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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 26, 2025

[ Tuesday, March 25, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, March 27, 2025 ]

DAY 177 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/27/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.69°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.74°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.72°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.999
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 53

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.37 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.52 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.82 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.34 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 160 in
SWE DAY: 84
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 433.08 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 69.09 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -108

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-27 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025177-10860.6900240.7400850.71505159.532161250.371.528.8210.34TT28.6900252.6900284433.08427980841 69.0908711612360.9985911631069617 51151217.5WETL
2025-03-27 00:00:01FORECAST2025177-10750.75638.33644.546161.55824320.6350397131.7850397138.8210.605039713TT18.75632.75685434.5521862228870.2054877848880.96041454409561651151217.5WETL
2025-03-26 12:00:01FORECAST2025177-10750.16237.29243.727163.48454160.7110240061.8610240068.8210.681024006TT18.16232.16285435.3494620237571.172907234760.95372060286091651151217.5WETL
2025-03-26 08:00:01FORECAST2025177-10750.936.55443.727163.46279520.7539374151.9039374158.8210.723937415TT18.932.985435.3404831576771.1619722406710.961913077749141651151217.5WETL
2025-03-26 04:00:03FORECAST2025177-10750.95436.71643.835163.160964866670.7015751821.8515751828.8210.671575182TT18.95432.95485435.2158092746171.0102313664720.962462996592661651151217.5WETL
2025-03-26 00:00:01FORECAST2025177-10851.27836.51843.898167.92883760.6984255741.8384255748.8210.658425574TT19.27835.27884436.5621772685673.3113789688340.965628226248721751151217.5WETL
2025-03-25 20:00:01FORECAST2025177-10851.38635.40243.394170.4270760.6893704511.8293704518.8210.649370451TT19.38632.38684437.582709212574.5759416392450.966633395490311751151217.5WETL
2025-03-25 16:00:02FORECAST2025177-10851.38635.04243.214170.45187280.712598811.852598818.8210.67259881TT19.38632.38684437.5928062982474.5885133573430.966633395490311751151217.5WETL
2025-03-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025177-10851.15234.95243.052169.10152960.8448823461.9848823468.8210.804882346TT19.15232.15284437.0420291792873.9044756337040.964424311101721751151217.5WETL
2025-03-25 08:00:01FORECAST2025177-10851.13434.75442.944169.05990640.6720476071.8120476078.8210.632047607TT19.13433.13484437.025021904673.883409297650.964249542937541751151217.5WETL
2025-03-25 04:00:03FORECAST2025177-10851.72835.74443.736168.708005850.7929138141.9329138148.8210.752913814TT19.72833.72884436.8811631588273.7053498299530.969658329248891751151217.5WETL
2025-03-25 00:00:02FORECAST2025177-10851.02635.7843.403175.44392240.7818901861.6518901868.8210.471890186TT19.02632.02684439.6126378144777.1273655147810.963186148715021751151217.5WETL
2025-03-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025177-10850.30635.38442.845177.22531680.6657483911.3557483918.8210.175748391TT18.30630.30684440.3272293644778.0371327197850.955421261654991751141214WETL
2025-03-24 16:00:01FORECAST2025177-10850.934.35842.629177.24253680.6295278991.3195278998.8210.139527899TT18.930.984440.3341212576578.0459366913050.961913077749141751141214WETL
2025-03-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025177-10850.70234.26842.485176.67024240.7208665311.4108665318.8210.230866531TT18.70230.70284440.1049125680677.753441584830.959840413688321751141214WETL
2025-03-24 08:00:02FORECAST2025177-10850.14434.28642.215176.8000320.7574807241.4174807248.8210.237480724TT18.14430.14484440.1569236041277.819758178230.953504417126081751141214WETL
2025-03-24 04:00:04FORECAST2025177-10850.12634.48442.305177.015792266670.7633862391.7733862398.8210.593386239TT18.12630.12684440.2433480284277.930025041380.953287424213551751151217.5WETL
2025-03-24 00:00:02FORECAST2025177-10849.78433.81841.801186.065733862330.9137800211.6537800218.6310.283780021TT17.78424.78484443.8260429063482.5808183805830.949008639883791751151217.5WETL
