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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 27, 2025

[ Wednesday, March 26, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, March 28, 2025 ]

DAY 178 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/28/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.43°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.09°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.76°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.585
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 48

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.45 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.83 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.52 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.35 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 156 in
SWE DAY: 85
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 67.52 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -107

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-28 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025178-10738.4299629.0899433.75995156.193913333330.449999999999930.829999999999939.5210.35TT6.4299648.4299685432.31127528778 67.5243898653230.5849446307825616 3113127.5WETL
2025-03-28 00:00:01FORECAST2025178-10635.18626.92431.055162.262768807290.6228349821.0028349829.5210.522834982TT3.18645.18686435.4626710724470.6593787204340.44030739932326162114128WETL
2025-03-27 12:00:01FORECAST2025178-10635.25826.88831.073161.395567152230.692913761.072913769.5210.59291376TT3.25845.25886435.1044772838970.223933881710.44350278209313162114128WETL
2025-03-27 08:00:02FORECAST2025178-10634.9728.0431.505161.326134310490.7944886181.1744886189.5210.694488618TT2.9744.9786435.0757642284170.1890911751510.43074536174654162114128WETL
2025-03-27 04:00:03FORECAST2025178-10635.45628.2231.838161.191432512580.8606303861.2406303869.5210.760630386TT3.45645.45686435.0200455951570.1215043211720.45230842849869162114128WETL
2025-03-27 00:00:01FORECAST2025178-10736.44627.93232.189163.109560779420.7976382261.4476382269.5210.967638226TT4.44636.44685435.1945668017370.9843946446190.49660261979919162114128WETL
2025-03-26 20:00:01FORECAST2025178-10736.4127.96832.189166.522443677870.6582680721.3782680729.5210.898268072TT4.4135.4185436.5989192960372.703518948290.49498786283084162114128WETL
2025-03-26 16:00:01FORECAST2025178-10735.94227.73431.838166.558060788720.704724791.424724799.5210.94472479TT3.94234.94285436.6135111352972.7214997288480.47401311497069162114128WETL
2025-03-26 12:00:02FORECAST2025178-10734.93427.62631.28164.926445591980.6846460391.4046460399.5210.924646039TT2.93433.93485435.9437041374271.8986456015870.42915547196006162114128WETL
2025-03-26 08:00:01FORECAST2025178-10734.73627.66231.199164.672399077630.6649609891.4249609899.5210.944960989TT2.73634.73685435.8391635537771.770680674390.42043227861737162114128WETL
2025-03-26 04:00:03FORECAST2025178-10735.11427.93231.523164.79556432220.6562995671.3662995679.5210.886299567TT3.11435.11485435.8898546911571.8327145861480.43711589905343162114128WETL
2025-03-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025178-10735.11427.5931.352169.464438036650.5728349551.2728349559.5210.792834955TT3.11427.11485437.7997759563274.1914930050090.43711589905343162114128WETL
2025-03-25 20:00:01FORECAST2025178-10733.87226.74430.308171.867766245360.4976380641.1876380649.5210.707638064TT1.87222.87285438.7741233982775.4111284747250.38287605611384162114128WETL
2025-03-25 16:00:02FORECAST2025178-10733.58427.15830.371172.348378960490.5893703971.2993703979.5210.819370397TT1.58422.58485438.9682587939575.6554678182460.3705795634162114128WETL
2025-03-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025178-10733.58427.53630.56170.911430451460.527559341.367559349.5210.88755934TT1.58422.58485438.3871220177274.9253701155460.3705795634162114128WETL
2025-03-25 08:00:01FORECAST2025178-10734.05227.19430.623170.894952480450.5397640711.2097640719.5210.729764071TT2.05224.05285438.3804456186174.9170054223490.39062262755875162114128WETL
2025-03-25 04:00:03FORECAST2025178-10733.85427.28430.569170.911622125040.6641735871.4541735879.5210.974173587TT1.85424.85485438.3871996766974.9254674155970.38210391195776162114128WETL
2025-03-25 00:00:02FORECAST2025178-10733.83626.45630.146178.476683689960.8901579611.6701579619.2510.920157961TT1.83622.83685441.4230186024578.7837164645780.381332236268181621151210WETL
