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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, March 28, 2025

[ Thursday, March 27, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, March 29, 2025 ]

DAY 179 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/29/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.23°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.41°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.274
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 50

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.61 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.43 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.90 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 160 in
SWE DAY: 86
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 434.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 69.39 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -106

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-29 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025179-10632.2300426.4099229.31998159.730651666670.610000000000011.439.4710.9TT0.2300450.2300486434.41457595689 69.3893233110930.2736222720951516 2114128WETL
2025-03-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025179-10526.7822.2824.53166.679022219891.2732290342.0932290349.4711.563229034TT-5.2244.7887437.8838135267772.986045884560.10837937716751161115127.5WETL
2025-03-28 12:00:01FORECAST2025179-10528.61623.19825.907161.51404352241.507874832.327874839.4711.79787483TT-3.38446.61687435.7707232758370.3830915649590.15345163265009161115127.5WETL
2025-03-28 08:00:01FORECAST2025179-10528.50824.87226.69160.979497849061.3724416862.1924416869.4711.662441686TT-3.49246.50887435.5504433889970.1146916646960.15049949995177161115127.5WETL
2025-03-28 04:00:03FORECAST2025179-10530.43424.90827.671160.610512229411.3019692072.1219692079.4711.591969207TT-1.56648.43487435.3982142483369.9295302141930.20882458176521161115127.5WETL
2025-03-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025179-10630.48825.01627.752166.798817130311.2909455792.2809455799.4711.750945579TT-1.51245.48886437.3234627506372.9450362901380.21063107654972161115127.5WETL
2025-03-27 20:00:01FORECAST2025179-10629.0323.86426.447164.18741909511.1468510132.2068510139.4711.676851013TT-2.9744.0386436.2548262570271.6275539909230.16512024231922161115127.5WETL
2025-03-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025179-10628.54423.84626.195163.748670638381.019685592.079685599.4711.54968559TT-3.45643.54486436.0745850542671.406633601820.15147932324532161115127.5WETL
2025-03-27 12:00:01FORECAST2025179-10628.9423.79226.366164.686519161670.8952760741.9552760749.4711.425276074TT-3.0643.9486436.4596162990971.8790149629350.16253607454453161115127.5WETL
2025-03-27 08:00:02FORECAST2025179-10628.95823.57626.267164.206919623860.7846460931.9446460939.4711.414646093TT-3.04243.95886436.2628325612971.6373758812680.16305079698749161115127.5WETL
2025-03-27 04:00:03FORECAST2025179-10629.87623.34226.609163.924724255940.7452759931.9752759939.4711.445275993TT-2.12444.87686436.1469333491171.4952657843270.1906968909443161115127.5WETL
2025-03-27 00:00:01FORECAST2025179-10629.28223.2726.276165.9671279080.7303153552.1703153559.4711.640315355TT-2.71835.28286436.9838877729672.524960795750.17249619437278161115127.5WETL
2025-03-26 20:00:01FORECAST2025179-10629.71423.16226.438169.865925559430.8594492832.2294492839.4711.699449283TT-2.28634.71486438.569566942174.4980254108170.18562012259342161115127.5WETL
2025-03-26 16:00:01FORECAST2025179-10629.2123.52226.366169.729527974590.8165358742.2265358749.4711.696535874TT-2.7934.2186438.5143573718874.4288348868110.17036770109526161115127.5WETL
2025-03-26 12:00:02FORECAST2025179-10629.67823.55826.618168.034706001470.795276022.185276029.4711.65527602TT-2.32233.67886437.8267474708873.570088790850.18450341901539161115127.5WETL
2025-03-26 08:00:02FORECAST2025179-10630.6524.22427.437167.327120464620.6822838332.0922838339.4711.562283833TT-1.3535.6586437.538794367573.2121065530780.21610517032936161115127.5WETL
2025-03-26 04:00:04FORECAST2025179-10630.81223.66627.239167.306915162380.6389767231.9989767239.4711.468976723TT-1.18835.81286437.5305641838873.2018889828580.2216606159005161115127.5WETL
2025-03-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025179-10629.94824.15227.05173.588407289780.9779532842.2479532849.4611.707953284TT-2.05226.94886440.0689530965276.3908686657070.19298026634128161115127.5WETL