2025-03-23 20:00:01FORECAST2025177-10849.53232.77441.153177.87156880.8535437681.4735437688.249.713543768TT17.53224.53284440.5856697582178.3676642706920.945661283392521751141214WETL
2025-03-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025177-10849.17232.43240.802177.7892081.0074808591.6074808598.249.847480859TT17.17226.17284440.552756719178.3255256993050.940581611278621751151217.5WETL
2025-03-23 12:00:02FORECAST2025177-10849.35232.55840.955181.812917803780.6208664771.3108664778.249.550866477TT17.35226.35284442.1526908501980.3890708382650.943165980329611751141214WETL
2025-03-23 08:00:02FORECAST2025177-10848.95631.65840.307182.07312351130.5523625031.2723625038.279.542362503TT16.95624.95684442.2555937415180.5228573428630.937360202833591751141214WETL
2025-03-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025177-10848.8123240.406180.661615006460.5657483371.3057483377.929.225748337TT16.81223.81284441.6965709832579.797615856650.935138314178641751141214WETL
2025-03-23 00:00:02FORECAST2025177-10848.12832.25240.19180.356793444770.645669641.345669648.029.36566964TT16.12820.12884441.5755841525979.6411564212640.923742976823281751141214WETL
2025-03-22 20:00:02FORECAST2025177-10846.52631.20838.867178.848388719410.645669641.345669647.869.20566964TT14.52617.52684440.9755020866678.8677580129310.891205353980891751141214WETL
2025-03-22 16:00:02FORECAST2025177-10844.27630.75837.517179.277981014040.6283467961.1783467967.99.078346796TT12.27615.27684441.1466391304179.0878787944310.830333321880171741141212WETL
2025-03-22 12:00:01FORECAST2025177-10845.53629.71437.625179.516223866060.8169295751.5369295757.89.336929575TT13.53616.53684441.241467669579.2100020891490.866681822589041751151217.5WETL
2025-03-22 08:00:02FORECAST2025177-10844.52831.7338.129179.39154891280.8259846981.5059846987.859.355984698TT12.52815.52884441.1918500698179.1460893517280.838068298202121741151215WETL
2025-03-22 04:00:03FORECAST2025177-10846.88632.0939.488182.562902635240.7188980261.4488980268.119.558898026TT14.88615.88684442.4491010588380.7747921576510.899266946509461751141214WETL
2025-03-22 00:00:02FORECAST2025177-10846.25631.2838.768189.257059289380.4929136521.0229136528.739.752913652TT14.25611.25684445.0699130582984.2326229235940.884862817094371751141214WETL
2025-03-21 20:00:02FORECAST2025177-10842.20629.89436.05176.266686729960.4972443631.1672443638.759.917244363TT10.2066.20684439.9430847232477.5473098939240.758150677103931741141212WETL
2025-03-21 16:00:01FORECAST2025177-10844.16830.5637.364175.960164344340.4338585021.1238585028.639.753858502TT12.16810.16884439.8200568172677.3908094795010.826947138334821741141212WETL
2025-03-21 12:00:03FORECAST2025177-10844.0629.9336.995183.951691636690.9377957821.5977957828.7710.367795782TT12.069.0684442.9964918109281.4899540577360.823518318420741741151215WETL
2025-03-21 08:00:02FORECAST2025177-10844.88829.33637.112183.838971707350.9377957821.5877957828.8310.417795782TT12.88811.88884442.9521352516581.4318650602360.848714296686141741151215WETL
2025-03-21 04:00:04FORECAST2025177-10844.7829.26437.022183.624381367510.9720477691.6120477699.2210.832047769TT12.7811.7884442.8676564307781.3212994397790.845570406243621741151215WETL
2025-03-21 00:00:03FORECAST2025177-10845.7730.54238.156186.472758283590.4259844820.9959844829.2510.245984482TT13.7713.7784443.985248727982.7911539675180.872794842368621751141214WETL
2025-03-20 20:00:02FORECAST2025177-10844.49230.0237.256176.568947005810.4259844820.9759844829.2710.245984482TT12.49215.49284440.0643081991577.7016915135650.83697755353889174113129WETL
2025-03-20 16:00:02FORECAST2025177-10844.76230.0237.391176.724975604520.4555120570.9955120579.1710.165512057TT12.76214.76284440.1268480854877.78140649080.845042266319761741141212WETL
2025-03-20 12:00:03FORECAST2025177-10846.25634.30440.28180.719440188120.1200788050.5700788059.199.760078805TT14.25616.25684441.7195118272979.8273028975950.884862817094371751131210.5WETL
2025-03-20 08:00:03FORECAST2025177-10847.3936.12241.756179.998033064510.1212599080.5712599089.049.611259908TT15.3919.3984441.4330683911679.4570840400390.909810732136061751131210.5WETL
2025-03-20 04:00:04FORECAST2025177-10845.60834.46640.037181.622906000260.1444882670.6344882679.019.644488267TT13.60811.60884442.0775043871980.2914010241440.868583841716121751131210.5WETL