2025-03-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025178-10733.54825.9729.759180.497758762970.8901579611.5601579619.0710.630157961TT1.54820.54885442.2242396819679.8204841332540.369051462533791621151210WETL
2025-03-24 16:00:01FORECAST2025178-10732.59425.53829.066180.438676289460.8366146251.4666146259.0710.536614625TT0.59420.59485442.2008757480779.7901406740210.32937621622103162114128WETL
2025-03-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025178-10732.77424.7128.742180.35561342360.9444886991.6644886999.0710.734488699TT0.77420.77485442.1680229312679.7474850120650.336732783954561621151210WETL
2025-03-24 08:00:02FORECAST2025178-10732.8125.53829.174180.326909179230.9169296291.6769296299.0410.716929629TT0.8119.8185442.1566682887779.73274536550.338211733438251621151210WETL
2025-03-24 04:00:05FORECAST2025178-10733.06225.08829.075180.49470334570.8980319811.6580319819.3911.048031981TT1.06220.06285442.2230315150879.8189148859490.348633222858141621151210WETL
2025-03-24 00:00:02FORECAST2025178-10732.03624.27828.157188.911178023280.6157483641.5357483648.9210.455748364TT0.03600000000000114.03685445.5157487232184.1629049192250.306997037820151621151210WETL
2025-03-23 20:00:01FORECAST2025178-10729.94823.03626.492180.56531251490.5657483371.4257483378.419.835748337TT-2.05211.94885442.2509492538979.8551808620390.22989678750146161114126WETL
2025-03-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025178-10730.30823.95427.131180.569466421480.5940948091.6040948098.410.004094809TT-1.69213.30885442.2525914863479.8573144682070.24236996078499161115127.5WETL
2025-03-23 12:00:02FORECAST2025178-10731.47825.0728.274185.321316188720.8204728841.4404728848.499.930472884TT-0.52214.47885444.11991706882.3048875766670.28531417119394162114128WETL
2025-03-23 08:00:02FORECAST2025178-10730.59624.29627.446185.544550447150.8224413891.3724413898.559.922441389TT-1.40412.59685444.207087968382.4202044425160.25260624784545162114128WETL
2025-03-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025178-10730.8324.4427.635183.997115622310.7582681261.3382681268.219.548268126TT-1.1711.8385443.6018116313281.6214538249960.26108768407789162114128WETL
2025-03-23 00:00:02FORECAST2025178-10730.81224.85427.833186.199420764621.1751974851.8251974858.2810.105197485TT-1.1887.81285444.4625237395182.7586644718780.260430114709761621151210WETL
2025-03-22 20:00:02FORECAST2025178-10729.31823.41426.366185.041052727151.1751974851.8251974858.129.945197485TT-2.6824.31885444.0104067906982.160153094360.20895716454626161115127.5WETL
2025-03-22 16:00:02FORECAST2025178-10729.2123.28826.249185.199560803721.1192919431.7492919438.019.759291943TT-2.791.2185444.0723518882782.2420045347840.20548357490108161115127.5WETL
2025-03-22 12:00:02FORECAST2025178-10729.0323.07226.051185.636326170691.1842526082.0042526088.0810.084252608TT-2.973.0385444.242911199482.4676219624280.19977089735641161115127.5WETL
2025-03-22 08:00:02FORECAST2025178-10730.63223.64827.14185.398688406971.1917329272.0217329278.0910.111732927TT-1.3683.63285444.1501357961282.3448526323760.253901584233111621151210WETL
2025-03-22 04:00:04FORECAST2025178-10730.90224.29627.599187.801750469081.0240163011.7440163018.410.144016301TT-1.0983.90285445.085732537183.5878796792830.263726458260321621151210WETL
2025-03-22 00:00:03FORECAST2025178-10729.64223.6326.636195.920081576571.1586620431.6486620438.8210.468662043TT-2.358-2.35885448.2045817404487.8122782175770.21958287828552161115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 20:00:03FORECAST2025178-10728.36422.96425.664183.066610379841.1633864551.6633864558.9810.643386455TT-3.636-8.63685443.2366991387681.141840107280.17947691289304161115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 16:00:02FORECAST2025178-10729.7522.2826.015182.168684294831.0716541221.5016541228.8810.381654122TT-2.25-3.2585442.8835509945880.6795137805040.22319244999266161115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 12:00:03FORECAST2025178-10728.90423.39626.15191.1030008421.2696857252.2096857258.9911.199685725TT-3.096-5.09685446.3617497660285.301069841370.19582934937627161115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 08:00:02FORECAST2025178-10728.47223.23425.853190.887544022251.2696857252.2096857259.0411.249685725TT-3.528-2.52885446.2787961978585.1890633554120.18267698147768161115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 04:00:04FORECAST2025178-10728.34623.16225.754191.142016942041.311024332.281024339.4211.70102433TT-3.654-2.65485446.37676659885.3213554836080.1789470065184161115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 00:00:03FORECAST2025178-10729.51623.32426.42192.722850721561.0255911051.4655911059.3710.835591105TT-2.4840.51685446.9839606797986.1440231290210.21541431656836161114126WETL