2025-03-25 20:00:01FORECAST2025179-10629.6624.94427.302175.63031570350.8751973232.0651973239.4611.525197323TT-2.3422.6686440.8854164125877.4328448736110.1839466339352161115127.5WETL
2025-03-25 16:00:02FORECAST2025179-10631.11825.98828.553175.964450160270.8724414162.1724414169.4611.632441416TT-0.88224.11886441.01861839677.6035986964940.23237338253804161115127.5WETL
2025-03-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025179-10630.00224.94427.473174.254007880720.8129925652.1829925659.4611.642992565TT-1.99823.00286440.3355608588276.7302362920530.19470368260706161115127.5WETL
2025-03-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025179-10630.30824.2627.284174.375975914860.8468508512.0568508519.4611.516850851TT-1.69224.30886440.3843665736876.7924536989310.20464502599329161115127.5WETL
2025-03-25 04:00:03FORECAST2025179-10628.97623.50426.24175.05789163940.9543312242.4043312249.4611.864331224TT-3.02423.97686440.6569578961977.1404779855390.16356657508012161115127.5WETL
2025-03-25 00:00:02FORECAST2025179-10629.24623.70226.474180.735121302110.4877955392.1577955399.1911.347795539TT-2.75422.24686442.9081579023980.0490596441820.17142984155086161115127.5WETL
2025-03-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025179-10629.323.28826.294183.218551564560.5622050282.1222050289.0111.132205028TT-2.720.386443.8827558662881.3275555943040.17303094981341161115127.5WETL
2025-03-24 16:00:01FORECAST2025179-10629.26423.16226.213183.131219112350.5496065962.0196065969.0111.029606596TT-2.73620.26486443.8485872895381.2825328916260.17196249153517161115127.5WETL
2025-03-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025179-10628.36422.33425.349184.533516860420.8271658012.4871658019.0111.497165801TT-3.63619.36486444.3963171591982.0060152852040.1466223894964161115127.5WETL
2025-03-24 08:00:02FORECAST2025179-10629.19222.89226.042184.398115123860.8271658012.5071658018.9811.487165801TT-2.80819.19286444.3435150301881.9361066390770.1698382110765161115127.5WETL
2025-03-24 04:00:05FORECAST2025179-10629.44423.30626.375184.54210112390.8192917812.4792917819.3311.809291781TT-2.55619.44486444.399664121582.0104477557380.17734685382337161115127.5WETL
2025-03-24 00:00:02FORECAST2025179-10629.06623.57626.321193.652439477690.9157485262.4457485268.8711.315748526TT-2.93413.06686447.9109193560186.7390422019850.16616129684567161115127.5WETL
2025-03-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025179-10628.74223.10825.925185.313889935040.9157485262.3357485268.3610.695748526TT-3.25810.74286444.7002827653282.4091392544550.15694381669862161115127.5WETL
2025-03-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025179-10628.70622.87425.79185.147498134080.8881894562.4881894568.3410.828189456TT-3.29411.70686444.6355214918782.3231543857630.15594077049615161115127.5WETL
2025-03-23 12:00:02FORECAST2025179-10628.83222.47825.655188.765472559930.6570869692.0970869698.4310.527086969TT-3.16812.83286446.0375173836984.1964827483930.15946991233988161115127.5WETL
2025-03-23 08:00:02FORECAST2025179-10628.61622.1925.403189.009838884650.6488192482.0188192488.4910.508819248TT-3.38411.61686446.1317477316484.3232897600850.15345163265009161115127.5WETL
2025-03-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025179-10628.74222.31625.529187.402663438570.6287404971.9587404978.1610.118740497TT-3.25810.74286445.5109291833983.4899347199580.15694381669862161115127.5WETL
2025-03-23 00:00:02FORECAST2025179-10627.84222.42425.133190.417573057790.7011814812.5311814818.2210.751181481TT-4.1585.84286446.6734480525285.0544739275180.13313199251951161115127.5WETL
2025-03-22 20:00:02FORECAST2025179-10627.7721.79424.782189.413899849640.7011814812.5311814818.0610.591181481TT-4.231.7786446.2874298397784.5330425398230.13134035178892161115127.5WETL
2025-03-22 16:00:02FORECAST2025179-10627.89621.8324.863189.464166815980.6826775342.4326775347.9510.382677534TT-4.104-1.10486446.3067862081184.5591433932360.13448668063474161115127.5WETL
2025-03-22 12:00:02FORECAST2025179-10626.40220.31823.36190.557539860.7551185182.7551185188.0210.775118518TT-5.598-0.59886446.7272019068885.1272365839150.10042048475965161115127.5WETL
2025-03-22 08:00:03FORECAST2025179-10626.29420.9323.612190.317854964330.7704728572.7904728578.0310.820472857TT-5.7060.29486446.6351399417785.0026417854110.098226612884187161115127.5WETL
2025-03-22 04:00:04FORECAST2025179-10626.56421.16423.864192.846687619530.7818901862.5218901868.3410.861890186TT-5.4360.56486447.6036359083286.3188785513750.10377777724295161115127.5WETL
