MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, March 25, 2025

[ Monday, March 24, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, March 26, 2025 ]

DAY 176 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/26/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.85°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.90°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.87°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.998
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 30

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.95 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.02 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.97 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 165 in
SWE DAY: 83
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 434.63 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 71.60 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -109

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-26 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025176-10959.8499641.950.87498164.730641666670.00999999999999093.956.029.97TT27.8499629.8499683434.62696477567 71.5963787931320.9980187407607117 51151217.5WETL
2025-03-26 00:00:01FORECAST2025176-10851.85437.38244.618169.533938403.946.029.96TT19.85415.85484437.2186054544774.1233921244510.971455997575321651151217.5WETL
2025-03-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025176-10849.38836.542.944170.657233603.946.029.96TT17.38813.38884437.6764033599574.6926442094070.945374124596541651151217.5WETL
2025-03-25 08:00:01FORECAST2025176-10850.23436.55443.394170.607443203.946.029.96TT18.23414.23484437.6561389822974.6673948725520.955883886439721651151217.5WETL
2025-03-25 04:00:03FORECAST2025176-10850.3637.09443.727170.308777050.0015748043.9415748046.029.961574804TT18.3614.3684437.5345299418274.5159707115380.95729988793641651151217.5WETL
2025-03-25 00:00:02FORECAST2025176-10951.1736.08643.628177.0044480.0027559073.6727559076.029.692755907TT19.1719.1783439.6385528778577.8179793716630.96555029833811751151217.5WETL
2025-03-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025176-10950.07235.49242.782178.685277603.496.029.51TT18.07218.07283440.3127793469678.6774112084380.954008130544451751151217.5WETL
2025-03-24 16:00:01FORECAST2025176-10949.89235.4242.656178.707614403.496.029.51TT17.89217.89283440.3217198786878.6888441280230.951849619343621751151217.5WETL
2025-03-24 12:00:01FORECAST2025176-10949.71235.47442.593178.13827203.496.029.51TT17.71217.71283440.0936763978778.3975270316430.949611070357971751151217.5WETL
2025-03-24 08:00:02FORECAST2025176-10949.89234.80842.35178.17458160.0007874023.4607874026.029.480787402TT17.89217.89283440.1082296333678.416099673640.951849619343621751151217.5WETL
2025-03-24 04:00:04FORECAST2025176-10949.56835.5142.539178.373909066670.0023622063.8123622066.029.832362206TT17.56817.56883440.1880980872678.5180717804450.947761367645991751151217.5WETL
2025-03-24 00:00:02FORECAST2025176-10949.4636.08642.773187.429853062330.0074803193.3474803196.029.367480319TT17.4613.4683443.7743983333183.1765702724370.946339138957561751151217.5WETL
2025-03-23 20:00:01FORECAST2025176-10949.38835.43842.413179.1618880.0066929172.8366929176.028.856692917TT17.38813.38883440.5034374982178.921427532670.945374124596541751151217.5WETL
2025-03-23 16:00:01FORECAST2025176-10949.58635.79842.692179.11052320.0015748042.8215748046.028.841574804TT17.58614.58683440.4829011654978.8951228884040.947995478233661751151217.5WETL
2025-03-23 12:00:01FORECAST2025176-10949.94635.94242.944183.145155403780.0027559072.9127559076.028.932755907TT17.94614.94683442.0878683397380.9662513492040.95250549270341751151217.5WETL
2025-03-23 08:00:02FORECAST2025176-10949.67636.0542.863183.35714511130.003937012.973937016.028.99393701TT17.67613.67683442.1717433995581.0753485186290.949153593972911751151217.5WETL
2025-03-23 04:00:03FORECAST2025176-10949.24435.34842.296181.896436606460.0070866182.6370866186.028.657086618TT17.24413.24483441.5928873120680.3241726328230.943403106682691751151217.5WETL
2025-03-23 00:00:02FORECAST2025176-10948.36234.62841.495181.498430244770.0031496082.7131496086.018.723149608TT16.36210.36283441.4347909007680.1197216039160.930087802024011751151217.5WETL
