787879.926040101360.1427742242416161113124.5WETL
2025-03-25 16:00:03FORECAST2025182-10330.00222.49626.249179.862263418330.5555121110.75551211110.0210.775512111TT-1.99829.00289444.3249238451279.917286495960.18134986437454161113124.5WETL
2025-03-25 12:00:03FORECAST2025182-10330.05623.37826.717177.619046451620.5712601510.66126015110.0310.691260151TT-1.94429.05689443.447390597578.7647026693880.18287463656641161113124.5WETL
2025-03-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025182-10330.36224.94427.653177.724184354170.578740470.668740479.9110.57874047TT-1.63831.36289443.4886317019678.8186553395790.19166502844675161113124.5WETL
2025-03-25 04:00:04FORECAST2025182-10329.44423.28826.366178.566970387560.5562995130.66629951310.2510.916299513TT-2.55629.44489443.8188229508179.25138261530.16606169663161161113124.5WETL
2025-03-25 00:00:03FORECAST2025182-10329.96624.00826.987185.200132197240.6531499590.7831499599.7410.523149959TT-2.03426.96689446.3930715522482.6720558634060.18033777499281161113124.5WETL
2025-03-24 20:00:03FORECAST2025182-10329.08423.50426.294187.810232673870.6531499590.7831499599.5210.303149959TT-2.91623.08489447.3941880544884.0252065554480.15665278173697161113124.5WETL
2025-03-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025182-10329.01224.58426.798187.44476949110.582677480.742677489.4210.16267748TT-2.98823.01289447.2544121832283.8355001955630.15481384382833161113124.5WETL
2025-03-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025182-10328.5823.14425.862190.394725251780.6523625571.0223625579.8910.912362557TT-3.4219.5889448.3789643122985.3689897189180.14407989753806161114126WETL
2025-03-24 08:00:03FORECAST2025182-10328.56222.65825.61190.40405253550.6523625571.0223625579.8810.902362557TT-3.43821.56289448.3825066181485.373846346120.14364378390758161114126WETL
2025-03-24 04:00:05FORECAST2025182-10327.9522.49625.223191.520254453910.66929171.159291710.211.3592917TT-4.0519.9589448.8058112188685.9554031650280.12934334536804161114126WETL
2025-03-24 00:00:03FORECAST2025182-10329.4824.06226.771202.544932750990.5338585561.4038585569.7111.113858556TT-2.5213.4889452.9229342273591.7372452544590.1670222182137161114126WETL
2025-03-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025182-10329.4824.33226.906194.163150857760.5338585561.4038585569.0910.493858556TT-2.5211.4889449.80332220787.3352303060.1670222182137161114126WETL
2025-03-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025182-10328.74223.91826.33193.638523772850.4826774261.3226774269.2210.542677426TT-3.25810.74289449.6058440191487.0610119155120.14804496896163161114126WETL
2025-03-23 12:00:03FORECAST2025182-10328.9421.93825.439194.132043151220.3314962420.8414962428.929.761496242TT-3.0613.9489449.7916200967987.3189662016860.1529891859119161113124.5WETL
2025-03-23 08:00:03FORECAST2025182-10328.9421.93825.439194.254126784480.3204726140.8204726148.99.720472614TT-3.0612.9489449.8375402638887.3827985788380.1529891859119161113124.5WETL
2025-03-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025182-10328.81422.60425.709193.713520673210.4039372260.9539372268.519.463937226TT-3.18611.81489449.634090197987.100202626930.14983038268876161113124.5WETL
2025-03-23 00:00:03FORECAST2025182-10329.1222.87425.997197.462556846570.3275592320.9875592329.1410.127559232TT-2.889.1289451.039259001489.0633653205990.15757760650279161113124.5WETL
2025-03-22 20:00:03FORECAST2025182-10329.1222.87425.997196.416422072080.3275592320.9875592328.989.967559232TT-2.886.1289450.6485043125588.5147668292070.15757760650279161113124.5WETL
2025-03-22 16:00:03FORECAST2025182-10329.31822.26225.79195.051758227130.2460631250.8260631258.779.596063125TT-2.6823.31889450.1372087539587.800054010910.16272796879756161113124.5WETL
2025-03-22 12:00:02FORECAST2025182-10335.49222.58629.039194.406641437430.149606380.609606389.179.77960638TT3.4927.49289449.8948866599787.462553915440.37298032647284162113126WETL
2025-03-22 08:00:03FORECAST2025182-10341.57624.49433.035192.951157316560.1480315760.6080315769.219.818031576TT9.57617.57689449.3467095037486.7019676351360.6276406576077163113127.5WETL
2025-03-22 04:00:04FORECAST2025182-10341.52224.1732.846195.218558141520.1381890510.5881890519.259.838189051TT9.52220.52289450.1997984194487.8873555230470.62545725236963163113127.5WETL
2025-03-22 00:00:03FORECAST2025182-10330.16426.88828.526201.391952879280.0535433360.5735433369.339.903543336TT-1.8368.16489452.4977365986991.1294028470620.18594804454641161113124.5WETL
2025-03-21 20:00:03FORECAST2025182-10329.46225.98827.725188.88239568920.0535433360.5835433369.4910.073543336TT-2.538-3.53889447.8035020438484.5821982640560.16654151156227161113124.5WETL
2025-03-21 16:00:02FORECAST2025182-10331.24426.79829.021188.010263219230.0535433360.5435433369.299.833543336TT-0.7565.24489447.4706372612684.1290722943640.21841084207861161113124.5WETL
2025-03-21 12:00:03FORECAST2025182-10333.9830.21832.099197.707423233790.0066929170.6666929179.8210.486692917TT1.988.9889451.130572199989.1918629716260.3136933167934162113126WETL
2025-03-21 08:00:03FORECAST2025182-10333.9830.21832.099197.668020835330.0066929170.6666929179.8710.536692917TT1.9810.9889451.1158824734389.1711836559070.3136933167934162113126WETL
2025-03-21 04:00:05FORECAST2025182-10333.1732.37832.774198.982785463650.0133858340.74338583410.3511.093385834TT1.173.1789451.6052507723289.8616707286850.28369583612333162113126WETL