2025-03-22 00:00:03FORECAST2025179-10629.58821.1125.349199.361759981010.5263782372.1763782378.7610.936378237TT-2.412-2.41286450.0703168365589.7268104797450.18172994909253161115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 20:00:03FORECAST2025179-10629.69619.45424.575186.533322882080.5216538252.1816538258.9211.101653825TT-2.304-9.30486445.1740632802183.0397972845750.18506124872671161115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 16:00:02FORECAST2025179-10629.2119.83224.521186.072066723360.5779530682.0779530688.8210.897953068TT-2.79-3.7986444.9950261431482.8011441960720.17036770109526161115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 12:00:03FORECAST2025179-10627.93220.76824.35193.117554118860.2948820492.5048820498.9311.434882049TT-4.068-7.06886447.7070043804586.4600816478350.13539503063488161115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 08:00:02FORECAST2025179-10628.27420.1224.197192.827428618490.2948820492.5048820498.9811.484882049TT-3.726-4.72686447.5962835515986.3088404164460.1442334389208161115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 04:00:04FORECAST2025179-10628.11220.04824.08193.276963329360.3157482022.5957482029.3611.955748202TT-3.888-4.88886447.7678051235386.5432016509280.13999959820824161115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 00:00:03FORECAST2025179-10631.20821.61426.411196.894203443020.6003940252.0603940259.3211.380394025TT-0.7922.20886449.140870807188.4332339912680.23557805578238161115127.5WETL
2025-03-20 20:00:03FORECAST2025179-10631.20823.48627.347186.955607613690.6003940252.0603940259.3211.380394025TT-0.7923.20886445.3377897889683.2583970833310.23557805578238161115127.5WETL
2025-03-20 16:00:03FORECAST2025179-10631.31622.22626.771186.680420237790.5582680182.0182680189.2111.228268018TT-0.6843.31686445.2311151983283.1159316881630.2394555814012161115127.5WETL
2025-03-20 12:00:03FORECAST2025179-10631.9125.32228.616187.025572428620.8437012431.7137012439.1410.853701243TT-0.0910.9186445.3648993065483.294625232420.261390668320811621151210WETL
2025-03-20 08:00:03FORECAST2025179-10631.9125.32228.616186.104776369450.8437012431.7137012438.9910.703701243TT-0.0913.9186445.0077293430882.8180639520690.261390668320811621151210WETL
2025-03-20 04:00:04FORECAST2025179-10633.45825.89829.678189.234432814980.82677211.7267721910.7267721TT1.4587.45886446.2183020608684.4398673021510.323014395585131621151210WETL
2025-03-20 00:00:03FORECAST2025179-10633.11628.86830.992189.346430715110.6799216271.3999216278.139.529921627TT1.1169.11686446.2614455243684.4980118758020.30888866447946162114128WETL
2025-03-19 20:00:03FORECAST2025179-10632.25228.29230.272185.292617292060.6956696671.4156696677.849.255669667TT0.25223.25286444.6920047759482.3981454537860.27447181664778162114128WETL
2025-03-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025179-10632.9926.79829.894185.194111605040.6448822381.4348822387.659.084882238TT0.9924.9986444.6536666585482.3472407687540.30375338304197162114128WETL
2025-03-19 12:00:03FORECAST2025179-10644.97826.54635.762181.742576976820.212598541.012598547.78.71259854TT12.97850.97886443.304265302880.5672595609490.81018386174291641141212WETL
2025-03-19 08:00:03FORECAST2025179-10644.97826.54635.762181.459556009230.212598541.012598547.698.70259854TT12.97848.97886443.193090607980.421621448070.81018386174291641141212WETL
2025-03-19 04:00:04FORECAST2025179-10637.05826.4231.739186.943672288950.2405513111.3305513117.79.030551311TT5.05827.05886445.3331646848783.2522171982510.48355639850198162114128WETL
2025-03-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025179-10631.11827.39229.255191.172088553270.2751969991.2351969997.969.195196999TT-0.8828.11886446.9629915662785.4468486037420.23237338253804161114126WETL
2025-03-18 20:00:03FORECAST2025179-10631.11827.37429.246190.47842335060.2759844011.2359844017.819.045984401TT-0.8827.11886446.6968197834385.0861059480730.23237338253804161114126WETL
2025-03-18 16:00:03FORECAST2025179-10627.96825.6126.789188.853228017420.0259842661.0559842667.778.825984266TT-4.0325.96886446.0713635859784.2420169393440.13630756426982161114126WETL
2025-03-18 12:00:03FORECAST2025179-10632.50428.25630.38194.625215287320.0492126251.3592126258.6510.009212625TT0.5046.50486448.2810624868887.246798295740.28431270133978162114128WETL
2025-03-18 08:00:03FORECAST2025179-10632.50428.25630.38194.456449845380.0492126251.3592126258.589.939212625TT0.5044.50486448.2169124529387.1586695562560.28431270133978162114128WETL
2025-03-18 04:00:04FORECAST2025179-10631.58630.05630.821196.983207633830.0755905921.4855905928.7710.255590592TT-0.4142.58686449.1744970782488.4798332217820.24929981274491162114128WETL