2025-03-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025177-10846.63435.16840.901184.387967858850.2228347660.5428347668.318.852834766TT14.63413.63484443.1680517590881.7148564838210.893670933099751751131210.5WETL
2025-03-19 20:00:03FORECAST2025177-10851.22439.34445.284180.099755908010.2129922410.5129922418.048.552992241TT19.22426.22484441.4734904723279.5092678739210.965116413805971751131210.5WETL
2025-03-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025177-10851.60239.86645.734180.155636150080.1838583670.4538583677.888.333858367TT19.60225.60284441.4956914208379.5379371454370.96857135869241175112127WETL
2025-03-19 12:00:03FORECAST2025177-10853.45642.29647.876179.428462989290.0614173560.2514173568.018.261417356TT21.45638.45684441.2065426120479.1650118016970.98168239236315175112127WETL
2025-03-19 08:00:03FORECAST2025177-10851.8942.29647.093179.14544202170.0614173560.2614173567.998.251417356TT19.8935.8984441.0938593782479.0199544113720.97101002995312175112127WETL
2025-03-19 04:00:04FORECAST2025177-10851.09842.13446.616182.67934253960.0200787510.1800787518.048.220078751TT19.09822.09884442.4950700076980.8347084660170.96389790214331175112127WETL
2025-03-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025177-10847.31835.61841.468185.319817394390.4511813460.6411813468.278.911181346TT15.31815.31884443.5338533917882.1956127187930.908356623520131751131210.5WETL
2025-03-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025177-10847.87635.67241.774184.803417306640.4468506350.6368506358.128.756850635TT15.87613.87684443.331245227981.9291291169260.919181933914171751131210.5WETL
2025-03-18 16:00:03FORECAST2025177-10848.30835.54641.927184.795125517050.468504190.668504198.078.73850419TT16.30816.30884443.3279897985781.9248515200490.926879414769751751131210.5WETL
2025-03-18 12:00:03FORECAST2025177-10843.98834.26839.128189.709189489670.5114175990.8914175998.779.661417599TT11.9889.98884445.2453240255684.4671295449550.82120878865299174113129WETL
2025-03-18 08:00:03FORECAST2025177-10843.98834.26839.128189.540424047730.5114175990.9514175998.649.591417599TT11.9887.98884445.1798724001884.3795817922460.82120878865299174113129WETL
2025-03-18 04:00:04FORECAST2025177-10845.33833.69239.515191.161467404090.6007877260.9907877268.889.870787726TT13.3389.33884445.8073971212685.2211962132970.861354242042361751141214WETL
2025-03-18 00:00:03FORECAST2025177-10847.40835.641.504194.682396201440.6196853741.1396853748.419.549685374TT15.4082.40884447.1615213740387.0544764701770.910171575777851751141214WETL
2025-03-17 20:00:02FORECAST2025177-10846.23833.87240.055194.063394906890.6196853741.1396853748.49.539685374TT14.238-3.76284446.9243343866486.7316535975760.884430851909781751141214WETL
2025-03-17 16:00:03FORECAST2025177-10844.47432.21638.345196.379547113580.488189241.488189248.5810.06818924TT12.474-6.52684447.8099207259887.9407094251340.836430398982961741141212WETL
2025-03-17 12:00:03FORECAST2025177-10842.76434.14238.453196.982748127410.0602362531.3402362538.319.650236253TT10.764-10.23684448.0397022528688.2560918199530.779090932195761741141212WETL
2025-03-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025177-10842.76434.14238.453196.218162530180.0602362531.3402362538.199.530236253TT10.764-9.23684447.7483836630287.8563651182170.779090932195761741141212WETL
2025-03-17 04:00:05FORECAST2025177-10842.85434.32238.588191.193687781060.1437008651.4037008658.329.723700865TT10.854-9.14684445.8198438336785.2379400285330.78236860270981741141212WETL
2025-03-17 00:00:03FORECAST2025177-10839.3837.2238.320.7625531992920.181102460.881102468.229.10110246TT7.38-12.6284363.435824407647.54585563879220.63765020305221731132215WETL
2025-03-16 20:00:03FORECAST2025177-10839.3837.2238.316.5106744160370.181102460.881102468.118.99110246TT7.38-8.6284360.889942013465.95853633260660.63765020305221731132215WETL
2025-03-16 16:00:03FORECAST2025177-10839.23636.98638.11117.4404974349790.1830709650.7830709658.269.043070965TT7.236-11.76484361.449040143846.30385105750420.63097788889891731132215WETL
2025-03-16 12:00:03FORECAST2025177-10835.25830.72232.9924.9086696941090.2287402811.0187402818.029.038740281TT3.258-13.74284365.892042420419.1138840283530.438161981436131721142216WETL
2025-03-16 08:00:04FORECAST2025177-10835.25830.72232.9923.5240638420680.2287402811.0187402817.999.008740281TT3.258-13.74284365.07465741028.58803954803880.438161981436131721142216WETL
2025-03-16 04:00:05FORECAST2025177-10828.00426.90627.45525.23862491243400.87.728.52TT-3.996-19.99684366.086403643499.23951742709990.14697440960806171113229WETL