2025-03-22 20:00:02FORECAST2025176-10948.3833.99841.189179.9135687194102.56.068.56TT16.389.3883440.80366318379.3065601478420.930381677617451751151217.5WETL
2025-03-22 16:00:02FORECAST2025176-10948.59635.27641.936180.1761762140402.396.068.45TT16.5968.59683440.9084151187279.4411922966860.933834656513481751151217.5WETL
2025-03-22 12:00:01FORECAST2025176-10948.50634.741.603180.404185466060.0011811032.4611811036.068.521181103TT16.5068.50683440.9993094517179.5581212127330.932412334295861751151217.5WETL
2025-03-22 08:00:02FORECAST2025176-10949.69435.3342.512180.401428112802.456.088.53TT17.6948.69483440.9982105660679.5567069813090.949382742471841751151217.5WETL
2025-03-22 04:00:03FORECAST2025176-10949.11835.13242.125182.4001412213402.76.148.84TT17.1187.11883441.7927402774480.5830582171660.941633036985991751151217.5WETL
2025-03-22 00:00:02FORECAST2025176-10949.17235.25842.215189.2879612451102.66.669.26TT17.1723.17283444.500094875284.1385167321860.942396873073981751151217.5WETL
2025-03-21 20:00:02FORECAST2025176-10949.136.3242.71175.9348297592902.676.759.42TT17.12.183439.2079987716377.2719844928050.941376670539891751151217.5WETL
2025-03-21 16:00:01FORECAST2025176-10948.95635.61842.287176.0861487413702.616.719.32TT16.9563.95683439.2689803564477.3491830125160.939293904670221751151217.5WETL
2025-03-21 12:00:03FORECAST2025176-10948.75835.0641.909182.9253610293902.646.799.43TT16.7582.75883442.0008576137180.8531664542860.936336471092171751151217.5WETL
2025-03-21 08:00:02FORECAST2025176-10949.42435.70842.566182.8363289684602.666.829.48TT17.4245.42483441.9655983713380.8073675365620.945858327632561751151217.5WETL
2025-03-21 04:00:04FORECAST2025176-10949.22635.63642.431183.1644966520902.677.199.86TT17.2265.22683442.0955226985780.9762038872260.943152851629661751151217.5WETL
2025-03-21 00:00:03FORECAST2025176-10950.4536.08643.268187.386436611660.0129921332.3029921337.529.822992133TT18.456.4583443.7574007661883.1541180496280.958288715312821751151217.5WETL
2025-03-20 20:00:02FORECAST2025176-10950.7236.33843.529177.440022494790.0129921332.3429921337.489.822992133TT18.728.7283439.8135500658178.040526217190.961144699184381751151217.5WETL
2025-03-20 16:00:02FORECAST2025176-10950.66636.33843.502177.587718238580.0066929172.3166929177.399.706692917TT18.6667.66683439.8728446303778.1160147930190.960586572285581751151217.5WETL
2025-03-20 12:00:03FORECAST2025176-10950.95435.49243.223181.9645937881202.467.189.64TT18.9547.95483441.6199447386880.3591938531050.963489540381151751151217.5WETL
2025-03-20 08:00:03FORECAST2025176-10951.27836.10443.691181.3757314645102.397.19.49TT19.27810.27883441.3860201519480.0567122632670.966544374773721751151217.5WETL
2025-03-20 04:00:03FORECAST2025176-10950.86435.43843.151182.8129556002602.477.039.5TT18.8643.86483441.9563405275880.7953448581220.962601716800961751151217.5WETL
2025-03-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025176-10951.49437.63444.564185.6962942588501.387.258.63TT19.4945.49483443.0942500886982.2809602488730.968461913148161751141214WETL
2025-03-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025176-10952.59238.3945.491181.8044375080101.197.158.34TT20.59212.59283441.5563575559780.2769052135470.976860007116491751141214WETL
2025-03-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025176-10952.64638.53445.59181.8965289500801.037.128.15TT20.64611.64683441.5929239743280.3242200798450.977219177234621751141214WETL
2025-03-19 12:00:03FORECAST2025176-10954.03239.7446.886181.4584549892901.117.098.2TT22.03223.03283441.4189030629380.0991921528660.984955931556341751141214WETL
2025-03-19 08:00:03FORECAST2025176-10954.10439.12846.616181.084807621701.137.068.19TT22.10422.10483441.2703219426979.9073513581570.985287166897461751141214WETL
2025-03-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025176-10951.63838.37245.005184.553665739601.177.038.2TT19.6388.63883442.6443083963681.6916297333170.969689236053361751141214WETL
2025-03-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025176-10952.57438.35445.464186.7346125943901.097.378.46TT20.5745.57483443.5019858132282.8171715056720.976739231698511751141214WETL