2025-03-20 20:00:03FORECAST2025178-10729.78625.1627.473182.849368564091.0255911051.4655911059.3710.835591105TT-2.2141.78685443.151333274581.0299414675790.22440309167078161114126WETL
2025-03-20 16:00:02FORECAST2025178-10730.05625.28627.671182.852697660661.0011816431.4711816439.2610.731181643TT-1.9442.05685443.1526418090481.0316560302330.23360061319672161114126WETL
2025-03-20 12:00:03FORECAST2025178-10736.03229.26432.648181.803826506460.7488193020.8688193029.210.068819302TT4.0329.03285442.7398246512680.49179426840.47804292657215162113126WETL
2025-03-20 08:00:03FORECAST2025178-10736.4129.26432.837180.883030447290.7488193020.8688193029.059.918819302TT4.4112.4185442.3765079201780.0184033512910.49498786283084162113126WETL
2025-03-20 04:00:04FORECAST2025178-10734.68229.08431.883184.054094312640.7562996210.8962996219.069.956299621TT2.6823.68285443.6241409555481.6508394787950.41805980307539162113126WETL
2025-03-20 00:00:03FORECAST2025178-10735.43829.94832.693184.524251544470.503937280.723937288.198.91393728TT3.4386.43885443.8082671254981.893388320580.45150687855003162113126WETL
2025-03-19 20:00:03FORECAST2025178-10738.2130.9234.565180.183505698160.5082679910.7182679917.98.618267991TT6.2121.2185442.0999292507179.6591151213040.57527777084694163113127.5WETL
2025-03-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025178-10738.73229.0333.881180.353340582070.6082680450.7882680457.718.498268045TT6.73221.73285442.1671238852379.7463178882670.59813428906858163113127.5WETL
2025-03-19 12:00:03FORECAST2025178-10741.28828.97635.132180.846261578790.7429137870.8029137877.768.562913787TT9.28836.28885442.3619824479179.9995107902890.7039945436421164113129WETL
2025-03-19 08:00:03FORECAST2025178-10741.28828.97635.132180.56324061120.7429137870.8029137877.758.552913787TT9.28834.28885442.2501301275479.8541166565540.7039945436421164113129WETL
2025-03-19 04:00:04FORECAST2025178-10741.28829.87635.582185.181509023221.0712604211.0912604217.768.851260421TT9.28820.28885444.065298494782.2326820800950.70399454364211641141212WETL
2025-03-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025178-10735.04229.04832.045188.662416815390.5094490940.9594490948.028.979449094TT3.0427.04285445.419433780384.0339068735370.4339284854174162113126WETL
2025-03-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025178-10735.07829.06632.072187.960437794710.5106301970.9606301977.878.830630197TT3.0786.07885445.1473143315683.6700840849010.43552166867872162113126WETL
2025-03-18 16:00:03FORECAST2025178-10734.9728.0431.505188.595057368810.555118411.025118417.838.85511841TT2.977.9785445.3933431917683.9989831109350.43074536174654162114128WETL
2025-03-18 12:00:03FORECAST2025178-10736.64431.4634.052194.238011862370.7972445251.3072445258.7110.017244525TT4.6443.64485447.5636462820886.9338728357040.505484068717081631141210WETL
2025-03-18 08:00:03FORECAST2025178-10736.64431.4634.052194.069246420430.7972445251.3072445258.649.947244525TT4.6441.64485447.4991886515586.8458303153590.505484068717081631141210WETL
2025-03-18 04:00:04FORECAST2025178-10735.31231.8233.566196.324399643440.8106303591.4106303598.8310.240630359TT3.3121.31285448.3582352161588.0236613540010.44590174383052162114128WETL
2025-03-18 00:00:03FORECAST2025178-10734.48429.26431.874196.617705652230.220472560.840472568.499.33047256TT2.484-6.51685448.4696019324288.1770641867230.40938683358971162113126WETL
2025-03-17 20:00:03FORECAST2025178-10732.7229.26430.992196.040503688660.220472560.840472568.489.32047256TT0.72-14.2885448.250362400287.8752268235610.3345190890621162113126WETL
2025-03-17 16:00:03FORECAST2025178-10731.35226.40228.877197.386822468490.1043307650.8543307658.889.734330765TT-0.648-18.64885448.7612377334588.5795547632310.28052079143338162113126WETL
2025-03-17 12:00:03FORECAST2025178-10736.26634.80835.537201.529195595110.6405515270.9305515278.929.850551527TT4.266-16.73485450.3221939712390.7530695096450.48852992061839162113126WETL
2025-03-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025178-10736.26634.80835.537200.764609997880.6405515270.9305515278.89.730551527TT4.266-15.73485450.0353123955990.3511639783750.48852992061839162113126WETL
2025-03-17 04:00:05FORECAST2025178-10733.69232.0932.891191.1790261810600.398.899.28TT1.692-18.30885446.3910096378385.3405985185390.37517603896991162112124WETL