2025-03-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025176-10950.52238.98444.753186.2330709066401.097.228.31TT18.5223.52283443.3051703935182.5580832311770.959066394533881751141214WETL
2025-03-18 16:00:03FORECAST2025176-10950.7239.00244.861186.2407199170501.067.218.27TT18.725.7283443.3081739078982.5620334537180.961144699184381751141214WETL
2025-03-18 12:00:03FORECAST2025176-10948.9239.99244.456190.2793265323601.57.659.15TT16.923.9283444.8858803205584.652585691150.938764305778011751141214WETL
2025-03-18 08:00:03FORECAST2025176-10948.93839.68644.312190.1105610904201.547.549.08TT16.9381.93883444.8202745814984.5650319850820.939029553227031751151217.5WETL
2025-03-18 04:00:04FORECAST2025176-10949.13639.34444.24191.1351845820801.577.79.27TT17.1362.13683445.2181532787985.0968539062320.941888525040111751151217.5WETL
2025-03-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025176-10950.34237.02243.682196.1541650014401.517.428.93TT18.342-6.65883447.1522194303587.7107702309010.957099873398811751151217.5WETL
2025-03-17 20:00:02FORECAST2025176-10948.4736.35642.413195.108007150201.517.418.92TT16.47-11.5383446.7511135744587.1647194616440.931836857307911751151217.5WETL
2025-03-17 16:00:03FORECAST2025176-10947.49836.51842.008196.918215308260.2649607732.0449607737.549.584960773TT15.498-12.50283447.4444901110788.1099704421860.914834693121191751151217.5WETL
2025-03-17 12:00:03FORECAST2025176-10946.52634.80840.667197.835949138220.2251969722.4851969727.19.585196972TT14.526-15.47483447.7948000612888.5899092892810.894849348223541751151217.5WETL
2025-03-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025176-10946.52634.80840.667197.071363540990.2251969722.4851969726.989.465196972TT14.526-14.47483447.5030053976488.1900274624050.894849348223541751151217.5WETL
2025-03-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025176-10947.10235.74441.423192.028722793220.2468505272.5968505276.989.576850527TT15.102-13.89883445.5642850851385.5611405871730.907064988426491751151217.5WETL
2025-03-17 00:00:03FORECAST2025176-10947.26435.49241.37821.0233124223310.0259842662.3459842666.578.915984266TT15.264-13.73683362.698997472937.62513433913960.910304375113151751152235WETM
2025-03-16 20:00:03FORECAST2025176-10947.26435.49241.37816.7714336390760.0259842662.3459842666.468.805984266TT15.264-9.73683360.145114390726.04014988644140.910304375113151751152235WETM
2025-03-16 16:00:03FORECAST2025176-10947.19235.45641.32417.6647487472910.0952756422.2352756426.628.855275642TT15.192-12.80883360.683973498066.37139176901770.908875129405251751152235WETM
2025-03-16 12:00:03FORECAST2025176-10947.49833.65640.57723.1946707434410.1657481212.0257481216.788.805748121TT15.498-10.50283363.992619231118.44268895610810.914834693121191751152235WETM
2025-03-16 08:00:03FORECAST2025176-10948.09233.67440.88321.9659727171230.1669292241.9669292246.818.776929224TT16.092-10.90883363.261479015157.97939173722850.925564706317681751152235WETM
2025-03-16 04:00:04FORECAST2025176-10948.68629.0338.85825.2386249124340.1161417951.7961417956.728.516141795TT16.686-10.31483365.203836161149.2172426374530.935233761222771751152235WETL
2025-03-16 00:00:03FORECAST2025176-10935.13233.81834.47556.0218182960950.0751968912.8451968918.2711.115196891TT3.132-31.86883382.7050689217621.4398338321290.447050009275041721151210WETL
2025-03-15 20:00:03FORECAST2025176-10935.18633.834.49341.8315856820790.074803192.824803198.6711.49480319TT3.186-27.81483374.8072812087815.6787828981520.449647435354321721151210WETL
2025-03-15 16:00:03FORECAST2025176-10937.0435.09636.06840.4333080565310.6696854013.4696854018.311.769685401TT5.04-25.9683374.0135307760815.122604307180.539382070634171731151212.5WETL
2025-03-15 12:00:03FORECAST2025176-10929.53424.47627.00544.9850262059650.0464567182.8964567187.5810.476456718TT-2.466-27.46683376.5870583532316.9407786888470.20786707819537171115127.5WETL
2025-03-15 08:00:03FORECAST2025176-10930.43428.43629.43543.9270942192030.0464567182.8864567187.7610.646456718TT-1.566-16.56683375.9915581514616.5162166005440.2405974583517171115127.5WETL
2025-03-15 04:00:04FORECAST2025176-10929.91229.78629.84950.6766866065680.1629922142.9329922148.1411.072992214TT-2.088-26.08883379.7635230346719.2451570414340.22128276805902171115127.5WETL